Predict the Pats' number of wins

[Ochmed Jones]

I am at 4 and 13. Based on our schedule and the offensive offensive line!

I feel bad for the defense!!! They are getting a lot of minutes on the field this year

 

[sb1]

I am at 4 and 13. Based on our schedule and the offensive offensive line!

I feel bad for the defense!!! They are getting a lot of minutes on the field this year

4-13 will get us a new HC and GM for sure and very likely a new QB. If they’re that bad they need to go all the way down as much as they can and #CrashForCaleb

 

[Salsalife]

4-13 will get us a new HC and GM for sure and very likely a new QB. If they’re that bad they need to go all the way down as much as they can and #CrashForCaleb

Oh man, the problem is you could be right. Total wasted season...

 

[BTTA]

I went with more than 10 just to troll the pessimists. Triggered?

 

[BTTA]

4-13 will get us a new HC and GM for sure and very likely a new QB. If they’re that bad they need to go all the way down as much as they can and #CrashForCaleb

The problem with a new QB is that mean three more years of development before playoff ready, which means that most of the young talent that's been accumulated in the past three years is off the team. Total do over.

 

[203Pat]

I think 7-9 wins so I chose 8. With this schedule and our pop gun offense I don’t think we can get over the hump and into the playoffs.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

My god, just say you didn’t realize he was only 26

I'm always surprised at his age feels like he's been in the league since 2010

 

[jdlboot14]

Can we win game 1?
EVERYBODY has cemented this as a loss since the schedule came out.
I'm not so pessimistic. We all know a SB loser tends to struggle coming out of the gates the next season.
I think we match up okay against them, and it's Brady day at the stadium.
I don't think the Eagles are going to score over 25 on us.
So I think we have a chance, which would put the NFL on notice.

 

[sb1]

Can we win game 1?
EVERYBODY has cemented this as a loss since the schedule came out.
I'm not so pessimistic. We all know a SB loser tends to struggle coming out of the gates the next season.
I think we match up okay against them, and it's Brady day at the stadium.
I don't think the Eagles are going to score over 25 on us.
So I think we have a chance, which would put the NFL on notice.

I’m looking forward to seeing BB’s scheme to solve that Hurts QB sneak scrum. I’m sure they’re studying what they can and can’t do on defense to respond to that.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I am at 4 and 13. Based on our schedule and the offensive offensive line!

I feel bad for the defense!!! They are getting a lot of minutes on the field this year

Given the roster, division and schedule, 4 wins wouldn’t shock me.

 

[Ivan]

Tough call, but I’m going to go the optimistic route and say 10 wins.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Can we win game 1?
EVERYBODY has cemented this as a loss since the schedule came out.
I'm not so pessimistic. We all know a SB loser tends to struggle coming out of the gates the next season.
I think we match up okay against them, and it's Brady day at the stadium.
I don't think the Eagles are going to score over 25 on us.
So I think we have a chance, which would put the NFL on notice.

The defense should keep us in most of the games, if the O-line exceeds expectations we should be ok. That's the big question mark heading into week 1, no one knows what the O-line is gonna be.

 

[jdlboot14]

The defense should keep us in most of the games, if the O-line exceeds expectations we should be ok. That's the big question mark heading into week 1, no one knows what the O-line is gonna be.

I'm pretty confident when we see the offense trot on to the field on 9/10 it'll be: Brown, Strange, Andrews, Onwenu, Reiff/Anderson
You don't forget chemistry, you only need to knock the rust off.
As long as they're all healthy, I think we'll be okay.

 

[ivanvamp]

9 wins. They'll be better than last year, but the division and schedule are more difficult. So you won't see much of an improvement in the standings. Lots of fun football games coming up this year.

 

[PScottman]

Of course, this whole practice is essentially meaningless right now and we just do it for fun. There’s no way of knowing which team gets killed with injuries this season, or which team only looks good on paper but doesn’t have the results (something that happens every season).

Truer words have never been spoken.

 

[PScottman]

I hate, hate, hate this, but I don't see more than 5-6 wins because even the very limited data we have about this team isn't overly positive, and those positives unfortunately are reliant upon the negatives being less impactful. Case in point is the defense being pretty solid, but if the offense leaves them on the field all game it doesn't matter the skill levels with today's rules and emphasis on the offense scoring.

Another example, while I think Gonzalez will be good, I don't think he'll be GREAT in his rookie season when he likely has to be for the defense to go from good to suffocating (which they pretty much have to be with this offense).

The special teams lost at least two games last year and while they could be better (because injuries were a large part of those miscues) they're also two rookies which have to not necessarily be GREAT, but extremely consistent - which is a tough ask for rookies.

Another aspect - the strength of the defense is in the secondary and the pass rush (we suspect). Yet that relies upon being in third and long or third and mid which if they're not as stout vs the run as last year (and Guy has trended negatively the past three years and Godchaux is a middle of the road guy and Barmore has injury history) they won't be able to employ those strengths as much to capitalize.

All that and I haven't even gotten to the offensive line yet. Cohesion is not "riding a bike" on the OL...its repetition. In game repetition. This very same OL core has been not only inconsistent, but injury prone the last three years. How many games have the core played together for more than two straight games in that timeframe? Add that to the inconsistency...and while I do think Mac CAN trend upward, if he is hit quickly in game one (three and out with one BIG hard sack in the opening series especially if its blind side or causes a turnover), all historic data says he'll start rushing progressions, panicking/holding the ball, turning his back to the line, and throwing INTs. And that usually takes him a minimum of two quarters to a game or two to correct (and that's assuming the protection improves).

And whoever said the words about a less than six win season being a death knell for the coaching staff - spot on. And that will absolutely mean a crash and burn because there's 1) no one to replace BB right now and 2) it takes a couple seasons to get the new regimes "guys" drafted, hired, etc.

This sucks...I want the team to succeed, and if a few of the above go in the other direction they absolutely can, but there are just A LOT of variables that HAVE to go not just right, but perfect for that to happen and "Vegas don't take them odds".

 

[Dagg]

I picked 7 but ideally mac gets hurt and we tank for Caleb only way to turn this around quickly.

 

[archstanton543]

And whoever said the words about a less than six win season being a death knell for the coaching staff - spot on. And that will absolutely mean a crash and burn because there's 1) no one to replace BB right now and 2) it takes a couple seasons to get the new regimes "guys" drafted, hired, etc.

Mayo is going to replace BB.

Or the Krafts move on from the Belichicks. There are always coaching replacements out there. There are tons of college football teams out there with coaches who would kill for a shot at the NFL. It's all about finding the right guy.

 

[Ring 6]

I am at 4 and 13. Based on our schedule and the offensive offensive line!

I feel bad for the defense!!! They are getting a lot of minutes on the field this year

I hate, hate, hate this, but I don't see more than 5-6 wins because even the very limited data we have about this team isn't overly positive, and those positives unfortunately are reliant upon the negatives being less impactful. Case in point is the defense being pretty solid, but if the offense leaves them on the field all game it doesn't matter the skill levels with today's rules and emphasis on the offense scoring.

Another example, while I think Gonzalez will be good, I don't think he'll be GREAT in his rookie season when he likely has to be for the defense to go from good to suffocating (which they pretty much have to be with this offense).

The special teams lost at least two games last year and while they could be better (because injuries were a large part of those miscues) they're also two rookies which have to not necessarily be GREAT, but extremely consistent - which is a tough ask for rookies.

Another aspect - the strength of the defense is in the secondary and the pass rush (we suspect). Yet that relies upon being in third and long or third and mid which if they're not as stout vs the run as last year (and Guy has trended negatively the past three years and Godchaux is a middle of the road guy and Barmore has injury history) they won't be able to employ those strengths as much to capitalize.

All that and I haven't even gotten to the offensive line yet. Cohesion is not "riding a bike" on the OL...its repetition. In game repetition. This very same OL core has been not only inconsistent, but injury prone the last three years. How many games have the core played together for more than two straight games in that timeframe? Add that to the inconsistency...and while I do think Mac CAN trend upward, if he is hit quickly in game one (three and out with one BIG hard sack in the opening series especially if its blind side or causes a turnover), all historic data says he'll start rushing progressions, panicking/holding the ball, turning his back to the line, and throwing INTs. And that usually takes him a minimum of two quarters to a game or two to correct (and that's assuming the protection improves).

And whoever said the words about a less than six win season being a death knell for the coaching staff - spot on. And that will absolutely mean a crash and burn because there's 1) no one to replace BB right now and 2) it takes a couple seasons to get the new regimes "guys" drafted, hired, etc.

This sucks...I want the team to succeed, and if a few of the above go in the other direction they absolutely can, but there are just A LOT of variables that HAVE to go not just right, but perfect for that to happen and "Vegas don't take them odds".

So an 8-9 team that lost a couple of fluky games and had a QB injury and coaching issues will slide to 4-6 wins?
What parts of the team do you think are worse than last year?

 

[Ring 6]

Mayo is going to replace BB.

Or the Krafts move on from the Belichicks. There are always coaching replacements out there. There are tons of college football teams out there with coaches who would kill for a shot at the NFL. It's all about finding the right guy.

It is very rare that in house replacements exist in the NFL and they usually don’t succeed. So I’m not sure why this is even a discussion.