Our Top Ten Defense - Points Allowed

[mgteich]

We played most of the season without Wilfork, Kelly and Mayo. The corners were often injured. Spikes was often injured. Gregory was injured.

And yet, we were NUMBER TEN in points allowed.

We are very young and improving.

IMHO, this is a top five defense if we bring back Talib and most of the kids continue to develop.

We will need at least one veteran DT. I'm fine with Kelly and/or Wilfork. We have the cap money assigned to Wilfork, Kelly, Sopoaga, Gregory and Wilson to find help at DE, DT and SS. That $14M or so should be plenty.

We are fine even if we simply bring back Kelly or Wilfork, and keep Gregory for yet another year (and replace Wilson with a free agent or draftee).

 

[DocHoliday]

A top 10 defense operates top ten in yardage. I don't like using points allowed because that ultimately depends on too many different factors and doesn't accurately measure the ability of a defense to get off the field.

To me, a top 10 yardage defense can stop an offense any given play much better than a top 10 points defense. We've hung our hat on having an okay points defense for way too long, only to see it fail to come off the field in third down over and over again.

 

[mgteich]

I strongly disagree, and that's fine.

A team with a top offense, especially one that scores quickly will have a defense that gives up lots, and lots of yards. Sometimes these teams play in the Super Bowl. Playing with a lead means having the opponents pass more often. The measure of such a defense is how many points it allows.

A top 10 defense operates top ten in yardage. I don't like using points allowed because that ultimately depends on too many different factors and doesn't accurately measure the ability of a defense to get off the field.

To me, a top 10 yardage defense can stop an offense any given play much better than a top 10 points defense. We've hung our hat on having an okay points defense for way too long, only to see it fail to come off the field in third down over and over again.

 

[everlong]

It's funny because Bill was on the leading edge of the 21st century offense. However he's still defending in the 20th century. They are a top 10 bend but don't break defense. The problem is in the 21st century you need to be able to at times be a pressure defense and get the other team off the field. 2007 and 2011 against the Giants, 2010 vs the Jets and this year vs the Broncos the defensive numbers don't look awful until you realize how they limited the number of chances the offense had. Bill needs to get rid of two gapping and apply more pressure. Death by a thousand paper cuts isn't working. It's better to take you chances and get some turnovers and accept that you'll get burnt from time to time vs giving up six 10+ play drives.

 

[patsfaninpa]

A top 10 defense operates top ten in yardage. I don't like using points allowed because that ultimately depends on too many different factors and doesn't accurately measure the ability of a defense to get off the field.

To me, a top 10 yardage defense can stop an offense any given play much better than a top 10 points defense. We've hung our hat on having an okay points defense for way too long, only to see it fail to come off the field in third down over and over again.

If every team had the same goal defensively, it is probably a better indicator of performance. But, Belichick has usually given up yards between the 20's and tries to stop you in the redzone. I don't ignore one stat or the other. Would be foolish to do so. But, I do put more emphasis on points allowed.

 

[varjao]

Steve Gregory is due to 2.2Mi, I'm ok with him leaving, we need to clean cap space and he's backup level, for backup I would give a shot to Tavon Wilson heck he's already using a roster spot so use him for something, we can't undo the draft, let's hope Adrian Wilson can contribute in some way too.

 

[DocHoliday]

Let me backtrack a little.

I think an even better measurement of a defense is first downs allowed.

While this is also susceptible to the 'more opportunities' situation passing offenses often give their opponents, I think it's better than yardage and points allowed.

 

[SebertJr]

I agree with the points thing, damn they held the Broncos to 26 in 500 yds of offense...but to not put a hand on Manning , despicable :frusty:

 

[Sicilian]

My big six categories (which are as flawed as any) are:

Points: 21.1 (10th)
Yards/Pass Attempt: 7.0 (13th)
Yards/Carry: 4.5 (24th)
Red Zone TD%: 51.72 (13th)
3rd Down%: 42.2 (26th)
Turnovers: 29 (T-10th)

This the object of the game (points), ability to get off the field (3rd down), ability to cover specific play types when needed (YPA and YPC), and ability to tighten up when the offense turns the ball over (Red Zone), and ability to turn the game with a turnover of your own (turnovers).

I feel like a combination of these stats gives you a good indicator of where a defense is. If I had more time, I'd tally up the average ranking for all 32 teams and see where the Pats rank. My guess is middle of the pack.

 

[ATippett56]

Our Top Ten Defense - Points Allowed has allowed 28 points and 26 points in consecutive AFC Championship Games and has not forced one turnover in either game.

 

[Sciz]

A top 10 defense operates top ten in yardage. I don't like using points allowed because that ultimately depends on too many different factors and doesn't accurately measure the ability of a defense to get off the field.

To me, a top 10 yardage defense can stop an offense any given play much better than a top 10 points defense. We've hung our hat on having an okay points defense for way too long, only to see it fail to come off the field in third down over and over again.

You fundamentally disagree with Belichick in this regard and that's fine, but it doesn't make him (or this thread) wrong. He has said multiple times that he cares about minimizing points. Yes, there are other stats that rank just below points in importance, but that's exactly where Belichick puts them, clearly below. There are differing philosophies on this, such as Wade Phillips and Rex Ryan who both historically score much better in yards than points, but I think it's completely incorrect to call one better than the other. Belichick's goal is to minimize points, and he did a damn good job of that considering who he was putting on the field.

I also don't understand why you promote yardage stats, but then talk about what is clearly much more related to third down defense, which is the stat that measures a defense's ability to get off the field. The Patriots were equally as bad at that (26th in the NFL), but at least this season, there doesn't seem to be any real correlation between good third down defenses being good defenses or good teams.

 

[mgteich]

Clearly, Wilfork, Kelly, Talib, and Mayo would have made a difference.

How many points should we have expected the defense to hold DEN to in order to give the offense a good chance at the game. Say the answer is 19. I suggest that the difference between the actual score and 19 was the absence of Talib.

If the defense held DEN to 19, would we have won? Personally, I don't think so. Of course, we'll never know. Our offense was not playing well enough to win, not close.

Our Top Ten Defense - Points Allowed has allowed 28 points and 26 points in consecutive AFC Championship Games and has not forced one turnover in either game.