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PatsCast Episode 20 (with Jay Shields, postgame analysis)


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Bill's review of game tape may come to a different conclusion than I do about who was at fault in Moss' 20% completion performance Sunday. What I'm basing my opinion on is what Bill said Monday after dissecting that tape (Brady was making his reads and his decisions were not fixation they were the result of normal progression), what Moss said immediately post game (one long miss/INT was a miscommunication (which means either he or Brady didn't undstand what was supposed to happen) and the other was just a great play by the defender - he didn't mention the bobble but that wasn't really open to interpretation since the ball landed in his mitts and had he not bobbled it it would have resulted in another TD). If a WR is in position to make a play on the ball, he's expected to catch it or make damn sure no one else does. Moss was one on one on those plays and he got beat... They were not poor throws, whether they were poor decisions is increasingly debatable. Again, you need the coaches tape and a firm understanding of the play call, which none of us has, to determine if that was precisely the case.

You spent how long telling us how you can't judge a play when you don't know the assignments? Yet you can determine what is a bad throw vs. bad decision vs. bad read. Not only that but you are able to decipher some hidden meaning in every word spoken to the media.

The endzone drop and miss over the middle were on Moss. The 2nd INT was a bad throw and/or bad read. The 1st INT was a bad throw and/or bad read. One INC was thrown DIRECTLY at Cromartie and Moss lunged forward and batted it down to avoid a 3rd INT.

You come to the conclusion (with a bias against Moss) and then here and see everything you want manipulated to fit your pre-determined analysis. Then you demand everyone else not analyze anything because we have incomplete information.

The people arguing against blaming O'Brien continue to point to failed execution examples. Yet failure on any play has a prerequisite of some form of execution failure. You cannot execute any play PERFECTLY and fail, it just can't be done. The ENTIRE argument is that BoB can do a better job with putting the team in positions that play to their strengths, mask their weaknesses and have a higher probability of success. NO ONE is arguing that BoB is so terrible that it is impossible for them to succeed.
 
The people arguing against blaming O'Brien continue to point to failed execution examples. Yet failure on any play has a prerequisite of some form of execution failure. You cannot execute any play PERFECTLY and fail, it just can't be done. The ENTIRE argument is that BoB can do a better job with putting the team in positions that play to their strengths, mask their weaknesses and have a higher probability of success. NO ONE is arguing that BoB is so terrible that it is impossible for them to succeed.

Precisely. I am reminded of a time I played pickup basketball against a kid who played low level DI in college. I thought I was pretty good, but he schooled my like nobodies business.

Once you get the NFL the players and the coaches are all superb. We've just been treated to superior coaching/coordinating/gameplanning/adjusting even in that higher rhealm and it is jarring when we see (what I believe is) mediocre performance.
 
This was the second game for a bunch of players playing key roles for the Pats (McCourty, Spikes, Cunningham, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Crumpler, Warren) and its very early in the careers in terms of meaningful snaps for Tate, Edleman, Chung, Vollmer, Butler, Brace, and Ninkovich so is it really surprising that in a hostile environment, against a desperate fairly talented team they had struggles executing??? Just be prepared for some inconsistencies this year this is a young team whose execution is bound to fluctuate from week to week.
 
This was the second game for a bunch of players playing key roles for the Pats (McCourty, Spikes, Cunningham, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Crumpler, Warren) and its very early in the careers in terms of meaningful snaps for Tate, Edleman, Chung, Vollmer, Butler, Brace, and Ninkovich so is it really surprising that in a hostile environment, against a desperate fairly talented team they had struggles executing??? Just be prepared for some inconsistencies this year this is a young team whose execution is bound to fluctuate from week to week.

That has already been said countless times in this thread, 4 times by me at least. That said, two things.

1) Notice how many players you mentioned are on defense, which has nothing to do with the offensive issues.

2) Why would you mentioned Edelman and Vollmer? Both obviously know the system and proved more than capable.
 
2) Re: TEs. Ben Watson would not be the best TE on the team right now. I've seen him miss that same block (or others, like blown whams) every game he's ever played in, despite plenty of experience. We can always find a play or two that someone screwed up.

I'm not a big Watson fan, but come on. He's a better blocker than any TE except Crumpler, and he's a better receiver than any TE except Hernandez. Could this change over the course of this season? Absolutely. I expect Gronk to surpass Watson at both blocking and receiving, and to probably do it before the year is over. But we're talking about where they are today.

3) The road/home has already been addressed, somewhat. It is easily to both communicate and audible at home. On top of that, it is more likely that execution will make up for playcalling issues at home than on the road. Even "bad" playcalls can have success. I can't see any reason why 2006 has any impact whatsoever when that was OC'd by someone completely different. 2009 to present is all the relevent data.

Road/home hasn't been addressed accurately, and that continues to be the case. Brady was calling the plays and the coverages, and I've yet to see anyone claim that he was unable to get it done on Sunday. As for 2006, someone else has been using past seasons as part of a remarkably flawed attempt to show that the first half/second half dichotomy is something unique to 2009/1 game in 2010.

4) I've disagree with Bruschi and Brown plenty, so I understand your point here. What do you say about the Jet players? You'd think they would be more than happy to say they out-toughed 'em or they out-physicaled 'em or they simply outplayed 'em. But they said they outsmarted them.

Meriweather:

"I don't think they made many adjustments. They came out and did pretty much the same thing, maybe threw one or two wrinkles in there. But other than that, they pretty much did the same thing. They made the plays when it counted."

Edelman:

(On what the Jets second-half adjustments were...)

"It was obvious, so... We're going to move onto the Bills."

Patriots Locker Room Quotes- 9/20/2010

Cromartie:

On whether Revis' absence matched him against Randy Moss the rest of the game...
That was the game plan pretty much (in) the second half.

David Harris:

On if they added anything new for this game...
No, (we had the) same mindset; same plays.

Dustin Keller:

On the defense he was up against...
Well they were playing a lot of cover two, split safety, with a linebacker on me, so I felt really good with that matchup, me running with a linebacker and Mark saw me and he made good throws there. Whatever they made adjustments to, we made adjustments to counteract them.

On the adjustments...
[We adjusted] every single play. More times than not, this play is the best versus cover two, but if they do go to cover three, Mark you play the veer. It seemed like he was doing that all game.

Kyle Wilson:

On what the defense did differently against Tom Brady in the second half...
We just gave him different techniques (and) different looks. We didn't want to sit back in the same defense. They made adjustments, we made adjustments, as well. Maybe it confused him, maybe it didn't, but (it) was definitely a good outcome.

Jets Postgame Quotes

Wilfork:

"We’ve been having problems with sub runs all year, going back to last year," Wilfork said. "The one thing that can hurt us, the run they chose, the weak zone, we talked about and didn’t execute.

"Stuff like that irriates me," Wilfork continued. "We should be clicking. We should have guys thinking that way, one step ahead. People hurt us on stuff that has hurt us in the past. Sub runs – that’s sticking with us until it stops."

Wilfork and struggles with 'sub' runs - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

So... Patriots made some adjustments. Jets made some adjustments, but apparently not many specific to either half, and they weren't things that the Patriots hadn't seen before. Patriots knew what was coming. Patriots couldn't make the stops. Patriots couldn't exploit the Moss/Cromartie matchup

Execution, not playcalling.
 
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I'm not a big Watson fan, but come on. He's a better blocker than any TE except Crumpler, and he's a better receiver than any TE except Hernandez. Could this change over the course of this season? Absolutely. I expect Gronk to surpass Watson at both blocking and receiving, and to probably do it before the year is over. But we're talking about where they are today.

Road/home hasn't been addressed accurately, and that continues to be the case. Brady was calling the plays and the coverages, and I've yet to see anyone claim that he was unable to get it done on Sunday. As for 2006, someone else has been using past seasons as part of a remarkably flawed attempt to show that the first half/second half dichotomy is something unique to 2009/1 game in 2010.

So... Patriots made some adjustments. Jets made some adjustments, but apparently not many specific to either half, and they weren't things that the Patriots hadn't seen before. Patriots knew what was coming. Patriots couldn't make the stops. Patriots couldn't exploit the Moss/Cromartie matchup

Execution, not playcalling.

1) Gronk was a better blocker than Watson the first day of training camp. For better or for worse there is no way anyone can convince me otherwise, Watson was a below average to poor blocker.

2) In your opinion.

3) I'll bring one quote down because they were similarly themed.

On what the defense did differently against Tom Brady in the second half...

We just gave him different techniques (and) different looks. We didn't want to sit back in the same defense. They made adjustments, we made adjustments, as well. Maybe it confused him, maybe it didn't, but (it) was definitely a good outcome.

Of course they made adjustments. Teams are already making adjustments, sometimes before the first snap even takes place once they see a different personnel package or alingment than they expected. Simply saying adjustments were made doesn't mean they were the best adjustments.

Interesting discussion. We'll have our answers as the season wears on. I'm patient enough to wait.
 
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Of course they made adjustments. Teams are already making adjustments, sometimes before the first snap even takes place once they see a different personnel package or alingment than they expected. Simply saying adjustments were made doesn't mean they were the best adjustments.

Interesting discussion. We'll have our answers as the season wears on. I'm patient enough to wait.

Just a final thing in response to your post, but just a general statement..... there actually ARE people on this board saying that the Patriots didn't make any adjustments.

There are also people blaming the playcalling for:

Running too much
Not running enough
Running on 2nd and 10
Throwing deep to Moss when he was one-on-one against Cromartie

Meanwhile, what's been largely ignored is the choice of BJGE rotating 50/50 with Taylor and Welker only taking 39 of 61 snaps.
 
Part I

I think that's a fair and well-reasoned analysis, and since there seems to be a persistent perception that we're placing this loss 100% on O'Brien, then I'm going to chalk that up to poor editing on my part and apologize for it. The intent here was not to say that this loss was 100% on the coaches, and we should have led with more clarification to this effect, considering that after briefly mentioning it we then proceeded to basically call out BoB for 45 minutes. The execution was pretty bad; of course we agree with that. The players had plenty of their own failings that contributed to this loss. The difference, of course, is that whereas Brady made mistakes, I'm not worried about his ability to execute because he's proven, many times over, that he can. The most concise way that we don't regard the offensive personnel's ability to execute as a primary concern. The roster is stacked with players who have a proven ability to perform at an extremely high level.

When they consistently fail to perform in key situations, one has to begin questioning why. If the players are continually failing to perform the tasks that have been assigned to them, then they're either a) not talented enough to play in the NFL, or b) are not being properly utilized. My argument, and the argument that we made in this podcast, was simply that B is the strongest contributing factor, and the one that's most sobering re: the season-long prospects of this team. We welcome disagreement. But characterizing us as calling for the coordinators' head after one loss isn't exactly fair, either. If you go back to our offseason podcasts with Jay, these same questions came up then. The whole reason why I'm finally subscribing to them now, rather than a year ago, is because I wasn't willing to make knee-jerk reactions, and I wanted to see what he could do with a full offseason at his disposal. So far, the results aren't promising.

Well, if you look at the issues with the personnel, you can see that not much has changed from last year to this year. I highlighted a few of them in my "Hmmmm" post, but I'll do it again to save you the time from going from thread to thread.

Issues on offense and defense 2009-2010 (no particular order):

1. WR3-WR5 - This is an area that gave us a lot of trouble in 2009. We had a career special teamer in Sam Aiken there who gave us very little, if anything at the position. Behind him was an oft-injured Julian Edelman at WR4 and a quarterback conversion turned receiver Isaiah Stanback who had no business playing WR. Because of that, Moss and Welker were getting the majority of the targets in the passing game. That made our offense ridiculously easy to shut down.

Now, fast forward to this year. One of my main complaints when addressing the offense in that thread was, "where the hell is Brandon Tate?". After putting together an impressive offseason, Tate saw himself vaulted to WR3 status in our offense, lining up as the split end. In two games, Tate has hauled in 5 receptions for 53 yards. In order for this offense to have success, Tate is going to have to contribute more often than he has. We need him to become a vertical threat down the field and we also need him to be able to threaten over the middle as well. If he can't do that as the third option, this offense is going to go through issues similar to last season. At WR4, Edelman finally saw his first action of the year coming off of injury, but hardly contributed. We need him to become more of a presence in the slot, especially if we're only going to use Gronk to block. At WR5, we've seen an upgrade having lined Hernandez up there. He contributed big time with a 100 yard game this past Sunday and broke off a huge gain in the first game to set the offense up nicely. He needs to continue what he's done. But he's not going to be enough. Without Tate and Edelman contributing, we're going to see things like we saw last Sunday: Brady forcing the issue and the offense stalling at key points.

2. OLB - Going into the offseason, the chief concern among most Pats fans and among the people that followed them was at the OLB position. Last year, we got a career year out of TBC. That was hardly enough, though. We saw Adalius Thomas take a huge step back athletically and physically. We also saw Ninkovich get starting times as well as Pierre Woods. The latter two really had no business in the starting line-up as they were really just good back-ups that can come in for a couple of plays to give the starters a rest because they had a good idea of how the system is run. However, due to the lack of depth at OLB, those two saw significant time in the defense last season.

Fast forward to this year. Woods has been released while Ninkovich is seeing starting time. TBC is still here, but shouldn't be counted on to give us a year like he did last season. Outside of Ninkovich and TBC, we have Jermaine Cunningham... a rookie who is trying to learn on the run. Given these facts, we should expect to see the same issues at the position that we did last year, which isn't exactly beneficial for the defense. This issue was exploited in the first meeting with the Bengals just as it was this past weekend against the Jets.

3. DE - Before last season, the team made the boneheaded decision of letting Seymour walk a year early for a first round pick. The hole left behind by his departure was exposed time and time again last season. Going into the offseason, we addressed that by bringing in a body of JAGs like Gerard Warren and Damione Lewis in. Then, in the preseason, we lose our other starter at DE, Ty Warren, to season ending hip injury.

Fast forward to this season, and the situation at DE is even worse than last season. We have a slew of bodies that are liabilities against the run in there. Wright and Warren were taken in and out of the starting line-up this past weekend. My only guess is that BB saw what I saw: that the Jets' tackles were able to move both of them out of the way at will on outside runs. We experimented by bringing in Ron Brace, a DT trying to convert to DE. The results by my eyes and by Mike Rodak's eyes were mixed. He had some success and some failures. He wasn't consistent. The other body in the mix is a 7th round draft pick who I am high on. However, he is still a rookie who needs to gain some weight and learn on the run. The bottom line is that the same issues from DE that were there last year are even more prevalent this season. You can see this when Wilfork is moved outside and the opposing offense (like the Jets and Tomlinson) responds but taking the ball right where the hole is that Wilfork left behind. Wilfork is all-world, but he can't get it done by himself.

4. TE - Last year, we were looking at Ben Watson and Chris Baker. Watson was let go in the offseason after a few disappointing seasons as was Baker, who proved to be way too slow to contribute in this offense as a tight end. We addressed that position by picking up Crumpler as a blocker in the offseason, and he has clearly helped the O-Line on the edges. In the second round, we drafted an athletic freak in Rob Gronkowski and later took pass catcher Aaron Hernandez.

This season, Hernandez has been used liberally in the passing game and the results have been successful. Remember I called this? :cool: Crumpler has been doing what has been asked of him in the blocking game and has contributed as a pass catcher, but not in a big way. The one area where I can fault O'Brien is his use of Gronkowski so far. You don't draft a 6'7" athletic freak, walking, talking, match-up disaster of a tight end to keep him back and block 85% of the time. When you have a weapon like him on offense, you let him run routes as much as you possibly can. With the size of the Jets' safeties out there, I cannot possibly fathom why Gronkowski wasn't used more than he was. However, with that said, the one time Gronkowski was used in the passing game, he was WIDE OPEN down the seam and Brady horribly underthrew him. Again, this is an issue with the personnel and execution. In this case, though, it was compounded by coaching failures.
 
Part II...

5. Interior blocking & the running game - Last season, interior blocking was an issue, but only because of injuries. Neal saw significant time out and was replaced by Connolly. Koppen is a center who is significantly undersized and has been a liability against bigger DT's and DE's. The interior blocking issues were well documented in 2009 when it came to the running game and the passing game. This quarterback's kryptonite is a pocket not being present that he can step up in. If that pocket collapses, so does our defense.

This year, because of the lack of a contract for Mankins, Connolly is starting at LG. Neal is another year older and slower, and Koppen's issues are becoming more and more clear with his complete inability to handle Mike DeVito. On top of that, we have a mixture of injury-prone Fred Taylor and JAG BJGE back there taking handoffs behind that offensive line. Suffice it to say, these are all personnel and execution issues which significantly contributed to the offense stalling last season and significantly contributed to the offense stalling once again this past Sunday against the Jets.

-----------------------------------------------

Those are five issues that I can go into depth on off the top of my head. I could mention how ILB has improved significantly. However, I would also have to go into detail about how opponents can gameplan around them, just like Wilfork. Or how young our CB's are and how mistake prone they are going to be. But this is something we all expected.

The bottom line is that, with all of these lingering personnel issues being considered, I don't see how it's possibly to lay even the majority of blame at the coaching staff's feet. The personnel and the execution just aren't there. With a young team that is clearly rebuilding, that is to be expected. If you expect that, then it's really no surprise that these second half collapses started happening when we let the old guard go and ushered in the newer era. I just hope that it can be addressed, otherwise it's going to be a long season.

EDIT: I hope that was clear, Myles. If you have any questions about what I said, let me know. I'm nursing a 100+ degree fever and am pretty medicine-head right now. So there might be a couple of things in there that are jumbled up.
 
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I think that is completely reasonable and fair, no question. I don't know Bill O'Brien from a hole in the wall, and have no knowledge on the inner workings of the Patriots whatsoever. If I did I sure as hell wouldn't be posting on the internet. I was simply calling things as I saw them, my speculative opinion.
I felt that it was presented as more than observation, which obviously influenced my response.
If you had said at the start that from where you sit it seems........
My reaction would have been very different.
Perhaps that is my fault for assuming too much, perhaps not.



I like to think that I'm pretty knowledgable about the game, and have a handle on gameplanning, adjustments, personell strategy, and a lot of the finer points of the chess match that are often times missed. If the podcasts I do can offer some degree of insight to some people then that makes me happy. If it's not a good fit for others, then I understand that completely.
I like to think that I have such insight as well, but I know that watching the game on TV, maybe rewatching 75% with focus on individuals and rewind, and posting here once in a while is very insufficient to have anything more that educated guesses that may or may not pass muster when studied properly. I am as guilty as any I imagine of seeing what I see and dismissing what a deeper look might reveal.

I said the things I did about O'Brien not as a character assasination, nor as a personal attack. When someone says "That linebacker is really hurting the team in the run game because he lacks the strength to disengage" it is regarded as a non-offensive statement. If I say "That coordinator is really hurting the team because he lacks the creativity to put his players in the best position possible" people get upset.
I have no issue with you evaluating the coordinator. What I took issue to was A) your statement that the 'good' game plan comes from the top, and the 'bad' adjustments are his, and then basing an entire evaluation on that being fact. B) Quesitoning his intellect is different than observing whether the LB disengages. I was not interested in defending OBs honor, but in the fact that its irrelevant and not 'analyzable' from the TV set. C) The other comments in that general area that followed. I guess my objection is you create an idea of how his mind works, then make that the problem. Thats not a football issue, thats an issue of decidng who to villify then connecting the fabricated dots.



I'm simply evaluating tallent just as you would a player. I know what creative gameplanning looks like, I understand cause and effect and the flow of a football game. What he displayed out there was quite clearly a lack of creativity and he got his butt whooped by Rex and their DC mentally.
Thats an opinion. I would say that a gameplan that results in the Jets abandoning the blitz, dropping 7-8 in coverage, clogging the middle and leaving Moss in single coverage with no help would be a smart one.
When we got that, we couldnt continue to do what we did that created it.
I think thats the biggest issue with the "Adjustment Beef". Of course we went away from what worked because the Jets changed their defense to specifically defend it. I could identify 3 execution issues, by players who were not put in a position to fail at all, that would have dramaitcally changed the success or failure of the second half.


When I say things like "The initial gameplan was great" and attribute it to Belichick, I am speaking in football generality. 99% of teams have the large picture gameplans drawn up by the headcoaches with specific coaching points included. It is on the OC/DC to draw up plays and handle the in-game adjustments. There is no way that BoB couldn't have known exactly how the Jets were going to counter the initial delegation; it's simple stuff, really. It is quite clear to me that when things got difficult he reverted to the line up and chuck predictible stuff.
Certainly game planning starts universally and is narrowed. I would agree that BB identifies an overall tenor for the game plan, and no doubt is involved in the crafting of it with the coordinator. But the coordinators (in our system because in a place like Dallas the HC never enters the room) handles the nuts and bolts. Also the level BB is involved, which we are purely speculating, in crafting the game plan logically figures to resemble his involvement in the adjustments. He isnt going to create a game plan then tell the coordinator to figure out how to adjust to the defense without him. This topic could go on for hours.
My issues are that its a self-fulfilling prophecy to blame the OC then back it up by assuming his role is heavy in whats bad and light in whats good, without really knowing that fact.


Sure, there were a lot of execution errors out there, specifically with Brady locking into Moss,
I did not see 'locking on'. I think that is a cursory analysis. If you watch the plays from the assumption that Brady has been coaches that when Moss is in single coverage with no help that is a huge advantage he should exploit, you will see that those were the instances when he threw.
I don't think the strategy is or should be that if you went to Moss X amout of times, avoid the mismatch.
It is safe to say that the overwhlming majority of teams consider man coverage on their #1 with no help a huge advantage and want their QB to exploit it.
My issue is that Moss didnt get the job done.
On the 2nd Int, the ball simply should have been caught and the attempt to be cute and catch it with 1 hand bit him in the @ss. Change that one play and the game, and play calling look different.
On the first Int, I am convinced (does not mean I have to be right but I am sure of what I am seeing) if Moss went after that ball like the TD, he easily beats Cromartie to it. When Cromartie starts to turn his hips they are about even, and Moss loses ground from there. Moss giving 100% does not lose ground going after the ball to any DB still turning his hips. Watch the last 15-20 yards of both routes, it doesnt look like the same guy.
Add in the poor throw to Gronk, and the strip sack on 1st and 10 in the red zone, and solid execution means at least as many points on the board in the second half as the first.


but the one thing that the coaches can always control is putting their players into the best positions possible. He didn't do that. He hasn't done that for a long time
See above. It is certainly debatable whether players are put in position to succeed and dont or were not put into position to succeed. Above shows examples where they were.



He doesn't understand how to counter a counter, and it is quite evident if you know how to watch a game for the coaching.

Again that is opinion. I think that getting your best WR into single coverage and taking a blitzing team out of their blitz packages is a great game plan. But here is the problem. The adjustment to that is to attack them with the outside receivers, is it not? Thats what he did. It was the right approach and it failed. That is poor execution.

See, that is how I see it. Frankly, we would both probably have a different opinion than we do if we studied the coaches film for 20 hours. For example, what did the other receivers do on those passes to Moss, and what were the coverages? You cant really decide if the play call or execution was the problem/succes of a play unless you see the enitre field to know if the play was the correct reaction to what the D did, was not, and if the players executed it correctly.

My questions to you would be:

-Do you disagree that the read has to be throw to Moss when he is one on one with no help (esp with no Revis)? That answer isnt as easy as it would have been a week ago because of the results, but BB, Brady, or OB didnt have retrospect to make that call with.
-Wouldn't you agree that if the problem is throwing the ball to Moss too much that is a Brady problem, not a coaching problem? Consider this. If I am the play caller and I call a play that has my QB think his top weapon is open, Ive done my job. If the QB misreads that he is open, that is not the OCs fault. See, there were actual comments on this board yesterday suggesting the play calls were "Long bomb to Moss".
-Given that the Jets adjusted to what was working for us to take it away, wouldnt you agree we had to go away from that, and that we did attack the areas of the pass defense that were weakest in their adjusted scheme, but did it unsuccessfully?

I'd really like to know your opinions on that. My beef is more with Brady FTW for making cryptic implication about your 'connectness'. I suppose that shouldn't matter to me. But I don't think its good for the general discussion for the assumption top be that you have access to more information in analyzing what you see than every one else does, and I think that was happening.
The first time you were on, I simply asked what you background was so that I could understand where your opinion was coming from and was basically told "He has a lot, shut up, and how dare you ask that question'.
This time I felt that your comments were being construed as an inside analysis, because you spoke as if you had first hand knowledge, and I think the perception of the board is that you do. (I could be wrong there too)

I recognize I can come off as abraisive when not intending to. In most cases, I don't care to explain that because the responses indicate I should have been more abraisive on purpose, but yours does not.

I think we disagree on this issue, but I think we can both agree there is a lot gray in between and neither of have the tools we would really want to have to analyze it more confidently.
 
On the 2nd Int, the ball simply should have been caught and the attempt to be cute and catch it with 1 hand bit him in the @ss.

Andy, you really need to re-watch that play. Moss had to manipulate Cromartie (using his momentum) so that he could get himself in position to make a play on the ball. A ball that was thrown poorly based on the coverage. As he suddenly let off, Cromartie's momentum made him stumble forward toward the side while Moss lept up and got his hand on the ball. It would have been a flat out amazing catch, but it bounced off his hand giving Cromartie enough time to recover and get between Moss and the ball as the safety came over for the INT. Moss has never done things to be "cute", that is just insulting.
 
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Most importantly, the feedback that we receive is 95+% overwhelmingly positive. People really seem to enjoy what we produce, which is why we keep doing it. It's kind of a shame that the one or two detractors attempt to dominate and derail the discussion, but that's life. Haters gonna hate, etc. etc. But anyways, by all means, please go rooting through my posting history to try to prove that I made a bunch of outlandish claims of insider access. The fact that you're about to waste a bunch of time trying to find something that isn't there makes me happy.

I've enjoyed your podcasts, and I haven't listened to this last one yet, although I plan to. From what's been presented about it, it seems as if the analysis was off the mark this time.


It happens.
 
Part 1

I felt that it was presented as more than observation, which obviously influenced my response.
If you had said at the start that from where you sit it seems........
My reaction would have been very different.
Perhaps that is my fault for assuming too much, perhaps not.

That's on me for not making that position more clear then, and I appologize if I presented myself as having some form of credential I don't have.




I like to think that I have such insight as well, but I know that watching the game on TV, maybe rewatching 75% with focus on individuals and rewind, and posting here once in a while is very insufficient to have anything more that educated guesses that may or may not pass muster when studied properly. I am as guilty as any I imagine of seeing what I see and dismissing what a deeper look might reveal.

No question. As I type this I am going over the DVR to re-evaluate my opinion. We're planning a followup podcast about this very topic given the level of both interest and debate this topic has drawn. Is the data perfect? Of course not, but it is the best thing that we as fans have access to.


I have no issue with you evaluating the coordinator. What I took issue to was A) your statement that the 'good' game plan comes from the top, and the 'bad' adjustments are his, and then basing an entire evaluation on that being fact. B) Quesitoning his intellect is different than observing whether the LB disengages. I was not interested in defending OBs honor, but in the fact that its irrelevant and not 'analyzable' from the TV set. C) The other comments in that general area that followed. I guess my objection is you create an idea of how his mind works, then make that the problem. Thats not a football issue, thats an issue of decidng who to villify then connecting the fabricated dots.

I think that your comments on part C are completely reasonable and I agree with a lot of what you are saying. I do disagree on parts A and B, however. While our sample is extremely limited, there are things that can be gleaned from the televised game. The continued attempts at establishing the zone blocking scheme is just one example of trying to force a square peg into a round hole. Andy, it's quite clear to me that you know what you are talking about, so you know that at it's most fundamental level the zone is based upon two principals; having a quick hitting tailback with exceptional burst and denying penetration. It simply does not make sense to run zone against a run defense that is predicated upon penetration and not lane/gap integrity. If anyone along the line shoots a gap in a well timed manner it is a blown play. The Jets defense is based upon that exact principal and it was clear that the quick trap/power game was effective because of this very reason. It's one thing to infer about one's acumen and intellect (which I am willing to admit I was likely hyperbolic and undereducated about), while it is another entirely to view what is simply a bad call.




I would say that a gameplan that results in the Jets abandoning the blitz, dropping 7-8 in coverage, clogging the middle and leaving Moss in single coverage with no help would be a smart one.
When we got that, we couldnt continue to do what we did that created it.
I think thats the biggest issue with the "Adjustment Beef". Of course we went away from what worked because the Jets changed their defense to specifically defend it. I could identify 3 execution issues, by players who were not put in a position to fail at all, that would have dramaitcally changed the success or failure of the second half.

A valid point, but as you know the primary responsibility of the OC is to mitigate playmaking as much as possible, placing the primary emphasis on putting your guys in the best position possible. Holy crap that was a lot of P's. My main beef with the adjustments made through the course of the game on offense is that they rely too much on the athlete doing something spectacular instead of making his job as easy as possible. Is throwing to Moss against single coverage generally a good decision? Sure, but he was blanketed, and it was pretty obvious at least to me that a better job could have been done. If they are going to take away the middle of the field and negate the in-cuts then it is on the OC to change the game to one of working the hashes. Utilize the receiver depth, set picks with your receivers, coach your QB to work the weakside of the formation as you know coverage is going to be rolled to the strength (Tate was obscenely open several times and was consistently neglected which is a blatant coaching point), and find more creative ways of continuing to make incremental gains. Flood zones with mixed man are hard to beat, but there are a ton of plays our there that are zone beaters, nevermind all of the potential physical mismatches one could have at their disposal. I just feel like OB could have done more, and this is a consistent sentiment I get from watching his offense.



[QUOTEAndyJohnson;2241337]Certainly game planning starts universally and is narrowed. I would agree that BB identifies an overall tenor for the game plan, and no doubt is involved in the crafting of it with the coordinator. But the coordinators (in our system because in a place like Dallas the HC never enters the room) handles the nuts and bolts. Also the level BB is involved, which we are purely speculating, in crafting the game plan logically figures to resemble his involvement in the adjustments. He isnt going to create a game plan then tell the coordinator to figure out how to adjust to the defense without him. This topic could go on for hours.
My issues are that its a self-fulfilling prophecy to blame the OC then back it up by assuming his role is heavy in whats bad and light in whats good, without really knowing that fact. [/QUOTE]

Agreed, and I should have done a better job with that.


I did not see 'locking on'. I think that is a cursory analysis.


I disagree with this, and this has been a major flaw in 12's game starting mid 2007. Moss is so damn good that most QB's will throw a ball into a 1v1 matchup because of the confidence he gives them. That is bad quarterbacking. Instead, he needed to do a better job of identifying the coverage on the backside of the play and looking towards Tate and other avenues rather than continuing to think his receiver is going to come down with the ball consistently against hip2hip coverage with a safety hovering over the top waiting to make a play on a deflected ball. That is just poor decision making that he did not do during what was in my opinion his best season in 2006.





Again that is opinion. I think that getting your best WR into single coverage and taking a blitzing team out of their blitz packages is a great game plan. But here is the problem. The adjustment to that is to attack them with the outside receivers, is it not? Thats what he did. It was the right approach and it failed. That is poor execution.

I think that conceptually we are on the same page. I think that it could be argued that herein lies the fundamental flaw with the play design. It is too reliant upon the athlete and not reliant upon the drawup to get his guys into great position. Look at some of the better plays OB drew up this year. TE's vacating coverage, motion selling out coverages, TE's blocking on what basically makes and quick screen, 81 running off exterior coverage to vacate the flats. When it comes down to crunch time, it is pretty clear to me that he becomes overly reliant upon playmaking- not himself to draw up a play that will mentally defeat the opponent.

See, that is how I see it. Frankly, we would both probably have a different opinion than we do if we studied the coaches film for 20 hours.

Definately, and I think that is what it's all about. Anytime you talk football with another knowledgeable guy half the fun is disagreeing about things as it ultimately gives you a better knowledge of the game. Hell, it'd be fun to have a few beers together and look at the tape.
 
Part 2

-Do you disagree that the read has to be throw to Moss when he is one on one with no help (esp with no Revis)? That answer isnt as easy as it would have been a week ago because of the results, but BB, Brady, or OB didnt have retrospect to make that call with.
I don't agree that is *has* to be that given that it is in a vaccum with no context of what is happening away from your flanker, but in general yes it is a good decision.

-Wouldn't you agree that if the problem is throwing the ball to Moss too much that is a Brady problem, not a coaching problem? Consider this. If I am the play caller and I call a play that has my QB think his top weapon is open, Ive done my job. If the QB misreads that he is open, that is not the OCs fault. See, there were actual comments on this board yesterday suggesting the play calls were "Long bomb to Moss".

Sure, if I were calling the plays I would have tested that early. Once it was proved to me that my receiver wasn't going to win the battle, I would have taken advantage of the respect he commands and utilized other players. Hell, perhaps even simplifying the read into a two reciever read ala Indy. In a very basic example, run joint routes like the up and out taking advantage of my split end's speed mismatch over Wilson. They were playing tight cushions on the outside, and if I used the arrow in conjunction with the go I could create a pick for my split end. If they went zone, I would drop the ball in over the corner, especially with the FS rolled up to take away the seam. If they went man, I would have a won body positioning battle over the interior defender on either the corner or arrow that would have created an incremental gain. The point that I am driving at is that the simple solutions weren't working. It was pretty clear to me that once the simple solution was taken away it seemed that the playcaller was in over his head.

-Given that the Jets adjusted to what was working for us to take it away, wouldnt you agree we had to go away from that, and that we did attack the areas of the pass defense that were weakest in their adjusted scheme, but did it unsuccessfully?

I agree that was the design, but it was again based upon playmaking and not fundamental exploitation of scheme vs scheme. If that comes down to decision making on the QB, only coaches tape will show that. All I know is that it was a very colloquial and basic exterior attack.

My beef is more with Brady FTW for making cryptic implication about your 'connectness'. I suppose that shouldn't matter to me. But I don't think its good for the general discussion for the assumption top be that you have access to more information in analyzing what you see than every one else does, and I think that was happening.
The first time you were on, I simply asked what you background was so that I could understand where your opinion was coming from and was basically told "He has a lot, shut up, and how dare you ask that question'.
This time I felt that your comments were being construed as an inside analysis, because you spoke as if you had first hand knowledge, and I think the perception of the board is that you do. (I could be wrong there too)

If that is the perception then that is on me, and I appoligize for that. In defense of BradyFTW, he is likely one of the smartest guys I have ever talked to, a highly astute observer, and is truly a great person. The internet is never a great way of judging someone as everyone tends to be more cryptic than they would be in personal dealings as everything is public. I have told him about some of the job offers I got after college to pursue a career in football, and asked him to not mention it in a public forum as I don't want it known publicly. If that's an issue, then it is squarely on me for mentioning it but I am not going to discuss it further. He is being respectful to and protective of me, and for that I am greatful. I respectfully ask you to please not press the issue nor hold a grudge towards him as ultimately he is doing me a favor with no alterior motives.

I recognize I can come off as abraisive when not intending to. In most cases, I don't care to explain that because the responses indicate I should have been more abraisive on purpose, but yours does not.

I think we disagree on this issue, but I think we can both agree there is a lot gray in between and neither of have the tools we would really want to have to analyze it more confidently.

I have come off as overly abrasive in the past as well, and I'm sorry for that. You are clearly knowledgeable and present a valid arguement that I will consider and use to help me form a better viewpoint. While we may disagree on certain things, just know that there is respect there and ultimately I think that we can make eachother more observant of the game. I agree with you that we don't have the full compliment of tools to properly evaluate the game, but I do see some flaws in the drawup from what limited perspective I may have. It's an interesting topic of conversation and one I'm looking forward to talking with you about as the season progresses.
 
That has already been said countless times in this thread, 4 times by me at least. That said, two things.

1) Notice how many players you mentioned are on defense, which has nothing to do with the offensive issues.

2) Why would you mentioned Edelman and Vollmer? Both obviously know the system and proved more than capable.

Both Edelman and Vollmer have shown flashes, neither has started and entire season. I wouldn't put either in the rock solid category yet. However, it does seem that they are headed in that direction.
 
Both Edelman and Vollmer have shown flashes, neither has started and entire season. I wouldn't put either in the rock solid category yet. However, it does seem that they are headed in that direction.

I think Vollmer's close; even with his inconsistencies, he's still veteran-caliber in many regards. I'm sure a case can be made for leaving him out, since he hasn't reached his potential yet by a long shot, but OTOH he beat out Kaczur for a reason.

I agree re: Edelman; I think his contributions are overstated by some here. Not to say that he isn't good when he's on the field, but he's had some bad luck with injuries, and his biggest contributions obviously come when Welker's missing (which isn't often).
 
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Out of curiosity, did anyone else get the impression that I was playing Jay up as a Patriots insider? For now, I've written it off as another case of Andy going off the deep end, but if I was giving a sizable group of people that impression, then I'll take note and do whatever I can to clarify that that is not, and never has been, the case.

From what I have seen, no. You've built Jay up as someone who is extremely knowledgeable about the game of football. There's a sharp difference between that and building someone up as a Patriots insider.
 
From what I have seen, no. You've built Jay up as someone who is extremely knowledgeable about the game of football. There's a sharp difference between that and building someone up as a Patriots insider.

I agree completely. I don't know if it helps that I've heard all 20 podcasts, but it's fairly obvious that Jay doesn't have more information that we do, he just can do a whole lot more with it :)
 
OK. I am going to selectively respond so this isnt so long. What I cut is either I just agree or its not a vital point.
Part 1
That's on me for not making that position more clear then, and I appologize if I presented myself as having some form of credential I don't have.
I did not think it was intentionally misrepresenting. My apology if it came off that way.


I think that your comments on part C are completely reasonable and I agree with a lot of what you are saying. I do disagree on parts A and B, however. While our sample is extremely limited, there are things that can be gleaned from the televised game. The continued attempts at establishing the zone blocking scheme is just one example of trying to force a square peg into a round hole. Andy, it's quite clear to me that you know what you are talking about, so you know that at it's most fundamental level the zone is based upon two principals; having a quick hitting tailback with exceptional burst and denying penetration. It simply does not make sense to run zone against a run defense that is predicated upon penetration and not lane/gap integrity. If anyone along the line shoots a gap in a well timed manner it is a blown play. The Jets defense is based upon that exact principal and it was clear that the quick trap/power game was effective because of this very reason. It's one thing to infer about one's acumen and intellect (which I am willing to admit I was likely hyperbolic and undereducated about), while it is another entirely to view what is simply a bad call.
I dont disagree here. I will add that the zone blocking scheme is also effective with a cutback runner with vision to find the seem a least as much as with the quick hitter. My dispute was that you framed your own criticism of OB by defining what he is responsible for and what he isnt, which is not a certainty.






A valid point, but as you know the primary responsibility of the OC is to mitigate playmaking as much as possible, placing the primary emphasis on putting your guys in the best position possible. Holy crap that was a lot of P's. My main beef with the adjustments made through the course of the game on offense is that they rely too much on the athlete doing something spectacular instead of making his job as easy as possible. Is throwing to Moss against single coverage generally a good decision? Sure, but he was blanketed, and it was pretty obvious at least to me that a better job could have been done. If they are going to take away the middle of the field and negate the in-cuts then it is on the OC to change the game to one of working the hashes.
And he did but it failed. As far as Moss, go back and watch. On the Int at the 3, you can see almost all of his route. Moss at 100% makes that catch. He was only blanketed because he loafed. And I'm not killing him for that, loafing when he doesnt expect the ball sets him up when he does, so if it happens rarely I can accept it. The 3rd and 7 is hard to judge because cant see his route, but he had the man beat. On the 2nd and 3 Int, he wasn't blanketed, it was an intentional underthrow and Cromartie wasnt a threat to the play until after Moss tipped it up. A pro receiver should use 2 hands and make that catch. Very different game if those go otherwise. So OB did attack the weakness, and plays were there.



Agreed, and I should have done a better job with that.
In your defense you watched into a board that was hanging the OC in effigy.




I disagree with this, and this has been a major flaw in 12's game starting mid 2007. Moss is so damn good that most QB's will throw a ball into a 1v1 matchup because of the confidence he gives them. That is bad quarterbacking. Instead, he needed to do a better job of identifying the coverage on the backside of the play and looking towards Tate and other avenues rather than continuing to think his receiver is going to come down with the ball consistently against hip2hip coverage with a safety hovering over the top waiting to make a play on a deflected ball. That is just poor decision making that he did not do during what was in my opinion his best season in 2006.

Well, I dont disagree with what you said, but that wasnt what happened in this game. There wasnt safety help. It was one on one. On the 3 plays in question:
-Intentional underthrow....should have been caught. would have if Moss used 2 hands
-Int at the 3. Moss was even when Cromartie turned his hips. Moss wins that against anyone if he is going all out. Cromartie was parallell to the sideline, even with Moss about at the point of the release. 30 yards later Cromartie beat Moss to the ball by 2 yards. If a WR running a go reaches even with the corner when the corner hips have not fully turned yet, it should be over. Check it out on tape, focussing on where Moss is when he arrives at the db, and when the ball is thrown. I actually watched that and then went right to the TD, and it looked like 2 different receivers. Most people see the end of the play and think he wasnt open. When Brady made the throw, he was at the 25 or 30.
-On the 3rd and 7 Moss had him beaten, but either slowed or the ball was overthrown.
There was no safety. As Shanahan says to WRs if you cant beat man, JOhn Elway has 7 car dealerships you can go work at.
I cant fault the thought process of throwing those passes, although I wouldn't argue that you may pass it up based on down, distance and score.



I think that conceptually we are on the same page. I think that it could be argued that herein lies the fundamental flaw with the play design. It is too reliant upon the athlete and not reliant upon the drawup to get his guys into great position. Look at some of the better plays OB drew up this year. TE's vacating coverage, motion selling out coverages, TE's blocking on what basically makes and quick screen, 81 running off exterior coverage to vacate the flats. When it comes down to crunch time, it is pretty clear to me that he becomes overly reliant upon playmaking- not himself to draw up a play that will mentally defeat the opponent.

Interesting. But it is the same playbook. I think if we really were able to dig in to this, we would find that the plays OBrien likes to call are more effective vs some schemes and coverages than against others. He isnt calling throw deep to Moss, he is calling one of many plays that involve Moss going deep.
Without making this excruciatingly long, here is an example.
When we lost to the Packers in 2002, we didnt have a good deep threat, and Brady was not accurate with the deep ball. The Packers consistently left a WR in man coverage (they had backup corners playing top) on 3rd down and dared the Pats to go deep. We had a play that was supposed to work, bit they turned a team that was good at safe 3rd down conversions and made them take the low percentage big payoff play. It felt like they sucked him right in.
That may have happened Sunday, but on an individual play basis, each shot to Moss was warraneted. I guess thats why they say the other guys get paid too.


Definately, and I think that is what it's all about. Anytime you talk football with another knowledgeable guy half the fun is disagreeing about things as it ultimately gives you a better knowledge of the game. Hell, it'd be fun to have a few beers together and look at the tape.
More than a few, and it has to be coaches tape:cool:
 
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Part 2


Sure, if I were calling the plays I would have tested that early. Once it was proved to me that my receiver wasn't going to win the battle, I would have taken advantage of the respect he commands and utilized other players.

But. Limiting it to the deep routes, which really are the issue.
I leave out the bobbled pass in the end zone because it was a different coverage.
The first one was a TD
The second one IMO would have been if Moss out the same effort to it
The third one was a catch that should have been that ended up a one hand attempt turned to Int
The 4th was open and either a hair long or a step slow.
Thats not something that screams give up.

Hell, perhaps even simplifying the read into a two reciever read ala Indy. In a very basic example, run joint routes like the up and out taking advantage of my split end's speed mismatch over Wilson. They were playing tight cushions on the outside, and if I used the arrow in conjunction with the go I could create a pick for my split end. If they went zone, I would drop the ball in over the corner, especially with the FS rolled up to take away the seam. If they went man, I would have a won body positioning battle over the interior defender on either the corner or arrow that would have created an incremental gain. The point that I am driving at is that the simple solutions weren't working. It was pretty clear to me that once the simple solution was taken away it seemed that the playcaller was in over his head.

That supposes the plays run were bad calls and not bad execution. If Moss does what he normally does, Brady doesnt over throw Gronk, and miss Crumpler, all of a sudden we have a half with 6 20+ plays in the passing game, 8 when you count the last drive of the half after they changed their coverages. That would have been considered a tremendous job of adjustment. Think about that.
Thats why its so hard to call it the call or the execution. 2 throws Brady normally makes and 1 east and 1 of 2 not so easy out of Moss, and we would be here talking about how we shredded the Jets and they would be ripping Ryan a new one for abandoning the blitz. Bradyis probably close to 400 yards at that point.
Of course its what if, but its not like I am saying what if Green-Ellis broke 40 tackles. Those were plays that could be made.



If that is the perception then that is on me, and I appoligize for that.
Absolutely not. You did nothing to create that impression. After I asked the initial question another poster copied in what you had posted a month before. Brady FTW then posted something very different which created the issue. Perhaps I should just let it go, but I have a hard time backing off when someone wont just tell the truth and slings insults instead.

In defense of BradyFTW, he is likely one of the smartest guys I have ever talked to, a highly astute observer, and is truly a great person. The internet is never a great way of judging someone as everyone tends to be more cryptic than they would be in personal dealings as everything is public. I have told him about some of the job offers I got after college to pursue a career in football, and asked him to not mention it in a public forum as I don't want it known publicly. If that's an issue, then it is squarely on me for mentioning it but I am not going to discuss it further. He is being respectful to and protective of me, and for that I am greatful. I respectfully ask you to please not press the issue nor hold a grudge towards him as ultimately he is doing me a favor with no alterior motives.

I will do that, but will make one final comment.
I would have absolutely no problem if he chose not to answer the question.
I have no problem with him touting your knowledge.
My problem was that rather than doing just the above, he added that your background was 'vast' and that your knowledge was not by coincidence.

Not it may seem like no big deal. But there was a reason I asked the question.
This is the internet. And there are many selfproclaimed geniuses. I asked because you were being described as a knowledgable guy, and I wanted a yardstick for where your opinions came from. You had answered it a month before, and that answer was complete, and told me you had a background to draw from and werent a gigantic ego who thinks he 'knows more than everyone else combined' because then I would not have bothered to read. Brady FTW presented the ego and avoided the actual question. Everything from there on has just been the same conversation in different forms.
I am very happy that you showed up so I can discuss your opinions directly with you, and I from here on, I will respect your wishes.

I have come off as overly abrasive in the past as well, and I'm sorry for that.
Sadly in this atmosphere sometimes you have to be good at being a dlck to deal with some of the noise, but more sadly sometimes it gets directed to the wrong people.

You are clearly knowledgeable and present a valid arguement that I will consider and use to help me form a better viewpoint. While we may disagree on certain things, just know that there is respect there and ultimately I think that we can make eachother more observant of the game. I agree with you that we don't have the full compliment of tools to properly evaluate the game, but I do see some flaws in the drawup from what limited perspective I may have. It's an interesting topic of conversation and one I'm looking forward to talking with you about as the season progresses.
And, when all is said and done, history says the issues we see in week 2 will give way to a different set of issues in week 7.

I am going to go back and listen to the podcast again with a different perspective. Thanks for taking the time to be civil.
 
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