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Ok, I have been thinking about this game a lot so I figured I would throw out some thoughts (plus I wanted to use my "My Little Ponies" reference before I forgot). I actually think this game has blowout potential for the Patriots (just like the last two games vs. Luck). Here are my reasons why:
- The Colts suck in the red zone on both sides of the ball. Ok, they don't suck on offense, but they are average at best with the 16th ranked red zone offense. Considering they are the #1 offense in the league, that isn't very good. They absolutely suck on defense though being the worst red zone defense in the league.
- The Colts cannot pressure the QB with any form of consistency without blitzing. If you blitz Brady, he is likely to eat you apart. If you don't pressure Brady, he is likely to eat you apart. Pick your poison.
- TY Hilton still makes up the lion share of the Colts' passing offense. I think he has caught 28% of Luck's passes and 30% of his yards this season. The Pats are good at taking away what the other team does best and that is Hilton this week. Luck seems to like to focus on one receiver more than others. Can he adjust if the Pats shut down Hilton?
- The Colts aren't a good running team. Yes, they are middle of the pack in attempts and yards, but that is misleading since Luck has rushed 35 times (13.7% of their rushing attempts) for 129 yards (12.6% of their rushing yards). The Pats' biggest weakness on defense is rush defense and I don't think the Colts like to commit to the run. Bradshaw has a very good yards per carry average, but that is misleading too because he faces a lot of 5 and 6 men in the box expecting a pass. He is averaging less than 50 yards a game.
- Luck makes mistakes. The guy is a great QB, but he is a gunslinger and still gambles too much at times which has cost him in fumbles and INTs. For the season, he has thrown 9 INTs and fumbled the ball 3 times. In his two games vs. the Pats, he has thrown 7 INTs and fumbled once.
- No answer for Gronk? The Colts are a smaller, fast defense. Those types of defenses have their advantages, but I think that is a liability to cover Gronk. It would almost be like me playing football with the ten year old kids down the street of my house. Sure they are faster than me, but you could throw jump balls to me all day and they have no shot of covering me. Plus, I could just knock them over at the line of scrimmage. That is the way I see Gronk playing against the Colts.
- Brady shines in the dome. Brady is 11-3 in a dome in the regular season and typically puts up big numbers. Plus he has done very well against Pagano's defenses when he had Gronk.
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