1. I'm not seeing the prevailing sentiment that OL should be one of our bigger needs, especially OG. Given the light number of picks we have this year, I wouldn't be happy to see us use one of the top 3 picks on a offensive lineman. Even if Volmer walks, BB and Scar have invested a lot of time on McDonald and Zusevics. I would THINK that in their 3rd year in the system they would offer as much as we would suspect from any rookie.
I can't agree, Ken. First, I think that building a premium OL is ALWAYS worthwhile. While Scar has been masterful about creating a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts, there's no substitute for having true studs on the OL (and DL) who can win the war in the trenches. The Patriots have to some extent masked deficiencies in their OL through a quick passing game, but that puts more pressure on Brady, which may not be the way to go as he gets older. Guys like McDonald and Zusevics are quality reserves at reasonable cap hits, but I don't necessarily see them as immediate impact starts compared with a guy like Jonathan Cooper or DJ Fluker. Mankins was an impact starter as a rookie - remember how he did? Remember how Vollmer saved us in 2009 when our OL was falling apart? Similarly, Solder had an immediate impact at RT in 2011 when Vollmer's back sidelined him. Those kind of guys can have a huge impact, and early.
2. I HAVE a dream. And I can't seem to get it out of my head. So in order to make this dream come true I'm going to have to sacrifice a little on the offense and go with Heat's maxim of signing Edelman and let Welker walk and hope we can get 80% of his production at 20% of the cost. THEN we can afford to re-sign Volmer and I get to have my dream come true and see a Connolly, Cannon, Volmer Gronk right side, which will have DL's begging for mercy in the run game.
I have always been a HUGE Vollmer fan, and re-signing him has always been extremely high on my priority list. But right now I'm terrified of his back issue, combined with a big money contract. With so much money tied up in Mankins, giving Vollmer a big money deal only to have his back become a major issue would be a huge drain on the team's cap resources. I think that needs to be evaluated very, very carefully.
3. Position wise, those top 3 picks should be used exclusively on the DL, DB, ,and WR in no particular order.
I personally consider QB, DL and OL to be the 3 most important areas of the team, so I have no problem investing 2 of our 3 top 100 picks in those 2 areas. I think that WRs and DBs can be added later. There's no guarantee that a high draft pick DB won't have the minimal impact of a rookie Ras-I Dowling, or a low pick DB won't have the tremendous impact of an Alfonzo Dennard.
I also believe that we need continuity experience in our secondary more than additional rookies starting. I'm not in favor of using a top 100 pick on a DB, unless we get more picks.
4. I'm not mourning the lack of picks this year as much as some. Sure its nice to have a lot of picks going into the draft season. It certainly makes it a lot more fun for us to speculate draft trades and participate in player rich mock drafts. But the reality is that the Pats roster is maturing. And while there are certainly holes to fill, those are relatively few in nature compared to most teams.
Over the past 3 years the Pats have completed a massive roster turn over. Only 5 starters remain from the 2010 Jets loss. We already have what amounts to 10 new faces being added to the roster who had little or no impact this season. (Armstead, Dowling, Demps, Fletcher, Ballard, and the 5 draft picks, and that doesn't count several other IR returnees, and other "camp fodder" FA signees of whom history tells us, one or two will make the roster.
So even if we didn't sign a single outside FA, we'd still be looking a close to a 20% turnover if all those players made the team. Last season brought us 3 starters, 1 contributor, and a special teams starter, plus 2 "prospects". That's quite a haul. This year if we manage 3 contributors, and one ST's starter, I think that would be a great result
More draft picks allows a number of things: flexibility to move around, flexibility to pick up low cost players who could potentially upgrade the roster - not because of acute "need", but because it is always good to upgrade the roster - and an increased chance of hitting on 1 pick. Again, look at the impact Alfonzo Dennard had on our 2012 draft.
5. Its real early now, and we are picking late. Remember that the actual draft will bear little resemblance to what we speculate now. Especially this early. A lot of guys that people are hyping now will fall and guys we've never heard of or discussed will get drafted early. Don't forget that RGIII was a 3rd round WR prospect going into his last year at Baylor, and if anyone ever mention the name Tavon Wilson before it was called last April, they deserve some kind of a prize.
6. I look forward to all your posts. They make the off season infinitely more interesting
It's certainly early, and there will be a ton of movement between now and the end of April. That's to be expected. The Pats should be vigilent to find good values. Part of my concern with the lack of draft picks is that they won't have the flexibiltiy to move around and find those guys.
But if we come out of this draft with a significant contributor at DT, OL and WR plus a nickel/slot DB or 3rd outside press-man DB, I will be thrilled.