Predict Patrots 2010 record

[Joker]

QB - should be better
RB - depends on health. If Taylor isn't lost early, it should be better
WR - Should be better if Welker is back at or near 100%.
TE - unknown
OL - With Mankins back, it should be better. Without him, it's an unknown

DL - It's really the RDE spot, and it's an unknown
ILB - Should be much better
OLB - Unknown
CB - should be better
S - should be better

There are no definite step-back positions. The team was 10-6 last year. It doesn't make any real sense to expect it to be much worse than that. How that stacks up to the schedule, naturally, depends upon the other teams, but here's a preliminary take:


The schedule is very difficult, but pretty favorable, in that most of the tough non-divisional games (based upon last year's records and this year's expectations) are at home:

Bengals
Ravens
Vikings
Colts
Packers

compared to the away schedule:

Chargers
Browns
Steelers
Lions
Bears

Matched up against the Jets and the differences are Colts/Texans at home and Chargers/Broncos on the road. The Dolphins face MIN, GB, CIN, BAL and OAK on the road, with PIT, TEN, CHI, CLE, DET at home. The Dolphins seem to have the toughest road in terms of game locations.

I don't like the 3 weeks after the bye (home for Ravens, West coast for Chargers, Midwest for Vikings), but after that it becomes a much easier travel schedule. The Jets, meanwhile, face a December of @NE, MIA, @PIT, @Chi. Miami's west coast trip is sandwiched between home games against and Cleveland, so that shouldn't be a problem, but they have a stretch in the middle of the season where they go @GB, PIT, @CIN, @BAL, TEN. This probably gives the Jets the most difficult single stretch of the 3 teams.

I see the Jets and Dolphins more likely than the Patriots to lose 'fatigue' games to bad teams. I see the Patriots the least likely of the 3 teams to sweep the "different" games (SD/IND v. HOU/DEN and OAK/TEN).

In the end, assuming Brady's health, Welker at 90% or so, improved production from WR3 and Mayo being better on that knee, I expect the Patriots to at least match last season's record and win the division.*



Naturally, I reserve the right to change my prediction at any point up until the start of game 1.

heh..and I agree with you Deus...you, of all of us,are an unabashed critic of things that are flaws that most fans are blinded to by the very nature of being fans.For you to make this evaluation makes me feel the read I have is pretty much the same.I am a huge admirer of Bill Belichick.Hearing that he took down all the reminders and vestiges of previous Patriot teams so this current team can focus on becoming what his vision has always dictated reaffirms my faith in his leadership. Assuming the variables you mentioned,this should be a classic BB season, one that finds this squad FINISHING strong at the end, just like the early 2000 teams, but one that has the advantage of a Brady and an offense that can carry this young squad as key players grow...and by that I mean Spikes and McCourty and Gronkowski etc.I think the Pats hit a home run in the draft for the first time in 3 or 4 years and I think there's enough leadership from the vets to show them what it takes.

I was at that playoff game versus the Ravens...that was NOT Bill Belichick football...one thing you could always bank on, his teams may start slow, but when he gets them to where he wants, they always finish strong.I anticipate that this season, no matter what happens.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

12-4 = delusional

This team has stayed the same for the most part [except for draft picks, but everyone has draft picks, so it evens out]. In the NFL, staying the same usually means you are not as good the following year.

So, to me, the Pats are 9-7/8-8.

I've already said here that I think it's too early to make any predictions and will wait until just before the season starts (I tend to be within a game of the "right answer" when I wait until then). That said, I think 12--4 is very optimistic, but not delusional; by the same measure, I would say that 8--8 is way too pessimistic, but not impossible. Of course, a lot of people thought that 11--5 was out of the question in 2001, after 5--11 in 2000...

As for the Jets, I still look on them as a team that was on its way to, at best, 8--8 and maybe even 7--9 before Polian pulled Peyton. I grant that the Charger win was important, but Pats fans know better than any that the Chargers have a habit of throwing up in January games. I'll also grant that you gave the Colts a good half, but in the end couldn't hang with them when all the chips were on the table. To my mind, this offseason you upgraded an already scary secondary, but made a very questionable move at RB and brought wildcards into a lockerroom that is led by a young and still unproven QB. So, the jury's way out. 12--4? Optimistic but not delusional; 8--8? Way too pessimistic but not impossible.

I'll make a Pats prediction to which you can hold me right before the season opens.

 

[Mix]

11-5

1st in AFCE

 

[PatriotsInGA]

14-2

Losses to: San Diego and @ Miami

 

[BradfordPatsFan]

In the round table wrap up I mentioned that it is entirely possible the Patriots go anywhere from 8-8 to 13-3. 12-4, like others have predicted, was my overly optimistic, not overall best case scenario.

I have losses @ Miami, @ SD, @ Pitt, and vs NYJ. On top of those, I can see the Minnesotta, GB, Indy, Baltimore, and remaining Miami and NYJ games going either way.

There are a lot of roster/depth chart questions and a challenging schedule. It is going to be an incredibly fun-filled ride, up and down, and a lot of surprises. I'm just happy that football starts up again in less than an hour!

 

[PowerRunRevival]

I'm pretty optimistic about the season but after looking at the schedule I see 11-5 as a good record. If we can win that many games I see us making the playoffs and then making some noise.

 

[Rob0729]

12-4 = delusional

This team has stayed the same for the most part [except for draft picks, but everyone has draft picks, so it evens out]. In the NFL, staying the same usually means you are not as good the following year.

So, to me, the Pats are 9-7/8-8.

The Pats had like four losses where they were leading in the fourth quarter and collapsed last year. That had to do with a lot of things that might be corrected this season (young players getting more experience, a healthy Brady and Moss, guys like Burgess now understanding the system, a more agressive defense, etc.).

I don't know how likely 12-4 will be, but the Pats with a few plays here and there could have had 12-13 wins last season. Last year they didn't make those plays, this year they might.

Not making excuses because you have to make the plays to win and it is your own fault if you don't. I am only saying that even if the Pats are slightly better this season, they might be good enough to make those plays.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

The Pats had like four losses where they were leading in the fourth quarter and collapsed last year.

So did the Jets. Your point?

The Jets could have easily been a 12 win team last year.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

10-6 - division champs... i think we will fight more with Miami than the jets for the division...

 

[Ring 6]

The Pats had like four losses where they were leading in the fourth quarter and collapsed last year. That had to do with a lot of things that might be corrected this season (young players getting more experience, a healthy Brady and Moss, guys like Burgess now understanding the system, a more agressive defense, etc.).

I don't know how likely 12-4 will be, but the Pats with a few plays here and there could have had 12-13 wins last season. Last year they didn't make those plays, this year they might.

Not making excuses because you have to make the plays to win and it is your own fault if you don't. I am only saying that even if the Pats are slightly better this season, they might be good enough to make those plays.

12 wins comes down to a correct spot vs Indy and the game vs Houston mattering. That isn't even correcting the problems within the team.
We look at the 2009 Patriots and see flaws, because we are looking through glasses that are tinted by 3 SB Championships, the best record in the NFL over a decade, a 16-0 season, the 2 longest winning streaks ever, etc, etc.

Had the 2007 Patriots been 6-10 and the 2008 Patriots 8-8, then 2009 happened, the 2010 Patriots would be looked at as one of the up and coming dangerous teams in the league. Its all perespective. Somehow because we have been so good, a 'down' year must have some greater meaning, even though that year wouldn't be a down year for at least 20 of the 32 teams.

 

[Ring 6]

We can get away with being that high but still sucking because we have the best coach in the NFL and he can keep us in games with personnel that otherwise wouldn't be able to do so.

I don't understand that comment. We allowed the 5th fewest points, so I don't know how we suck more than someone who allowed more but don't have the best coach?

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

Had the 2007 Patriots been 6-10 and the 2008 Patriots 8-8, then 2009 happened, the 2010 Patriots would be looked at as one of the up and coming dangerous teams in the league. Its all perespective. Somehow because we have been so good, a 'down' year must have some greater meaning, even though that year wouldn't be a down year for at least 20 of the 32 teams.

See that's just it. The Patriots AREN'T coming off 6-10, 8-8 years. They are coming off 16-0, 11-5. It's quite obvious that they have declined.

If these young defensive players can work out for the Patriots, they will rise again. The Pats need to get back to their glory years from early in the decade. Get a dominant defense that will **** you up. Watching those playoff games back in Foxborough in the snow, you knew the opposing team didn't have a prayer. That's because the Pats' defense took away their will to play.

You can throw around the 5th in the league stat all you want, but the Patriots defense wasn't all that great last year. And you should know that from watching the games. Don't get caught up in stats so much.

 

[BradyMossWelker]

I don't know bout you. But I'm really confident, cause I think our offense will tear defenses apart. Brady healthy, with so many good recievers. Gronk will help a lot in the red zone, which was an issue. Hernandez will be a matchup problem for the opposing offenses. I honestly believe we'll be the top offense in the NFL. We were a top 5 last year, with Brady injuried, and no recievers behind Welker and Moss. Maybe I'm too confident.
And I really don't see a major improvement for the defense, because we haven't solved our major problems, pass rush(even though Burgess will be a lot better than the beggining of last year) and the RDE spot.
The best improvement we'll have on defense will be experience

Our record, I believe will be 13-3.

 

[Patspsycho]

I know you are but what am I?

hopeless...

 

[Ring 6]

See that's just it. The Patriots AREN'T coming off 6-10, 8-8 years. They are coming off 16-0, 11-5. It's quite obvious that they have declined.

If these young defensive players can work out for the Patriots, they will rise again. The Pats need to get back to their glory years from early in the decade. Get a dominant defense that will **** you up. Watching those playoff games back in Foxborough in the snow, you knew the opposing team didn't have a prayer. That's because the Pats' defense took away their will to play.

You can throw around the 5th in the league stat all you want, but the Patriots defense wasn't all that great last year. And you should know that from watching the games. Don't get caught up in stats so much.

Those seasons have nothing to do with this one.
They were 10-6. It doesnt make them better or worse if that represents an imporvement or decline from prior year.

5th is 5th. Its a stupid argument that 5th isnt 5th 'by watching games'. What did the 5th ranked Patriot D do that was worse than what other teams allowing more points did? Its not getting caught up in stats, its deaing with facts.
Points isnt a 'stat' to get caught up. Getting caught up in stats is exactly using other stats to downplay the one that matters, points.
Please show me all of the defenses that allowed more points but were more effective.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

Those seasons have nothing to do with this one.
They were 10-6. It doesnt make them better or worse if that represents an imporvement or decline from prior year.

5th is 5th. Its a stupid argument that 5th isnt 5th 'by watching games'. What did the 5th ranked Patriot D do that was worse than what other teams allowing more points did? Its not getting caught up in stats, its deaing with facts.
Points isnt a 'stat' to get caught up. Getting caught up in stats is exactly using other stats to downplay the one that matters, points.
Please show me all of the defenses that allowed more points but were more effective.

Cincinnati and Minnesota were both more effective on defense. They allowed more points.

 

[BradyMossWelker]

The points allowed, has a lot to do with the time an offense keeps the ball.

 

[Garbanza]

Until I see otherwise, I expect that we will continue the dominance over out division, as we are 41-13 the last 9 years, and I don't see where the division is any more difficult this year than it has been over those 9.
I'll put us at 5-1 in the div because of the difficulty we always have in Miami. A year of their system on tape, the losses outweighing the addition, and the bulletin board material a year in the making says we sweep the Jests.
We hardly ever lose to bad teams. We have 4 of them on the schedule outside the division (Chi, Cincy(they return to their normal 6-10 this year), Detriot, Cleve).
That brings us to 9-1 outside of the competitive part of the schedule.

Those 6 are
Baltimore, Indy, GB, Minnesota at home
SD and Pitt on the road.

3-3 in those games is the safe pick.
3-3 says we split the road games, which I think makes a lot of sense.
3-3 says we have to count Bmore and Indy as losses because Bmore came here and won in the playoffs and Indy has had our number lately, and that we beat NFC teams at home which we always do, and neither of those teams seem good enough to come here and spank us.

Thats 12-4.
Only 4-2 in the division could make it 11-5, avenging the Colts or Ravens could make it 13-3.

Hate to break it to you, but the Jets and Dolphins have improved - a lot. Also, one of the glaring issues from last season was pass rush and it seems to me that they did NOT address that issue.

I see 10 wins - but would not be shocked at 8 or 12, really. I never count out the Brady/Belichick combo.

 

[Ring 6]

Hate to break it to you, but the Jets and Dolphins have improved - a lot. Also, one of the glaring issues from last season was pass rush and it seems to me that they did NOT address that issue.

I see 10 wins - but would not be shocked at 8 or 12, really. I never count out the Brady/Belichick combo.

Not shocked at 8 says you are counting them out IMO.
I do not see how the Jets have improved. Their running game suffered big losses. If you want to believe Cromartie is an upgrade go ahead, but he sucks. Where is the improvement? Adding a WR that is suspended to catch passes from a QB who can't get the ball to him?
Miami lost their top 2 pass rushers, and their NT.
Those 2 teams are pretty much the equaivalent of what they were, on average over the last 9 years, pretty much average football teams, give or take a game in either direction. Put them both between 7-9 and 9-7 and its a safe bet.

 

[Ring 6]

Cincinnati and Minnesota were both more effective on defense. They allowed more points.

How were they more effective while allowing more points? What did they do that was more important than the scoreboard?