PatsCast Episode 20 (with Jay Shields, postgame analysis)

[Ring 6]

I have not listened yet, and will post any more thoughts I have after I do.
As far as the back and forth here it seems kind of pointless.
People have reached there own conclusion before debating, or even analyzing the facts.
If you think it is coaching, you can take every lack of success and say it was the coaches fault the play didnt work.
If you think it was execution, you can cite the failed execution on the failed play.
How do you ever agree in that argument? Both sides are using the failure as the proof of their argument.

I think the facts are being pretty well ignored too.
The play calling Sunday was markedly different in the second half than the first, so that by definition is adjustment.
The 2nd half problem has occured in 5 of the last 18 games, not for 18 straight weeks as is being implied.
The performance of this team on the road, and specifically in the 2nd half on the road certainly has been an issue. To say coaching has nothing to do with that is ignoring reality.

The truth is that Sunday was the 2010 team and 2009 was a different team. The fact that the 2010 team had a problem in game 2 that the 2009 one shared in 4 games really doesnt tell us anything.

If the problem is second half play on the road, why is no one blaming conditioning?

When I watch the offense in the first half vs the Jets, I see a pretty effective offense that could have been shut out if a few plays didnt go their way. (You could say that about any team any game) In the second half I see an offense that was in exactly the same position to make the plays, but didnt. I dont know how the coaches call a play that tells Moss that you are supposed to use 2 hands to catch the ball (he could have and didnt on the 2nd int) or to call the play that tells him to go after the pass on the first int as hard as he did on the TD (you only have to look at the 2 plays to see a big difference.) Moss was even with Cromartie when Cromartie left his backpedal and turned his hips. Moss should beat him to that ball 100 times out of 100 from that starting point. The OL allowed no sacks in the first half, and one that killed a drive in the second.
There is that thin a line between 0 and 21 points. There really is no doubt there were plays there to be executed. I guess the argument boils down to whether you expect the players to be able to execute or whether you expect the coaches to call plays that are so easy to execute you can't fail. I don't believe thats possible.

 

[Deus Irae]

Has anyone tried to compare this offense to the 2007 one? Of course not; that's a straw man, plain and simple. The only person trying to make that comparison is you. In fact, let's throw the 2007 team out altogether, if it makes you feel better.

Actually, some have. Here are a couple of examples:

...BOTTOM LINE
Even with this year's tough schedule, the offense could equal 2007 if we acquired a short yardage RB who can block. Perhaps belichick thinks he has these skiss in house.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/355800-do-we-need-6-wide-receivers-page3.html#post1873997

I posted elsewhere in this forum, not sure what thread, that I believe that this year's team is a better team overall than the 2007 team that went undefeated in the regular season and established a lot of team and individual offensive records...

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/355800-do-we-need-6-wide-receivers-page3.html#post1874035

Not surprisingly, given their lofty evaluations of the current team, both of the above posters are putting the onus for the loss on the playcalling.

Look at the 2008 team; in the five close games that the team played, it scored more in the second half four times (close = 1 possession game). Or, if you prefer, go back to 2006; in the seven close games that that team played, it scored more in the second half five times. The 2005 team played 7 close games, and scored more in the second half in six of them. Are you going to try to claim that the 2005 offense had fewer question marks than the 2010 one?

The 2010 team has played 1 close game. That's it. There's nothing that can be compared to full seasons. Also, in 2006, the first half/second half scoring split was 3/4, not 2/5. Lastly, the split issue means essentially nothing without context. Possession, holding onto lead v. coming from behind, and other issues, all have to be looked at.

It used to be a hallmark of the Patriots that they played better in the second half than in the first, especially in close games. It was one of my favorite characteristics of the team, and one of the major reasons why I always defended McDaniels against his detractors. Once both teams had seen what the other was throwing at them, he simply outcoached the opposition.

Since O'Brien arrived, the team has played 8 close games, and scored more in the second half in two of them. Those two games were week 1 and week 17 of last season. You can pretend that there isn't a stark difference if you want, but the numbers don't lie. The sample size is plenty large enough.

Actually, I've got no problem pointing out the scoring difference. The difference between your position and mine, besides your mistake in the 8-8 thing, is that I'm not willing to blame the coordinators for pulling out a 10 win season with the crappy ass players they were stuck with.

And FWIW, for anyone who cares to throw 2007 into the mix, the Pats played four close games that season, and scored more in the second half in three of them.

Indeed, even in 2007, the team didn't always 'step up' in the second half of close games.

 

[SuperPatsFan]

Bottom line: Some of us can see when a guy really knows football, and some of us can see when a guy's a fraud.

 

[JMarr]

Thanks guys, great job. It's really nice to be able to rest the eyes for awhile and listen to some great insights. :rocker:

GREAT point about the "coaching budget" possibly being a problem.

I agree with a most of Jay's points, except for the "it's all on the coaching" is obviously an exaggeration, and I think the degree of his skewering and scapegoating of Bill O'Brien is a bit over the top. As people have stated in other threads, Brady, Butler, Ninkovich, and to a lesser extent, Merriweather and Koppen all pretty much all sucked b@lls on Sunday. No other way to slice it.

Also, couldn't disagree more with with Jay's take on BJGE. Dude, Antowain Smith >>> BJGE. Throw away blocking schemes, playcalling, practicing hard...everything--BJGE is the uberJAG of all time. It's the height of arrogance and/or ignorance to assume you can plug in a guy like BJGE and have a successful running game like we had with Smith and Dillon.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Actually, some have. Here are a couple of examples:



http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/355800-do-we-need-6-wide-receivers-page3.html#post1873997



http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/355800-do-we-need-6-wide-receivers-page3.html#post1874035

Not surprisingly, given their lofty evaluations of the current team, both of the above posters are putting the onus for the loss on the playcalling.

Those are random posts from over a month ago on a completely different topic, made by posters who aren't even participating in this thread. Completely irrelevant to this discussion.

The 2010 team has played 1 close game. That's it. There's nothing that can be compared to full seasons. Also, in 2006, the first half/second half scoring split was 3/4, not 2/5. Lastly, the split issue means essentially nothing without context. Possession, holding onto lead v. coming from behind, and other issues, all have to be looked at.

It hasn't played any close games. Both were 2 TD margins. To get the numbers that you did, you must have used a different standard for close: I stated pretty clearly that mine is a one-possession differential (i.e. 8 points or less). If you have a different definition of close, I'd be curious to hear why you chose it.

Actually, I've got no problem pointing out the scoring difference. The difference between your position and mine, besides your mistake in the 8-8 thing, is that I'm not willing to blame the coordinators for pulling out a 10 win season with the crappy ass players they were stuck with.

Which team was stuck with crappy ass players? Bill O'Brien last year? Not only would I disagree with that on a fundamental level, but it doesn't even matter since talent level of players is accounted for when you're comparing the team against itself earlier in the same game.

Indeed, even in 2007, the team didn't always 'step up' in the second half of close games.

Not all the time, no. Just three times as often. No team does it all the time, but throughout the Belichick era the team has consistently managed it, right up until 2009.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Also, couldn't disagree more with with Jay's take on BJGE. Dude, Antowain Smith >>> BJGE. Throw away blocking schemes, playcalling, practicing hard...everything--BJGE is the uberJAG of all time. It's the height of arrogance and/or ignorance to assume you can plug in a guy like BJGE and have a successful running game like we had with Smith and Dillon.

FWIW, I heard it a little differently: I didn't take what Jay was saying to mean that BJGE is equivalent to Smith, but more that he has similar limitations, and that it's entirely possible to scheme around those limitations. As for whether or not BJGE is capable of succeeding in the NFL, who knows. I'm definitely rooting for the guy, I can say that.

And re: execution problems, granted there were a lot of them. In fact, we pretty much ignored even talking about the defense, since we expect them to make a ton of mistakes being as young as they are. We focused on the offense because we're disappointed that it can so consistently be shut down in the second half even though we have, at the very least, one of the better offensive units in the NFL by a large margin. I hesitate to say one of the best, since if I do that DI might assume that I'm making the 2007 comparison that nobody's actually making.

 

[Deus Irae]

Those are random posts from over a month ago on a completely different topic, made by posters who aren't even participating in this thread. Completely irrelevant to this discussion.

Not irrelevant to my point about 2007.

It hasn't played any close games. Both were 2 TD margins. To get the numbers that you did, you must have used a different standard for close: I stated pretty clearly that mine is a one-possession differential (i.e. 8 points or less). If you have a different definition of close, I'd be curious to hear why you chose it.

1.) The Jets game was a close game. The score belied that.

2.) I used your 7 point requirement.

3.) "Close" doesn't matter when all you're doing is looking at the scores. It ignores the backdoor cover sort of things. That your missing and claiming it's accounted for doesn't make it so. Any coach worth his salt will tell you that you can eventually shut down the opponent's best player if you're willing to invest the resources to do so, unless he's world's beyond everyone else. It's a bit different when that best player is a QB, because he's shielded by the offensive line, but any other position can be stopped if a team is willing to devote enough resources to doing it.

Which team was stuck with crappy ass players? Bill O'Brien last year? Not only would I disagree with that on a fundamental level, but it doesn't even matter since talent level of players is accounted for when you're comparing the team against itself earlier in the same game.

1.) Get back to me when Aiken becomes more than a crappy receiver and Baker becomes more than a crappy TE.

2.) Talent level is not accounted for in your argument, which is an important point.

Not all the time, no. Just three times as often. No team does it all the time, but throughout the Belichick era the team has consistently managed it, right up until 2009.

If no team does it all the time, then complaining about it after the first time of the season is nonsensical. Of course, this Jets game doesn't even fit into your 7 point criteria, meaning your point was moot with regards to this game anyway.

 

[Ring 6]

Andy, where do you believe O'Brien falls in the NFL as far as coordinators go?

See thats the point, I don't have enough information to judge him. No one outside of the team knows how much power and decision making he has.
I can't make up what I think his duties are and the judge him based on guessing that right.
Last year we scored the 3rd most points. We likely had the 3rd best talent. Thats mitigated by Brady's year away from football.
I think the offensive coaching staff did an above average job last year.

 

[jays52]

Dude, some people on the interwebs are just straight up insane.

 

[Oswlek]

This year's offense has a huge problem at left guard, a problem at running back, Welker coming back from ACL/MCL surgery and being backup up by a seemingly fragile Edelman, inexperience at TE and, still, a question mark at receiver outside of Moss/Welker/Edelman. People are acting as if this is 2007 redux, when it's nowhere near that.

I'm not claiming that playcalling is perfect. Nothing is perfect. I'm noting that playcalling isn't the problem.

LG - this is a "problem area" you've been preaching that hasn't actually materialized on the field. If you want to give Dan poor grades for run blocking, so be it. But his pass blocking in both games has been a plus performance for any player.

Welker - yes, he is coming back from surgery. But, again, his performance on the field has been a plus. Is it is good as 2008 Welker? Of course not. But few teams in the league have a better second option than even a limited Welker.

Edelman - It would be better if he saw the field, but he hasn't. That doesn't change anything about who has seen the field.

Tate - I'll grant you that he hasn't proven much, but he seems to make plays whenever he gets the ball in his hands. Too soon to know whether he isn't targetted because he can't get open or because the team isn't utilizing him enough, but I'll give you this one.

TE - Inexperience might be an issues, but Hernandez was probably the best receiving option on the field Sunday. And both Gronk/Alge are better blockers than anyone NE has lined up since 2007. No matter how you look at it, this group is a significant upgrade over the 2009 unit.

Your expectations are amazingly high. Apparently only units like the 2009 Saints have enough talent to be successful in the 2nd halves of road games.

 

[Oswlek]

The 2nd half problem has occured in 5 of the last 18 games

I'm not sure how this could be accurate. As I wrote earlier, this is NE's scoring in 2009 road games split per half and excluding the Bucs which was a neutral field.

9/0
17/0
24/10
10/7
14/7
14/3
13/14

Only one time did the team score more in the 2nd half. Since they went 1-6 in those games it has to be assumed that they weren't running out the clock. Even in the win they only scored 3 second half points in a 7 point. That means NE had a second half issue in 6 games just last year. Add in this past weekend and NE has had 2nd half scoring problems in 7 of their last 9 road games.

Do you really not see a trend here?

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm not sure how this could be accurate. As I wrote earlier, this is NE's scoring in 2009 road games split per half and excluding the Bucs which was a neutral field.

9/0
17/0
24/10
10/7
14/7
14/3
13/14

Only one time did the team score more in the 2nd half. Since they went 1-6 in those games it has to be assumed that they weren't running out the clock. Even in the win they only scored 3 second half points in a 7 point. That means NE had a second half issue in 6 games just last year. Add in this past weekend and NE has had 2nd half scoring problems in 7 of their last 9 road games.

Do you really not see a trend here?

If it's a "coaching" issue I see no reason why road vs. home would be the issue. If the "second half fade" only happens on the road then it seems like it's players not fighting enough in a tough environment vs. coaching issues. I didn't take the time to look up the first half vs. second half splits at home last year but based on how your post was written I'll assume the splits weren't as dramatic as on the road.

 

[Oswlek]

If it's a "coaching" issue I see no reason why road vs. home would be the issue. If the "second half fade" only happens on the road then it seems like it's players not fighting enough in a tough environment vs. coaching issues. I didn't take the time to look up the first half vs. second half splits at home last year but based on how your post was written I'll assume the splits weren't as dramatic as on the road.

Funny, I was waiting for Deus to point that out. I've known that was a Mac truck sized hole in my argument since I first posted it.

You are correct that the splits aren't skewed in any way with home games. Only a couple break like that, but they are games NE led by at least 3 scores at halftime. All the others are virtually split down the middle.

That said, and the real issue with finding causation, is that coaching and execution are intertwined at a level we as fans have a hard time undoing. Barring someone being a tremendous flop, only over time can it become clear that the coach was the issue. I point to Cowher again. Despite several generations of players, his teams were consistently successful bullies who had no answer when the other guy proved equally tough.

I stood up for BoB all year in 2009. I pointed to McD's early career struggles with the 2005 team, and the lack of weapons at WR/TE the same way Deus is now. But this is a new team with a healthier Brady, better weapons at both WR and TE and the issues persist. I'm an optimist by nature and am willing to give him more time.

Back to execution/coaching for a second. Even a bad play call can be successfully executed, the same way a good play call can be poorly executed. At home, when you have the energy and noise in your favor you are more likely to do the pull off the former.

The young defense I can see continued struggles, but the offense is a veteran laden group that is a top 10 unit without question. That is the area that bothers me. If it isn't coaching, who are the players that can dominate in the first half and then fold in the 2nd?

 

[BelichickFan]

Funny, I was waiting for Deus to point that out. I've known that was a Mac truck sized hole in my argument since I first posted it.

You are correct that the splits aren't skewed in any way with home games. Only a couple break like that, but they are games NE led by at least 3 scores at halftime. All the others are virtually split down the middle.

That said, and the real issue with finding causation, is that coaching and execution are intertwined at a level we as fans have a hard time undoing. Barring someone being a tremendous flop, only over time can it become clear that the coach was the issue. I point to Cowher again. Despite several generations of players, his teams were consistently successful bullies who had no answer when the other guy proved equally tough.

I stood up for BoB all year in 2009. I pointed to McD's early career struggles with the 2005 team, and the lack of weapons at WR/TE the same way Deus is now. But this is a new team with a healthier Brady, better weapons at both WR and TE and the issues persist. I'm an optimist by nature and am willing to give him more time.

Back to execution/coaching for a second. Even a bad play call can be successfully executed, the same way a good play call can be poorly executed. At home, when you have the energy and noise in your favor you are more likely to do the pull off the former.

The young defense I can see continued struggles, but the offense is a veteran laden group that is a top 10 unit without question. That is the area that bothers me. If it isn't coaching, who are the players that can dominate in the first half and then fold in the 2nd?

I have a hard time with what Jay is selling. Maybe Billy doesn't have the cult of personality to push the offense on the road but that's not what Jay is saying, he's talking about his adjustments, his intelligence and his playcalling. Somehow I doubt that his halftime adjustments are better at home than on the road. Maybe they are, but I don't buy it.

 

[Oswlek]

I have a hard time with what Jay is selling. Maybe Billy doesn't have the cult of personality to push the offense on the road but that's not what Jay is saying, he's talking about his adjustments, his intelligence and his playcalling. Somehow I doubt that his halftime adjustments are better at home than on the road. Maybe they are, but I don't buy it.

Again, they could be equally mediocre at home and on the road and it would present itself more on the road.

 

[emoney_33]

I have a hard time with what Jay is selling. Maybe Billy doesn't have the cult of personality to push the offense on the road but that's not what Jay is saying, he's talking about his adjustments, his intelligence and his playcalling. Somehow I doubt that his halftime adjustments are better at home than on the road. Maybe they are, but I don't buy it.

If the players have a tougher time executing on the road, then suboptimal play design/calls will have a more negative impact on the road. It is certainly not black and white with any one party completely at fault. Coaches can mask players inefficiencies and players can mask coaches inefficiencies. When neither one is masking the other, all hell breaks loose... or something.

Whatever the case I really hope it doesn't show up in 2 weeks.

 

[BradyManny]

If it's a "coaching" issue I see no reason why road vs. home would be the issue. If the "second half fade" only happens on the road then it seems like it's players not fighting enough in a tough environment vs. coaching issues. I didn't take the time to look up the first half vs. second half splits at home last year but based on how your post was written I'll assume the splits weren't as dramatic as on the road.

I don't have the splits in front of me either, I'll try and take a look shortly, but I think there's an angle you haven't considered (forgive me if this has been brought up, I haven't read the whole thread).

Which is - what is the tangible effect of playing on the road vs. home?

Some would say "pressure", "discomfort" - I don't think these are that tangible. I find it hard to believe that Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, that O-Line are honestly affected by those issues. The team keeps talking about will & determination, but who is the weak link in the character department? It certainly isn't any of those guys.

No, rather, the tangible effect of road vs. home is in-game communication.

Let's apply Jays52 line of thinking to this. He says that the original gameplan the Patriots come out with is always well-suited for its opponent. Seems true, we've been rolling over teams for the first halves of games for a year+ now. He then says the team has trouble adjusting to the defense's counter as the game goes on.

At home, where communication is not an issue (thanks to that "friendly" Gillette crowd), a) the call gets in more smoothly & Brady probably has more time to make his pre-snap reads b) has more time to make any adjustments to those reads c) has the ability to verbally communicate those adjusments to his receivers and line.

Matt Light alluded to communication himself:

"I think tempo wise we could have done a much better job in the second half of getting up to the line scrimmage and making decisions and getting after them but communication wise was alright for playing on the road and against that team and doing some of the things the way they do it."

I interpret that as communication slowed down the playcalling process, and the process of any adjustments at the line.

Meaning, Brady and the OL are probably left to the original call from BoB, whereas at home, Brady has more time to read and react to the D, pre-snap.

So I do believe that coaching-wise, there is a logical explanation for why the home v. road woes exist, and why its connected to the issue of adjustments and counters that Jays52 talks about.

 

[Ring 6]

Dude, some people on the interwebs are just straight up insane.

Thats an interesting approach. Actually answering the questions would be another.
I guess you know me as well as you know OBrien so you are as much an expert on my sanity as his intellect.

 

[Kontradiction]

You guys are missing the point. We're returning a top five defense from last season and the Jets have the worst offense in the NFL.

 

[jays52]

Thats an interesting approach. Actually answering the questions would be another.
I guess you know me as well as you know OBrien so you are as much an expert on my sanity as his intellect.

Hey man, I just evaluate what I see presented in front of me. Lighten up, sweetheart, you're going to have a stroke.