Soul_Survivor88
Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
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Jason Lisk of The Big Lead says there's significant reason to believe that trading for a young quarterback with a high ceiling (and some experience starting in the NFL) might actually be a better investment than drafting a QB even with a Top 5 pick!
(Jimmy Garoppolo-Type Acquisitions Have Outperformed First Round Quarterbacks)
Lisk looked back over 30 years of transactions to find quarterbacks of Garoppolo’s age (25-28 years old) that were acquired with less than one season of starting experience to see how they succeeded over the next five years, and compared them to the first five years of 1st round quarterbacks.
It’s clear that can’t-miss quarterbacks selected 1st overall- like Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck- are better investments than acquiring a quarterback; 1st overall quarterbacks start 8+ years in the NFL 69% of the time and achieve "elite" status 10% of the time.
But it seems like trading for a player like Garoppolo yields better results than any other draft pick. Quarterbacks like Garoppolo- which includes the likes of Matt Hasselbeck, Mark Brunnell, and Matt Schaub- start at least 8 games 71% of the time, playing above average 44% of the time, and obtain "elite" status 10% of the time. Furthermore, these kinda of quarterbacks end up starting for careers that last 8 or more years 20% of the time.
Meanwhile, those drafted 2nd to 5th overall are above average only 23% of the time. Furthermore, QBs that are drafted 6th to 17th only start 8+ games 49% of the time, are above average just 19% of the time, and elite only 4% of the time. So in other words, Garoppolo-types are twice more likely to be successful long-term, than quarterbacks selected 18th to 32nd overall.
Rich Hill of patspulpit.com sums it up best: "[W]hen the Patriots start the price discussion for Garoppolo, they should point at the weak class of quarterbacks entering the draft, the laughable success rate of 1st round quarterbacks taken outside of the top 3, and whether or not Garoppolo is a more sure-fire bet than any other draft prospect. The Patriots could also highlight that Garoppolo showed more potential in 6 quarters of football than most of the other quarterbacks that were acquired in Lisk’s study."
(Jimmy Garoppolo-Type Acquisitions Have Outperformed First Round Quarterbacks)
Lisk looked back over 30 years of transactions to find quarterbacks of Garoppolo’s age (25-28 years old) that were acquired with less than one season of starting experience to see how they succeeded over the next five years, and compared them to the first five years of 1st round quarterbacks.
It’s clear that can’t-miss quarterbacks selected 1st overall- like Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck- are better investments than acquiring a quarterback; 1st overall quarterbacks start 8+ years in the NFL 69% of the time and achieve "elite" status 10% of the time.
But it seems like trading for a player like Garoppolo yields better results than any other draft pick. Quarterbacks like Garoppolo- which includes the likes of Matt Hasselbeck, Mark Brunnell, and Matt Schaub- start at least 8 games 71% of the time, playing above average 44% of the time, and obtain "elite" status 10% of the time. Furthermore, these kinda of quarterbacks end up starting for careers that last 8 or more years 20% of the time.
Meanwhile, those drafted 2nd to 5th overall are above average only 23% of the time. Furthermore, QBs that are drafted 6th to 17th only start 8+ games 49% of the time, are above average just 19% of the time, and elite only 4% of the time. So in other words, Garoppolo-types are twice more likely to be successful long-term, than quarterbacks selected 18th to 32nd overall.
Rich Hill of patspulpit.com sums it up best: "[W]hen the Patriots start the price discussion for Garoppolo, they should point at the weak class of quarterbacks entering the draft, the laughable success rate of 1st round quarterbacks taken outside of the top 3, and whether or not Garoppolo is a more sure-fire bet than any other draft prospect. The Patriots could also highlight that Garoppolo showed more potential in 6 quarters of football than most of the other quarterbacks that were acquired in Lisk’s study."
