Some comments on the comments:
1. First of all, this a good thread. Sane, realistic, and informative. I learned a lot and that's the best thing you can say about a thread.
2. Going into the wildcard games I feared the Colts more, but as I watched the Bengals melt down, I started to root hard for them for the following reasons. Most importantly, they had players dropping like they were Patriots, so the defense the Pats were likely to face, would NOT be the one that fans have so correctly pointed out, gives the Pats trouble. Also Cinci would have been on a short week, and then there is the whole Dalton thing which seemed to play out just as many suspected.
3. But the Colts are the team, and we should all remember the one fact that we all agree on. The Pats CAN beat any team that they possibly might play in these playoffs. BUT....there is no team that doesn't have the capability to beat the Pats if they play a sub par game.
4. The Colts D sucks on paper and could get worse with some losses from the wildcard game.
However I would remind people that in the Colts superbowl year when they had a defense that ranked in the THIRTIES during the regular season, they won the Lombardi on the backs of their DEFENSE. In fact, the ONLY game where Manning excelled was the AFCCG against the Pats. The rest of the time they relied on their D to win. IIRC Manning didn't even have 200 yds in the superbowl. I say this only as a warning. Bad D's can turn in around in a short playoff run.
BTW- another decent example is the 2011 Pats D, who were historically bad during the regular season, and wound up being the 4th best D during the playoffs So who knows.
5. There were some really good thoughts about how to defend the Colts 2 main passing threats. And after some thought I'd like to offer my ideas. First a disclaimer. I am going to give just one coverage idea. A key element to successfully defending the pass in this day and age is having several coverage options. Confusing the QB is key to stopping him. So keep this in mind.
a. Talib is clearly our best CB and although the short quick guy gives him problems, you should always play your best on their best. Besides Talib is very physical and has a huge advantage in press coverage against the relatively frail Hilton. That being said, in virtually every coverage short of a maximum blitz, you can double one receiver, so in this game I worry less about Hilton's speed when the Pats will likely have someone over the top against him on every play. I'd play Talib on the inside shoulder, cutting off the quick slant and crossing routes by position and allow him only outside releases. Talib would now have great underneath position forcing Luck to throw the ball over a much taller DB, and dropping it in to him before the S gets there. That's not easy, and if underthrown just a bit, results in pick. So by this coverage you are making it difficult for Hilton to hurt you over the middle, and it would take the perfect pass to hurt you deep outside. A pass made even more difficult by the fact you are playing outside in January in NE, rather than in a dome.
b. In most coverages, with even 4 man rushes, you can usually afford to double 2 players. Well what do you know the Colts have 2 key receivers.
I think we have the perfect Fleenerator in Jamie Collins. He has the speed to run with him, the size to match up, and almost the same athletic skills. I'd have Collins matched up on him even when he goes outside. If he lines up inside, you have a S to take the top off any deep seem route When he lines up outside, you have a CB in a zone behind Fleener to take the top off any deep routes he might run. Again you align Collins on his inside shoulder and force outside releases. I want to force Luck to throw deep outside between two defenders in order to beat us. I do NOT want to have him making easy short throws on inside the numbers
c. I give the above as just one coverage. I wouldn't have a problem changing it and have a healthy Dennard on Hilton and Talib on the much larger Brazile if the Colts start to target him on small CB's
d. Also not mentioned are the myriad of zone and combo coverages that can be put into the game plan too numerous to mention.
6. One thing I got out of this thread was that the Colts don't have a lot of offensive weapons to fear beyond Luck and Hilton. Well think about what they are saying in Indy. Who do the Pats have that scares anyone beyond Brady. The Pats simply don't have a TE that gets more than 3 targets a game. Our top receiver is a midget barely averaging 10 ypc, and the only WR who's a deep threat and has size is very doubtful. So basically all they have is Deion Branch, Wes Welker and Wes Welker jr on a bad groin. Certainly not a scary line up, especially when you have a zero TE threat
7. The Pats are going to line up in a power running formation a lot. They are going to see 8 man fronts....a lot. They are going to have to throw the ball to the TE's a FB.....a lot.....more. I mean they don't have to be Gronk-like deep throws down the seam, but I hope Josh crafts a series of short outs, dump offs, and middle releases, that will make a consistent 5-10 yds and force the Colts to respect the TE's as a threat.
8. I think the Pats will get some sort of man coverage, because that's the best coverage to stop quick screens, slow screens and the short passing game the pats want to run. Then when you force the Pats into bunch formations to counter the man coverage, and when you see it you audible to some sort of preplanned zone which will frustrate the hell Brady.
I think to counter that likely eventuality, Josh will have a number of routes that come off that look and take advantage of the likelihood some DB or LB is jumping the screen or crossing looks. Something like the ones I mention in Sunday's idle thought, only a lot more.
9. Mathis is going to be a tough threat for Solder and Cannon, he's truly had a great season and is one of the better pass rushers around. However in Dante we trust. The Pats have usually done very well protecting Brady from great outside rushers. Its the inside rush I fear. That's why I think we'll see TE's being key. Having a TE moves Mathis out about 4 more feet (or another half second). All the TE has to do is take away Mathis' first step, and THEN I want him out in some route. I believe that kind of chip and run would neutralize Mathis for the most part. Anything under 3 sacks will be a win for the OL.
10. If Luck were a stationary QB, I'd love our chances of burying him under a raft of pressure, but he isn't and lane discipline is going to be mandatory and unfortunately that limits the effectiveness of our pass rushes. No inside moves because you have to keep him inside the pocket. Hard to be effective when you cut your options in half.
That being said there are things you can do, and most of them are going to have come from the middle. I think when Luck is in the shot gun it is mandatory that when present a threat to the gaps on either side of C on EVERY snap. Now you don't come every time, but you HAVE to threaten it. Then about 4 times a game you come with that outside DB blitz that would allow the DE's to make that inside move. The key here is disguising it well, perhaps even delaying it.
11. And in the end, after even the longest posts and explanations, it generally comes down to which team takes care of the ball the best. Its going to be cold, but not unbearably, and it could be wet, based on long range forecasts, so the team that gets the strip sacks, picks, and fumbles is likely going to win the game.
