My SB Prediction

[Ring 6]

I think the story of this game is Tom Brady and his offense against a weak Atlanta D. I don't buy the Atlanta's D is improving and dangerous story, because I just don't see it. The comments about cutting out the last handful of games and then they only allow 20 ppg (which still isn't good) is phony because it includes half of the games being against SF,LA and a Panther team that had checked out. This is very different than a season long top ppg defense having played a less than titanic schedule, this is cherry picking the weak part of the schedule and celebrating being average against it.
It is a bad defense.
Look no further than the fact that, as we have all been told, their offense is a top 10 alltime scoring offense (lets not forget Tom Brady has 4 of the top 14, and none of those were the SB Champ years) but they still lost 5 games. That was more that one of every 3 regular season games that their defense couldn't play well enough to win with the 8th highest scoring offense in the league on their sideline. Think about that.
They lost to: Russell Wilson, Phillip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Alex Smith and Carson Wentz.
Now they get Tom Brady, and guess what? Brady has more and better weapons at his disposal than any of those teams had, and a better OL.
Atlantas D is 6th worse in points allowed, over 25 per game, 8th worse in yards allowed.
They are 5th worse in passing yards allowed, and in passing TDs.
They allowed the 4th most first downs, a whopping 22+ per game.
Their run D allows 4.5 ypc, 7th worst in the league.
Per drive they are 5th worst in points allowed, 6th worst in yards per drive, and 4th worst in plays per drive.

In the regular season, they allowed FORTY SIX OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS.
By contrast the Patriots allowed TWENTY SEVEN.

That is just about 3 TDs per game to everyone. (In fact if you don't count the 49ers and Rams, who each scored 2, it is exactly 3 per game)
What is Tom Brady going to do to a defense that allows 3 TDs per game to the average slew of offenses they face?
They also allowed 46 TDs vs 23 FGs, meaning they aren't holding you to FGs. (Patriots FYI 27 TD 21 FG)

The average game by a QB facing the Falcons this year:
26.4/40.9 64.4% 281 yards 1.9 TDs 0.75 Ints 2.1 sacks, 25 points.

Take a look at those numbers, then factor in that its the best QB they will face all year, with arguably the best supporting cast and OL they will have faced all year, and tell me what you expect?

When you look at all of the defensive numbers, this defense played about the same, maybe a little worse this year than the Jets.

I see 41 points, 5 TDs and 2 FGs.


On the other side of the ball, their offense is no doubt terrific. They have scored 58 offensive touchdowns, which is 3.6 per game. Of course they will be facing the stingiest defense in the NFL, on that allowed only 1.7 per game.
They have run and thrown well. #3 in passing yards, #5 in rushing yards. #1 in yards per pass, #5 in yards per rush.
Defensively, the Patriots are 12 in passing yards, 3 in rushing yards, 6th in yards per pass, 8th in yards per rush.
What you have here is a classic matchup of a top flight offense that does everything well vs a top flight defense that does everything well.
Offensively this will be the toughest challenge the Falcons have had all season.

I see 20 points 2 TDs, 2 FGs.

One thing that cannot be factored in is special teams plays, turnovers, and fluky plays because they do not happen consistently game to game even for teams who are very good or very bad in those areas, and that could have a big impact on the final result.

When all is said and done it comes down to this:

A great Patriot offense against a weak Falcon defense.
A great Falcon offense against a great Patriot defense.

NE 41 ATL 20

 

[primetime]

I tend to agree with this. I think, if the Patriots play well, it won't be close. I'd say there's about an equal chance of a Patriots blowout, a close Patriots win, and a close Falcons win. I think the key is getting an early lead and then getting Blount going. The Eagles beat them handily with Ryan Mathews and Wendell Smallwood averaging over 6 yards per carry each, and they didn't have the passing threat or offensive line that the Patriots do.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think the story of this game is Tom Brady and his offense against a weak Atlanta D. I don't buy the Atlanta's D is improving and dangerous story, because I just don't see it. The comments about cutting out the last handful of games and then they only allow 20 ppg (which still isn't good) is phony because it includes half of the games being against SF,LA and a Panther team that had checked out. This is very different than a season long top ppg defense having played a less than titanic schedule, this is cherry picking the weak part of the schedule and celebrating being average against it.
It is a bad defense.
Look no further than the fact that, as we have all been told, their offense is a top 10 alltime scoring offense (lets not forget Tom Brady has 4 of the top 14, and none of those were the SB Champ years) but they still lost 5 games. That was more that one of every 3 regular season games that their defense couldn't play well enough to win with the 8th highest scoring offense in the league on their sideline. Think about that.
They lost to: Russell Wilson, Phillip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Alex Smith and Carson Wentz.
Now they get Tom Brady, and guess what? Brady has more and better weapons at his disposal than any of those teams had, and a better OL.
Atlantas D is 6th worse in points allowed, over 25 per game, 8th worse in yards allowed.
They are 5th worse in passing yards allowed, and in passing TDs.
They allowed the 4th most first downs, a whopping 22+ per game.
Their run D allows 4.5 ypc, 7th worst in the league.
Per drive they are 5th worst in points allowed, 6th worst in yards per drive, and 4th worst in plays per drive.

In the regular season, they allowed FORTY SIX OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS.
By contrast the Patriots allowed TWENTY SEVEN.

That is just about 3 TDs per game to everyone. (In fact if you don't count the 49ers and Rams, who each scored 2, it is exactly 3 per game)
What is Tom Brady going to do to a defense that allows 3 TDs per game to the average slew of offenses they face?
They also allowed 46 TDs vs 23 FGs, meaning they aren't holding you to FGs. (Patriots FYI 27 TD 21 FG)

The average game by a QB facing the Falcons this year:
26.4/40.9 64.4% 281 yards 1.9 TDs 0.75 Ints 2.1 sacks, 25 points.

Take a look at those numbers, then factor in that its the best QB they will face all year, with arguably the best supporting cast and OL they will have faced all year, and tell me what you expect?

When you look at all of the defensive numbers, this defense played about the same, maybe a little worse this year than the Jets.

I see 41 points, 5 TDs and 2 FGs.


On the other side of the ball, their offense is no doubt terrific. They have scored 58 offensive touchdowns, which is 3.6 per game. Of course they will be facing the stingiest defense in the NFL, on that allowed only 1.7 per game.
They have run and thrown well. #3 in passing yards, #5 in rushing yards. #1 in yards per pass, #5 in yards per rush.
Defensively, the Patriots are 12 in passing yards, 3 in rushing yards, 6th in yards per pass, 8th in yards per rush.
What you have here is a classic matchup of a top flight offense that does everything well vs a top flight defense that does everything well.
Offensively this will be the toughest challenge the Falcons have had all season.

I see 20 points 2 TDs, 2 FGs.

One thing that cannot be factored in is special teams plays, turnovers, and fluky plays because they do not happen consistently game to game even for teams who are very good or very bad in those areas, and that could have a big impact on the final result.

When all is said and done it comes down to this:

A great Patriot offense against a weak Falcon defense.
A great Falcon offense against a great Patriot defense.

NE 41 ATL 20

Yep. I'm seeing 5TDs and a FG by NEP O and 2TDs and 3 FGs by ATL.

38-23 NEP.

Blount SB MVP. 24 carries 150yds 3TDs

 

[FCB02062]

I don't have the #s, but Atlanta homers and Felger and Mazz will say Atlanta gave up MOST of they're touchdowns when they were already up 14 or 21 in the 4th quarter...so their defense really isn't "that bad"...

I've said all along, if the Pats play their A game (Pittsburgh was pretty close to an A game), no one in the NFL can beat them. But, if they happen to turn it over, **** up on third downs, get caught in a lot of third and longs, miss tackles, etc....Sunday could be a rough day for Pats fans...or if they happen to underestimate Atlanta like the did the NYG in 2007....

 

[Ring 6]

Yep. I'm seeing 5TDs and a FG by NEP O and 2TDs and 3 FGs by ATL.

38-23 NEP.

Blount SB MVP. 24 carries 150yds 3TDs

Brady MVP with something like 27-35-340-4

 

[qbno12]

Good information there. Although it's tempting to think Pats will win by a huge margin I'd say we haven't won comfortably ever in superbowl no matter how good our offense was in the regular season. I hate the fact that Pats start slow after a bye week be it regular season or post season. I hope ATL doesn't build up an early lead and we play from behind.

 

[Uptown]

Brady MVP with something like 27-35-340-4

Please!

 

[qbno12]

I don't have the #s, but Atlanta homers and Felger and Mazz will say Atlanta gave up MOST of they're touchdowns when they were already up 14 or 21 in the 4th quarter...so their defense really isn't "that bad"...

They may be true in that ATL defense gave away a lot of garbage time points. If we took that into consideration Pats defensive PPG allowed would be even less.

 

[Ring 6]

Good information there. Although it's tempting to think Pats will win by a huge margin I'd say we haven't won comfortably ever in superbowl no matter how good our offense was in the regular season. I hate the fact that Pats start slow after a bye week be it regular season or post season. I hope ATL doesn't build up an early lead and we play from behind.

This is my thinking. In SBs, and other times in big games we have played very conservatively on offense. We have tried to 'stay on schedule' and work for 3rd and short. Our offense is never at its best doing that.
This post season, and to a lesser extent in 2014, (have to throw out 2015 because we were gameplanning around a wounded OL) we have run the offense the way it runs best. On second and 8 we aren't trying to get 4 or 5 to make 3rd down easy, we are throwing crossing patterns and seam patterns down the field and gaining 20+ yards. That is when our O is best, and I don't think anyone stops it, certainly not these guys. Watch for the 'chunk plays' early vs taking the checkdown, and you will know its going to be our day.

Against a team with a crappy D and a good O, I can't see us reverting back to the conservative stay on schedule offense, and I think Brady is going to light up NRG.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't have the #s, but Atlanta homers and Felger and Mazz will say Atlanta gave up MOST of they're touchdowns when they were already up 14 or 21 in the 4th quarter...so their defense really isn't "that bad"...

I've said all along, if the Pats play their A game (Pittsburgh was pretty close to an A game), no one in the NFL can beat them. But, if they happen to turn it over, **** up on third downs, get caught in a lot of third and longs, miss tackles, etc....Sunday could be a rough day for Pats fans...or if they happen to underestimate Atlanta like the did the NYG in 2007....

Its that bad.
Every single defensive statistic stinks. Every one. Find a single defensive stat that is good?
That is not a team that could stop you whenever they want, but give up garbage time points.
THEY LOST MORE THAN A THIRD OF THEIR REGULAR SEASON GAMES. That is not, we stop everyone until we stop trying.

 

[qbno12]

This is my thinking. In SBs, and other times in big games we have played very conservatively on offense. We have tried to 'stay on schedule' and work for 3rd and short. Our offense is never at its best doing that.
This post season, and to a lesser extent in 2014, (have to throw out 2015 because we were gameplanning around a wounded OL) we have run the offense the way it runs best. On second and 8 we aren't trying to get 4 or 5 to make 3rd down easy, we are throwing crossing patterns and seam patterns down the field and gaining 20+ yards. That is when our O is best, and I don't think anyone stops it, certainly not these guys. Watch for the 'chunk plays' early vs taking the checkdown, and you will know its going to be our day.

Against a team with a crappy D and a good O, I can't see us reverting back to the conservative stay on schedule offense, and I think Brady is going to light up NRG.

I agree. It was unusual to see our offense making big plays in playoffs be it run game or passing (Brady to Hogan, Edelman etc.). It's not something we have do in the past. If we can do it early and often and get into a rythm, I'll feel much better about the outcome of the game.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Brady MVP with something like 27-35-340-4

Would not surprise me in the least.

Tom is poised to have a SB 24 Montana/Broncos type-game.

Hes wont be denied. You can just tell.

 

[jimnance]

Besides the stats comparison, the NFL is all about matchups and execution.

I took off my homer glasses and studied every possible matchup for both teams both sides of ball( didn't look at sts but pats have a decisive edge).

The Patriots have an overwhelming advantage in matchups. Its very similar to matching up NE/Pitts. I knew that game would be a blowout and so should this. Brady and co. will destroy falcs weak defense. The only question is similar to Pitts- how will Pats D handle falcs screen game ? Bell is a far superior back to both atl rbs in every way- running or catching. Pats will shut them down running- question is how well they limit the screen game. We know yac becomes huge with this area- Pats are #1 D in NFL at limiting yac.

I looked at every possible angle- I really don't think this game will be close.

Steelers/Falcs strength is big plays. Both suck on O in red zone.
Pars D #1 in NFL allowing fewest big plays
Pats D excellent in red zone.

So matchups heavily favor Pats. That leaves execution. Pats give up fewest turnovers in NFL. Do you really want to bet the farm on entire Pats team having multiple brain cramps? Theoretically possible, highly unlikely.

I see Pats scoring TDs, falcs kicking fgs.
Will be blowout, with falcs getting some garbage-time scores to make it appear closer but Pats control/dominate this game

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don't have the #s, but Atlanta homers and Felger and Mazz will say Atlanta gave up MOST of they're touchdowns when they were already up 14 or 21 in the 4th quarter...so their defense really isn't "that bad"...

I've said all along, if the Pats play their A game (Pittsburgh was pretty close to an A game), no one in the NFL can beat them. But, if they happen to turn it over, **** up on third downs, get caught in a lot of third and longs, miss tackles, etc....Sunday could be a rough day for Pats fans...or if they happen to underestimate Atlanta like the did the NYG in 2007....

Great defenses give up very few garbage points.

OK and bad defenses give up a bunch.

 

[Ross12]

I do wonder about the Special Teams factor. If I'm not mistaken, New England's Special Teams is worlds better than Atlanta's as well. If their starting D can't tackle worth a ****, I can't imagine their ST tackles too well. Jules may have a field day.

 

[ashley]

I'm wondering if this game we will see a lot of Blount. We might just ram it down Atlanta's throat and Blount might end up winning the MVP.

 

[farn]

I'm wondering if this game we will see a lot of Blount. We might just ram it down Atlanta's throat and Blount might end up winning the MVP.

I want to see all the RBs (real ones, not Bolden) factor in Sunday. ATL seems to have the consensus edge, but considering the stout run D in NE + the dynamic plays from Patriot RBs all year....

Add to that a smallish ATL D & you have the makings for 200 yards (air + ground) from NE RBs.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm wondering if this game we will see a lot of Blount. We might just ram it down Atlanta's throat and Blount might end up winning the MVP.

Blount is my SB MVP pick.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I do wonder about the Special Teams factor. If I'm not mistaken, New England's Special Teams is worlds better than Atlanta's as well. If their starting D can't tackle worth a ****, I can't imagine their ST tackles too well. Jules may have a field day.

I just hope they hang onto the goddamn football.

 

[Ross12]

I'm wondering if this game we will see a lot of Blount. We might just ram it down Atlanta's throat and Blount might end up winning the MVP.

Atlanta don't wanna hit that Blount!