My Thoughts on the NE/SD AFCCG Matchup

[Dojo Chargerfan]

HE HAD A WIDE OPEN HOLE! HE WASN'T TOUCHED!

Why would you lower your head if you weren't going to take contact?

no no no. Not lowering your head is not what he's bad at it's his center of gravity. It's too upright. Look at a LT video and see how LT runs sort of leaning forward, similar to before the ball is snapped when he has his hands on his knees, but Maroney quickly just stands right up and continues to stand up the whole way to the endzone except for one cut.

 

[Dojo Chargerfan]

here's my feelings in a nutshell:

The Patriots have proven they know how to win. Then win when they have to win and they win when they don't have to. They've won in blow-outs, squeakers and have come from behind in the 4th quarter on 4 different occasions.

The Chargers appear to be a team that is truly peaking in January, except they are hurt bad...let's not kid ourselves. But I'd say the same thing if they were 100% healthy.

Any who is predicting a Chargers victory is:

-Engaging in wishful thinking
-Hoping they can be the one who says, "I told you so"
-An Idiot

Now this is my opinion of course. But having said all the above, I STILL know the Chargers can win the game. I believe that with all my heart. I'm just saying that anyone here who predicts a Chargers victory is not doing it based upon football knowledge & facts and surely not based upon what we have witnessed this year.

But that's why they'll play the game this Sunday!

I'm not predicting anything. Just hoping. I know the Pats haven't been beaten. Plus, the more and more the weather gets worst the more and more I like our ODDS.

 

[BoltsFan]

Yesterday I posted my numerical analysis that determined that the Chargers have, in fact, outperformed NE down the stretch and into the playoffs. I said at the end that I would delve further into my opinions of the game at a later time in order to keep the thread from getting too bogged down. Well, guess what?! That time is NOW! :rocker:

* I keep hearing about this fabulously opportunistic defense that the Chargers possess. Despite some impressive numbers over their final 6 regular season games (even according to the points for/against) I haven't been all that impressed with their defense in the playoffs.

First, the Chargers allowed three long red zone drives to a completely neutered TN team - at home. I have to admit that the fumble was a very nice defensive play, but what the hell were the doing allowing that much yardage in the first place? TN was playing without their top 2 WRs and with a hobbled running QB. It was probably the worst 6 point performance I have seen in a while. I said at the time that Indy would drive all over that defense and put up 35 points on them. Obviously this prediction came out wrong, but I don't think I was far off at all.

Indy moved the ball almost at will against the Chargers, but were ultimately undone by their own errors. I'm sure that someone will counter this by saying that SD is great at forcing TOs, but that simply was not the case.

Harrison fumbled on the most benign of hits.

Wayne was open for a big gain and Manning just missed him. For all the accolades that Cromartie gets for making this int, he wasn't in any position to make a play if this is a better throw. This is similar to a C making a key rebound at the top of a key. Sure he made a nice play to get the ball, but why wasn't he under the basket where he was supposed to have been?

The worst one was Keith's drop. Every relevent defender was sealed off from the play and Keith would have strolled into the EZ had he made the catch. The reason Weddle's catch was so amazing was because he was blocked completely out of the play!

* Further along these lines, it wasn't just the TOs themselves that killed the Colts, it was the lost time. In a game where the TOP was basically even, Indy wasted 12 minutes of their offensive possessions by driving all the way down the field only to turn it over. Add in another 70 yard drive that ended in downs inside the 10 and you get a whopping 14:17 TOP and 223 yards on 4 drives that ended in 0 total points. 35 of Indy's 66 total plays were on these non-scoring drives.

No matter what my feelings about the TOs are, SD definitely deserves credit for the final drive. But Indy could easily have kicked a FG had they chose to, even under those circumstances. So, for all intents and purposes, Indy put up 27 points on SD in effectively 18 minutes of possession. Why should I fear this defense again?

Hell, even Indy's final drive could easily have ended in points had Clark made a relatively easy catch.

My point here is not to make excuses for anyone. I am just pointing out that opportunities were more prevelent than the final score may have indicated. And this isn't "the guy was open and Manning didn't have time to see him but I saw him on the replay" type opportunities.

* Last year, with less healthy TEs, an OL playing at a lower level, signifacantly worse WRs and a less effective running game NE still kept SD's pass rush at bay. And, frankly, their pass rush was quite a bit more fierce at that point than it is now. In fairness to SD, both Philips and Merriman left that game at various times.

* All that said, the biggest reason why I am extremely confident that NE's offense will not be thwarted by SD's defense is.........


Ted Cotrell.

Ted Cotrell is a terrible scheming DC. I'm sure that he might be a fabulous guy at teaching schemes or motivating guys or something, because I can't see how else he would keep getting jobs. The guy just doesn't scheme for various offenses well at all. Some of this showed with a reluctance to put more than 6 guys in the box against the team that ran the ball the most in the entire league, but it was never a hinderance against Indy because Indy just doesn't alter their objectives much. Fortunately for SD, they run a defense that happens to give Indy trouble without mixing stuff up.

Against NE, however, this just won't work. Even if SD's defense comes out with a few packages that NE wasn't expecting, Cotrell will keep running them long after NE has adjusted and he will not readjust until it is too late. NE's weapons are as plentiful as Indy's, but NE has the edge because they have more diversity of strengths, allowing them to tailor just about any type of offense needed.

* I am worried about SD's offense. Regardless of whether NE has been playing extremely simplistic schemes, I don't see NE holding SD under 17 points, and frankly I can see them going over 20. However, I think this might be the first game in a while where NE takes a few pass rush tricks out of the bag. Rewatching some of those plays from Jax, it seems as if NE was focusing on keeping Garrard in the pocket.

Against SD, no matter what QB plays, this won't be nearly as much of an issue against SD, but it is particularly so if Rivers plays. Scrambling and throwing on the run with two bad knees isn't exactly a winning formula.

Additionally, in the past couple games, NE has basically sent AD and Vrabes on outside rushes every passing down. This is the game that I can see them being more exotic and disguising where the 4th and 5th rushers are coming from.

* Many people have brought up the issue of the weather and how it affected the Baltimore game. I would like to point out a couple things:

1) The wind was much gustier against Baltimore than it projects to be this weekend.
2) Despite that and Baltimore's defensive tactics, NE was two dropped TDs - neither having anything to do with the defense - away from slapping down 35 points. On the road. In their 3rd straight night game.
3) Watson's drop was the worst because it was both the most eggregious and because it gave Baltimore some life after NE drove right down the field on their opening possession.

Against Philly, NE again did themselves in with a handful of drops with, amazingly enough, three of them coming on perfectly set up screens. Two of these happened on the same drive!

Again, just like the Indy/SD paragraph, if NE makes several unforced errors then SD will most certainly capitalize. The past has shown that they aren't above having a few drops, but make no mistake. It wasn't the weather that stopped NE from putting up 30+ against Baltimore.

* After the Jax game, I made a comparison to the TN playoff game if 2003. Well, this game is pretty damn close to the next one in 2003 as well. You have a #3 seed that plays extremely well down the stretch that wins a rematch in the first round and then takes down the #2 seed on the road. After the game, feeling a little too good about themselves, one of the players makes a (jestful?) comment that the NE could interpret as disparaging. Whether you take Olshansky's comments as a joke or not, you can be sure that NE took them very seriously. Just like last time.

So, all that said, what is my actual prediction?

For some reason the number 35-24 keeps jumping out at me. I don't particularly like it because I can't see NE scoring a TD every time they score, but I'm going to run with it anyway.

You might be right.

 

[TommyD4207]

no no no. Not lowering your head is not what he's bad at it's his center of gravity. It's too upright. Look at a LT video and see how LT runs sort of leaning forward, similar to before the ball is snapped when he has his hands on his knees, but Maroney quickly just stands right up and continues to stand up the whole way to the endzone except for one cut.

No no no.
Just because you repeat it, doesn't make it fact.
Tomlinson is a once in a generation back, not to mention a couple inches shorter and about the same weight as Maroney, hence your "Lower center of gravity".
No one here has compared Tomlinson to Maroney, so for you to do so now isn't only unfair; it's a red herring.

And, I'll reiterate what I said in the previous post, that you ignored.
He had a huge hole, and could have crawled into the endzone. Your "analysis" based on that cut is completely flawed.

 

[PatriotsReign]

I'm not predicting anything. Just hoping. I know the Pats haven't been beaten. Plus, the more and more the weather gets worst the more and more I like our ODDS.

Your odds are very bad, so you can't say you like them. But I understand what you're saying. The worse the weather looks, the better you feel your odds are.

I don't agree with you as most Patriots have played in bad winter weather many times. The odds of Brady performing well in bad weather are better than River's odds of playing well...doesn't that make sense?

 

[TommyD4207]

I'm not predicting anything. Just hoping. I know the Pats haven't been beaten. Plus, the more and more the weather gets worst the more and more I like our ODDS.

Why?
Why would a team that has played exactly ZERO cold weather games this year, in your mind, would have their odds IMPROVED in Single-Digit Wind Chill weather? You think the Chargers will magically be able to throw into a stiff wind better than the Patriots, who have a Quarterback who's done it 25 times in his career?

 

[DonBlackmon55]

Why?
Why would a team that has played exactly ZERO cold weather games this year, in your mind, would have their odds IMPROVED in Single-Digit Wind Chill weather? You think the Chargers will magically be able to throw into a stiff wind better than the Patriots, who have a Quarterback who's done it 25 times in his career?

Remeber this is a Dolt you're talking to. Reasoning and logic plays no role.

Need not worry, these Dolts will get to know Sunday the "Tampa Bay syndrome" of the last decade....how many playoff losses did they have in GB, NY, Philly....seemed like every year under 35F weather they went fetal.

 

[swuster]

You post like nobody on the West Coast has ever experienced / played in cold weather before...

Personally, I doubt temperature will be as big a factor. If anything, the "home" advantage will come from the support of the crowd and the ability to simply deafen the opposing offense.

 

[PatriotsReign]

You post like nobody on the West Coast has ever experienced / played in cold weather before...

Personally, I doubt temperature will be as big a factor. If anything, the "home" advantage will come from the support of the crowd and the ability to simply deafen the opposing offense.

When was the last time the Chargers played in temperatures below 20 degrees?

 

[TommyD4207]

When was the last time the Chargers played in temperatures below 20 degrees?

Zero times this year.

 

[Krugman]

Great post as usual from OSWLEK.....which I cant spell to save my life.....

 

[Oswlek]

So your reality is that your offense CAN'T be stopped? Same thing that was said about the "greatest show on turf" and the Colts offense and they were stopped by the Pats. And thats only recent memory. There's always ways to stop offenses, or at least slow them down. Click on the link that I provided a few posts back and you'll see my ideas. I'm not scared of Maroney, Moss, your TE's, or your OLine, it's Faulk out of the backfield and Welker on 3rd downs that is the biggest threat to us. Well, of course Brady.

No offense "can't" be stopped, but NE has a couple advantages over many of the prior historic offensive failures in the playoffs (Buffalo in 1990, StL in 2001, Indy in 2004). First, they are quite a bit more diverse than those offenses and are willing to do whatever it takes to win. StL and Indy had very specifc passing gameplans that relied solely on winning their matchups. Buffalo had the diversity but still *wanted* to pass the ball. NE isn't so tied to a formation or a style. They will do whatever it takes. There is a reason that not one team held NE to under 20 points on the season.

Now, there is one thing that is consistent among the three examples that I mentioned above. Can you see it? It is NE's other major advantage over those teams. Bill Belichick was prominantly involved in all three of those defensive efforts. Whether you want to hear it or not, NE has been planning all season for just about any type of defense just so that no one can spring anything on them. SD may surprise them initially, but you can be certain that NE will have a counter measure already in place for the next drive.

 

[Oswlek]

In the draft forum, Ochmed Jones makes a very insightful analysis of why the Pats Defense has actually become more vanilla as the year has gone on. His conclusion is that the injury to Colvin and the move of AD outside has hampered the defense' ability to use exotic schemes in the back 8, forcing BB to go vanilla. This gives the opposing Qb simple reads, makes him feel comfortable in the pocket, and allowed turds like Feeley, Boller and E. Manning to go on a rampage. The context of OJ's post was that the team desperately needs LB depth in the coming years. Dimitroff in his opening Atlanta remarks stated that his draft philosophy was more "needs based" than best player available, and we all know from whom he learned his trade.

The defensive inconsistencies, the confidence of these opposing Qbs as they survey the Pats D, gives me cause for concern. I haven't seen Qbs look so confident vs a Pats D since the middle of 2005.

The Moss debacle, the burgeoning confidence of a SD team that shed its "choker" tag and became a symbol of clutch, gutty play, the Pats' swiss cheese D, all these things weigh on my mind. But the Pats have Brady, and that should be enough to win.

I would counter that by saying that it is just as likely that NE realizes that their back of tricks was emptied a little bit, so they have been holding on to the few that remain for just this type of situation. I don't think it is coincidence that NE starts games in a simple style and then starts mixing it up in the second half.

 

[BelichickFan]

You post like nobody on the West Coast has ever experienced / played in cold weather before...

Personally, I doubt temperature will be as big a factor. If anything, the "home" advantage will come from the support of the crowd and the ability to simply deafen the opposing offense.

1) It's not going to be cold, it's going to be freezing. I've lived in CA (the desert where it gets a lot colder than SD) and I'm not used to anything below about 50. It may not win the game for the Patriots but it will assuredly bother the Chargers more.

2) I doubt we'll be deafening anyone. We should have a good crowd but it's not a deafening kind of crowd. The bigger HF is the turf (Chargers have played all but 3 games on grass from what I can tell) and the multiple road games the Chargers have had while the Patriots have been sitting at home. It's amazing, since the Baltimore game the only road trip we've had is the quick trip to NY.

 

[scout]

Perhaps because recently it is your offense mostly playing in the fourth quarter successfully scoring more points than your defense has already given up?

Your in denial. The Jag playoff game was a tight game with the Jags scoring one field goal in the 4th quarter. All of the games in which were decided by 10 points or less: the Giants scored one TD in the 4th, the Jet did not score in the 4th, the Ravens scored a TD (started at the 2 yard line to begin the 4th), Eagles did not score. Colts scored one TD (they started the 4th at NE's 36 and scored at the start of the 4th).
Thus, I stand by my proclamation that the Patriot's defense owns the 4th quarter. They are old and slow.

 

[Oswlek]

All is very true. The Colts should have blown us out. The refs gave the Colts no opportunities at all to regain any momentum they lost during the game. We didn't play over the top defense that keeps the defenders in front of us and stiffin up in the endzone. We don't belong on the same field as the Patriots. We are just lucky to be here. Our defense actually sucks, no matter how good they look. It's all a fraud by the NFL so the Pats could embarass the Chargers once again in the playoffs

Do you HONESTLY believe anything you say? We made it here because we belong here, not because we got lucky. We were giving Manning some room, then taking it away, then giving it back, then taking it away again, trying to generate a turnover. But I guess it's all luck. BTW, Cromartie was overtop of the receiver while the safety made a quick break on the ball to break it up, only to quickly bounce into Cro's hands.

Why so much Charger hating? Your "analysis" is full of holes and only providing Peyton Manning excuses but give no mention of the shotty calls that was only going against us. An analysis is supposed to be full of plus' and negatives. No mention of us leading the league in turnovers at all. No mention of the pass rush. No mention of the run stuffing defense. Just that Manning had 400 yards against us but we got lucky with the turnovers. Give me a break. I've been here since Saturday and this is probably the worst threads I've seen.

I know that you pulled back on this a little, but I'm going to respond to this one anyway.

1) I specifically said that I wasn't making excuses for Indy. Believe me, I saw as much as anyone else that SD got jobbed on numerous calls and I think that SD played the better game. My point was that Indy had oportunities, saw them, acted on them and then just screwed them up.

FTR, I said the exact same thing to Pitt fans in 2004 and Indy fans in 2006. Both times their teams had supposed good defensive games based on TOs and/or point allowed, but I saw flaws that NE could expose. You have to understand, NE isn't like Indy and TN, they don't "do what they do", they attack a weak spot. SD, IMHO hasn't been quite as good defensively in the playoffs as their points allowed and TOs would suggest. You can disagree, but that is my opinion.

2) I didn't mention SD's offensive positives because we all know what they are. You saw how long the post was anyway, should it really be longer? :blahblah:

FTR (again), LdT had probably the greatest RB season that I have personally witnessed last year. NE fans can call him what they will, but he is a fantastic running back. Gates is clearly the best TE in the game and scares the daylights out of me. SD's OL dominated NE's front 7 in the running game in last year's playoffs and they are playing a lot better than they were earlier this year. SD's pass rush is fierce and it is no fluke that they led the league in TOs.

This is why I said that SD's offense worries me. NE's defense hasn't proven to be able to stop anyone of late and is leaning heavily on NE's offense right now. Fortunately for them, the offense is more than up for the task.

3) With regard to SD's pass rush, while it is excellent, I see it as moderately predictible. From what I have seen, they basically just rush Merriman and Phillips on the outside all the time, with an occasional play where one of the two drops into coverage. This is why I think that NE has had, and will have success against them. Sure there are plenty of examples where NE's tackles break down and I expect SD to get a couple sacks, but I don't think that they will be the everpresent force that they often are. NE's OL is very good at pass pro this year and they have an exceptional blocking TE and RB to go along with it.

4) On the Wayne play, my analogy wasn't perfect and I realize that. I didn't mean to say that Cromartie *should* have been closer to the play, just that he was a nonfactor if the pass is complete. The catch was a great play, but the int was unforced. I didn't see the safety having much of an impact on the play either, but I could be wrong.

5) I fail to see when I said that SD doesn't belong on the same field as NE. They are a very good team. Clearly you did not read my points for/against analysis that showed that SD has outperformed NE down the stretch. The 24 points that I predict them to get is the third most anyone has gotten on NE all year and more than Jax - who has a very good O themselves - got this past week. I just am not sold that SD's defense has what it takes to slow NE's O down. SD has a solid defense with some exceptionally gifted talents. But you have to understand that NE's offense is one of it not the best that I have ever seen. There isn't a defense in the league that I see holding NE under 30 more times than not.

6) You may notice that I didn't list Rivers in the SD Plusses part earlier. I am not sold on him yet. I can see why you would be. He led the Chargers to the best record in the league in his first year starting and to the AFCCG in his second. I get it. But I just think he can be had. I will point out one play that I think typifies him.

In this past week's Indy game, just prior to Indy getting the ball and scoring their final points, SD had a 3rd and 6 deep in their own territory. Rivers was flushed out of the pocket and was rolling to his right. Despite not one defender being within 10 yards in front of him, he inexplicably tip toes to the LOS and let loose a terrible pass that was way behind the intended receiver. Had he just tucked and run right away, there was no way he doesn't get the FD and SD is rolling.

I just see Rivers as a hypercompetitive guy who tries too hard to be a hero. That is a play that most of the better QBs make - you can be certain Brady just keeps the chains moving there - that could have cost them the game.

Obviously he made a bunch of other fantastic throws. If NE gives him the time that Indy gave then I expect him to make his share of plays against them. But everything I have seen indicates to me that he will make a mistake. NE isn't quite a forgiving of those as Indy was.

Look, I legitimately am worried about this game. If NE plays a game like they did against the Giants or the Jets, they will likely lose. SD is a very good team and deserves to be here. But there is a reason that NE is 17-0 and this is Brady's 5th AFCCG appearance in 7 seasons. They know how to get it done.

 

[Oswlek]

Bumping probably for the last time.

 

[NEPat]

Bumping probably for the last time.

I think we need to start factoring the wind into all this. From everything I've seen, it looks like we're going to get gusty wind (see: weather thread).

 

[Oswlek]

I think we need to start factoring the wind into all this. From everything I've seen, it looks like we're going to get gusty wind (see: weather thread).

I already did in the original post.

* Many people have brought up the issue of the weather and how it affected the Baltimore game. I would like to point out a couple things:

1) The wind was much gustier against Baltimore than it projects to be this weekend.
2) Despite that and Baltimore's defensive tactics, NE was two dropped TDs - neither having anything to do with the defense - away from slapping down 35 points. On the road. In their 3rd straight night game.
3) Watson's drop was the worst because it was both the most eggregious and because it gave Baltimore some life after NE drove right down the field on their opening possession.

Against Philly, NE again did themselves in with a handful of drops with, amazingly enough, three of them coming on perfectly set up screens. Two of these happened on the same drive!

Again, just like the Indy/SD paragraph, if NE makes several unforced errors then SD will most certainly capitalize. The past has shown that they aren't above having a few drops, but make no mistake. It wasn't the weather that stopped NE from putting up 30+ against Baltimore.

 

[NEPat]

* Many people have brought up the issue of the weather and how it affected the Baltimore game. I would like to point out a couple things:

1) The wind was much gustier against Baltimore than it projects to be this weekend.
2) Despite that and Baltimore's defensive tactics, NE was two dropped TDs - neither having anything to do with the defense - away from slapping down 35 points. On the road. In their 3rd straight night game.
3) Watson's drop was the worst because it was both the most eggregious and because it gave Baltimore some life after NE drove right down the field on their opening possession.

Against Philly, NE again did themselves in with a handful of drops with, amazingly enough, three of them coming on perfectly set up screens. Two of these happened on the same drive!

Again, just like the Indy/SD paragraph, if NE makes several unforced errors then SD will most certainly capitalize. The past has shown that they aren't above having a few drops, but make no mistake. It wasn't the weather that stopped NE from putting up 30+ against Baltimore.

Thanks, sorry I missed this originally. I think though that this weekend's game could be the worst weather game the Pats have played in all year. I don't remember exactly how gusty it was in the Baltimore game, but it sounds like it's going to be bad this weekend.

And since SD is better than Baltimore, then I think the weather could play more of a factor. Not that it would only affect the Pats of course, if Rivers plays of course the flight of his ball is going to cause him more problems than Brady, but it's still a concern.