My Thoughts on the NE/SD AFCCG Matchup

[MiChargers]

I know that you pulled back on this a little, but I'm going to respond to this one anyway.

1) I specifically said that I wasn't making excuses for Indy. Believe me, I saw as much as anyone else that SD got jobbed on numerous calls and I think that SD played the better game. My point was that Indy had oportunities, saw them, acted on them and then just screwed them up.

FTR, I said the exact same thing to Pitt fans in 2004 and Indy fans in 2006. Both times their teams had supposed good defensive games based on TOs and/or point allowed, but I saw flaws that NE could expose. You have to understand, NE isn't like Indy and TN, they don't "do what they do", they attack a weak spot. SD, IMHO hasn't been quite as good defensively in the playoffs as their points allowed and TOs would suggest. You can disagree, but that is my opinion.

2) I didn't mention SD's offensive positives because we all know what they are. You saw how long the post was anyway, should it really be longer? :blahblah:

FTR (again), LdT had probably the greatest RB season that I have personally witnessed last year. NE fans can call him what they will, but he is a fantastic running back. Gates is clearly the best TE in the game and scares the daylights out of me. SD's OL dominated NE's front 7 in the running game in last year's playoffs and they are playing a lot better than they were earlier this year. SD's pass rush is fierce and it is no fluke that they led the league in TOs.

This is why I said that SD's offense worries me. NE's defense hasn't proven to be able to stop anyone of late and is leaning heavily on NE's offense right now. Fortunately for them, the offense is more than up for the task.

3) With regard to SD's pass rush, while it is excellent, I see it as moderately predictible. From what I have seen, they basically just rush Merriman and Phillips on the outside all the time, with an occasional play where one of the two drops into coverage. This is why I think that NE has had, and will have success against them. Sure there are plenty of examples where NE's tackles break down and I expect SD to get a couple sacks, but I don't think that they will be the everpresent force that they often are. NE's OL is very good at pass pro this year and they have an exceptional blocking TE and RB to go along with it.

4) On the Wayne play, my analogy wasn't perfect and I realize that. I didn't mean to say that Cromartie *should* have been closer to the play, just that he was a nonfactor if the pass is complete. The catch was a great play, but the int was unforced. I didn't see the safety having much of an impact on the play either, but I could be wrong.

5) I fail to see when I said that SD doesn't belong on the same field as NE. They are a very good team. Clearly you did not read my points for/against analysis that showed that SD has outperformed NE down the stretch. The 24 points that I predict them to get is the third most anyone has gotten on NE all year and more than Jax - who has a very good O themselves - got this past week. I just am not sold that SD's defense has what it takes to slow NE's O down. SD has a solid defense with some exceptionally gifted talents. But you have to understand that NE's offense is one of it not the best that I have ever seen. There isn't a defense in the league that I see holding NE under 30 more times than not.

6) You may notice that I didn't list Rivers in the SD Plusses part earlier. I am not sold on him yet. I can see why you would be. He led the Chargers to the best record in the league in his first year starting and to the AFCCG in his second. I get it. But I just think he can be had. I will point out one play that I think typifies him.

In this past week's Indy game, just prior to Indy getting the ball and scoring their final points, SD had a 3rd and 6 deep in their own territory. Rivers was flushed out of the pocket and was rolling to his right. Despite not one defender being within 10 yards in front of him, he inexplicably tip toes to the LOS and let loose a terrible pass that was way behind the intended receiver. Had he just tucked and run right away, there was no way he doesn't get the FD and SD is rolling.

I just see Rivers as a hypercompetitive guy who tries too hard to be a hero. That is a play that most of the better QBs make - you can be certain Brady just keeps the chains moving there - that could have cost them the game.

Obviously he made a bunch of other fantastic throws. If NE gives him the time that Indy gave then I expect him to make his share of plays against them. But everything I have seen indicates to me that he will make a mistake. NE isn't quite a forgiving of those as Indy was.

Look, I legitimately am worried about this game. If NE plays a game like they did against the Giants or the Jets, they will likely lose. SD is a very good team and deserves to be here. But there is a reason that NE is 17-0 and this is Brady's 5th AFCCG appearance in 7 seasons. They know how to get it done.

Oswlek, you did a pretty good job of analysis and it's refreshing to see someone actually posting about X's and O's rather than players running their mouths, disrespect, or crybaby this and that. I may not agree with every one of your points, but at least you try to talk about what really matters. Keep it up. :eat3: Here's to a good game!

 

[BelichickFan]

Thanks, sorry I missed this originally. I think though that this weekend's game could be the worst weather game the Pats have played in all year. I don't remember exactly how gusty it was in the Baltimore game, but it sounds like it's going to be bad this weekend.

I don't know about the gusts but it's generally looking like about 20 MPH. This should be partially offset by (and I'm repeating what fans have said here, I don't know this for sure) the fact that it's forecast from the West (I do know that part) and Gillette's open end is to the N or S to N/S winds generally are more of an issue than E/W (that's the part I've read).

As much as any "change" makes me nervous, though, I doubt the wind would hurt us. Brady is more used to it than Rivers and he certainly has a stronger arm to throw threw the wind. However if you look at the wind direction :

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/nfl/gameforecast/02035?eventid=239439

it's at about -45 degrees to a wind up and down the field so it'll be as much about being accurate with the wind carrying the ball side to side as it will being a tail or head wind. With Gates out or limited, other than Tomlinson the Chargers' receiving threats are more of the downfield variety than Welker and Watson. Chambers and Jackson combine for 36 catches from 10 yards (thrown not gain)and behind and have 28 catches from 11-20 yards whereas Welker and Watson have 127 of 10 yards of less but only 17 from 11-20.

Note that for those ranges (11-20 and <10), the two SD WR have 44% of their catches in the 11-20 range whereas Welker and Watson have 12%. Even Moss has a 2/1 ratio comparing these ranges and Stallworth has a 4/1. Gaffney, also, has 28 at less than 10 and 3 from 11-20. FWIW, on the season Gates has about a 2/1 ratio also.

I didn't add in over 20 as all of them have a fairly small number (Moss, for example, has 13 catches that were thrown > 20 yards downfield).

Bottom line, not only should Brady fare better in the wind but we throw a LOT more short passes than SD who's more in the medium range that will be more affected by the wind.

 

[Oswlek]

Thanks, sorry I missed this originally. I think though that this weekend's game could be the worst weather game the Pats have played in all year. I don't remember exactly how gusty it was in the Baltimore game, but it sounds like it's going to be bad this weekend.

And since SD is better than Baltimore, then I think the weather could play more of a factor. Not that it would only affect the Pats of course, if Rivers plays of course the flight of his ball is going to cause him more problems than Brady, but it's still a concern.

They project winds to be in the area of 20 mph. In Baltimore, the wind gusts were from 40-50 mph and against the Jets not only was the wind a factor, but it was raining too.

Despite this being a negative for NE's passing offense, NE does have the advantage here, IMHO, because they have been playing in bad weather and cold since mid November.

 

[bolts_fan]

Why?
Why would a team that has played exactly ZERO cold weather games this year, in your mind, would have their odds IMPROVED in Single-Digit Wind Chill weather? You think the Chargers will magically be able to throw into a stiff wind better than the Patriots, who have a Quarterback who's done it 25 times in his career?

The guy said WORSE WEATHER... that's entirely different from just cold. The worse the weather gets I also think the better the chance that San Diego will have. In very bad weather both QB's would be neutralized and I think SD definitely have the advantage in RB's with LT, Turner, Sproles. Doesn't mean that the increased chance will result in a Chargers win by any means, but it does improve the odds.

 

[Oswlek]

The guy said WORSE WEATHER... that's entirely different from just cold. The worse the weather gets I also think the better the chance that San Diego will have. In very bad weather both QB's would be neutralized and I think SD definitely have the advantage in RB's with LT, Turner, Sproles. Doesn't mean that the increased chance will result in a Chargers win by any means, but it does improve the odds.

Unless the weather negates passing entirely, I don't agree with this. Other than Baltimore, every single team that kept up with NE until late in the game did so due to their passing game. SD needs their passing game just as much as NE needs theirs, it is just that NE's is better.

 

[bolts_fan]

Look, I legitimately am worried about this game. If NE plays a game like they did against the Giants or the Jets, they will likely lose. SD is a very good team and deserves to be here.

Oswlek, I appreciate your analysis. To me it was accurate and fair, unlike a lot of bull I see around here.

But with this line you're just blowing smoke up my ass. The Patriots will win this game. I'm not delusional... we're completely banged up and while the talent is there, they don't have the experience (yet). This team can go places... they just need a little more experience which the Pats have plenty of.

 

[Oswlek]

Oswlek, I appreciate your analysis. To me it was accurate and fair, unlike a lot of bull I see around here.

But with this line you're just blowing smoke up my ass. The Patriots will win this game. I'm not delusional... we're completely banged up and while the talent is there, they don't have the experience (yet). This team can go places... they just need a little more experience which the Pats have plenty of.

I am very confident that NE will win. But SD is an excellent team. It should probably be said that I am completely disregarding all the injuries with the exception of Rivers because he already had a hurt knee.

If Gates is the same guy he was all year, NE will have serious problems with him. SD's OL has improved over the course of the year and I expect them to take advantage of a still-not-at-peak-level Seymour and a still-adjusting-to-being-outside AD.

 

[captain stone]

Despite some impressive numbers over their final 6 regular season games (even according to the points for/against) I haven't been all that impressed with their defense in the playoffs...Even if SD's defense comes out with a few packages that NE wasn't expecting, Cotrell will keep running them long after NE has adjusted and he will not readjust until it is too late. NE's weapons are as plentiful as Indy's, but NE has the edge because they have more diversity of strengths, allowing them to tailor just about any type of offense needed.

For all the reasons stated above, I too am not overly concerned about SD's defense. My main point of worry, and this is true for almost every game, is that one of their roid-raged imbeciles is given a free and clear shot at the QB. SD's DBs have improved, so accuracy is even more important this Sunday than last Saturday. As long as TB doesn't force passes to Moss, then we should average 10 points every 2 drives.

* I am worried about SD's offense. Regardless of whether NE has been playing extremely simplistic schemes, I don't see NE holding SD under 17 points, and frankly I can see them going over 20.

The only concern I have with SD's offense is the possibility of The Big Play, either from one of the RBs, or from one of the tall WRs. Taking the health of the TE, RB and QB into account, I am more impressed with Jacksonville's offense than with SD's. And I would take Garrard over a healthy Rivers all day.

* Many people have brought up the issue of the weather and how it affected the Baltimore game. I would like to point out a couple things:

1) The wind was much gustier against Baltimore than it projects to be this weekend.
2) Despite that and Baltimore's defensive tactics, NE was two dropped TDs - neither having anything to do with the defense - away from slapping down 35 points. On the road. In their 3rd straight night game.
3) Watson's drop was the worst because it was both the most eggregious and because it gave Baltimore some life after NE drove right down the field on their opening possession.

I remember Watson's drop, in the endzone, on the first drive of the game.
What was the other drop?

Against Philly, NE again did themselves in with a handful of drops with, amazingly enough, three of them coming on perfectly set up screens. Two of these happened on the same drive!

And don't forget the TD taken away from Moss, due to a bogus OPI call.

For some reason the number 35-24 keeps jumping out at me. I don't particularly like it because I can't see NE scoring a TD every time they score, but I'm going to run with it anyway.

Right now, I'm leaning toward 28-20.

 

[pwes]

The other drop was by Welker

 

[captain stone]

The other drop was by Welker

Do you remember when/where it happened? I could then look at the Gamebook for the rest of the details.

 

[Oswlek]

I remember Watson's drop, in the endzone, on the first drive of the game.
What was the other drop?

Moss had either a post or a slant (I can't recall how deep the route was) where he comfortably seperated on the inside from the defender. The ball was a little high and tight, but he got both hands on it at about head level and let it slip through.

Not an easy catch, but a hell of a lot easier than at least 10-15 others that he has made this year.

 

[Oswlek]

The other drop was by Welker

Welker dropped a drag route, but that wasn't the one I was referring to as it was near midfield.

 

[pwes]

Got you I read it wrong.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

I feel like the bitter cold wind chills will be a bigger factor than the wind itself. If the temp was going to be around 10 degrees with little wind, most cranked-up, game-focused players can deal with a gradual build up of cold while they are on the field becuase they are mvoing around and pumping out the heat.

However, a strong steady wind with temps in the low teens and the sun off the field means that players will get colder much faster, especially if they are sweating ( I'm going to assume that even a warm weather team like SD knows to wear wicking layers next to their skin). Player's extremities will numb up very quickly, making ball protection difficult. One would have to believe the Pats have a decided advantage over the Bolts in this problem considering most of them have been exposed to more cold, not just this year, but for years on end for many of them.

Tackling and pass protection (the legal grabbing of the jersey) also suffer when the fingers and feet go.

The football really stings on hard passes when it's really cold - Vincent Jackson and Chambers are pure warm weather dudes, like it or not, they ain't gonna be happy the first time a fast ball feels like it nearly breaks their fingers.

Extremely cold weather also makes it difficult for players with injuries to stay "loose." I'd expect Gates to play very little (depending how effective a pain killer they give him), and LT and Rivers to really struggle as the the game moves along.

Rivers and Volek will at times be just stunned how hard the ball feels in their hands, Brady will not.

The Pat's D understands very well how much it hurts to really hit in weather like this, SD has no idea and their D will either slowly adjust or get smoked because they succumb to the pain in their hands and feet, etc. Ever have your toe stepped on when it was already getting numb from cold?

I'm not saying the Bolts are wimps, but heated benches or not, wind whipped winter cold like this takes getting used to. they don't have much time to adapt.

For regular X's and O's -

The Pat's D has been adjusting very well as the game goes along - nothing but FG's against the Giants and Jax after the mid-3rd quarters. SD can't out score the pats - no team has yet this year and a team missing (or having in a limited state) the best TE in football, the best RB in football, and a QB with a solid winning % is hardly the candidate to be the first.

Mix together the weather issues, SD injuries, a struggling kicker (before he even got in cold and windy weather), the Pat's fine adjustments and the best QB in football who has excelled in cold and windy conditions, the prospects for SD are grim. Only a couple of anamalous plays (INT/fumble returned for a TD, kick return for a TD) will give them a real chance.

Pats 27
SD 13

 

[captain stone]

Moss had either a post or a slant (I can't recall how deep the route was) where he comfortably seperated on the inside from the defender. The ball was a little high and tight, but he got both hands on it at about head level and let it slip through.

Not an easy catch, but a hell of a lot easier than at least 10-15 others that he has made this year.

I remember that pass now. Yes, it wasn't an easy catch to make, but Moss had made tougher catches before that game. In fact, I think he had more than one drop in Baltimore, IIRC. From that point, I began to wonder if Moss still had the hands, concentration and toughness to perform Outdoors in the Northeast after Christmas. I believe that he does, and this game can go a very long way toward removing any and all doubt.

 

[Horace's Ivories]

Your odds are very bad, so you can't say you like them. But I understand what you're saying. The worse the weather looks, the better you feel your odds are.

I don't agree with you as most Patriots have played in bad winter weather many times. The odds of Brady performing well in bad weather are better than River's odds of playing well...doesn't that make sense?

Pus alot of River's longer throws look like dead ducks that could be negatively affected by wind.. worse than Brady's tight throws..