Welcome to PatsFans.com

OT: A Denver story with New England insight

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Box_O_Rocks, Jul 27, 2009.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,544
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    Paige: McD wants defenses' hate - The Denver Post
     
  2. JSn

    JSn Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2008
    Messages:
    7,447
    Likes Received:
    31
    Ratings:
    +32 / 0 / -0

    Nice find. I think they're O is going to be better than most people think.
     
  3. Brady-To-Branch

    Brady-To-Branch Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    May 3, 2006
    Messages:
    726
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +3 / 10 / -1

    Orton isn't that bad. In fact, his numbers weren't that much worse than Cutler's. OTOH, when Cutler was in Denver, he played behind the best OL in the league and had a strong WR corps. Orton's OL in Chicago was terrible and he didn't have good WRs.

    Orton is 21-12 as a starter.
    Cutler's record is 17-20.

    Orton in 2008:
    TD% 3.9
    INT%: 2.6

    Cutler in 2008:
    TD%: 4.1
    INT%: 2.9

    Looks like the Cutler apologists will be working overtime this season.
     
  4. Synovia

    Synovia In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2008
    Messages:
    3,922
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0


    Cutler DVOA : 22.7% - 5th in league
    Orton DVOA: -.9% - 21st in league

    I like Orton, and think he'll do fine, but the idea that they had similar years last year is absolute lunacy.
     
  5. Brady-To-Branch

    Brady-To-Branch Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    May 3, 2006
    Messages:
    726
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +3 / 10 / -1

    I'm not a big fan of DVOA. It's too complex, involves too many useless factors like passing yards (which doesn't correlate to winning PCT) and strays away from INTs which is usually the difference between winning and losing.

    To illustrate how inaccurate it is, compare the 2 QBs after the 2009 season. Ignoring the fact that Orton wins more games and make fewer mistakes than Cutler, while being surrounded by bad O-lines and mediocre receivers, is lunacy.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2009
  6. BritPat

    BritPat In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2006
    Messages:
    4,808
    Likes Received:
    117
    Ratings:
    +356 / 4 / -4

    #54 Jersey

    You can't use stats and numbers to decide who was better than who.

    Orton's a good player, but Cutler (whilst being a whiny punk) is on the verge of being an elite QB. The Bears receiving corps will be a big test for him though - can he do what Brady did and survive without any truly outstanding receivers?
     
  7. Brady-To-Branch

    Brady-To-Branch Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    May 3, 2006
    Messages:
    726
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +3 / 10 / -1

    Yes you can, provided they are the right numbers. There are stats that directly correlate with winning percentage.

    Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Quality Stats

    Here one that measures team offensive efficiency.

    http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_986_Scoreability_Index.html

    Note that in 2008, the Bears were #1 in Yards Per Point Scored while the Denver ranked 28th.

    Maybe the notion of similar seasons between the 2 QBs was lunacy after all?
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2009
  8. Synovia

    Synovia In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2008
    Messages:
    3,922
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    You clearly do not understand DVOA. It does not use passing yards, it uses first downs. It penalizes HEAVILY for ints.

    Orton "wins more games" because his defense isn't terrible, not because hes a better QB. Orton doesn't make less mistakes, he makes more, and makes them in situations that cost the team more. Thats what DVOA says.


    Cutler threw a lot of picks because his team was always down a ton of points because his defense couldn't stop anyone. Its tough not throwing picks when you throw 45 times a game and 35 of those passes are into nickle and dime.
     
  9. Synovia

    Synovia In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2008
    Messages:
    3,922
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    Correlating with winning percentage doesn't mean they predict future performance, or are indicative of skill.


    Teams that onside kick in the last 5 minutes of the game lose almost all the time, so the key is, when it gets to the end of the game, don't onside kick at any cost.:rolleyes:
     
  10. Synovia

    Synovia In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2008
    Messages:
    3,922
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    Yards per point scored? What in the hell?
     
  11. farn

    farn 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2009
    Messages:
    1,882
    Likes Received:
    38
    Ratings:
    +96 / 2 / -4

    I like Orton. I think they're better off with a player who has a winning record (Cutler did not), who is willing to follow the coaches' advice (Cutler, dunno), and be accurate, not a gunslinger.

    Denver won't win the SB, but they'll exceed expectations if given the chance. Rocky start for McD though...
     
  12. Synovia

    Synovia In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2008
    Messages:
    3,922
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    Cutler's career completion percentage is 7.5% higher than Orton's.
     
  13. Brady-To-Branch

    Brady-To-Branch Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    May 3, 2006
    Messages:
    726
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +3 / 10 / -1

    I stand corrected

    Not heavily enough.

    The Bears were mediocre defensively in 2009. Moreover, being a team sport, the QB that makes less mistakes is the better QB.


    Blame the Defense. Sorry that doesn't excuse Cutler's brutal performance down the stretch. His INT in the Red Zone against Buffalo, alone, cost his team the division.

    As I said, you'll see in 2009 what a superior QB Orton is to Cutler.

    It's become the poor man's Peyton/Brady argument.
     
  14. Brady-To-Branch

    Brady-To-Branch Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    May 3, 2006
    Messages:
    726
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +3 / 10 / -1

    That is negated by his INT%.
     
  15. farn

    farn 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2009
    Messages:
    1,882
    Likes Received:
    38
    Ratings:
    +96 / 2 / -4

    Touché. Nice one. Didn't realize. May I play the "Cutler's receivers made him better and Orton's receivers suck" card ? Or is that too lame ?

    Either way, Orton won't be a malcontent. He'll be McD's "guy" (until Josh picks up the phone and it gets out) and he'll not "buck the system". We'll see. Glad NE has Brady instead of Cutler.

    Edit : haha - while I was writing, B-t-B came to my rescue mentionning his INTs. Yea me.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2009
  16. lurker1965

    lurker1965 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2009
    Messages:
    1,851
    Likes Received:
    69
    Ratings:
    +162 / 6 / -8

    No Jersey Selected

    Easy to understand total yards divided by total points (or is it vice versa).
     
  17. Bartmac36

    Bartmac36 On the Game Day Roster

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2009
    Messages:
    268
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Kyle will do just fine in Denver as long as Marshall stays there...I have faith they can be better than people expect, but I don't plan on them doing groundbreaking stuff on offense...
     
  18. nashvillepatsfan

    nashvillepatsfan In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2007
    Messages:
    3,083
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +6 / 0 / -0

    ummm, does this imply that Josh had something to do with the teams success????? :eek: I know some people on here, that will not be happy to hear that :rolleyes:
     
  19. Brady-To-Branch

    Brady-To-Branch Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    May 3, 2006
    Messages:
    726
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +3 / 10 / -1

    It measures efficiency.

    Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Final 2008 Scoreability Index

    The 2008 Bears averaged a point for every 12.62 yards gained, which is best in the league. Denver ranked 28th. They led the league in total net yards but didn't have to points to show for it. That was primarily due to long drives killed by Cutler INTs.

    McDaniels is cut from the same cloth as Parcells, BB, Mangini, Weis, etc. They don't want QBs who make bad decisions.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2009
  20. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2004
    Messages:
    5,879
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +67 / 4 / -1

    #12 Jersey

    It seemed to me that Cutler really struggles on the opponents side of the field. It like he wants to make the big play, even though it is clear that it won't work. Ball protection is teachable. Proper decision making is not so teachable.

    I think whichever QB has the most pressure put on him by their respective team will perfrom the worst.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>