Reiss: Belichick has lengthy to-do list

[mgteich]

Welker was a trade.

I am not saying that Belichick has failed in his major free agent signings. I'm just saying that Belichick might be gunshy since he took risks with big money and it hasn't worked out in a long time. He has done much better with trades (Welker, Moss and Dillon) and in lower level free agent acquisitions like Bodden.

It depends on how you define "high profile". Welker would be a successful signing, and that was 2007. But, again, it depends on your definition. If you mean the very top of the list, he hasn't signed many of those players at all, so there's really no pattern to be found. Colvin was injured about 3 seconds after signing, but do you hold that against other free agents?

 

[Deus Irae]

Welker was a trade.

I am not saying that Belichick has failed in his major free agent signings. I'm just saying that Belichick might be gunshy since he took risks with big money and it hasn't worked out in a long time. He has done much better with trades (Welker, Moss and Dillon) and in lower level free agent acquisitions like Bodden.

Welker was a "trade" because the Patriots didn't want the hassle of dealing with poison pill clauses. However, that's part of the "how you define" aspect, and I've got no gripe with saying Welker doesn't count. However, that really leaves only Colvin and Thomas as significant big money free agents that come quickly to mind. Harrison was a "left for dead" situation.

As I noted earlier, I hope the Thomas situation doesn't sour Belichick on the "big ticket" free agent concept. I'm on board with being judicious in its use, but I don't want it completely off the table.

 

[Patspsycho]

Well, they're not a public company so there's no financial info you can attach to it. But when they first built it, there were analysts in the Globe saying it would be a huge financial risk for the Krafts. Since then, the traffic hasn't been as high as they would have liked, and the last time I was there (a few months ago), about 1/3 of the storefronts were still empty. PFW in Progress has also dropped a few hints here and there as to how it is doing.

That's too bad.. I always did think its distance from 95/495 didn't really justify it. Bass pro shop and showcase cinemas are its flagships (never empty) and hopefully will sustain it. The restaurant/clubs seem to thrive during summer nights, but as for retail, everyone goes to the Wrentham Outlet Mall that's about 15 minutes southwest, off 495 for Plainville.

 

[Jimke]

They're having problems with Patriot Place, which was a bigger investment than the stadium. I wouldn't totally dismiss that.

Bob Kraft may be unwilling to invest in any big name free agents

including Brady, Wilfork, Bodden, and Mankins until the labor situation

is resolved. This could impact the 2010 season.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Reiss has a great finger on the pulse.. If Brady is not resigined, by training camp or if this offseason has been less than fantastic.. there have to be huge finnacial concerns.. Plus 2011 , the uncertanity, this is not 2003 or even 2007 anymore.. This may not be a quick fix , like some hope and think..But we are just going to have to wait and see.. People laughed at me when Id say Patriot Place might be a reason we did not win the super bowl, it may not be such a dumb thing...

Brady is underpaid.. Its time to pay him...

 

[sg14]

Agreed but it's the mental toughness on this team that is lacking which is most disturbing.

Was thinking the same thing,

this is the year to return to 2001, get those older hungry vets with the right attitude, like Willie, Byron Cox , Anthoney Pleasant used to bring to the field.

With a nice new class of draftees,,,,

 

[patsfan-1982]

i do agree that the pats may not sign any big time FA in 2010 but i don't think it has anything to do with AD not playing good


they have only signed 2 big name FA in the BB era AD and rosie colvin so even if there is no cap. this year i just hope they sign some of there own FA and have a good draft

 

[mgteich]

If we extend Brady, Wilfork, Bodden, and Mankins, I would be more than happy with signing no big-splash free agents.

i do agree that the pats may not sign any big time FA in 2010 but i don't think it has anything to do with AD not playing good


they have only signed 2 big name FA in the BB era AD and rosie colvin so even if there is no cap. this year i just hope they sign some of there own FA and have a good draft

 

[skinnydog]

If this year is uncapped, couldn't they sign Brady to a new contract that pays him something 25-30 million in salary for 2010 then another 10 million a year for 5 years. With this year being uncapped, it doesn't matter how high this year's salary is and with no bonus, there's nothing to affect caps in years after 2010.

In effect isn't this a great year to sign free agents and pay without ever paying a bonus and instead just pay a big salary in 2010.

 

[mgteich]

This has been covered in other posts. If this year's compsnastion is to not affect future cap, then it cannot be more than double next years salary. After than the contract cnac increase by 30% each year. So in order to structure a contract properly, 1/3 of a four year contract is in the first year.

EXAMPLE OF A $60M four year contract for Brady
Year 1 $20 M
Year 2 $10 M
Year 3 $13 M
year 4 $16.9M
This is is $100K short. This can be added to the workout bonuses to make it work.

I suspect that Brady wants something more like an $78M total for 4 years or
Year 1 $26M
Year 2 $13M
Year 3 $16.9M
Year 4 $21.97M
This is is $130K short. This can be added to the workout bonuses to make it work.

I think that the second set of numbers is quite reasonable. It is the equivalent of $10M, $13M, $17M, and $22M with a $16M bonus. A fifth year could be added at $27M to make the total deal be worth $105M over 5 years.

If this year is uncapped, couldn't they sign Brady to a new contract that pays him something 25-30 million in salary for 2010 then another 10 million a year for 5 years. With this year being uncapped, it doesn't matter how high this year's salary is and with no bonus, there's nothing to affect caps in years after 2010.

In effect isn't this a great year to sign free agents and pay without ever paying a bonus and instead just pay a big salary in 2010.

 

[blackglass3]

Was thinking the same thing,

this is the year to return to 2001, get those older hungry vets with the right attitude, like Willie, Byron Cox , Anthoney Pleasant used to bring to the field.

With a nice new class of draftees,,,,

The thing is, who ARE the older hungry vets these days?

 

[pats1]

The thing is, who ARE the older hungry vets these days?

That's not the only appealing quality in those players from 2001.

The other one is that they were cheap. Instead of over-paying for big-name FAs, the Pats picked up those cheaper guys, more of them.

That was when the salary cap was $64M and teams got in "cap hell." Well, guess what? The cap is now $128M, soon to be non-existent. Finding "cheap" guys is no longer a necessity. I talked about this a few days ago, and it was discussed on PFW in Progress today. The Patriots' old approach of finding cheap, hungry FAs no longer puts them a step ahead of other organizations, because those teams can sign high-priced FAs and not be penalized, even before this uncapped season.

So, the thing is, who ARE the teams in cap hell these days? (Hint: There aren't any)

 

[Frezo]

The thing is, who ARE the older hungry vets these days?

Something else to consider is with the looming possibility of no football in 2011, any older FAs will be 2 years older the next time they see the field after this season. Generally speaking the jump from 34 to 36 years old is likely more difficult to overcome than from say 24 to 26. To play it safe a GM hiring a FA at the start of 2010 would need to be confident that player would still be productive in 2012 in order to see value from the deal. ...just in case.