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Ok, with two weeks before camp, I figured I would get my season predictions out of the way. Of course I will probably change them by the beginning of the season. But what the hell:
Patriots
In General
Division Winners
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Cincy
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Broncos
Wild Cards: San Diego, Ravens
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Falcons
NFC West:Seahawks
Wild Cards: 49ers, Cardinals
Wild Card Round
Broncos over Ravens
San Diego over Cincy
Eagles over Cardinals
Falcons over 49ers
Division Round
Pats over San Diego
Broncos over Colts
Seahawks over Falcons
Packers over Eagles
Conference Championships
Pats over Broncos
Seahawks over Packers
Super Bowl
Patriots over Seahawks (that is my heart, my head says the other way)
Superlatives
MVP - Aaron Rodgers
OPOY - Brady
DPOY - Revis
OROY - Mike Evans
DROY - Clowney
General Thoughts
Patriots
In General
- The Pats will finish the season 13-3. I just think this season's schedule will be easier than last year.
- My early target for losses are @ Green Bay, @ Indy, and Cincy. Not that I think any are neccesarily better than the Pats. It is always hard to beat Green Bay in Green Bay especially in late November. Cincy is on a short week and the second night game in a row. Plus, their defense is a good match up for any offense. I think Indy treats the game like a playoff game for revenge for getting embarrassed in the playoffs last year.
- Gronk will play the entire year and have over 1,200 yards and 13 TDs
- Aaron Dobson will have over 1,000 yards
- Stork will win the starting job. Wendell gets cut.
- Brady will pass for over 5,000 yards and have 37 TDs
- We will see Vereen become close to what Sproles was in NO. He will have about 1,000 all purpose yards. I will say about 400 rushing and 600 receiving.
- White will take over the role that Woodhead left a year ago. He will have a solid rookie season as a situational RB. I say about 500 all purpose yards.
- LaFell will have about 600 yards and 6 TDs.
- Both Boyce and Thompkins make the final 53 roster. Boyce becomes the kick returner. Boyce has a better season than Thompkins. Thompkins is regularly inactive.
- Ridley has a bounce back year with about 1,100 yards and 9 TDs and only fumbling once.
- Amendola has a better year than Edelman. Amendola has about 900 yards and 6 TDs. Edelman has 800 yards and 5 TDs.
- NFL The defense will have the most blitzes of any season in the Belichick era
- The defense will look more like the Dynasty years in that you will see a lot more presnap movement and delayed blitzes and stunts than in recent year.
- Chandler Jones has 15 sacks or more sacks
- Easley will be practicing the first week of camp and gets 5 sacks his rookie season
- I think the starting CB opposite Revis (at least after week 4) will be a match up based type of call. I think Browner will start against big receivers. Dennard or Ryan will get the call against smaller ones.
- Hightower will play situational DE in subpackages and be primarily a pass rusher. He will have a bounce back year now that he will be playing in a position that fits his strength. I expect him to have 7 sacks.
- The DTs that make the roster are Wilfork, Kelly, Easley, Jones, and Siliga. Kelly will see the most time on the field than anyone. He will play most downs. Wilfork will play only primarily first and second down. Easley and Jones will be situational pass rushers. Siliga will be a run down specialist.
- Wilfork will have a subpar year at least for his standards. I will say he will be slightly above average coming down from his Pro Bowl caliber.
- Collins has a break out second year. I give him 7 sacks, 4 INTS, and 2 FF. He will be the guy who covers TEs unless Browner is on a certain play.
- Harmon has a solid second year. I think he more than adequately fills in for the starting position opposite McCourty.
- Speaking of McCourty, he has an All Pro season with the improved secondary and more aggressive front seven.
- The defense will be top five in points allowed. It will be in the top 10 in most key categories most importantly third downs.
- Revis will win DPOY. Not necessarily that he is the best defensive player in the league (although he might be), but the perception of the Patriots defense will be so radically shifted that people will give all the credit to him.
- Pat Chung is somewhat productive in a limited role.
- Will Smith ends up losing rotational snaps to players from other positions like Hightower and Easley. He starts the season as the second guy off the best after Michael Buchannon who has a nice second year jump in production. Smith could get cut during the season or not even make it out of camp. I like the signing, but something tells me he will disappoint.
Division Winners
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Cincy
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Broncos
Wild Cards: San Diego, Ravens
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Falcons
NFC West:Seahawks
Wild Cards: 49ers, Cardinals
Wild Card Round
Broncos over Ravens
San Diego over Cincy
Eagles over Cardinals
Falcons over 49ers
Division Round
Pats over San Diego
Broncos over Colts
Seahawks over Falcons
Packers over Eagles
Conference Championships
Pats over Broncos
Seahawks over Packers
Super Bowl
Patriots over Seahawks (that is my heart, my head says the other way)
Superlatives
MVP - Aaron Rodgers
OPOY - Brady
DPOY - Revis
OROY - Mike Evans
DROY - Clowney
General Thoughts
- Seattle will be the first Super Bowl winner since the Patriots (I think) to win a playoff game the following year.
- The Broncos offense take a significant step back this year (which will still make them very good). I think both Manning and Welker show their age this year. Manning has a solid season, but like Brady's last year will be a very bad year by his standards. For all the hype about Sanders becoming a 1,000 yard receiver with Manning, I think he falls far short of it by a decent amount (200-300 yards). Because of this and a tough schedule, I expect them to not have a bye this year.
- The AFC closes the gap a bit from with the NFC, but will still be a handful of quality teams and most of the conference will be mediocre to bad.
- The Colts will be a great regular season team (12-4), but crumble again in the playoffs when they face a good team in the division round. They will benefit from a weak division.
- Teams taking a step back (be worse than last year by a bit) will be Denver, 49ers, Carolina, KC, Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Jets
- Teams taking a step up will be Arizona, Green Bay, Atlanta, Baltimore, Washington
- Coaches getting fired: Joe Philbin, Doug Marrone (the Bills will be sold and they will look for a big name head coach), Dennis Allen, and Rex Ryan (yes, I am predicting a clean sweep of coaches in the AFC East not named Belichick this season)
- Geno Smith will win the fixed QB competition in the preseason even though Vick outplays him. Michael Vick will be starting for the Jets by week 5. Geno Smith will be starting again by week 10 because Vick is injured.
- As I said, the Bills will be sold most likely to Jon Bon Jovi's group. My prediction for next offseason is that they trade San Francisco for Jim Harbaugh.
- Colin Kaepernick has a big step back in production due to age wall drops in production from Frank Gore and Anquan Bolden.
- Eli Manning continues to struggle and either gets cut or traded after the season.
- Brian Hoyer wins the starting job in Cleveland.
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