OT: The Manning Era Over?

[ATippett56]

Arizona may be a nice place for Peyton Manning to retire.

Dome stadium .... Larry Fitzgerald .... NFC West

 

[supafly]

Arizona may be a nice place for Peyton Manning to retire.

Dome stadium .... Larry Fitzgerald .... NFC West

I agree..if he ends up leaving, which I'm not (yet) convinced of, at least at this point.

If he did, I think a place like ARZ would be a perfect fit.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

So do you think that the Colts refuse to pay the bonus--thus making Manning a free agent, or do you feel as though the Colts will retain Manning and trade the pick then?

Here's the problem, though: there are only two ways the Colts can get out of that giant roster bonus in his contract:

(1) Release him.
(2) Trade him before it's due.

Obviously, (1) precludes getting anything in a trade for him. But (2) will drastically limit his value as well, because then the team picking him up would be on the hook for that bonus.

Of course, the Colts could pick up the bonus and then trade him, but that would also be quite expensive.

 

[supafly]

Here's the problem, though: there are only two ways the Colts can get out of that giant roster bonus in his contract:

(1) Release him.
(2) Trade him before it's due.

Obviously, (1) precludes getting anything in a trade for him. But (2) will drastically limit his value as well, because then the team picking him up would be on the hook for that bonus.

Of course, the Colts could pick up the bonus and then trade him, but that would also be quite expensive.

The whole situation still leads me to believe that he stays...one way or another. It appears to me that he wants to stay, and it also appears that they continue to want him to stay. I understand that a lot of the "pushing the bonus back" is speculation, but there certainly have been times where Peter King has gotten inside info and broken some stories too.

I honestly believe that Manning is the QB of the Colts next yr.

Just an opinion.

Thank you for more of a clarification, much appreciated.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Mediots have been "speculating" or "opining" that all along. The problem is it makes no sense...for Manning.

And it has nothing to do with having them both on the same team, which is a different argument. All that would be is costly (Irsay will be forking over $51M in bonus and salary to his starting QB and his backup...) and limiting as far as impact improvement via the draft...and that team needs improvement and Manning knows that. Not to mention awkward and not in Luck's best interest. He is going to want to start right away because the clock is already ticking on all his future contracts where he can make up the lost money from the new limits on rookie deals.

Disagree. I'd suggested previously that Manning work a delayed bonus deal. Here's how Manning could benefit. Assuming the Colts want to draft Luck. Manning could decide that he wants to go somewhere else, but of his own choice. The deal would be to push back the bonus $ to into FA timeframe. Manning would get to approve the team he's traded to. Maybe even have an agreement that its not for a 1st round pick. Of course it would have to be for $ that was commensurate with his existing deal with the default being that the Colts pay him and keep him. It's a win for both if structured thoughtfully.

SF, Seattle, Dallas, Miami might be acceptable destinations where the HC, the chance to win and playing conditions would meet Peyton's requirements. NFW would the dysfunctional, offensive talentless Jets meet that need.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Here's the problem, though: there are only two ways the Colts can get out of that giant roster bonus in his contract:

(1) Release him.
(2) Trade him before it's due.

Obviously, (1) precludes getting anything in a trade for him. But (2) will drastically limit his value as well, because then the team picking him up would be on the hook for that bonus.

Of course, the Colts could pick up the bonus and then trade him, but that would also be quite expensive.

Cannot trade him before the bonus is due. No trades allowed in the NFL past the trading deadline which was in October. Trades can't happen again before the start of the new league year on March 13. If they don't pick up the bonus he is a UFA on March 8th. You can't trade a player who isn't under contract to you any longer.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Disagree. I'd suggested previously that Manning work a delayed bonus deal. Here's how Manning could benefit. Assuming the Colts want to draft Luck. Manning could decide that he wants to go somewhere else, but of his own choice. The deal would be to push back the bonus $ to into FA timeframe. Manning would get to approve the team he's traded to. Maybe even have an agreement that its not for a 1st round pick. Of course it would have to be for $ that was commensurate with his existing deal with the default being that the Colts pay him and keep him. It's a win for both if structured thoughtfully.

SF, Seattle, Dallas, Miami might be acceptable destinations where the HC, the chance to win and playing conditions would meet Peyton's requirements. NFW would the dysfunctional, offensive talentless Jets meet that need.

There is nothing in that for him. Other than his potential new team losing a draft pick for acquiring him and maybe being his second or third choice because his first couldn't or wouldn't trump the trade compensation. Why would he show that kind of deference to the team walking away from him for the potential shiny new first great QB prospect since Manning...after he just signed a 5 year extension designed to take him to retirement as a Colt, which was his goal. And he gave them a break on that deal of roughly a couple of million a year over what Irsay would have paid him so they could retain or add some talent, and he gave them an out so if he couldn't play they would not be on the hook for a truly crippling dead cap (it's only $10M if they cut him before the option is due). Had he signed the deal most expected absent the injury they'd have likely been on the hook for in excess of $30M...based on a $40M+ signing bonus as opposed to a $20M signing bonus and a $28M option bonus. His last signing bonus was $34.5M...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

So do you think that the Colts refuse to pay the bonus--thus making Manning a free agent, or do you feel as though the Colts will retain Manning and trade the pick then?

Even Irsay and Manning don't know what the answer to that question is yet. They have about two more months to figure that out. I think Irsay wants to keep Manning and draft Luck. Trouble is that isn't going to make either player happy. And to Irsay that will matter. He lived through his old man's Elway debaucle and the trading of Unitas. He is not his father's son. Perception matters to him. There is likely a lot of chatter going on behind the scenes on that already. There is some scuttlebut that one of the reasons Polian got canned beyond the timing being right and his ahole finally personality wearing Irsay out as it did everywhere else he ever worked and Irsay's lack of faith in Chris to grow into a competent GM or one less ascerbic and condescending than his father who ever failed to have an adequate backup plan to a Manningless season, was that Polian was said to be leaning towards doing something outside the box like trade the pick and target RGIII. It's also more likely Polian roll Jim's dice again and retain Manning short term and then flip him for picks anticipating that would be doable once the cap jumps in 2014. That's two strategies that Irsay finds totally unappealing and too like what his father would have done - just piss everyone off.

I think Irsay is hoping on some level that Manning, whom he truly loves, can't come back. It just makes everyone's life easier... Otherwise he has to choose between cutting him based on the rational that it's the only sensible thing to do absent any guarantee he will ever be able to play again at a high level and then hoping to god he can't...elsewhere. Or trying to convince two guys that doing what is clearly not in their own best interest somehow is. He won't trade the Luck pick for anything. To him it's Elway redux. And he won't trade Manning down the road because that is Unitas redux. And that's what his father would have done.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Even Irsay and Manning don't know what the answer to that question is yet. They have about two more months to figure that out. I think Irsay wants to keep Manning and draft Luck. Trouble is that isn't going to make either player happy. And to Irsay that will matter. He lived through his old man's Elway debaucle and the trading of Unitas. He is not his father's son. Perception matters to him. There is likely a lot of chatter going on behind the scenes on that already. There is some scuttlebut that one of the reasons Polian got canned beyond the timing being right and his ahole finally personality wearing Irsay out as it did everywhere else he ever worked and Irsay's lack of faith in Chris to grow into a competent GM or one less ascerbic and condescending than his father who ever failed to have an adequate backup plan to a Manningless season, was that Polian was said to be leaning towards doing something outside the box like trade the pick and target RGIII. It's also more likely Polian roll Jim's dice again and retain Manning short term and then flip him for picks anticipating that would be doable once the cap jumps in 2014. That's two strategies that Irsay finds totally unappealing and too like what his father would have done - just piss everyone off.

I think Irsay is hoping on some level that Manning, whom he truly loves, can't come back. It just makes everyone's life easier... Otherwise he has to choose between cutting him based on the rational that it's the only sensible thing to do absent any guarantee he will ever be able to play again at a high level and then hoping to god he can't...elsewhere. Or trying to convince two guys that doing what is clearly not in their own best interest somehow is. He won't trade the Luck pick for anything. To him it's Elway redux. And he won't trade Manning down the road because that is Unitas redux. And that's what his father would have done.

Whatever Irsay decides, I'm sure he'll officially announce it through Twitter...

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

There is nothing in that for him. Other than his potential new team losing a draft pick for acquiring him and maybe being his second or third choice because his first couldn't or wouldn't trump the trade compensation. Why would he show that kind of deference to the team walking away from him for the potential shiny new first great QB prospect since Manning...after he just signed a 5 year extension designed to take him to retirement as a Colt, which was his goal. And he gave them a break on that deal of roughly a couple of million a year over what Irsay would have paid him so they could retain or add some talent, and he gave them an out so if he couldn't play they would not be on the hook for a truly crippling dead cap (it's only $10M if they cut him before the option is due). Had he signed the deal most expected absent the injury they'd have likely been on the hook for in excess of $30M...based on a $40M+ signing bonus as opposed to a $20M signing bonus and a $28M option bonus. His last signing bonus was $34.5M...

What's in it for him is legacy. Perhaps he wins a Lombardi with another team? What a case for GOAT. Also, I bet he realizes that the Colts are done as a team. Why tarnish his record with losses in his last seasons? Again this is all ASSUMING the Colts want Luck. Let Luck rack up the Ls while Peyton gets the Ws. Why not try to win with a team with a strong D say like Miami?

 

[Uncle Rico]

I keep wondering if the Colts would actually prefer to have Manning back and able to play at a decent level, trade the #1 and start rebuilding the team. Buy some time while also picking a non-Luck heir at QB, in addition to the bounty from trading the #1.

I understand the idea that Luck is once-in-a-generation, and this year proves the value of a top level QB. But IMO this year and recent years also show that more QBs these days are able to come out and have an impact in short time. And, hey — Brady, Rodgers and Brees weren't exactly Top 10 picks. You have to think there are other QBs not named Luck coming out within the next couple of years who can lead that franchise down the road, with a rebuilt supporting cast.

 

[Ring 6]

Here's the problem, though: there are only two ways the Colts can get out of that giant roster bonus in his contract:

(1) Release him.
(2) Trade him before it's due.

Obviously, (1) precludes getting anything in a trade for him. But (2) will drastically limit his value as well, because then the team picking him up would be on the hook for that bonus.

Of course, the Colts could pick up the bonus and then trade him, but that would also be quite expensive.

But the bonus is before the trade deadline, so they would have to pay it and eat it, it doesnt transfer with trade.

 

[Ring 6]

Disagree. I'd suggested previously that Manning work a delayed bonus deal. Here's how Manning could benefit. Assuming the Colts want to draft Luck. Manning could decide that he wants to go somewhere else, but of his own choice. The deal would be to push back the bonus $ to into FA timeframe. Manning would get to approve the team he's traded to. Maybe even have an agreement that its not for a 1st round pick. Of course it would have to be for $ that was commensurate with his existing deal with the default being that the Colts pay him and keep him. It's a win for both if structured thoughtfully.

SF, Seattle, Dallas, Miami might be acceptable destinations where the HC, the chance to win and playing conditions would meet Peyton's requirements. NFW would the dysfunctional, offensive talentless Jets meet that need.

Uner this scenario, Manning forfeits leverage. All of the IFs you add in are extremely uncertain.
Pushing back the bonus to find out there is no trade market for his contract and health would end up costing him dearly.

 

[fair catch fryar]

Dont worry about it, not only will they groom Luck for a couple years like the Packers did with Rodgers, even if the Colts were to trade Manning, he wouldn't go to New York - it's an outdoor stadium in the northeast. The weather is too unpredictable.

There's no way Irsay pays the #1 overall pick and Manning at the same time for a "couple" years. IMO Manning is as good as done in Indy, BUT it won't be to the team that plays 2nd fiddle to his lil' bro in the same town and is also in the same division as Brady and BB. Interesting possibilities could be San Fran and Seattle.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

What's in it for him is legacy. Perhaps he wins a Lombardi with another team? What a case for GOAT. Also, I bet he realizes that the Colts are done as a team. Why tarnish his record with losses in his last seasons? Again this is all ASSUMING the Colts want Luck. Let Luck rack up the Ls while Peyton gets the Ws. Why not try to win with a team with a strong D say like Miami?

I don't get what part of leverage to control his legacy to the greatest extent possible you don't get. Pushing back the bonus at the risk of remaining with a team you seem to think can't compete in order to allow them to trade him makes zero sense. As for Miami, who knows what their D or anything else will be going forward with a new coaching staff and that idiot Ross as an owner. Not to mention the simple no brainer I don't understand why folks here don't get - MANNING IS NEVER COMNG "BACK" TO THE AFCE AS LONG AS BRADY AND BELICHICK ARE STILL STANDING. Polian worked his magic to get them the hell out of that division a decade ago. No way Peyton chooses to face those two twice a season and compete for a division title with them. Not to mention performing in 4 outdoor venues 8 games a season including 3 in cold weather zones. NEVAH GONNA HAPPEN.

Even the whole win with another team baloney doesn't resonate with a guy like Manning (or Brady) because to some extent every QB is a product of a system and the talent and coaching surrounding them. Adapting to another system (which would be easier for Brady purely because adaptability is one of his intangibles) or teaching your system to another whole offense and waiting for the talent even if suitable to adapt to it and then build rapore is a legacy crap shoot let alone for a guy with maybe 3-4 post prime years left.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

I think Manning's trade value for the Colts will actually improve if he plays with the Colts next year. He is still an unknown in regards to health. I can't see any team taking a chance with that salary and trading away draft picks not knowing how well he will hold up. Of course that means Irsay will have to pay him this year.....

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I keep wondering if the Colts would actually prefer to have Manning back and able to play at a decent level, trade the #1 and start rebuilding the team. Buy some time while also picking a non-Luck heir at QB, in addition to the bounty from trading the #1.

I understand the idea that Luck is once-in-a-generation, and this year proves the value of a top level QB. But IMO this year and recent years also show that more QBs these days are able to come out and have an impact in short time. And, hey — Brady, Rodgers and Brees weren't exactly Top 10 picks. You have to think there are other QBs not named Luck coming out within the next couple of years who can lead that franchise down the road, with a rebuilt supporting cast.

I think one of the reasons Polian and his kid are gone is because they wanted to at least contemplate that and Irsay doesn't. I think Irsay is prepared to pay the piper if Manning is healthy, but he's also determined to draft Luck. Not sure that will work for the players.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think Manning's trade value for the Colts will actually improve if he plays with the Colts next year. He is still an unknown in regards to health. I can't see any team taking a chance with that salary and trading away draft picks not knowing how well he will hold up. Of course that means Irsay will have to pay him this year.....

And once they do they are really stuck with him for 2 years because of dead cap. By 2014 when the cap goes up dramatically and the dead cap has dropped to $19M, still a dose but better than $38M or $28M, they could manage a trade but for what with Manning then 38 and signed for just two more seasons. And that gets into Irsay's psychosis about becoming his dad who traded away Unitas at the end of his career.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think Manning's trade value for the Colts will actually improve if he plays with the Colts next year. He is still an unknown in regards to health. I can't see any team taking a chance with that salary and trading away draft picks not knowing how well he will hold up. Of course that means Irsay will have to pay him this year.....

And paying them both this year will result in a $22M+ hit against the cap for the position and a cash outlay of $51M in bonus and salary to the two. Coupled with the loss of the #1 pick to the position and the bind that would put Irsay and his new FO in as far as FA...it's no wonder it's taking Jim some time to even locate a new GM let alone make coaching decisions.

I know a lot of fans are berserk that Indy somehow managed to lose a Manning season and have Luck fall in their laps. It's not the panacea you think it is. It's actually something of a conundrum. And it could reverberate for the next 3-5 seasons...

 

[Joker]

Haven't seen Luck play much...unlike, it seems, most of the people contributing opinions in this thread. What I have seen is a game this season in conference and the recent bowl game. Yeah, he's a quarterback alright...and he throws and throws in a pro style passing attack.The games I have seen he's throwing to wide open receivers with yards of separation.In that respect, he looks like any number of good QB prospects with strong arms coming out this season.This "specialness" I fail to grasp...perhaps because I'm too unskilled at understanding the nuances in a player's performance that separate him from the pack.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, I remember Akili Smith, drafted THIRD by the Bengals, and of course, Jamarcus Russell, taken #1 by the Raiders recently...there's
the Ryan Leaf paradigm for overinflated draft hysterics...Jack Thompson, the Throwin' Samoan, also picked third in the draft..how about Art Schlichter and his "unlimited potential!!" drafted 4th...who saw THAT crash and burn coming?...Heath Shuler drafted 3rd...and then there's Tim Couch, drafted #1....

I guess what I'm getting at is IF Peyton Manning is healthy enough to play, wouldn't it make more sense to see what this #1 pick fetches in this obvious "Luck mania" landscape? They NEED a young center,healthy stud WR's, defensive line infusion, linebackers, safety help,stud corners...this is a bad team that needs a major rebuild and Luck may give them that "Herschel Walker" option,given all this Luck lust shown by 99% of the football world's experts and analysts.

The wild card here of course is the Irsays...in case anyone has forgotten, they are bull goose looney tunes and capable of anything, including paying Manning AND Luck going forward...which I would certainly welcome, given my distaste for their organization.The one idea I cannot seem to wrap my head around is Indy TRADING or RELEASING Manning. The first seems like an impossibility and the second option would cause open farmer revolt on the streets of Indy. Just my two cents.