Pats Off-season Review (Pre-Free Agency Edition) - Defense

[chunkypony]

ILB: I see Fletcher being signed. He has patriot envy after losing to them yearly, plus two members of the Pats staff are his college buddies. He would feel comfortable, play for a winner, and stick it to a Buffalo team he felt treated him poorly last season. If Edgerton Hartwell is cut he is an option. His torn achilles (which happened vs. the Pats in '05) usually takes a full season to recover (see Julian Peterson). Those two signings, plus drafting a young ILB prospect who could have a year to develop before seeing significant action (I like Siler, D. Harris, Tim Shaw as prospects), would do alot to shore up the ILB position.

OLB: TBC is a difficult call. He beat D. Ferguson in the playoff game for 2 sacks, but there is no denying the defense suffered vs. the run after his insertion into the lineup. The drop off was dramatic. Where the blame lies can be debated, but the results were bleak. I would like to see a dynamic player at OLB for the Pats, a player who can change games and force an offense to game plan. None of the Pats OLBs does that. The only free agent who could have that kind of impact is Adalius Thomas, though he is already close to 30 years old. The Pats pattern is not to invest too heavily in players of that age, and Thomas will demand top dollar. Prospects in the draft who may provide a long term answer are Jarvis Moss, A. Spencer, J. Moore. However, none of them is likely to help next season in a meaningful way... and even if they could the Pats don't often give a rookie that kind of playing time barring injury to a vet. My recommendation is to move Vrabel back to OLB, leave the OLB corps as is, and draft a dynamic young player who can be the position's bridge to the future. My preference is Spencer, a player of freakish strength who can rush the passer and hold the point of attack.

I think if the Pats sign Fletcher and Jarret Johnson, as well as drafting some quality depth at the position, the team is set for 2007.

 

[pats63]

I think if the Pats sign Fletcher and Jarret Johnson, as well as drafting some quality depth at the position, the team is set for 2007.

I agree with you 100%....Go for value and spend it in other needs...I can wait for next season(12 month season for people here):eat3:

 

[JackBauer]

BTW, It was Aaron Moorehead who burned Alexander on one play. Moorehead is the Colts 3rd TE.

Actually, it was Brian Fletcher, who is the Colts 3rd TE.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

OLB: TBC is a difficult call. He beat D. Ferguson in the playoff game for 2 sacks, but there is no denying the defense suffered vs. the run after his insertion into the lineup. The drop off was dramatic. Where the blame lies can be debated, but the results were bleak.

The Patriots' week by week NFL Rush Defense ranking:
- Week 1: 16
- Week 2: 08
- Week 3: 16
- Week 4: 13
- Week 5: 08
- Week 6: 08
- Week 7: 06
- Week 8: 03
- Week 9: 03
- Week 10: 03
- Week 11: 02
- Week 12: 03
- Week 13: 03
- Week 14: 03
- Week 15: 04
- Week 16: 05
- Week 17: 05

Yep, the Pats' rush defense went to heck in a hand basket with TBC in the line-up. (Must have been his play in game 1.)
He's just a JAG. (Which explains why the Jets who want to get better to compete with the Pats are rumored to be targeting him.)

So New England ended the season the #5 rush defense in the NFL up from #2 in week 11, they played without Harrison, Seau, and Wilfork for most of that period - a gaping hole right up the middle. But somehow the consensus has TBC as the weakest link in the rush defense. Go figure.

For the record:
- TBC started in 5 games and playing in 16 had 40 Total Tackles (10 on Special Teams), 5.5 sacks, 10 QBH, 1 PD, and 1 FF.
For grins and giggles, lets compare TBC to Rosey:
- 15 starts with 16 games played, 59 Total Tackles, 8.5 sacks, 26 QBH, 3 PD, 1 FF, and 1 FR.

Just to be thorough, let's compare post-season data:
- TBC started 2 games and played in 3 with 6 Total Tackles, 2 sacks, 5 QBH, 1 PD, and 1 FR.
- Rosey started 3 games with 10 Total Tackles, 1 sack, 4 QBH, 1 INT, 1 PD, and 1FF.

I'm sure this data will be ignored in favor of Len Pasqurelli's wisdom, but for the one or two of you who consider this information, I'd say the numbers speak quite well for TBC when compared to the one player on the team who consistently played the same position throughout the season.

- Source: Patriots' Final 2006 Season Media Release

 

[PonyExpress]

The Patriots' week by week NFL Rush Defense ranking:
- Week 1: 16
- Week 2: 08
- Week 3: 16
- Week 4: 13
- Week 5: 08
- Week 6: 08
- Week 7: 06
- Week 8: 03
- Week 9: 03
- Week 10: 03
- Week 11: 02
- Week 12: 03
- Week 13: 03
- Week 14: 03
- Week 15: 04
- Week 16: 05
- Week 17: 05

Yep, the Pats' rush defense went to heck in a hand basket with TBC in the line-up. (Must have been his play in game 1.)
He's just a JAG. (Which explains why the Jets who want to get better to compete with the Pats are rumored to be targeting him.)

So New England ended the season the #5 rush defense in the NFL up from #2 in week 11, they played without Harrison, Seau, and Wilfork for most of that period - a gaping hole right up the middle. But somehow the consensus has TBC as the weakest link in the rush defense. Go figure.

For the record:
- TBC started in 5 games and playing in 16 had 40 Total Tackles (10 on Special Teams), 5.5 sacks, 10 QBH, 1 PD, and 1 FF.
For grins and giggles, lets compare TBC to Rosey:
- 15 starts with 16 games played, 59 Total Tackles, 8.5 sacks, 26 QBH, 3 PD, 1 FF, and 1 FR.

Just to be thorough, let's compare post-season data:
- TBC started 2 games and played in 3 with 6 Total Tackles, 2 sacks, 5 QBH, 1 PD, and 1 FR.
- Rosey started 3 games with 10 Total Tackles, 1 sack, 4 QBH, 1 INT, 1 PD, and 1FF.

I'm sure this data will be ignored in favor of Len Pasqurelli's wisdom, but for the one or two of you who consider this information, I'd say the numbers speak quite well for TBC when compared to the one player on the team who consistently played the same position throughout the season.

- Source: Patriots' Final 2006 Season Media Release

The information you offer on the Pats run defense is misleading while being factually correct. Though the Pats managed to end the regular season with the 5th ranked rush defense in the NFL, that is more a testament to how dominant they were prior to Seau's injury, than to their quality once TBC was inserted into the lineup. For example:

Pats run defense raw numbers

With Seau healthy and TBC as rotational player
(carries/yards/average)
week 1 vs. Buff: 24/99/4.1
week 2 vs NYJ: 24/51/2.1
week 3 vs Den: 34/144/4.2
week 4 vs. Cin: 17/71/4.2
week 5 vs. Mia: 21/62/3.0
week 7 vs Buff: 25/75/3.0
week 8 vs. Min: 15/45/3.0
week 9 vs. Ind: 25/53/2.1
week 10 vs. NY: 29/117/4.0
week 11 vs GB: 16/44/2.8

Totals with Seau healthy in starting lineup and TBC as rotational player:
10 games/76.1 yards per game (3rd in NFL)/3.3 yards per carry (3rd in NFL)

week 12 vs. Chi: before Seau's injury in 2nd Q: 11/34/3.1
week 12 vs. Chi: after Seau's injury: 22/108/4.9

With TBC in starting line-up
week 13 vs Det: 22/77/3.5
week 14 vs Mia: 25/123/4.9
week 15 vs Hou:22/105/4.8
week 16 vs Jak: 22/144/6.5
week 17 vs Ten: 25/135/5.4
week 18 vs NYJ: 16/70/4.4
week 19 vs. SD: 33/148/4.5
week 20 vs. Ind: 30/125/4.2

Totals with TBC as starter:
8 games/115.9 yards per game (15th in NFL)/4.8 yards per rush (29th in NFL)

NOTE: if the Chicago 2nd half is extrapolated over a full game, the Pats would have been allowing 125 yards rushing per game after Seau's injury, a mark which would have ranked 21st in the NFL over the full season.

Observations:
Prior to Seau's injury, in 10 games the Pats allowed 100 yards only twice, and 6 times held their opponents to under 3 yards per rush or less. After Seau's injury, with TBC the only personnel change to the LBing corps, the Pats allowed 100 yards rushing or more 6 times in 8 games (7 times in 9 if the Chicago 2nd half is counted), and allowed their opponents to rush for over 4 yards per carry every game except vs. Detroit. One of the 3-4's strengths is the ability to prevent long running plays by creating a defense in depth. Prior to Seau's injury the Pats' longest run allowed was 21 yards. After his injury, the Pats allowed 4 runs of 34 yards or longer.

Conclusion
The Pats run defense was tremendous prior to Seau's injury. After his injury, with TBC the only newcomer in the starting line-up, the Pats run defense was at best mediocre. The blame may partially fall on the need to shuffle positions in the LBing corps, requiring players to learn new run fits. Strangely (or appropriately) the best performance of that reshuffled group was its 1st one vs Detroit. After that game the run defense allowed an average of over 120 yards per game and 4.9 yards per rush. Any objective observer would call that putrid by Patriot standards. To say that TBC played no role in this issue is whistling past the graveyard. In the offseason all players must be reevaluated and held to account. That goes for every member of the LBing group. Colvin was frequently a step late getting to the QB, and TBC IMO is already the superior pass rusher. Bruschi is struggling to fight off blocks and in coverage. All 3 LB positions on the Pats could frankly use an upgrade if the unit is to become dominant. Even if TBC is resigned, and I hope he is, the unit needs youth to build a bridge to the future.

 

[everlong]

Conclusion
The Pats run defense was tremendous prior to Seau's injury. After his injury, with TBC the only newcomer in the starting line-up, the Pats run defense was at best mediocre. The blame may partially fall on the need to shuffle positions in the LBing corps, requiring players to learn new run fits. Strangely (or appropriately) the best performance of that reshuffled group was its 1st one vs Detroit. After that game the run defense allowed an average of over 120 yards per game and 4.9 yards per rush. Any objective observer would call that putrid by Patriot standards. To say that TBC played no role in this issue is whistling past the graveyard. In the offseason all players must be reevaluated and held to account. That goes for every member of the LBing group. Colvin was frequently a step late getting to the QB, and TBC IMO is already the superior pass rusher. Bruschi is struggling to fight off blocks and in coverage. All 3 LB positions on the Pats could frankly use an upgrade if the unit is to become dominant. Even if TBC is resigned, and I hope he is, the unit needs youth to build a bridge to the future.

I think this is pretty accurate. The one thing I would add and I don't have any statistical data to back it so it's my perception but Colvin is a far superior player on his natural right side vs the left side. I know people will point to the SD game where Colvin had one of his best games over there but over all he better on the right which is also the only spot you can play TBC at.

I do agree with BOR that TBC is more than a Jag but I don't think he's a 3 down guy either. It's very similar to Green where you want to play him in situations that better fit his skill set. If the Jets want to pay him like an every down guy I think they'll let him walk.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

With TBC in starting line-up
week 13 vs Det: 22/77/3.5
week 14 vs Mia: 25/123/4.9 TBC did not start
week 15 vs Hou:22/105/4.8 First game with Wright at NT, Smith at NT, Hill, Woods, and Mays all got second half reps.
week 16 vs Jak: 22/144/6.5 TBC's fault entirely for not re-tackling MJD and preventing a 74 yd run - still, do you expect perfection for his third start? Adjusted numbers: 21/70/3.3, if only he had drilled that player down on the ground.
week 17 vs Ten: 25/135/5.4 Hill, Alexander, and I don't know who else got reps in this game.
week 18 vs NYJ: 16/70/4.4 70 yds is bad?
week 19 vs. SD: 33/148/4.5 Game plan, limit Gates, slow LdT and force him back inside...what was the final result for this game against the #1 team featuring the league MVP anyway?
week 20 vs. Ind: 30/125/4.2 Who started at OLB?

Conclusion
The Pats run defense was tremendous prior to Seau's injury. After his injury, with TBC the only newcomer in the starting line-up, the Pats run defense was at best mediocre.

TBC was the "only newcomer" in the starting line-up? James Sanders, Mike Wright, and Eric Alexander all come to mind. Hill, Woods, Smith, and Mays got reps either against Houston, Tennessee, or both. Seymour was playing with an elbow brace and had a procedure on his knee after the season, was he even 90% for any given game in the second half? If you go back and watch, especially against San Diego, Jarvis was spelling him more often than we've seen in the past.

Your argument is based on one player being the problem in a team sport. There were three other young players who earned starts during the period you are using to critique TBC, yet you fail to adjust for their presence as injury replacements. You credit TBC for starts in 8 games, he actually started 6 - oddly enough, the two games he didn't start were both losses. I'm sure we could jump to a new conclusion if we only look at that result.

You are basing your analysis on one statistic, YPG, and drawing the conclusion that one player was responsible, this is not your best analysis PE. And we haven't even made an attempt to determine if Tedy wore down as the season progressed and became a liability as some sports' articles and fan posts have opined.

I did not anticipate the next coming of Willie McGinest when TBC went in as an injury replacement, but I knew TBC could do the job from watching him against Buffalo. He didn't disappoint me and, judging from his statistics when compared to Colvin's, he was nearly as productive number-wise as Rosey. The team may be better replacing TBC in the line-up, but I need more than 100 yds/game and a scarlett letter to be convinced of that circumstance.

 

[everlong]

week 19 vs. SD: 33/148/4.5 Game plan, limit Gates, slow LdT and force him back inside...what was the final result for this game against the #1 team featuring the league MVP anyway?

He was getting sealed every single play by a TE, granted a mammoth one bust still. He didn't record a tackle, assist or sack in that game and they were running that way a lot. Maybe my perception of him is distorted from that game but I really don't remember him being a force against the run at all this year. I think he's a good situational guy but not an every down guy especially against a power team like the Chargers.

We have them at home this year do you have any faith in him on that side even with a healthy Seymour in that situation? I cannot say I do.

 

[Rob0729]

I think d-line we are pretty much set. We can add a little more depth, but nothing signficant.

With the LB corp, we need a lot of starter help inside and we need a rotational guy like McGinest was with Vrabel and Colvin a few years back. I assume we will resign Gardner and Seau which will provide depth and situational players. That will give you a lot of rotational help, but I don't think we have a full-time starter among our ILBs. Bruschi is going to be a two down ILB and so is Seau. Do we bring in Adalius Thomas to play inside or is he more of an outside guy (Vrabel can then rotate to both positions)? Can we afford Thomas? There are a lot of LBs out there who might fill in the role as an ILB, but are there any starting quality ones or are they Monty Beisel type risks?

As for the secondary, I am very hesistant about resigning Samuel. Guys who explode in their contract year tend to fall off after getting that coushy contract. I would rather overpay for Clement who was built to play Belichick's press coverage style of CB play. I think Hobbs will rebound with his wrist healthy (he played Reggie Wayne very well in the AFCC). We need a little more depth at the position.

I think the safety position is a concern. Wilson and Harrison are both health question marks. Hawkins and Sanders are good at certain things, but aren't dominant safeties like we had during our Super Bowl runs. I wouldn't mind seeing us make a run at Ken Hamilin or Deon Grant or even Michael Lewis.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

He was getting sealed every single play by a TE, granted a mammoth one bust still. He didn't record a tackle, assist or sack in that game and they were running that way a lot. Maybe my perception of him is distorted from that game but I really don't remember him being a force against the run at all this year. I think he's a good situational guy but not an every down guy especially against a power team like the Chargers.

We have them at home this year do you have any faith in him on that side even with a healthy Seymour in that situation? I cannot say I do.

We expect Graham to be able to take on and beat a Joey Porter, slow down a Shawn Merriman, and block a Julius Peppers. Why is it a surprise when the blocking TE for the #1 seeded AFC team is capable of blocking a young LB who is starting as an injury replacement? I want Eric Alexander to fill holes and passing lanes like the old Bruschi, he's not going to do it in his first start or he would have been starting already. Rosey stunk as a run stuffer when I was watching him on tape to start the 2005 season, but he improved as he got more playing time and coaching off the game tapes. TBC is no different, he's got a good pass rush and he does well in underneath zone coverage.

The question to ask about San Diego, how many times did LdT get outside TBC? Is TBC's job to set the edge or make the tackle? Both? Then which one has priority?

The entire premise of the run defense for the Patriots is redirection - the runner is redirected inside to the ILBs and Ss. Why do you think Bruschi led the team in tackles and Seau made the top five even after missing however many games?

Checking the #'s: You were right, TBC's SD stats show 1 FR; however, Bruschi had 11 TT, Warren and Hawkins 7, Sanders and Vrabel had 6, Wilfork had 3, Colvin and Seymour 1, and Green and Wright join TBC with 0. So the four middle of the field guys had the tackles, they and that run stuffing freak Ty Warren. The runs were apparently getting shuffled back inside based on the tackle numbers. It may not have been pretty, frankly that was one ugly win, but the goal was achieved, a win, and from my read on tape and these tackle numbers, TBC did well enough to contain LdT and turn him inside to the pursuit.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

I agree with Box O' Rocks. TBC would be a decent re-signing for Hochstein/Green money. Now if the Jets go banannas, then let him walk and sign another OLB.

Concerning the LBs, no doubt about it, we are getting old, and some attention at the position is needed.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The Patriots' week by week NFL Rush Defense ranking:
- Week 1: 16
- Week 2: 08
- Week 3: 16
- Week 4: 13
- Week 5: 08
- Week 6: 08
- Week 7: 06
- Week 8: 03
- Week 9: 03
- Week 10: 03
- Week 11: 02
- Week 12: 03
- Week 13: 03
- Week 14: 03
- Week 15: 04
- Week 16: 05
- Week 17: 05

Yep, the Pats' rush defense went to heck in a hand basket with TBC in the line-up. (Must have been his play in game 1.)
He's just a JAG. (Which explains why the Jets who want to get better to compete with the Pats are rumored to be targeting him.)

So New England ended the season the #5 rush defense in the NFL up from #2 in week 11, they played without Harrison, Seau, and Wilfork for most of that period - a gaping hole right up the middle. But somehow the consensus has TBC as the weakest link in the rush defense. Go figure.

For the record:
- TBC started in 5 games and playing in 16 had 40 Total Tackles (10 on Special Teams), 5.5 sacks, 10 QBH, 1 PD, and 1 FF.
For grins and giggles, lets compare TBC to Rosey:
- 15 starts with 16 games played, 59 Total Tackles, 8.5 sacks, 26 QBH, 3 PD, 1 FF, and 1 FR.

Just to be thorough, let's compare post-season data:
- TBC started 2 games and played in 3 with 6 Total Tackles, 2 sacks, 5 QBH, 1 PD, and 1 FR.
- Rosey started 3 games with 10 Total Tackles, 1 sack, 4 QBH, 1 INT, 1 PD, and 1FF.

I'm sure this data will be ignored in favor of Len Pasqurelli's wisdom, but for the one or two of you who consider this information, I'd say the numbers speak quite well for TBC when compared to the one player on the team who consistently played the same position throughout the season.

- Source: Patriots' Final 2006 Season Media Release

I am amazed at the conventional wisdom regarding TBC. All the posters keep projecting what a Jarret Johnson might do in this defense or what a Thomas might do in this Defense . All the posters keep saying we need to get younger and faster at LB, but object when we develop one young budding star at LB.

Well TBC has outplayed Jarret and frankly he outplayed Vrabel too.

Vrabel started 19 games and ended up with 7.0 sacks. TBC started six games and ended up with 7.5 sacks. Because he was a newcomer and not a hallowed player that all counts for nothing. People say he only rushes the passer, while they drool over sackmeisters Merriman and or Freeney. Freeney isn't on the same planet against the run, and TBC plays the run better than DroidMan too.

He out sacked them both on a sack per play basis.

Of all the three big FAs this year TBC is the MOST LIKELY to stay.

I have seen more goo posted here than ever before. ""BB never pays CBs." "BB doesn't think he needs a shutdown CB" . "We won't ever pay 8 million a year for a CB".

It was only two years ago that Ty was on his second year making over 10 million per. What nonsense!

As for Graham, Belichick pays for performance. He paid heavily for Jarvis Greene and Kevin Faulk guys who produced but never rated to make these kind of dollars. Well they did and they are. If Graham goes, it will be his choice for personal reasons; it won't be over money concerns.

 

[everlong]

We expect Graham to be able to take on and beat a Joey Porter, slow down a Shawn Merriman, and block a Julius Peppers.

I expect Graham will help a tackle block these guys and I expect they will at least get a tackle when matched up one one one with Graham.

The question to ask about San Diego, how many times did LdT get outside TBC? Is TBC's job to set the edge or make the tackle? Both? Then which one has priority?

He wasn't setting the edge he was getting sealed. There's a difference. When an OLB in our system sets the edge his priority is to contain the outside but he is in position to come off the block once the RB is committed to the hole. McGinist (used to) and Vrabel do it quite often. Colvin isn't as good at it.

Checking the #'s: You were right, TBC's SD stats show 1 FR; however, Bruschi had 11 TT, Warren and Hawkins 7, Sanders and Vrabel had 6, Wilfork had 3, Colvin and Seymour 1, and Green and Wright join TBC with 0. So the four middle of the field guys had the tackles, they and that run stuffing freak Ty Warren. The runs were apparently getting shuffled back inside based on the tackle numbers. It may not have been pretty, frankly that was one ugly win, but the goal was achieved, a win, and from my read on tape and these tackle numbers, TBC did well enough to contain LdT and turn him inside to the pursuit.

LT got better than half his yards on that side so TBC and Seymour did not do there job. They were both man-handled.

 

[everlong]

I agree with Box O' Rocks. TBC would be a decent re-signing for Hochstein/Green money. Now if the Jets go banannas, then let him walk and sign another OLB.

Concerning the LBs, no doubt about it, we are getting old, and some attention at the position is needed.

I think he's a decent resigning too I just do not think he's good against the run. He still has time to develop some more.

I think the Pats will offer him 2-3/year and the Jets or some other team will offer him 4 and he'll walk.

 

[everlong]

TBC started six games and ended up with 7.5 sacks.

As for Graham, Belichick pays for performance. He paid heavily for Jarvis Greene and Kevin Faulk guys who produced but never rated to make these kind of dollars. Well they did and they are. If Graham goes, it will be his choice for personal reasons; it won't be over money concerns.

The 7.5 sacks are why I hope they resign him in a Green type of role. I think he fits the team well in part time duty.

I hope they pay Graham 4/16 to keep him. He's worth it.

I think they'll sign Assante if he wants a reasonable deal but I think he's going to go for the 5/50 with 14 up front deal and that won't happen.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The 7.5 sacks are why I hope they resign him in a Green type of role. I think he fits the team well in part time duty.

I hope they pay Graham 4/16 to keep him. He's worth it.

I think they'll sign Assante if he wants a reasonable deal but I think he's going to go for the 5/50 with 14 up front deal and that won't happen.

Why pay Graham that money is he is only good enough as a blocker to assist a tackle?

 

[everlong]

Why pay Graham that money is he is only good enough as a blocker to assist a tackle?

LOL, touche. Simple he could block TBC one on one.

 

[ATippett56]

Why pay Graham that money is he is only good enough as a blocker to assist a tackle?

Since Ashworth and Gorin are no longer on the New England Patriots roster ................................

 

[DaBruinz]

I agree with Box O' Rocks. TBC would be a decent re-signing for Hochstein/Green money. Now if the Jets go banannas, then let him walk and sign another OLB.

Concerning the LBs, no doubt about it, we are getting old, and some attention at the position is needed.

Sorry, but there is NO WAY in hell that TBC is worth even HALF of Jarvis Green. I respect you and BOR, but lets get serious. TBC is a 4 year veteran who, while he hasn't started, has seen time in games. TBC is a JAG and you don't pay a JAG the type of money that Jarvis Green got.

IMHO, TBC isn't worth bringing back.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Sorry, but there is NO WAY in hell that TBC is worth even HALF of Jarvis Green. I respect you and BOR, but lets get serious. TBC is a 4 year veteran who, while he hasn't started, has seen time in games. TBC is a JAG and you don't pay a JAG the type of money that Jarvis Green got.

IMHO, TBC isn't worth bringing back.

Was that JAG Bruschi starting regularly in 2000? I can't remember but I believe people have mentioned his replacing Brian Cox in 2001...