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Predict the bust

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by ay-yo, Jul 31, 2011.

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  1. ay-yo

    ay-yo Rookie

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    Statistically speaking we should expect at least one of Vereen, Ridley or Dowling to bust. I'm not particularly down on any of these players but recognize that I'd be betting against the odds to expect all three to be quality players. I'm interested in seeing if anybody has actual reasons for expecting a guy to be bad. So who do you expect to bust?

    I'll pick Dowling. I don't like drafting guys with injury histories. Sometimes it can land you an elite talent later in the draft when said player should have gone earlier (see Gronkowski, Rob) but often times it doesn't work out. Dowling's injury history isn't terrible but I really have no reason to predict any of these guys busts so I went w/ Ras. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

    Side note: Let's stick to the 3 guys I mentioned. All 3 should see some PT this year. I leave out Solder because there has already been a lot of discussion on him since the draft. What makes Mallet a bust is a whole different topic so we'll leave him out. The rest of the guys were picked so low I'm not expecting much although Cannon and Smith show promise.
  2. rookBoston

    rookBoston Rookie

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    I don't think any of those three will bust. They may not become all-pros, but they wont flame out either.

    I actually think Dowling could be a big addition to the secondary. But what is that based on? College reports, a little film and the fact that BB thought highly enough of him to take him instead of any one of the million trade offers he had for the #33 pick. This time last year, everyone was pretty unsure whether BB lost his mind trading down for McCourty, who almost no one had in the first round.

    Of the draft class, I think the bust is pretty likely to be Mallett, but for where we got him it's worth a shot.
  3. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Rookie

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    I predict no busts this season. I have high hopes for those 3. Especially for Ridley.
  4. gohogs14

    gohogs14 Rookie

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    Why do you think mallett will bust?

    I dont think any of them will fwiw...they are surrounded by good coaching and talent
  5. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

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    No Jersey Selected

    I predict Ridley, esp. when his draft position, relative to his talent, is taken under consideration.

    Bill ignored Sam Acho, among others, to take someone who should've been drafted 2 full rounds later.

    Meanwhile, we're still stuck with 3rd-string crap at OLB, and Wendell/OBurger as our backup C/Gs.
  6. Dobbo

    Dobbo Rookie

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    I like the look of all three of them. Would not be suprised if Ras-I ends up at Safety and i think we should hold fire on Mallett for 2/3 seasons.

    Hopefully he should be top notch trade bait...
  7. NEGoldenAge

    NEGoldenAge Banned

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    How do you like your crow? I want to be prepared come season's end.
  8. Criptonite

    Criptonite Rookie

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    I agree. Of the three, I'd say Ridley is most likely to bust. I really liked Dowling and Vereen coming into the draft. Ridley looked extremely average. I had him rated as a 6th rounder. He didn't have a big body of work though. So I assume from his high draft position that BB saw something special about him that didn't come across through his limited number of carries. I watched Ridley in camp on Sunday and he again looked average, except in receiving where he was poor.
  9. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree with rook - also on Mallett.
  10. Frick

    Frick Rookie

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    A bust can be more than just on field production IMHO. Solder at pick #17!!!. Could be thanking his lucky stars to be drafted by the Pats and want to get on the field as soon as posible, but no Mister High Ceiling is holding out for a contract that is more than he is worth.

    Take his salary and Light's, compared to what other OT'S drafed in the top twenty are getting. Not only that but Gnat won't be ready to start for a year or two.By then, guys that owned him in college , like A. Smith and that HOFER B. Reed better watch out.

    I predict a mediocre year or two then it's contract time and we all know Bill stays with his 1st rounders worthy or not. With recievers that extends to the 2nd round. And further that Vollmer will end up on the left side sooner than later. Didn't like the pick ,don't like the player.
  11. D-Money

    D-Money Rookie

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    I think Dowling will impress.I am worried about the RBs we picked up.Thats my worry
  12. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    I'd have to go with Dowling based on his injury history. Given his draft status he has the highest expectations to meet.

    I think we are extremely spoiled by McCourty and to expect anywhere near the same sort of production from Dowling would be foolish.

    I expect Vareen and Ridley to live up to the expectations of 3 round backs.
  13. D-Money

    D-Money Rookie

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    Those RBs could have been taken later on during the draft but BB picked them.They better be productive if u taking them that high!!!Especially Vereen!
  14. Sfpat

    Sfpat Rookie

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  15. sg14

    sg14 Rookie

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    Patriots.com radio was saying Dowling looked slow, very slow, but it was his first day, so cut him some slack, too early to say.

    Remember Ridley from my casual saturday afternoons on the couch, and hoped that the Pats picked him up, stuck his nose into the pile and made yards no matter what.

    Predict that Vereen will be the disappointed due to being compared to Ridley.

    Totally random observation, but going by what I saw with my own eyes.
  16. Criptonite

    Criptonite Rookie

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    That's interesting. I remember Dowling looking a tad slow when I was checking him out pre-draft. I figured he was a 4.5 guy, but then he busted out a 4.40 at the combine and a sub 4.4 at his pro day.
  17. BillBelichickFan79

    BillBelichickFan79 Rookie

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    I think Vereen and Ridley will be solid additions for this team and will fill their roles well. I think Vereen may exceed a lot of fans' expectations of him being only a Kevin-Faulk-type of back.

    I think Dowling will outplay his draft status of a 2nd rounder. I think he's got the skill set to become a pretty elite press corner in the NFL who can also come up and fill vs the run. He's going to struggle when playing off or when asked to cover elite route runners who can sink their hips and cut better than him, just like other "big" corners often do, but I think he could be an excellent physical press corner vs big WR's like V-Jax, Plax, Marshall, etc., while also having the versatility to cover "move" TE's like Dallas Clark or Antonio Gates.

    The one that I actually think could be the "bust" of the group is Solder. I only saw him play 3-4 times, so I don't have a great feel for him, but I felt like he was always overrated due to his freakish size. I know he's a converted TE and still needs some work because he's considered raw at this point, but I just wasn't blown away when I watched him play.

    He got beat badly to the outside by speed rushers a few times and to the inside by stunting defensive lineman too much for my liking. He seemed like he let a lot of guys get under him and into his pads because he's so tall, and he wasn't that impressive as a run blocker because he didn't seem to be able to blow people off the ball despite his size. I know he's always been considered a great athlete, but I don't know, he looked less athletic than I'd hope for a LT to be.

    I think with some work he could turn into a pretty solid tackle, but I don't know if he'll ever live up to his draft status of #17 overall. I think he could be a good player, but I don't see him becoming a top flight tackle. So I guess while that's not a true bust because I think he will be a solid player, it's a bust in terms of not living up to his draft position.

    Hopefully, I'm wrong. I'll be glad to admit it.
  18. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Dowling and ridley
  19. JerseyDevil26

    JerseyDevil26 Rookie

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    I don't think Dowling will be anything like Butler became. Dowling should impress, I'm not too concerned. I don't think it's fair to call a guy a bust based on injury but it is what it is.
  20. bccrps

    bccrps Rookie

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    Kiper had Dowling rated the 20th best overall draft prospect coming into last season. The guy is a definite talent. Played in only 5 games and is just now getting back into the swing of things. He looks like a receiver going after the ball. I think he'll be excellent; it'll simply take more weeks than we would've preferred.
    Early on in camp, I don't get the impression that any of these guys will bust, though of course some will.

    Solder came back strong after a rough couple first days. He's been running with the 1st team of late. Tons of room to add weight and he still has those college TE feet.
    I read Vereen looked great on the Gillette Stadium turf, showing speed, cutting ability and receiving skills. He's sidelined at the moment.
    Ridley has been very good in all aspects; power running, blocking, etc..
    Maybe THE rookie surprise in camp to this point.
    Mallett is over throwing too many WR's but what the heck; he's not playing this season anyway.
    I've even heard reports of Markell Carter running some sets with the 1st team. It's also impossible for a 6th round pick to be considered a "bust."

    Lots to like at this point. If it's 2/3 as good as last years class, it'll be a rousing success.
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