Actually, no. From what I read, you are saying that the fact that the Pats have the Raiders 3rd round pick doesn't make a damn bit of difference in the supplemental draft. I disagree. I believe that it does.
Also, according to Brandt, there are 3 ways the NFL has determined the order for the supplemental draft. The 1st way was every teams name was put into a hat and drawn out. The second way (as stated in his 2003 article) was the previous year's draft order. And the 3rd way, based on the 2006 article, was that there are now 3 tiers (as you said). What I don't see, one way or the other, is that its strictly based on the TEAMS and not on the PICKS. Neither the Brandt article nor the about.com article imply anything either way.
Yes, your first statement has my position right. While the pick is available for the Patriots to forfeit, I do not see, as Mike Reiss does, how it gives the Patriots the right to jump into the Raiders priority slot for the third round. If I read the tier system correctly, and assuming the percentages hold in the lottery(ties broken alphabetically), the NFL Priority list will be:
Tier 1:
1. Oakland
2. Detroit
3. Cleveland
4. Tampa Bay
5. Arizona
6. Washington
7. Houston
8. Miami
9. Minnesota
Tier 2:
10. Atlanta
11. Buffalo
12. San Francisco
13. Carolina
14. Cincinnati
15. Green Bay
16. Jacksonville
17. Pittsburgh
18. St. Louis
19. Tennessee
20. Denver
Tier 3:
21. New York Giants
22. Dallas
23. Kansas City
24. Seattle
25. New Orleans
26. New York Jets
27. Philadelphia
28. Indianapolis
29. New England
30. Baltimore
31. Chicago
32. San Diego
This is the order for the entire supplemental draft...it doesn't change depending on what round is bid. We're together right now, yes?
From what has been linked to this thread, each team then has the option of delivering a secret bid to the commissioners office, and here's where we diverge as far as I can tell: According to everything I've read, each team has delivered a list of desired players to the commissioner's office, along with which round they want to draft them in. The commissioner then sorts each bid by player. For the sake of simplicity, let's say Oliver is the only player who any team wants to spend a draft choice on. Whichever team has bid the highest round for Oliver is awarded him. If multiple teams bid the same round, the team with the highest priority gets him. This is what has been written, and if we're assuming the authors of the articles are correct, this is the process. This seems cut and dried. If the Patriots and four other teams bid a third round pick on Oliver, the team with the highest priority ranking gets him. Oakland can't bid round three. The Patriots can. That doesn't mean the Patriots can bid round three with the Raiders priority number.
Now, where there is room for some confusion, is that while it isn't mentioned, it's possible that the authors of these articles have assumed that there has been no trading, and that each team owns their original pick in the third round of next year's draft, as BelichickFan mentioned a few pages ago. If that's case, maybe the teams do not bid the round they want to draft the player, but instead indicate the draft position they wish to use. Not only are we assuming the authors' assumption in this case, it really doesn't make sense, since we don't know the 2008 draft order yet, and it's possible that the Raiders pick will be after the Patriots pick in the third round.
The only other possibility is that each team who has acquired a pick with another team take over their priority ranking for each particular round, which I believe is the way you believe it is. That seems way too complicated to be reasonable, as there would need to be seven different priority lists drawn up for the draft, possibly necessitating seven different lotteries to be help for each tier.