Why? Even in the highly unlikely event that one or more of the high-cap-number guys aren't cut, and no one's contract is extended, figure seven of the 14 will be rookies, with a total first year cap hit of about $4 mil. Figure four FA at the vet minimum for a total of $2 mil (cap hit for vet min is less than salary). That leaves $6 mil for 3 guys.
What's wrong with that?
(Practice squad players get $5,000 a week, a total of about $600,000 for the entire year. Hardly worht worrying about)
Okay first I'll disagree then agree in a way... but possibly just out of ignorance.
1) you're assuming you'll get anything other than a JAG at veteran minimum, for 4 guys. This is assuming a continuation of the "take the cut to play for the Pats" phenomenon which spiked this year... it is not something you can count on. Last year it became the "everyone knows NE is cheap" model. It might again at any time. Practice squad, as you say, absorbs 600K - which out of a total of $12M,
is worth worrying about. What about in-season replacements? It doesn't look like a lot of room to work with on that front... you have to think keeping a million or two for a rainy day is a good idea.
2) I like your reliance on lotsa rooks... this could be the pressure that makes it a "use the picks" year, with a relatively subdued FA on the Pats part. We've got the draft ammo... why not. We'll also have 4 guys (Moss, Welker, Washington, Stallworth) all attempting to prove their status, with only Welker structured in such a way that we lose a bunch up-front to cut him. So, if something we throw at the wall
this year doesn't stick, we may end up with yet more draft ammo, and a slight reduction in the cap.
3) Dillon's dead money due to retirement - I do not know the status of this. (Miguel -- assist?) There is a big dead money hit next year, and I first assumed that's tied to money already paid (bonuses) which the team is on the hook for. But I also see we're not liable under the cap for his salary this year, once CD is officially retired. So the hit for 08 might include dead money that isn't really dead once CD is not paid his salary on 6/2. That could be a huge difference in money to spread around.
4) Haven't gone back to pinpoint what hits when... but you know someone becomes an RFA or UFA in 08. Somebody you want to keep. Yes, you can absorb much of that hit in later years... or not. But this too figures into that cap math.
In other words, once all is said and done, we might just be going to the credit cards, if the same mentality continues to pertain. All I can say is from the looks of things, the "middle" is migrating north for NE, with the Top (Brady) already having shot skyward, and one must assume, staying there for a while... I
do like the large middle class NE continues to have (and in fact, it is growing.) But a scatterplot of our structure looks a lot more like other teams' than it looks like, say, our 2003 or 2004 structures.
This boils down the whole "fiscal discipline" difference to "looking for value," which I still maintain NE has done. But you can't get something for nothing, even if you CAN get it for cheaper (which puts you ahead of the game right there.)
I think we are seeing a "new model" going into effect which reflects the 2006-2010 era capwise. I think it is different from the pre-2006 model... I also think what I think is likely to be disproven by next season's moves.
It'll be great to look back at all this in 2020 and see what the Patriots of our age
did, rather than try to keep up with what they are
doing.
"In Bill We Trust."
QED,
PFnV
