Monday Morning Draft Thoughts

[Brownfan80]

Don't forget Gay. Gay is actually better than Hobbs, although everyone on this board continually forgets it.

I haven't forgotten Gay. I think Gay is actually better than the 2006 version of Samuel, but I believe that right at the moment Hobbs has shown the most ability and by the start of 2006 will be our best corner.

 

[jimmyjames]

I really don't undersatnd the infatuation with Samuel. Sure he delivers some great hits, but overall, he is the CB that gets targeted and picked on the most. That is a pretty dubious distinction considering the CB corps over the last two seasons.

 

[Warren=underrated]

There is a pretty strong indication that they are truly picking the player still on the board whom they consider the most likely to make the team and contribute the most

Isn't this just another way to say that we do draft at least, in part, based on need? Afterall, won't the guys who play the positions that we are the weakest at have the best chance to make the team and contribute the most?

 

[Warren=underrated]

Yep... traded up for him too. D'oh!!!

Dang, I didn't remember us moving up for Bethel. Kinda screws up my point, doesn't it?

 

[Warren=underrated]

Barring injury, Samuel is your starting LCB. And I, for one, am prefectly comfortable with that.

Ditto.

I think it's funny that during the pre-draft talk about Marshall a huge deal was made about well he tackles, but the same gets overlooked when it comes to Samuel. He can cover too, and is a nice overall player for us.

 

[bucky]

I really don't undersatnd the infatuation with Samuel. Sure he delivers some great hits, but overall, he is the CB that gets targeted and picked on the most. That is a pretty dubious distinction considering the CB corps over the last two seasons.

He gets targeted because (a) he's always covering the opponent's best WR and (b) because the opposite CB spot is a revolving door. They throw to the other side plenty of times, it's just not the same guy. Samuel did have a bunch of poor games at the beginning of last season, but he was a real solid #1 CB at the end of the year and in the playoffs, just as he was all of 2004.

 

[jimmyjames]

He gets targeted because (a) he's always covering the opponent's best WR and (b) because the opposite CB spot is a revolving door. They throw to the other side plenty of times, it's just not the same guy. Samuel did have a bunch of poor games at the beginning of last season, but he was a real solid #1 CB at the end of the year and in the playoffs, just as he was all of 2004.

He was not the number 1 at the end of last year Hobbs was. Samuel was not consistenly asked to cover oppnents' number 1 WR either. Samuel's play actually seemed worse as the season progressed and teams began to shy away from Hobbs (who got picked on early when he became a starter) and threw more balls towrds Samuel.

 

[ClevTrev]

A collection of random thoughts on the draft:

#1: One of the best things about this draft, IMO, is that we didn't take a center. That implies the rumors about Koppen being done are BS, which makes me very happy. Ditto us not drafting a SS early, which implies RH's rehab is coming along as well.....maybe he won't start the season on the PUP list afterall.

#3: Mills was a great pick. He was the highest ranked guy at his position, is extremely versatile, and should be a big upgrade over Pass.

#4: At first I was confused as to why we would take a TE on day #1, but after a little more thought, I like the pick. Whoever we drafted at TE was basically guaranteed to make the team, so it seems reasonable to not be stuck with a 7th round bust or UDFA. In fact, considering that he's filling a currently empty spot, I guess you could say this pick represents our largest upgrade of the draft. The pick also suggests more double TE sets, which, IMO, is a very good thing.

#6: The O'Callaghan (sic?) pick was another good one IMO. If it weren't for all the injuries (the guy has hurt his hand and had several shoulder surgeries in the recent past) he would have been a much higher pick. In the middle rounds I think you can afford to risk a single pick on a highly talented, but injury prone guy. It'll also be nice to make Kazcur actually compete for the starting job at RT job.

Warren, good comments. I have some additional thoughts on a few of your random thoughts:

#1: I absolutely believe the Pats were taking players off their board based on "best available" at the time of their picks. BB stated this in his press conference last night. Therefore, I don't believe that the absence of a center or any other position in their selections is any indication of the health status of any current player. Remember, they still have a lot of cap room and can now troll for the next wave of FAs. What they do in the next few weeks will be more telling.

#3: Agree with you about Mills. I think he's a football player who will see a lot of action on STs and various offensive sets. However, I don't necessarily think they've targeted a replacement for Pass with Mills. Mills will likely play the traditional H-back position or what BB refers to as an F-back. Most likely that formation will appear on short yardage and 3rd down plays where blocking and a dump off receiver can provide more options to keep the defense off balance. I like Mills a lot, and he has the potential to be used in many ways.

#4: Drafting a TE was one of the more significant decisions on draft day and is the pick I think most resembles a need. You're right that Thomas is filling an empty slot (Fauria), but this has even more implications beyond just making sure TEs are available in emergencies or as replacements. This move along with the Mills pick frees up Watson to move around in certain circumstances as a TE/WR. What a beast as a WR, eh? It gives the team extreme flexibility, and I like the idea of Watson being able to line up wide inside the red zone and be a receiver going on a flag route. Brady will like it too! This is the pick that surprised me the least and made me happy with the possibilities.

#6: I like the O'Callaghan pick as well. He's dominant on the OL and would have gone much higher had he not had the injury history. This is most likely a calculated choice as BB/SP don't tend to do anything without preparing first. Bet they've checked him out and have a plan for him. If he remains injury free, this guy can be a dominant lineman for the Pats for years to come. Great move! However, I believe you'll see him playing alongside Kaczur at some point rather than competing with him. One will play RG, one will play RT. Nice combination! Kaczur will have his breakout season as a sophomore. The kid is too good to spend much time on the bench.

 

[ClevTrev]

One could only assume that they really thought he could be a very very good chance to be a top NFL kicker and wanted to make sure they got him.

arrellbee - Agree fully on this one. BB must have confidence in Gostkowski to spend a 4th on him. He has decent size, is a good athlete, has a strong leg, and has had great success kicking in college. Grammatica must be feeling the pressure, as it appears BB has his doubts and is definitely hedging his bets with this kid. If this kid can match Grammatica in TC, my bet is that he'll win the job over the vet. They're not going to spend a 4th for nothing. Should be interesting . . .

 

[Patjew]

Take it to the BANK, BelichickFan! Barring injury, Samuel is your starting LCB. And I, for one, am prefectly comfortable with that.

I think you're out there on your own with this one, my friend. I'll be surprised and mildly disappointed if Asante (who I do like) even starts next year. But he'll be a great nickel.

 

[ClevTrev]

I think you're out there on your own with this one, my friend. I'll be surprised and mildly disappointed if Asante (who I do like) even starts next year. But he'll be a great nickel.

He is a good nickel. Sentiments shared on this one.

 

[bucky]

He was not the number 1 at the end of last year Hobbs was. Samuel was not consistenly asked to cover oppnents' number 1 WR either. Samuel's play actually seemed worse as the season progressed and teams began to shy away from Hobbs (who got picked on early when he became a starter) and threw more balls towrds Samuel.

I have no idea what you're talking about. And I'm afraid you don't either. Samuel was the #1 CB for every single one of the Pats played last year, except the last Miami game when he got the day off. That's pretty much not even debatable.

 

[AzPatsFan]

RCB, RS, LS and LCB are the positions...

The Pats don't really have a first and second CB.

They have a LCB and a RCB, and they don't flip flop. Each draws the guy lined up against him irrespective of whether that receiver is a #1 or #2 WR.

They don't have a SS or FS per se. They have a Right and Left safety. It just turns out that the LS is usually lined up on the Offenses strong side (where the TE lines up), and most teams run right. So Harrison was usually playing the run since he was a LS.

 

[jimmyjames]

Going back over the game stats of the Pats last 6 or so games and looking at who was making plays on who. Here is who Hobbs' primary assignment was against:
KC - Eddie kennison
TB - Samuel and Hobbs switched off b/t Galloway and Hilliard in first half, by second half it was mostly Hobbs on Galloway
Jets - L. Coles
in the Playoffs Hobbs had Jimmy Smith vs. Jax and then for Denver had
Rod Smith most of the day and Samuel had Lelie

Seems to me like Hobbs was drawing the primary WR to me.

FWIW both are listed as starting corners on the last iteration of the 2005 depth chart and my initial point was that going into camp this year I expect Hobbs to have a starting job, while I am not sure that Samuel will retain his.

 

[bucky]

The Pats don't really have a first and second CB.

They have a LCB and a RCB, and they don't flip flop. Each draws the guy lined up against him irrespective of whether that receiver is a #1 or #2 WR.

They don't have a SS or FS per se. They have a Right and Left safety. It just turns out that the LS is usually lined up on the Offenses strong side (where the TE lines up), and most teams run right. So Harrison was usually playing the run since he was a LS.

That's true most of the time (On occasion, especially in the playoffs, the Pats' game plan calls for 1-1 matchups between WRs and CBs based on matchups.)

Still, for most teams, including the Pats, the LCB = #1 CB -probably because almost all QBs are right-handed. Ty Law played LCB his entire career here. And Samuel has been the LCB since Law got injured in the beginning of 2004.

 

[bucky]

Going back over the game stats of the Pats last 6 or so games and looking at who was making plays on who. Here is who Hobbs' primary assignment was against:
KC - Eddie kennison
TB - Samuel and Hobbs switched off b/t Galloway and Hilliard in first half, by second half it was mostly Hobbs on Galloway
Jets - L. Coles
in the Playoffs Hobbs had Jimmy Smith vs. Jax and then for Denver had
Rod Smith most of the day and Samuel had Lelie

Seems to me like Hobbs was drawing the primary WR to me.

FWIW both are listed as starting corners on the last iteration of the 2005 depth chart

jimmyjames, I don't want to get into a deep argument with you. AzPatsFan brings up correctly that most of the time, the Pats' CBs stay on their own side. I don't remember the specific game plans for all those games, but I do remember that in the Denver game, it was Samuel vs Lelie and Hobbs vs. Smith. But in the reg-season Denver game, it was Starks playing Smith all day long. Obviously, this was a matchup-based decision (due to Lelie's speed and the need to bring a safety in the box vs. Denver's run) and Hobbs was getting some safety help over the top. When I say that Samuel was the #1 CB, I'm talking about him playing the LCB position. Almost all the teams have their best CB playing LCB.

 

[jimmyjames]

jimmyjames, I don't want to get into a deep argument with you. AzPatsFan brings up correctly that most of the time, the Pats' CBs stay on their own side. I don't remember the specific game plans for all those games, but I do remember that in the Denver game, it was Samuel vs Lelie and Hobbs vs. Smith. But in the reg-season Denver game, it was Starks playing Smith all day long. Obviously, this was a matchup-based decision (due to Lelie's speed and the need to bring a safety in the box vs. Denver's run) and Hobbs was getting some safety help over the top. When I say that Samuel was the #1 CB, I'm talking about him playing the LCB position. Almost all the teams have their best CB playing LCB.

I understand and am not looking to pick a fight. that is why I amended my last post to say that my original point was that I am expecting Hobbs to remain a starter next season but will be surprised in Samuel emerges from camp with his starting job in tact. I think by re-reading some of the other posts in this thread you will see that I am not alone in that belief.

 

[The Gr8est]

One thing that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere is that BB did NOT trade for any future draft picks. That may mean that this talent infusion into the offense was his plan all along. The picks of Thomas and Mills in particular, with their character and intangibles in particular, seem to be guys that BB envisions revolutinizing the Pats offense and he wasn't going to risk losing them.

 

[ilduce06410]

chaos theory

The Pats don't really have a first and second CB.
They have a LCB and a RCB, and they don't flip flop. Each draws the guy lined up against him irrespective of whether that receiver is a #1 or #2 WR.
They don't have a SS or FS per se. They have a Right and Left safety. It just turns out that the LS is usually lined up on the Offenses strong side (where the TE lines up), and most teams run right. So Harrison was usually playing the run since he was a LS.

jimmyjames and bucky, i (think) i follow your arguments, but IMO AzPatsFan is closer to the schemes i see out there.
1. patriots don't do the whole SS/FS thing, it's more of a 'split safety' philosophy.
2. certainly ty law played LCB all his time here. but i don't think it was because there was a LCB/RCB approach. IMO it waas because ty felt more comfortable on that side of the field. but as you may remember ty and rodney started playing CB-safety games late in ty's last season.
3. the patriots playbook doesn't seem to have safeties rotate toward one or another side of the field in an organized way. it's more like forward/back. it's much harder for opposing QBs to read complete a progression before big sey or willie ray close the pocket.
4. IMO BB doesn't see that backfield in the context of 4 starters, a nickel back, and a dime DB. it looks like to me that his basic unit is 6 DBs, using backs in a rotation where their roles change from play to play. the QB can't figure out the coverage by watching the safeties, they move every which way.
5. QBs also can't figure out who's covering the #1 WR, it's often more like a zone thing. in one sector and man-to-man somewhere else. if there is assignment of a CB to single coverage for an entire game, it's surely disguised to try & confuse the QB.
6. i like seeing samuel in the middle of the field, he impresses me as a ballhawk. hobbs seems good at man coverage, that could be on either WR or on the TE. gay & several others look really good to me when they're floating back there in some kinda disguised zone, with help from a LB or a safety.
7. geno wilson is a more confident player when rodney is next to him. the whole DB needs a leader, e.g. willie clay, lawyer, RH. then the 1-2 hitters, like t-buck, wilson, and others. samuel got in some heavy hits last season.
8. IMO that back 7 sets up in a way that the safeties have to come up and make first hits if the triangle in the middle (MLB-DT-DT, or ILB-ILB-NT) breaks up. guss scott, sanders, wilson, ventrone, all got hurt coming up to take on the likes of ron brown, mcgahee, the bus, tomlinson, running untouched into the backfield. even RH isn't enough if opposing teams can get their RBs into the backfield like that say, 10 times a game.

 

[DaBruinz]

Not to jinx Chad or anything, but didn't BB take Bethel Johnson about the same spot as he took Jackson?

Actually, Eugene Wilson was taken with the 4th pick in the second round in 2003. Johnson was taken with the 13th pick in the 2nd round.

Branch was taken with the 33rd pick in the 2nd round in 2002.

http://www.drafthistory.com/teams/patriots.html