I expect a coach as aggressive as Ryan is going to trust Revis to cover Moss 1-on-1 with hopes of either freeing up Rhodes to cover Welker or adding him to a pass rush that is currently lacking Calvin Pace.
The key to the Pats O vs. Jets D matchup is going to be the offense's recognition of Rhodes. Revis will contain Moss to an extent. Moss will catch a few balls and a TD, but this game belongs to the Welker/Galloway/Watson/Baker/Faulk types. If Rhodes is blitzing, there will be mismatches downfield, and Galloway and Watson should make plays. If Rhodes drops into coverage, Welker and the RBs can feast on the lack of depth inside.
This is a coach's battle. The team that masks it's intentions best will win this one. If so, I like New England's odds.
Very nice analysis. Aggressive is the key word for the Jets. They have worked themselves up into a fury. The Pats, on the other hand, will be cool and collected, and will try to take advantage of that aggressiveness.
Some thoughts:
1. I agree the Jets put Revis on Moss 1-on-1. I don't think any CB can totally shut down Moss, but I think Revis contains him. I hope TB doesn't try to force it to Moss, but instead uses his other receivers, as you have mentioned. The Jets can't cover all of them. I think Moss gets something like 6 catches for 80 yards and 1-2 TDs.
2. I think the Pats will try to use the Jets' aggressiveness against them, with delayed runs, screen passes and short rhythm patterns to take advantage of the blitz and overpursuit. Rhodes is a fine safety, but very aggressive, and obviously very pumped up for this game. I expect him to be the victim of his own adrenaline to some extent, and possibly Bart Scott too. Scott is probably still smarting from the dumb penalty he got which was critical in the 2007 Baltimore game. The Pats will remain cool, and the Jets will get frustrated if things don't go their way. Welker should get a lot of yards after the catch.
3. Outside of Jenkins, the Jets DL doesn't have enough weapons to overpower the Pats' OL. Koppen will likely need help in the middle, but our tackles should be able to handle the ends. Picking up the blitz will be key, but we should have TE help. Jenkins will wear down by the 4th quarter.
I personally think the Pats offense will have a big day. If Galloway can get in sync with Brady he could have a big day. I predict TB throws for around 320 yards and 4 TD passes (most likely 1 each to Moss, Galloway, Watson and Baker), and we run for around 120 yards. Kevin Faulk will have a big day.
I predict a close first half with the Pats up something like 14-10 and the Jets thinking they can pull it off. A long 3rd quarter drive breaks their back and puts the Pats up 21-10. Then the Jets get frustrated and tired, and TB goes for the jugular with 3 4th quarter TDs, for a 42-10 final score. The media screams foul against the Pats for running up the score.