Predict the Pats' number of wins

[WinstonSmith]

Until they prove otherwise, they can't beat teams .500 and above.

The roster shouldn't give you much confidence as they are pretty much the same team.

I'm not going to get involved in the argument other than to point out that, if by "they are pretty much the same team", you mean that a team with 11 rookies; critical coaching changes, and close to a 38% turnover rate is basically the same team as it was the year before...then can we assume that you're not using the scientifically percise version of "pretty much"?

 

[Ring 6]

Never say "It can't get any worse". It always can.

Not reasonably.

 

[Ring 6]

Like I said, it's the complementary of the whole. So many things have to go right...starting with an OL that hasn't been "right" for three seasons now that has cascading effects on the rest of the squad from QB (quick pressure is demonstrably Jones' major flaw that he doesn't compensate well for) to defense (any defense on the field either too long or in horrible field position because of said offense will be disadvantaged).

And while I didn't mention that they might not have gotten "worse" from an on paper talent perspective (and I don't believe they did), the rest of the division didn't either - and in fact likely improved in ways that further exacerbate the Pats OL and defense likely being on the field significant portions of games.

This is all guessing as has been said. My guesses carry no more or less weight than any others (and are just total gut frankly) because it's literally no different than picking lottery numbers. Josh Allen tears an ACL tomorrow that no one predicted and the whole landscape of everything changes. Trent Brown gets 'religion' and suddenly is as motivated as Tom Brady was...same thing.

We just don't know, so we make unsubstantiated attempts to organize the chaos that is football.

They have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
They are strong at RB, stronger at receiver and TE than they have been in years.
They have a Qb who led the #6 scoring offense in the NFL as a rookie with less talent around him.
A competent offense last year would have produced 11 wins. The offensive coaching staff alone cost them at least that.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I'm not going to get involved in the argument other than to point out that, if by "they are pretty much the same team", you mean that a team with 11 rookies; critical coaching changes, and close to a 38% turnover rate is basically the same team as it was the year before...then can we assume that you're not using the scientifically precise version of "pretty much"?

"Pretty much" means "pretty much"". Is that hard to understand?

Critical coaching changes? You are stumbling over details. You can't see the forest for the trees. 38% turnover rate? But it is basically the same team, except for FAs, rookies, and 38% of the team. What more do you need to know? Brady will be back in Week 4.

Scientific precision, like a nuclear scientist called Matt Patricia? Well we finally agree, we will not have rocket science precision this year, just regular old screens, Stevenson breaking tackles, and the occasional jump ball to Parker. Oh well, I hope we can survive.

 

[WinstonSmith]

"Pretty much" means "pretty much"". Is that hard to understand?

Critical coaching changes? You are stumbling over details. You can't see the forest for the trees. 38% turnover rate? But it is basically the same team, except for FAs, rookies, and 38% of the team. What more do you need to know? Brady will be back in Week 4.

Scientific precision, like a nuclear scientist called Matt Patricia? Well we finally agree, we will not have rocket science precision this year, just regular old screens, Stevenson breaking tackles, and the occasional jump ball to Parker. Oh well, I hope we can survive.

I probably went a bit overboard with the language, but NFL teams can and do change dramatically from year to year, and this team is pretty much not the same team that it was last year. By the way, you're right, it's the same team except for all of the changes.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I probably went a bit overboard with the language, but NFL teams can and do change dramatically from year to year, and this team is pretty much not the same team that it was last year. By the way, you're right, it's the same team except for all of the changes.

You didn't go overboard, not even a little bit. The Pats 2023 team is not the same team as last year, almost 40% different. Will it be a good team? We will see. Mac is in his 3rd year and should blossom - we will see.

 

[PScottman]

They have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
They are strong at RB, stronger at receiver and TE than they have been in years.
They have a Qb who led the #6 scoring offense in the NFL as a rookie with less talent around him.
A competent offense last year would have produced 11 wins. The offensive coaching staff alone cost them at least that.

As nothing has happened to either certify or refute my or your statements yet - they remain conjecture versus fact.

If you add the word "potentially" to the statements "one of the best defenses in the NFL" or "strong at RB...", etc - sure, but the cliche stands "that's why they play the games". Past performance is no measure of future success as another old saying goes.

However I also know this is Andy Johnson to which I am replying. There is no last word unless it's yours. So you win - as it is said so it shall be written because I hope that is the case - I will be ecstatic with 11 wins for the Pats.

 

[jdlboot14]

It can't be overstated. Even if they rolled out the exact same lineup as last year, we'd be 3-4 games better just based on BOB being an actual offensive coach. All the OL problems last year wasn't because these guys forgot how to play, it was the massive change in scheme that MP tried to install, and his lack of flexibility and innovation on offense.
Now, clearly the Jets got better, but I think the Fins stayed equal, and the Bills will potentially slide a bit.
Nearly every game will be a battle, but I think we have a chance to be in almost every game.
It's going to be about the team leadership and how quick this new team can develop mental toughness.
Fact is, they've gotten used to losing the last 3.5 years.
I think BOB is the new blood they need, and he might be the emotional leader of this team (and maybe THE leader before long)

 

[Thelonious]

Almost 40% of respondents see 10 wins or more. I find that surprising, particularly given how difficult the schedule is and the improvement in the division. Maybe I haven't assimilated the 17-game schedule yet. "Three games over .500" doesn't sound quite so wildly optimistic. But the uncertaintly makes for an interesting season, more interesting than last year's poop show. Maybe my 8-win prediction is low. We'll see.

 

[italian pat patriot]

Nove 9

 

[raduray]

The Athletic published expected number of wins projections for each team based on computer simulations. Their prediction is that the Patriots win 6.9 games.

NFL win total projections for all 32 teams: Experts react to our model

We ran 10,000 simulations to predict wins for every NFL team. Do our beat writers agree with the results?

theathletic.com

 

[archstanton543]

The Athletic published expected number of wins projections for each team based on computer simulations. Their prediction is that the Patriots win 6.9 games.

NFL win total projections for all 32 teams: Experts react to our model

We ran 10,000 simulations to predict wins for every NFL team. Do our beat writers agree with the results?

theathletic.com

Nice!

 

[40yrpatsfan]

2-4 vs AFC east, beating Jet & Phins once apiece
3-1 vs AFC west, beating LV-Denv-LAC, losing to KC
2-2 vs NFC east, beating Wash and @NYG, losing to Phil & Dal
3-0 vs others: Saints, Colts, @Steelers
10-7.

The key wins we need to get to 10 are:
- beat the Jets at home
- beat the Phins at home
- win @ Denver
- win @ Giants
- win @ Steelers

The upset opportunities are:
- beat the Bills once
- upset either the Jets or Phins away
- upset either Philly or KC at home
- upset Dallas on the road

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I hate pre-season predicting because the teams you play from September to December are never the same as the teams we think we see in August. But, here goes.

The Division. With some luck, they go 3-3, but most likely 2-4 with one W each v. Jests and MIA.
So, that means, their best case is 3-3 in the AFCE, meaning they still have to go 6-5 against a loaded schedule. That's tough but doable.

However, I think it's more likely they go 2-4 in the Division with one win each over MIA and NYJ. That requires 7-4 against some pretty good and highly motivated teams to get to 9 wins.

Most likely? 8--9.
Bookmark this if I'm wrong. I hope I am. No one's played a meaningful down yet.

 

[IcyPatriot]

 

[goheels22002]

I think there have been rumors about this for some time, so it's not a recent "hot take." While I understand the appeal of veteran players, older is older, and eventually time will have its way. (I have the CT scans to prove this in my own woeful case, lol.) I suspect JJSS will not make it through the whole season, but then after all the younger players are supposed to pass such oldsters by, assuming you have chosen them wisely. (That last clause offers a little cause for concern, eh, given the team's recent history?)

Smith-Schuster is 26, Bourne is 28, and Devante Parker is 30. All three are veterans in their prime. Hunter Henry is 28 and Mike Gesicki is 27. Age is not an issue with this group. Add 28-year-old Zeke Elliott and 25-year-old Rhamondre Stephenson, and you have veteran pass catchers all over the place.

In so many ways, Bill O'Brien can keep defenses honest and punish overly aggressive blitzes. The thing I like about this group is what it can do in the Red Zone on the ground and through the air. 2022 was maddening because the Patriots didn't even try to throw the ball into the end zone.

Looking at that group of players as a unit suggests to me that more than one will have a breakout year.

 

[Thelonious]

Smith-Schuster is 26, Bourne is 28, and Devante Parker is 30. All three are veterans in their prime. Hunter Henry is 28 and Mike Gesicki is 27. Age is not an issue with this group. Add 28-year-old Zeke Elliott and 25-year-old Rhamondre Stephenson, and you have veteran pass catchers all over the place.

In so many ways, Bill O'Brien can keep defenses honest and punish overly aggressive blitzes. The thing I like about this group is what it can do in the Red Zone on the ground and through the air. 2022 was maddening because the Patriots didn't even try to throw the ball into the end zone.

Looking at that group of players as a unit suggests to me that more than one will have a breakout year.

Chronological age is not the issue. Their present medical condition and history of injury is. But this is quite simple, isn't it? I say neither Parker and S-S will last the season as reliable starters. You say they will. We shall see. Additionally, I made no reference to age even by implication re Elliott, Stephenson, Henry, or Gesicki; so I dont know with whom exactly you are so assiduously disagreeing, but it ain't me. The fact is we are thin both at RB and TE. This is a matter that has been under discussion for weeks.

 

[venecol]

8-9

 

[Ring 6]

Predicting more wins by blindly saying “well they should be better than last year” is a fools game when it’s ignoring the other 31 and specifically everyone on their schedule, as well as every nuance of the team itself.

But predicting less by blindly saying “but the schedule” while ignoring areas the team has improved isn’t a fools game?

 

[sb1]

The Athletic published expected number of wins projections for each team based on computer simulations. Their prediction is that the Patriots win 6.9 games.

NFL win total projections for all 32 teams: Experts react to our model

We ran 10,000 simulations to predict wins for every NFL team. Do our beat writers agree with the results?

theathletic.com

Less than 7 wins guarantees a last place schedule in 2024, with AFC South and NFC West opponents. In other words a much easier schedule than they have this year. Also might guarantee us a top 10 draft pick. We'll likely have lots of cap room to use to improve the team. 2024 could be our window opening if Mac shows something this year.