ATippett56
Pro Bowl Player
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Dome stadium .... Larry Fitzgerald .... NFC West
So do you think that the Colts refuse to pay the bonus--thus making Manning a free agent, or do you feel as though the Colts will retain Manning and trade the pick then?
Here's the problem, though: there are only two ways the Colts can get out of that giant roster bonus in his contract:
(1) Release him.
(2) Trade him before it's due.
Obviously, (1) precludes getting anything in a trade for him. But (2) will drastically limit his value as well, because then the team picking him up would be on the hook for that bonus.
Of course, the Colts could pick up the bonus and then trade him, but that would also be quite expensive.
Mediots have been "speculating" or "opining" that all along. The problem is it makes no sense...for Manning.
And it has nothing to do with having them both on the same team, which is a different argument. All that would be is costly (Irsay will be forking over $51M in bonus and salary to his starting QB and his backup...) and limiting as far as impact improvement via the draft...and that team needs improvement and Manning knows that. Not to mention awkward and not in Luck's best interest. He is going to want to start right away because the clock is already ticking on all his future contracts where he can make up the lost money from the new limits on rookie deals.
Here's the problem, though: there are only two ways the Colts can get out of that giant roster bonus in his contract:
(1) Release him.
(2) Trade him before it's due.
Obviously, (1) precludes getting anything in a trade for him. But (2) will drastically limit his value as well, because then the team picking him up would be on the hook for that bonus.
Of course, the Colts could pick up the bonus and then trade him, but that would also be quite expensive.
Disagree. I'd suggested previously that Manning work a delayed bonus deal. Here's how Manning could benefit. Assuming the Colts want to draft Luck. Manning could decide that he wants to go somewhere else, but of his own choice. The deal would be to push back the bonus $ to into FA timeframe. Manning would get to approve the team he's traded to. Maybe even have an agreement that its not for a 1st round pick. Of course it would have to be for $ that was commensurate with his existing deal with the default being that the Colts pay him and keep him. It's a win for both if structured thoughtfully.
SF, Seattle, Dallas, Miami might be acceptable destinations where the HC, the chance to win and playing conditions would meet Peyton's requirements. NFW would the dysfunctional, offensive talentless Jets meet that need.
So do you think that the Colts refuse to pay the bonus--thus making Manning a free agent, or do you feel as though the Colts will retain Manning and trade the pick then?
Even Irsay and Manning don't know what the answer to that question is yet. They have about two more months to figure that out. I think Irsay wants to keep Manning and draft Luck. Trouble is that isn't going to make either player happy. And to Irsay that will matter. He lived through his old man's Elway debaucle and the trading of Unitas. He is not his father's son. Perception matters to him. There is likely a lot of chatter going on behind the scenes on that already. There is some scuttlebut that one of the reasons Polian got canned beyond the timing being right and his ahole finally personality wearing Irsay out as it did everywhere else he ever worked and Irsay's lack of faith in Chris to grow into a competent GM or one less ascerbic and condescending than his father who ever failed to have an adequate backup plan to a Manningless season, was that Polian was said to be leaning towards doing something outside the box like trade the pick and target RGIII. It's also more likely Polian roll Jim's dice again and retain Manning short term and then flip him for picks anticipating that would be doable once the cap jumps in 2014. That's two strategies that Irsay finds totally unappealing and too like what his father would have done - just piss everyone off.
I think Irsay is hoping on some level that Manning, whom he truly loves, can't come back. It just makes everyone's life easier... Otherwise he has to choose between cutting him based on the rational that it's the only sensible thing to do absent any guarantee he will ever be able to play again at a high level and then hoping to god he can't...elsewhere. Or trying to convince two guys that doing what is clearly not in their own best interest somehow is. He won't trade the Luck pick for anything. To him it's Elway redux. And he won't trade Manning down the road because that is Unitas redux. And that's what his father would have done.
There is nothing in that for him. Other than his potential new team losing a draft pick for acquiring him and maybe being his second or third choice because his first couldn't or wouldn't trump the trade compensation. Why would he show that kind of deference to the team walking away from him for the potential shiny new first great QB prospect since Manning...after he just signed a 5 year extension designed to take him to retirement as a Colt, which was his goal. And he gave them a break on that deal of roughly a couple of million a year over what Irsay would have paid him so they could retain or add some talent, and he gave them an out so if he couldn't play they would not be on the hook for a truly crippling dead cap (it's only $10M if they cut him before the option is due). Had he signed the deal most expected absent the injury they'd have likely been on the hook for in excess of $30M...based on a $40M+ signing bonus as opposed to a $20M signing bonus and a $28M option bonus. His last signing bonus was $34.5M...
Here's the problem, though: there are only two ways the Colts can get out of that giant roster bonus in his contract:
(1) Release him.
(2) Trade him before it's due.
Obviously, (1) precludes getting anything in a trade for him. But (2) will drastically limit his value as well, because then the team picking him up would be on the hook for that bonus.
Of course, the Colts could pick up the bonus and then trade him, but that would also be quite expensive.
Disagree. I'd suggested previously that Manning work a delayed bonus deal. Here's how Manning could benefit. Assuming the Colts want to draft Luck. Manning could decide that he wants to go somewhere else, but of his own choice. The deal would be to push back the bonus $ to into FA timeframe. Manning would get to approve the team he's traded to. Maybe even have an agreement that its not for a 1st round pick. Of course it would have to be for $ that was commensurate with his existing deal with the default being that the Colts pay him and keep him. It's a win for both if structured thoughtfully.
SF, Seattle, Dallas, Miami might be acceptable destinations where the HC, the chance to win and playing conditions would meet Peyton's requirements. NFW would the dysfunctional, offensive talentless Jets meet that need.
Dont worry about it, not only will they groom Luck for a couple years like the Packers did with Rodgers, even if the Colts were to trade Manning, he wouldn't go to New York - it's an outdoor stadium in the northeast. The weather is too unpredictable.
What's in it for him is legacy. Perhaps he wins a Lombardi with another team? What a case for GOAT. Also, I bet he realizes that the Colts are done as a team. Why tarnish his record with losses in his last seasons? Again this is all ASSUMING the Colts want Luck. Let Luck rack up the Ls while Peyton gets the Ws. Why not try to win with a team with a strong D say like Miami?
I keep wondering if the Colts would actually prefer to have Manning back and able to play at a decent level, trade the #1 and start rebuilding the team. Buy some time while also picking a non-Luck heir at QB, in addition to the bounty from trading the #1.
I understand the idea that Luck is once-in-a-generation, and this year proves the value of a top level QB. But IMO this year and recent years also show that more QBs these days are able to come out and have an impact in short time. And, hey — Brady, Rodgers and Brees weren't exactly Top 10 picks. You have to think there are other QBs not named Luck coming out within the next couple of years who can lead that franchise down the road, with a rebuilt supporting cast.
I think Manning's trade value for the Colts will actually improve if he plays with the Colts next year. He is still an unknown in regards to health. I can't see any team taking a chance with that salary and trading away draft picks not knowing how well he will hold up. Of course that means Irsay will have to pay him this year.....
I think Manning's trade value for the Colts will actually improve if he plays with the Colts next year. He is still an unknown in regards to health. I can't see any team taking a chance with that salary and trading away draft picks not knowing how well he will hold up. Of course that means Irsay will have to pay him this year.....