Pats Defense Now Ranked 9th in PPG

[PF_SU]

The improvement of the pass defense really manifests itself in the amount of big plays. In the first six games of the season the Patriots D was uncharacteristically prone to giving up the chunk plays. 28 pass plays of 20 yards or more, 15 that went for more than 30 yards and 6 for 40 or more yards. In the last six games, however, that number has gone down to 10 pass plays of 20 or more yards, 2 of 30 or more (both to Emmanuel Sanders in Denver) and none over 40 yards.

Interesting is also splitting the defensive performance the last six games by field position:

Passing
Opp1-19: 9/13 (69%), 89 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 sacks (-16 yards), 4.9 yards per play, 88.3 passer rating
Opp20-39: 57/84 (68%), 581 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 8 sacks (-70 yards), 5.6 yards per play, 77.5 passer rating
Opp40-NE41: 24/51 (47%), 234 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks (-12 yards), 4.2 yards per play, 52.2 passer rating
NE40-NE21: 20/33 (61%), 241 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks (-19 yards), 6.3 yards per play, 80.5 passer rating
NE20-NE1: 14/32 (44%), 88 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 0 sacks, 2.8 yards per Play, 64.6 passer rating

Rushing
Opp1-19: 14 attempts, 148 yards, 7.6 yards per play, 1 TD
Opp20-39: 50 attempts, 295 yards, 5.9 yards per play
Opp40-NE41: 43 attempts, 176 yards, 4.1 yards per play
NE40-NE21: 20 attempts, 108 yards, 5.4 yards per play
NE20-NE1: 10 attempts, 27 yards, 2.7 yards per play

General
Opp1-19: 7.6 yards per play, 2/5 Third-downs (40%)
Opp20-39: 5.7 yards per play, 13/28 Third-downs (46%)
Opp40-NE41: 4.1 yards per play, 4/21 Third-downs (19%)
NE40-NE21: 6.0 yards per play, 5/9 Third-downs (56%)
NE20-NE1: 2.7 yards per play, 3/10 Third-downs (30%)

So your standard opposing drive these past six games start within the opponents' 20-39 yard line, gain good initial penetration, but once they reach midfield they get shut down. Strangely, if a drive manages to get past midfield they have great success in the first fifth of the NE side of the field. But once they reach the redzone the D stiffens insanely, both in the passing and run game.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

To meet last year's 15.6ppg allowed Pats need to allow 27 points over the next 4 games or allow less than a TD a game.

Tall order.

I'd settle for averaging 15.6ppg allowed the final four games. If we manage that, we'll probably have gone 4-0 down the stretch.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

Kyrie?

 

[BobDigital]

End of year rankings are great.

IMO the Pats have the 4th-5th best D right now.

Jags, Vikings and Baltimore IMO are all probably better.

Steelers maybe were but without Shazier I can't say that anymore. Plus they are a bit of a one trick pony on defense... Against a good QB who can sniff it out "blitzberg" can be had.

Seattle was but they lose too many top players. The backup DBs are doing okay but it has lost too much to be the top D it was. Still good.

Philly has a good D but has had the 4th easiest defensive schedule all year. Also they caught a number of teams at very good times. I would put ours above theirs right now.

LA teams (both Chargers and Rams) have good Ds but they are a bit too dependent on a small number of key players which makes me nervous.

SD's run D isn't good and has been an issue nearly all year. They also have issues dealing with RBs catching and can get a bit over aggressive.

The Rams run D has a similar issue and on the whole the unit has been too inconsistent.

Carolina is good but I'd take ours. If I were to pick another D over ours it be their unit though for a number of reasons.

New Orleans has a good D but it has been inconsistent too and not just due to injuries.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, 15.6 is fine. However, I wouldn't be surprised if PITT has 28 of the 62 points.

I'd settle for averaging 15.6ppg allowed the final four games. If we manage that, we'll probably have gone 4-0 down the stretch.

 

[FourierSeries]

Yes, 15.6 is fine. However, I wouldn't be surprised if PITT has 28 of the 62 points.

With that offense? They'll be lucky to get to 17.

 

[Uptown]

Greg Auman on Twitter

The Bucs defense allows 15.1 points more per game on the road vs. at home. Only other teams close: Rams (+10.6) and Colts (+10.4). Patriots are the other extreme, allowing 11.2 points fewer on the road.

 

[tasmlab]

Is the ranking based on the entire season's stats? I.e., do they still have to average in the crappy first four games? Their current game by game record probably puts them higher.

 

[jimnance]

Is the ranking based on the entire season's stats? I.e., do they still have to average in the crappy first four games? Their current game by game record probably puts them higher.

Season-long stats are mostly useless. What matters is how you're playing now. So stats over the past 4 or 5 games, adjusting for strength of opponent, is a much truer yardstick.
The Patriots are the scariest team for anybody to play in the NFL now.
They have flaws but they'll be favored in every game they play.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

The improvement of the pass defense really manifests itself in the amount of big plays. In the first six games of the season the Patriots D was uncharacteristically prone to giving up the chunk plays. 28 pass plays of 20 yards or more, 15 that went for more than 30 yards and 6 for 40 or more yards. In the last six games, however, that number has gone down to 10 pass plays of 20 or more yards, 2 of 30 or more (both to Emmanuel Sanders in Denver) and none over 40 yards.

Interesting is also splitting the defensive performance the last six games by field position:

Passing
Opp1-19: 9/13 (69%), 89 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 sacks (-16 yards), 4.9 yards per play, 88.3 passer rating
Opp20-39: 57/84 (68%), 581 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 8 sacks (-70 yards), 5.6 yards per play, 77.5 passer rating
Opp40-NE41: 24/51 (47%), 234 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks (-12 yards), 4.2 yards per play, 52.2 passer rating
NE40-NE21: 20/33 (61%), 241 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks (-19 yards), 6.3 yards per play, 80.5 passer rating
NE20-NE1: 14/32 (44%), 88 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 0 sacks, 2.8 yards per Play, 64.6 passer rating

Rushing
Opp1-19: 14 attempts, 148 yards, 7.6 yards per play, 1 TD
Opp20-39: 50 attempts, 295 yards, 5.9 yards per play
Opp40-NE41: 43 attempts, 176 yards, 4.1 yards per play
NE40-NE21: 20 attempts, 108 yards, 5.4 yards per play
NE20-NE1: 10 attempts, 27 yards, 2.7 yards per play

General
Opp1-19: 7.6 yards per play, 2/5 Third-downs (40%)
Opp20-39: 5.7 yards per play, 13/28 Third-downs (46%)
Opp40-NE41: 4.1 yards per play, 4/21 Third-downs (19%)
NE40-NE21: 6.0 yards per play, 5/9 Third-downs (56%)
NE20-NE1: 2.7 yards per play, 3/10 Third-downs (30%)

So your standard opposing drive these past six games start within the opponents' 20-39 yard line, gain good initial penetration, but once they reach midfield they get shut down. Strangely, if a drive manages to get past midfield they have great success in the first fifth of the NE side of the field. But once they reach the redzone the D stiffens insanely, both in the passing and run game.

Those stats tell a great story. You see a defense that comes-up with stops just outside field goal range and in front of the end zone. That cannot be an accident. I wonder how much of that is by design in terms of the coverages and line schemes and how much of it is coaching players on when to give ground and when to buckle down and guard the sticks? Near the goal line, it's obviously a combination of both, as the front 7 and inside LBs play the run and the coverage players manage the smaller field. Near midfield, however, I'd be interested in seeing how the play-calling changes. My impression in years past is that the bend, but don't break approach resulted in the Pats giving-up long drives and plenty of field goals, but those shut-down stats near midfield (low completion percentages, QB rating, and especially 3rd down conversion) stand-out.

The one stat that is not great, but still better near midfield than anywhere else except the red zone, is ypc for the rushing defense. This is where a strong running team could match-up well with the Pats and do some damage, extending drives, reducing points for the Pats and getting FGs instead of punting. Teams that fit that mold who have a defense to slow down the offense include Philly and Jacksonville, so it's worth keeping an eye on them as potentially dangerous teams in the playoffs (although Jacksonville wouldn't see a big nickel as much, so they aren't as dangerous). Other teams with strong running games and include Carolina and KC, and those are the two losses that the Pats have taken. I think the D is too good for those losses to happen again, were they to meet the Pats again, but the best chance to attack the Pats appears to be to run out of a spread formation that puts thinner bodies on the field for the D. They may hold-up for a drive or three like that, but if the Pats' offense is slowed down, guys like Pat Chung, who can be beast defending the run for a short while, is going to get worn down by fighting off 300-pound linemen and wrapping-up a running back repeatedly.

 

[Uptown]

Gil Brandt on Twitter

 

[Kontradiction]

Gil Brandt on Twitter

These stats are getting a bit much. How is a "burn percentage" calculated and how do they determine who was at fault? Further, I wonder how much of that by Chung is from early on in the season. Starting with the Tampa game, he began to turn things around.