Does that get paid out for the 2012 salary cap or the 2013 cap?
Also i think money can be easily saved through players like:
Larsen, Spencer LB $750,000
Fells, Daniel TE $991,166
Not to mention the 2-3 other players that could be cut due to the rookie pool coming in. So it's not like the Rookie pool is just tacked on it means for those 3-6 picks that's 3-6 vets that might not have a spot on the roster. saving 2+ mil.
Also you have to take into account what will happen with the Fanene hearing which could save the Pats up to $4mil.
It hard to project all these hypothetical situations but if the Fanene case turns out to be in the pats favor we add 5 rookies to the 53 and lose 5 vets all between 450k and 900k that should leave us with "in theory"
Tentative Cap $121
Cap Spent $104.4M
Carry forward $6.7 M
Cut Fells $1M
Fanene $ 4 M
Cut 5 $2.5 M
Room: $30.8 M
Expenses:
Rookies $3.5M
Room: $26.3
Re-signings A:
Welker $8M
Talib $5.5M
Vollmer $6.5M
Cap Room Left: $6.3
Re-signings B:
Woodhead $ 1,125,000(pay raise)
Edelman $ 1,125,000
Hoomanawanui (RFA) $1.323 million
Fletcher (RFA) $1.323 million
White $990,000
Thomas $990,000
Cole $655,000
Ballard (RFA) $1.323 million
Total: $8.854M
Total = -$2,553M
Even if we carry forward money and get a good result from our Fanene hearing. It will be hard for us to resign all of our own FA's.
Will be interesting to see how the pats attack this off-season and who they prioritize. I do find the fan in me worrying that the injury history of Vollmer and the recent contract history with Welker could see them not back next year.
That's an interesting starting point of what an extremely optimistic scenario would get us. I'm no capologist, but I think your numbers are very much rose-tinted, and even then it's going to be tight. You also left out Arrington, who could still be of interest at the right price, in the right role.
There are a number of other places that I think that some money may be freed up:
1. Gostkowski. $3.4M cap hit in 2013, $3.8M in 2014. Sorry, but he's just not worth it. Cutting him would save around $1.8M this year and $3M next. There are good rookie UDFA kickers to be found. The team may ask him to take a pay cut or be released.
2. Gregory. I'm not sure how this would be done, but he has a $3M cap hit both this year and next, and I don't see him being worth it. Cutting him only saves $0.5K this year, but $2.35M in 2014, for a net cap savings of almost $3M over 2 years. I'm not sure what the incentive would be for him to restructure, but it's something I could see the team exploring. He's only 29 and a solid role player - I have no problem with him, just with the size of his contract relative to his value.
3. Extending/restructuring Brady and Wilfork. Both should be playing at a high level beyond the end of their current contracts, and both are foundational players and team leaders.
It will be interesting to see how creative the Pats are in the offseason.
As for all the wonderful external FAs mentioned in this thread, I can't see how the Pats are going to possibly afford any of them, unless they do some major restructuring, or they lose some major pieces from the current team. Welker, Talib and Vollmer are the top priorities, followed by Woodhead, and Edelman and then Thomas, Fletcher, Arrington, Cole, White, Hoomanawanui and Ballard. I just can't see how a Percy Harvin, Ed Reed (he'll be overpriced and at 35 he's likely to hit a wall) or anyone else would be squeezed in.
