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To be fair, though, a lot of us thought nothing would come of the original JEST incident, either.
Seriously, though, I keep coming back to a few simple points:
(1) If the tape exists, why haven't we seen it yet?
(2) Everything Goodell has learned so far points to the non-existence of the tape.
(3) While the Patriots have not necessarily been forthcoming about what has happened, at no point has anyone currently associated with the team clearly said something that was patently and demonstrably false. Given that Goodell apparently told Belichick that the penalty for lying to him would be a year's suspension plus further sanctions, why on earth would he lie to Goodell about this?
I must say every one of the last 3 points you make are good ones. But your first point is rather...well, pointless. Whatever we thought would happen regarding the Jets incident, we all knew we were caught red-handed. There was indisputeable proof.
With Matt Walsh, there is nothing. So the 2 can not be compared.