Following the injuries on both sides- with Hines Ward being out, it looks most likely that the Steelers are going to commit to the long game, with Wallace and Brown working outside the hashes. I expect us to open in the nickel with a 3-4 look (or pure 3-4) because we are capable (and have proven) that we can stop their run game. Mendenhall did not run on us very well last year and only bit off big chunks in garbage time (Wallace padded his stats the same way). I think I would be happy if we went with the Ruby look in the nickel (three safeties).
Sanders, with vastly better speed and quickness, is more than capable of replacing Ward's production, if not his toughness. Sanders was used very effectively last year as a move-the-chains wideout on 3rd downs, and is an excellent young talent. I think the impact of Ward's absence is both in the run game (where he's essentially used as a 2nd blocking TE), as well as on Miller, who may be asked to block even more than usual (a shame because I think Miller could have success underneath in the passing game.)
The upside to cutting Bodden is the loud message it sends to the rest of the secondary: "We don't care what your pedigree is; if you're not with the program and not putting out 100%, you are out." I am sure that the secondary corp knows the onus is on them to prove themselves, and I think this is going to be a make or break game in terms of their confidence.
As an outside observer, I'm baffled regarding your secondary, which seemed loaded with high picks and good, young talent before the year started. Plus a great defensive coach to boot to coach them up...I'm surprised the unit hasn't taken a big step forward.
With all the noise on how Steelers D is experiencing some sort of resurgence- it's worth noting that all five of their wins have come against below .500 teams, and that's where they've padded their stats (e.g. #1 in pass D). As noted, they don't have anyone to match up with our TE's (more like hybrid WR's). Two of the big reasons that we have had overwhelming success against the Steelers are 1) Brady is deadly against zone defense, 2) we play spread against them and that forces their defense to play true more often than not. Polamalu is very effective when he is in the box, but when it's spread thin, he has more ground to cover and doesn't have the speed he once had.
I've stated similar things in other posts. We have terrible matchups not only on your TEs, but with Welker (where our slot CB Gay is average at best) and your pass-catching running backs (since neither Farrior or Foote run well, and the one LB who *can* cover, Timmons, has been moved outside due to the Harrison injury). Not sure who's suggesting the Steelers' D is experiencing some sort of "resurgence" btw, I think most observers acknowledge a decline in the defense, particularly in the run game where age and injury have led to a precipitous decline in the play of both Hampton and Smith (even before he was IR'd) .
I think that we will all know, within the first five minutes of the game if the Steelers are doing something different on defense. If they aren't, then it pretty much seals their fate.
I think the Pats match up incredibly well with the Steelers D, and we have some personnel issues in pass coverage that probably restrict what Lebeau can reasonably change schematically. Our DL doesn't generate pressure on its own, and our DBs (outside of Taylor) need LB pressure to hide their coverage weaknesses. When you spread the field and neutralize our LBs, we can look very average, and I think our D will have a difficult time getting off the field tomorrow.
I'd almost prefer that the Steelers blitzed more than 50% of the time and played press coverage (even though Brady kills the blitz, and our DBs are coached from day one to give soft cushions!) At least then we'd go out guns blazing, rather than "a death by a thousand cuts" (Pats constantly moving the chains with underneath stuff). I think our only real hope is that a monster game by Woodley and success with some of our blitzes keeps your scoring manageable, and we somehow outscore you. Short of that, I'm expecting something in the 41-20 ballpark (Pats victory).
Thanks for getting the thread back on track btw. Nice analysis
