Offensive Efficiency

[JaredOfNazareth]

Last season we had a very efficient offense. This year should be better. We won't need to "go for it" on fourth down as much(16 for 20!!!WTF?). We should get into the red zone more often too.

Last season we had 60 trips in the red zone and scored 36 TDs. San Diego had 62(lead the league) yet managed 42 TDs(68%). Scoring TDs isn't the issue. The issue is having scoring opportunities. It's like in baseball and getting guys to third base with zero or one out. The pats can already do that.

Can the pats go from 60% TDs, after reaching the red zone, to over 70% TDs? (like the 2005 seahawks)
Can they reach the red zone over 65 times?
Is this even possible without an elite back getting lots of carries?

That would be 20ppg for just the offense without field goals.

Corey Dillon did have 13 TDs last season though. Might be a big loss.

What do you guys think the impact will be?

 

[psychoPat]

....
Is this even possible without an elite back getting lots of carries?

....

Corey Dillon did have 13 TDs last season though. Might be a big loss.

What do you guys think the impact will be?

That was on my mind, too, when Corey left.
He did make the tough yards - even when they knew he was comin'.

I console myself by imagining that
... given the newly formidable aerial game ...
Sammy Morris '07 can be as productive as Corey Dillon '06.

 

[Metaphors]

Last season we had a very efficient offense. This year should be better. We won't need to "go for it" on fourth down as much(16 for 20!!!WTF?). We should get into the red zone more often too.

I guess it depends on how you measure efficiency. A good measure might be TDs scored per possession where a TD was the goal (eliminate kneel-downs, possessions in blowout situations and end-of-half FGs). Kind of hard to do but there are such a limited number of possessions statistically, including situations where the offense (or opposing defense) wasn't trying to score/prevent a TD just makes the results less meaningful.

That being said, I agree the offense should be more efficient, even though I disagree that the Pats will get into the red zone more often. The skill position players this year, when healthy, should give the Pats a dimension they haven't had in the Brady era...the ability to take a short play and turn it into a scoring play from anywhere on the field. Opposing defense should be fairly spread out, which creates seams. Maroney, Moss, Stallworth and Watson all have the talent to take advantage of these seams and score from outside the red zone.

So much of the burden of the Pats' offense has fallen on the shoulders of Brady (duh), that it is amazing how efficient the offense has been. This year, Brady only has to get it to the playmakers on-time and in the right position and they will do the rest. This has always been the key difference between the Colts and Pats...Manning had the horses and he rode them perfectly. Brady has been forced to pull the wagon more times than not.

Agree with your comment on 4th downs. How many times last year did the Pats face a 3rd-and-whatever and gain (whatever - 1) yards? Far too many (looking at you Reche). Welker is a key guy in this area. If he can get (whatever + 1) yards on 3rd down consistently, a 2nd round pick was a small price to pay.

So more efficient? Definitely. Efficient in the same way as previous years? Don't think so. Good enough for ring #4? It should be fun finding out.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I have to agree with Metaphors, there is no doubt that BB is building a receiving corp that can strike from anywhere on the field or at worst open up the middle of the field for a Welker or Watson to burst one through the dep seam.
Faulk should have 1 or 2 huge draw plays per game with all the deep speed and slot weapons.

 

[LA Pats Fan]

Going for it of forth Down?

Gee I hope we never have a 4th Down.

 

[cstjohn17]

I am not sure about all the stats but I viewed the 06 offense as inconsistent, it never seemed to be in rhythm. As you mentioned the red zone production was greatly enhanced by Dilion's uncany ability to pound the ball in. A lot of of TDs were 6 or 7 yards which are huge amounts of yardage to gain within the 15 when the box is so congested.

Play action is also a big weapon close to the goal line, but play action is based on the threat of a running game. Any offense would rather hand the ball off at the 5 and get a TD than get all fancy with some kind of passing play. It remains to be seen how productive the running game will be at getting the tough yards. They should be aided by the threat of the pass and the blocking of K. Brady.

Where the passing game will be scary is from midfield to about the opponent 30. The playbook is wide open and we should expect quite a few 40-50 yard TDs.

Personally I hope they play some where in the middle and try to rack up 10-12 even 14 yard drives. Those drives are killers, both physically and mentally. Look at what the Colts did to the Pats in the AFC Championship. The Pats protected deep and Manning shredded them with a bunch of short plays. Call it the dink and dunk on steriods (plus the odd 50 yard TD to keep things honest).

 

[maverick4]

Last season we had 60 trips in the red zone and scored 36 TDs. San Diego had 62(lead the league) yet managed 42 TDs(68%). Scoring TDs isn't the issue. The issue is having scoring opportunities. It's like in baseball and getting guys to third base with zero or one out. The pats can already do that.

This is because we have explosive offensive talent, but mediocre coaching from OC Josh McDaniels. Our offense marches down the field due to our quality talent, but poor play calling and situation awareness results in an impotent red zone offense.

 

[Grizzafted]

We're going to miss Corey Dillon.

 

[jczxohn1]

One measure of offensive efficiency should be the ability to win the time-of-possession battle. Keeping the defense off the field and rested in the second half is critical as evidenced by the AFCC game.

 

[Va_Pats_Fan]

if the team is on the 10, and you put Moss, Stallworth and Brady to one side, there are not enough quality CB's on any team to cover the possibilities. Just throw it up...