NFL Playoff Machine?

[supafly]

There's no doubt Tony Romo is a top 10 regular season quarterback based off of production. His stats don't lie. It would be disingenuous to state otherwise, IMO.

His problem, and until he shakes off that label, will be his performance in big games and clutch moments. His reputation, fair or unfair, has been caused a lot by his own hands. Despite our disdain for him, Eli is usually fairly clutch (read: lucky) in big moments with the game on the line. Romo's one playoff victory and failing to produce in the clutch, not just merely in the fourth quarter, will stay him with forever until he does something about it. I'm cautiously doubtful until I actually see it. Gotta see it to believe it type thing.

I think Romo's personality and the fact that he hasn't had any postseason success are reasons why he gets all the hate he does as opposed to someone like Peyton, who is a great regular season QB as well and puts up amazing stats, but doesn't always deliver in the clutch or with the game on the line either.

His 4th quarter QB rating is the highest of any active QB in the league by far with an approximate 112 QB rating.

However, his last 5 minutes of the game QB rating goes down to slightly below a pedestrian 80 QB Rating. I think that's his biggest problem that he'll have to overcome, as you said.

I just find it amusing that so many had such a problem with DAL choosing to extend him for what amounts to the new norm for franchise QB's. What the hell else were they supposed to do? Start over from scratch with a rookie? Go to a journeyman like Jason Campbell, Ryan Fitzpatrick? It seems more than obvious that Tony Romo is certainly a top 10 (top 12 at WORST) NFL QB in this league. They paid him the going rate for franchise QBs.

...not that I'm meaning to claim that he's some great player either. I do think he's definitely better than average, and I think having a career QB rating the same as Tom Brady's proves that. (95--96 QB rating)

It's a shame that every year he'll likely continue to throw an INT or two late in games, as he's forced to try and comeback from a deficit or some idiot like Austin runs the wrong route, etc. Better coaching and upper management would probably help his cause, not like we'll ever see it though.

 

[Ozymandias]

BAL definitely isn't making anyone shake in their boots this year, but they've actually gotten better on defense, despite all of the expert predictions around here that they've lost 200 guys on that side of the ball, etc. As we have seen, some of those players were seriously overrated last year to say the least; and the replacements that they've made have proven to be just as capable if not more capable, of doing just as well and continuing to play tough Baltimore defense.

I may have to study their game tape more keenly because I thought their defense looked horrendous early on to now being decent. I may be wrong because all I've seen of them has been games on TV and Redzone without the ability to dissect them through coaches tape.

Based on what I've seen their D looks to be dominant against the run, but highly susceptible to the pass in their secondary. That seems like the type of defense this Patriots offense has been feasting on as of late.

Their biggest problem and loss that they haven't been able to overcome has actually been on the offensive side of the ball, and that has been with WR Anquan Boldin. They simply haven't been able to replace his production and are failing to throw the ball. This in turn has also affected the production of RB Ray Rice, and obviously goes hand in hand with QB Joe Flacco's problems too. The return of favorite TE Dennis Pitta may help that out a bit down the stretch however.

And to be frank re: Boldin, without him they don't beat the Patriots in the AFCCG game IMO. His play made a monstrous difference in the game. The Ravens definitely failed in replacing that type of impact. Rice looks very ordinary this season - whether that's injuries or he's in his decline phase. As for Pitta, I'm not expecting much from him despite the good reports. We know first hand that hip injuries are always tricky. He had a similar injury as Percy Harvin did, and Harvin has struggled to remain healthy. I'd be shocked if Pitta were playing and contributing major snaps and production by the time they play the Pats.

The concern I'd have is that they historically (specifically and more appropriately lately) have caused us issues by playing tough defense. It's one of the reasons why I think we could have a chance of losing in 3 weeks down there @ Baltimore--which is always a tough place to play for anyone.

They definitely always played the Patriots tough in the past.

The fact that they've once again shown signs of turning it on at the right time of the season only adds to these concerns. I'm not saying that I'm scared of them, but they certainly are capable of causing us problems, particularly on their turf in a big Sunday Night Football primetime showdown. Should they make the playoffs at the 6th seed, which is probably likely at this point, they can certainly win a game or two to play the spoiler role.

They're still the champs until someone knocks them out of the tournament (or if they don't make the tournament altogether) so you can definitely never overlook them. I'm just not scared of them like I was last season, like you said.

In last year's playoffs I honestly thought the Patriots were better off playing against Denver based on how they matched up than the Ravens, even if it were to be in Mile High. That Ravens team definitely scared me, this one like you said, doesn't.

I think the biggest difference has been the Patriots being battle tested this year to get them ready for such a game and situation. They've had to win a variety of ways this season. I think they'll be ready for 'em in week 16. Not saying the Patriots are guaranteed a win, but I think there's definitely going to be some added emphasis. The Patriots will have the revenge factor and perhaps the ability to end Baltimore's playoff hopes on the line. I think they'll definitely be up for that and would love nothing more than to do just that.

 

[Ozymandias]

His 4th quarter QB rating is the highest of any active QB in the league by far with an approximate 112 QB rating.

However, his last 5 minutes of the game QB rating goes down to slightly below a pedestrian 80 QB Rating. I think that's his biggest problem that he'll have to overcome, as you said.

I just find it amusing that so many had such a problem with DAL choosing to extend him for what amounts to the new norm for franchise QB's. What the hell else were they supposed to do? Start over from scratch with a rookie? Go to a journeyman like Jason Campbell, Ryan Fitzpatrick? It seems more than obvious that Tony Romo is certainly a top 10 (top 12 at WORST) NFL QB in this league. They paid him the going rate for franchise QBs.

...not that I'm meaning to claim that he's some great player either. I do think he's definitely better than average, and I think having a career QB rating the same as Tom Brady's proves that. (95--96 QB rating)

It's a shame that every year he'll likely continue to throw an INT or two late in games, as he's forced to try and comeback from a deficit or some idiot like Austin runs the wrong route, etc. Better coaching and upper management would probably help his cause, not like we'll ever see it though.

Fair or unfair, I think people are always going to question why he's earning elite QB money without elite QB results. He hasn't delivered a ring, an NFC championship or anything of such sorts. All he has on his résumé is one playoff win and a lot of great regular season stats while leading his team to playoffs 3 out of his 7 seasons as a starter. To some that would mean he's undeserving of that contract.

At the time of the contract being signed, I think it was end of March, early April IIRC, I thought the Cowboys probably didn't believe that were any franchise QBs in the draft. I think if there were any, and they could get one, they likely don't do that deal at all and move on from him after this season.

Then again this is Jerry Jones we're talking about here, so logic probably doesn't apply. That's the real culprit behind Dallas' failures. It's Jones' refusal to remove himself from the football operations and hire a true GM. Romo will forever be the scapegoat.

 

[Gumby]

BAL definitely isn't making anyone shake in their boots this year, but they've actually gotten better on defense, despite all of the expert predictions around here that they've lost 200 guys on that side of the ball, etc. As we have seen, some of those players were seriously overrated last year to say the least; and the replacements that they've made have proven to be just as capable if not more capable, of doing just as well and continuing to play tough Baltimore defense.

Their biggest problem and loss that they haven't been able to overcome has actually been on the offensive side of the ball, and that has been with WR Anquan Boldin. They simply haven't been able to replace his production and are failing to throw the ball. This in turn has also affected the production of RB Ray Rice, and obviously goes hand in hand with QB Joe Flacco's problems too. The return of favorite TE Dennis Pitta may help that out a bit down the stretch however.

The concern I'd have is that they historically (specifically and more appropriately lately) have caused us issues by playing tough defense. It's one of the reasons why I think we could have a chance of losing in 3 weeks down there @ Baltimore--which is always a tough place to play for anyone.

The fact that they've once again shown signs of turning it on at the right time of the season only adds to these concerns. I'm not saying that I'm scared of them, but they certainly are capable of causing us problems, particularly on their turf in a big Sunday Night Football primetime showdown. Should they make the playoffs at the 6th seed, which is probably likely at this point, they can certainly win a game or two to play the spoiler role.

So, the Ravens can play spoiler - well lets remember who gets to play the 6 seed.

The 3 seed (likely cincy) and then if they win, the 1 Seed (likely Den).

Cry me a river if Ravens manage to get in (and even if can beat cincy). I think Ravens are much more likely to give Donkeys difficulties than any of the other WC-6 seed competitors.

6-6: Ravens-Fish
5-7: Jesters-Squeelers-Tenn-SD

They are probably a better match up to beat Donkeys than Indy as well.

Cincy is maybe a better D matchup to Denver than Ravens (definitely better O), but by playoff process only possible game the 3-seed visits the 1 seed is the AFCCG.

Impossible to know right now as Patriots playoff potential every year seems to always be health-driven, but I would be pretty optimistic about a re-match of last year's game with a healthy Gronk and no Boldin-Pollard.

 

[Rob0729]

I remember both Pats fans and Denver fans dismissing Baltimore last year.

Regular season means nothing.

I said the Pats could lose to the Ravens, but I am saying they will have to do it on defense and make the game a lower scoring event rather than Flacco airing out the ball.

Also, I said that I doubt the Pats lose to BOTH the Dolphins and Ravens. I could see a loss to one (more likely the Ravens than the Dolphins), but not both.

I don't know if this Ravens' team is anywhere what last year's team is - at least on offense. It was the emergence of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta that gave both the Pats and Broncos fits. The current receivers they have were relatively quite in the playoffs.

Lastly, I think the Pats would have won the AFCCG last year with a healthy Gronk. The Pats had no problem moving the ball outside the red zone. It was lack of a red zone target that did the Pats in in that game.

 

[Rob0729]

BAL definitely isn't making anyone shake in their boots this year, but they've actually gotten better on defense, despite all of the expert predictions around here that they've lost 200 guys on that side of the ball, etc. As we have seen, some of those players were seriously overrated last year to say the least; and the replacements that they've made have proven to be just as capable if not more capable, of doing just as well and continuing to play tough Baltimore defense.

Their biggest problem and loss that they haven't been able to overcome has actually been on the offensive side of the ball, and that has been with WR Anquan Boldin. They simply haven't been able to replace his production and are failing to throw the ball. This in turn has also affected the production of RB Ray Rice, and obviously goes hand in hand with QB Joe Flacco's problems too. The return of favorite TE Dennis Pitta may help that out a bit down the stretch however.

The concern I'd have is that they historically (specifically and more appropriately lately) have caused us issues by playing tough defense. It's one of the reasons why I think we could have a chance of losing in 3 weeks down there @ Baltimore--which is always a tough place to play for anyone.

The fact that they've once again shown signs of turning it on at the right time of the season only adds to these concerns. I'm not saying that I'm scared of them, but they certainly are capable of causing us problems, particularly on their turf in a big Sunday Night Football primetime showdown. Should they make the playoffs at the 6th seed, which is probably likely at this point, they can certainly win a game or two to play the spoiler role.

A few things:

• I think the Ravens hopes for the return of Pitta is mostly wishful thinking. It is amazing he is even on the practice field now with the injury he had, but I seriously doubt he will be in football shape this year. My guess is that if he wasn't in a contract year, he would have not rushed back.
• The Ravens' defense is better this year, but they are still not the fearsome defense of the past. They are slightly better than last year, but not worlds.
• The Ravens didn't do all that well on defense the last time they played the Pats in a regular season night game. The game last year was a shoot out (the Pats scored 30 points and Brady threw for 335 yards). I think the Pats would have done well on offense in the playoffs last year with Gronk because the Pats had no red zone defense.
• I agree that the loss of Boldin is the biggest loss. It is quite clear that they are missing that big possession receiver who creates match up problems. Torrey Smith is still too inconsistent to be a consistent threat (although he is more consistent this year than his last two).

 

[borg]

@Baltimore and @Miami are not easy games. Let's hope Cincy drops at least one more game.

Love the optimism on the board.....but....
Lets ingest a little reality here. As presently constituted, this is the worst Patriots defense in the pass happy era that began for NE in 2007. Missing pieces, dinged pieces,substandard pieces. The defense is wretched. Combine this defense with an offense that is less explosive than years past and it is difficult to believe this team can progress in the post season. Maybe all it takes is a healthy Gronk...lets hope so. As great as Brady has been since the Gronk return, the offense has been schizophrenic. Halves with no output, RB turmoil, WR roulette. It's amazing that BB has held this leaky ship together....maybe his best coaching job ever.
The AFC is one flawed creation...imperfect team after imperfect team...So the real question is...Which imperfection will get exposed in the playoffs? If history has shown us anything, defensive prowess takes a front seat in the playoffs which is a big problem for NE. Points given up in the last 4 games....31,24,31,31. Its ugly...but what are you going to do.
Going forward, I'll treat every win as an unexpected gift considering the patchwork D line they are left with. Depth at a few spots was an issue coming into the season and unfortunately BB went bust at the DT position. If only NE didn't have to waste so many #2 picks trying to find a serviceable DB, the depth issue at DT may never have been an issue...spilled milk. Thread after thread has been devoted to bust DB discussions but few have projected how wasted DB picks could have been used to fortify the rest of the roster....spilled milk.
So.....I am enjoying every win, marveling at NE's ability to defy odds and crank out win after win despite the depleted personnel. Most teams cave after one or two significant injuries.....not BB's boys....it is remarkable. But at the end of the day....the cream almost always rises and I fear the worst.
In 2001, my mind set was "Wouldn't that be something".
In 2003, my mind set was " Anything but a Lombardi would be a failure."
In 2013, my mind set is..."Let it ride.".....playing with house money so why not try to break the bank.

PS......The Seahawks remind me of the '03 Patriots....just strong everywhere. Tough not to like Seattles chances

 

[everlong]

Love the optimism on the board.....but....
Lets ingest a little reality here. As presently constituted, this is the worst Patriots defense in the pass happy era that began for NE in 2007. Missing pieces, dinged pieces,substandard pieces. The defense is wretched.

No it isn't. It's probably the worst run defense because of the losses in the middle of the front 7 but this pass defense is still pretty good when playing with all the available assets. They played a lot of zone against Houston so Talib must still be favoring his hip and Dennard is still out. Their defensive passer rating is 76 which is ten points lower than 2011 and 2012 and 5 points better than 2010. Their yards per attempt is 6.7 compared to 7.7, 8.0 and 7.1 going back the last three years. And that's with having played Manning, Brees, Rothleisburger, Ryan with Jones and White and Newton.

Having a better pass defense is why there's reason for optimism. If they get healthy for the playoffs they have as good of a shot as anybody in the AFC. If they make it that far and draw Seattle in the SB pray for snow to combat their defensive speed.

 

[everlong]

I think the Ravens are a scary prospect in the playoffs and want no part of them. The worst part is Cincinnati is likely locked into the 3 seed by week 17 and it comes down to if they want to play to knock the Ravens out because that would be their playoff opponent should they lose (in all likelihood). If they are the 6 seed I bet Denver fans are rooting like hell for the Bengals feeling they would much rather not have a divisional rematch and liking their chances against the Indy\KC winner.

 

[yukon cornelius]

i've got denver losing to SD...long shot, i know



when i picked all the remaining games....


Pats
Denver
Cinci
Indy
KC
Pitt



Seattle
NO
Dallas
Detroit
Carolina
SF


leads to some great WC matchups

Cinci/Pitt
SF/Dallas
Det/Carolina
Indy/KC

 

[50-yard-line]

i've got denver losing to SD...long shot, i know

In Denver?

Maybe if it's very cold and windy, but I doubt it.

I think Tennessee has a better chance, honestly, as it's supposed to be pretty cold there Sunday.

 

[jmt57]

More from PlayoffStatus.com


Approximate probability for each AFC Division Title:

AFC East: Pats 98%, Dolphins 2%
AFC North: Bengals 92%, Ravens 7%, Steelers 1%
AFC South: Colts 99%, Titans 1%
AFC West: Broncos 97%, Chiefs 3%


Approximate probability for each playoff seed in AFC:

#1: Broncos 80%, Pats 16%, Chiefs 2%, Bengals 1%, Colts 1%
#2: Pats 45%, Bengals 23%, Colts 16%, Broncos 14%, Chiefs 1%
#3: Bengals 36%, Colts 31%, Pats 29%, Broncos 2%, Dolphins 1%
#4: Colts 52%, Bengals 32%, Pats 9%, Dolphins 1%
#5: Chiefs 95%, Broncos 3%, Dolphins 1%
#6: Dolphins 38%, Ravens 23%, Steelers 15%, Titans 6%, Jets 6%, Bengals 4%, Chiefs 2%, Chargers 2%, Pats 1%, Bills 1%, Raiders 1%


Approximate Probability To Make Playoffs - AFC:

99+%: Broncos, Patriots, Colts, Chiefs
96%: Bengals
41%: Dolphins
30%: Ravens
16%: Steelers
6%: Titans, Jets
2%: Chargers
1%: Bills, Raiders



Approximate probability for each NFC Division Title:
NFC West: Seahawks 99%, 49ers 1%
NFC South: Saints 61%, Panthers 39%
NFC North: Lions 79%, Bears 12%, Packers 9%
NFC East: Cowboys 68%, Eagles 32%


Approximate probability for each playoff seed in NFC:

#1: Seahawks 97%, Saints 2%, Panthers 1%
#2: Saints 59%, Panthers 37%, Seahawks 1%, 49ers 1%, Eagles 1%
#3: Lions 36%, Cowboys 32%, Eagles 23%, Bears 6%, Saints 1%, Panthers 1%, Packers 1%
#4: Lions 43%, Cowboys 35%, Eagles 9%, Packers 8%, Bears 6%
#5: Panthers 45%, Saints 26%, 49ers 21%, Cardinals 4%, Seahawks 2%, Eagles 2%
#6: 49ers 53%, Panthers 12%, Saints 11%, Cardinals 10%, Eagles 9%, Cowboys 3%, Bears 1%


Approximate Probability To Make Playoffs - NFC:

100%: Seahawks
98%: Saints
96%: Panthers
80%: Lions
76%: 49ers
70%: Cowboys
44%: Eagles
14%: Cardinals
12%: Bears
9%: Packers

 

[yukon cornelius]

i've got denver losing to SD...long shot, i know



when i picked all the remaining games....


Pats
Denver
Cinci
Indy
KC
Pitt



Seattle
NO
Dallas
Detroit
Carolina
SF


leads to some great WC matchups

Cinci/Pitt
SF/Dallas
Det/Carolina
Indy/KC

just wanted to bring this back up

 

[meatface]

In Denver?

Maybe if it's very cold and windy, but I doubt it.

I think Tennessee has a better chance, honestly, as it's supposed to be pretty cold there Sunday.

welp. now sunday is even more important