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Mock off-season (pre-combine)


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OK I'll bite Here is my ideal scenario with one proviso. Scenario A is one that the Pats resign Welker - Scenario B is the one where they can't. Both assume Light and Waters return

Scenario A

1. FA

a. Your own - Resign - Carter, Anderson, Welker and Connolly. Let Koppen, Iheadabu, Branch and BJGE walk -
b. additions - Sign - Michael Griffin or Goldson I don't care which - Sign a 3rd TE in an ideal world Yeatman or Smith will become available. Add a WR to compete with Ocho for Branch's snaps (under 6MM/yr) - Sign a couple of cheap vet OLmen to compete for the 9th OL position-

2. Draft- this is my fantasy, but I'll try and be as realistic as I can and deal with just the first 5 picks and assuming we don't trade any of those into the future.

a. By position - DL, OLB/DE, CB, WR and S
b. my fantasy draft based on what little I know right now. Cox - for interior pass rush
Marcilus- as an eventual Carter replacement who can play DE and OL Minnefield- another big tall CB with press coverage skill - Some tall WR with deep speed. fill in the blank - Markel Carter - to develop as a S if Barrett gets hurt again.

Scenario B - If Welker walks

1. FA - the same as above only you delete Welker, and upgrade the WR position and add Vincent Jackson so the 6MM/yr goes up to 9MM/yr
2. Draft - The draft remains the same, but instead of big WR, you go for the quicker guy regardless of size, like Adams and you might even be willing to move up in the 3rd round to get him.

Compete with Ocho, that made me laugh. We have Tiquan and Edleman signed for that. I'd expect an old coach to respect what Branch still brings every week, attention to detail and ability to do all the little things that help the other receivers even if he isn't the focus or can't get open. And the sign a name I recognize mentality...and give Welker's money to a troubled verticle threat and draft some tall CB and tall WR...it's almost NEM like, Ken.
 
Franchise Welker, and push aggressively to resign him, freeing up around $3 mil.

Re-sign Anderson, Carter, Branch, Connolly, BJGE, Hoyer, Ihedigbo, Love, Slater, Warren, White...should all be low cost moves except Anderson, who may command $5 million-ish. People see the Law Firm walking, I don't think there's going to be too much market for him. Lots of stud RBs available, BJGE is a notch above a jag, and probably more valuable here than anywhere else.

Cut - Chad Eight Five

Sign Brandon Lloyd, which seems the no brainer given his relationship with McD and his recent productivity. I'd love to finagle a way to sign Brandon Carr, he's really be a one-shot solution to the secondary problems. If too pricey, I like Richard Marshall as a low cost alternative. Both Carr and Marshall do something the Pats DBs can't, they allow a low completion percentage on their targets.

And for the draft:
Muhammad Sanu - WR - Long-term WR answer, tall, good hands, character guy
Brandon Thompson - DT - Undersized for 3-4, but has strength to compensate. Explosive inside rusher
Leonard Johnson - CB - Vocal leader in secondary, plays both zone and man well
Vinny Curry - DE/OLB - Quick off the snap and strong bull rusher, big character guy

That should fill both the short and long term needs pretty well.
 
Compete with Ocho, that made me laugh. We have Tiquan and Edleman signed for that. I'd expect an old coach to respect what Branch still brings every week, attention to detail and ability to do all the little things that help the other receivers even if he isn't the focus or can't get open. And the sign a name I recognize mentality...and give Welker's money to a troubled verticle threat and draft some tall CB and tall WR...it's almost NEM like, Ken.

I appreciate that NEM reference. That's funny. But the "old coach" also recognizes the following. Branch CANNOT get free against any kind of physical coverage and that is what the Pats predominantly are seeing these days. Its time the game has changed an new skills are needed. Its the same for Koppen. If the league was predominantly 4-3 like it was when he came into the league, I'd be campaigning for him to be resigned. But its not. We need bigger stronger guys who can set the middle in pass protection, more than we need a C who can get to the second level in the run game.

The "old coach" also is interesting to see if Chad's poor production this season was the result of him losing his speed and quickness, or a result of the fact he was primarily the #5 option. If it was the latter, then I would give him the full off season to gain Brady's confidence and look at him as a bigger strong Branch, and a guy who has had a lot of success against man coverage. Worth a shot, his second year has less of a cap hit. However if the staff feels he simply lost it, then by all means let him go. I just don't think he has.

The "old coach" is simply recognizing that the game has changed. WR's are getting bigger and bigger every year. The defense has to answer in kind. Dowling would have made a big difference because he excelled at press coverage. A guy like Minnefield could do the same. The Pats were horrible when they had to go man last season and they did it rarely, simply because they didn't have the players who could do it well. Its not Mem-like to recognize reality. And its important that the "real coach" has the personnel to use all the bullets in his arsenal, and not be limited simply because he doesn't have the player to run a particular sub package

The "old coach" would like to see what a big outside threat WR would bring to the table. I don't care if we get one through the draft or through FA, but I want a guy with "real" speed. I don't want a 4.6 Plexico Burress type who doesn't become relevant until you hit the red zone.. That's my issue with Lloyd. To me he's more of a good intermediate receiver. If you want to replace Branch with him over Ocho, I'd be good with that. But don't expect him to be a "field stretcher".

The "old coach" doesn't advocate letting Welker walk, he's just recognizing that its a possibility. And if it occurs, THEN I'd want the Pats to get the best speed guy available, and from what I gather, that guy is Vincent Jackson. A guy who is more than a just verticle threat. Were you asleep with the Pats played the Chargers in September and missed the 180 yds and 18 ypc he got making catches ALL over the field. There's a risk with him, but when motivated he's a "man".

BTW- the "old coach" wouldn't make this move if Welker is here. He isn't the kind of guy who'd be happy being the #4 threat. That's something that people should be more conscious of when crying for this "field stretching" WR. Whomever he winds up being, he better be happy being the #4 option most of the time.

I keep thinking that what we need is a "Stallworth-like" wide receiver. Someone who would be happy running 9 routes most of the time and willing to only get 3-4 targets a game. I think Ocho would be thrilled to be brought back and "upgraded" to #4.

I think the because of the lockout, Chad didn't have the time to "get" this offense and de-remember close to a decade in something completely different. By the time he DID get it late in the season, the target order was set in Brady's mind. If there is one thing I'd like to improve on Brady, is his tendency to predetermine to who he's going to. Too often I think he get locked into his favorite targets and ignores wide open RBs and other less notable receivers. A little too stubborn I think.....just a little. Do you ever get that impression, Mo.

Any how. I hope that clarifies my "Nem-like" position. ;)
 
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There are a million productive things I should be doing... but lets not worry about the real world for a while.

My predictions - based on a guess that they have about 22M in capspace

Light and Waters unretire

Free agents
WR - Welker signed - average cap hit $6.5 M over 3 years
DE - Adam Carriker, 3-4 DE / DT - average cap hit $3M over 3 years
DE - Anderson - average cap hit $3M over 3 years
WR - Slater resigned - average cap hit $1 M over 2 years
OLB/DE - Jarret Johnson -average cap hit $2.5 M over 3 years
C - Connolly resigned -average cap hit $1.1 M over 4 years
S/CB - Jason Allen - average cap hit $1.1M over 2 years
WR - Branch - $1 M one year deal
C - Koppen - $1 M one year deal

about $19M spent so far

Draft
1st Round (Pick 27) (via New Orleans) - trade 2nd Round (Pick 63) - 1st round in 2013 plus 2nd rounder (say 50) this year
1st Round (Pick 31) - Mark Barron, SS
2nd Round (Pick 48) (via Oakland) - Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana
2nd Round (Pick 50 via trade) - Josh Chapman, DT, Alabama
2nd Round (Pick 63) - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
3rd Round (Pick 94) - Chris Polk, RB, Washington
4th Round (TBD) - Brian Quick WR, Appalachian State

Roster is something like
WR - Welker, Branch, Quick
TE - Gronk, Herdandez
QB - Brady
O Line - same as this year
RB - Ridley, Woodhead, Vereen, Polk

CB - Arrington, Ras Dowling, Sterling, Johnson
S - Chung, Barron
CB/S - McCourty, Allen

OLB/DE - Johnson, Anderson, Ninkovich, McClellin, Cunningham
DT - Wilfork, Love, Chapman, Crriker, Pryor, Deadrick
 
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I appreciate that NEM reference. That's funny. But the "old coach" also recognizes the following. Branch CANNOT get free against any kind of physical coverage and that is what the Pats predominantly are seeing these days. Its time the game has changed an new skills are needed. Its the same for Koppen. If the league was predominantly 4-3 like it was when he came into the league, I'd be campaigning for him to be resigned. But its not. We need bigger stronger guys who can set the middle in pass protection, more than we need a C who can get to the second level in the run game.

The "old coach" also is interesting to see if Chad's poor production this season was the result of him losing his speed and quickness, or a result of the fact he was primarily the #5 option. If it was the latter, then I would give him the full off season to gain Brady's confidence and look at him as a bigger strong Branch, and a guy who has had a lot of success against man coverage. Worth a shot, his second year has less of a cap hit. However if the staff feels he simply lost it, then by all means let him go. I just don't think he has.

The "old coach" is simply recognizing that the game has changed. WR's are getting bigger and bigger every year. The defense has to answer in kind. Dowling would have made a big difference because he excelled at press coverage. A guy like Minnefield could do the same. The Pats were horrible when they had to go man last season and they did it rarely, simply because they didn't have the players who could do it well. Its not Mem-like to recognize reality. And its important that the "real coach" has the personnel to use all the bullets in his arsenal, and not be limited simply because he doesn't have the player to run a particular sub package

The "old coach" would like to see what a big outside threat WR would bring to the table. I don't care if we get one through the draft or through FA, but I want a guy with "real" speed. I don't want a 4.6 Plexico Burress type who doesn't become relevant until you hit the red zone.. That's my issue with Lloyd. To me he's more of a good intermediate receiver. If you want to replace Branch with him over Ocho, I'd be good with that. But don't expect him to be a "field stretcher".

The "old coach" doesn't advocate letting Welker walk, he's just recognizing that its a possibility. And if it occurs, THEN I'd want the Pats to get the best speed guy available, and from what I gather, that guy is Vincent Jackson. A guy who is more than a just verticle threat. Were you asleep with the Pats played the Chargers in September and missed the 180 yds and 18 ypc he got making catches ALL over the field. There's a risk with him, but when motivated he's a "man".

BTW- the "old coach" wouldn't make this move if Welker is here. He isn't the kind of guy who'd be happy being the #4 threat. That's something that people should be more conscious of when crying for this "field stretching" WR. Whomever he winds up being, he better be happy being the #4 option most of the time.

I keep thinking that what we need is a "Stallworth-like" wide receiver. Someone who would be happy running 9 routes most of the time and willing to only get 3-4 targets a game. I think Ocho would be thrilled to be brought back and "upgraded" to #4.

I think the because of the lockout, Chad didn't have the time to "get" this offense and de-remember close to a decade in something completely different. By the time he DID get it late in the season, the target order was set in Brady's mind. If there is one thing I'd like to improve on Brady, is his tendency to predetermine to who he's going to. Too often I think he get locked into his favorite targets and ignores wide open RBs and other less notable receivers. A little too stubborn I think.....just a little. Do you ever get that impression, Mo.

No, I don't, at least not since Randy left.

Some idle time reading material for the old coach. Our old GM talks about why it's difficult to find WR's for this system via the draft in particular and even FA. Sometimes you really can't coach speed...

And for the record, Chad NEVER DID GET IT and was even being re-positioned to the end and Chad has both lost a step and never did master the ability to chew gum and walk (which is what you have to do in this offense, read post snap and seemlessly adjust on the fly). He had 20 weeks of in season practice and a full TC. The new limited off season program that doesn't let them into the facility before April 15th or allow OTA's before mid May isn't going to help him, not that he'll have time anyway since he's marrying the never a basketball wife in July and they start filming the run up to the wedding series next month.

I LOL that you want Brady to improve on his tendancy to target his playmakers. Bill LOL's at that too. If anyone is presenting as a little too stubborn, me thinks it is the old coach. And blaming Brady is lamer than blaming the OC...

BostonHerald.com - Blogs: Rap Sheet» Blog Archive » Scott Pioli discusses the challenges in picking wide receivers - including his misses in New England
 
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Updated wishlist (not really a prediction) - based on a guess that they have about 22M in capspace

With all the talk of a big name reciever my opinion is that they would be better off getting Mario Williams for about the same money as a high end reciever. He is an every down, impact player with versatility.

Light and Waters unretire

Free agents
WR - Welker signed - average cap hit $6.5 M over 3 years
DE - Mario Williams, 3-4 DE / OLB - average cap hit $8M over 5 years
WR - Slater resigned - average cap hit $1 M over 2 years
C - Connolly resigned -average cap hit $1.5 M over 4 years
S/CB - Jason Allen - average cap hit $1.1M over 2 years
WR - Branch - $1 M one year deal

about $19M spent so far

Draft
1st Round (Pick 27) (via New Orleans) - Mark Barron, just makes too much sense
1st Round (Pick 31) - Michael Brockers, DT/DE, LSU
2nd Round (Pick 48) (via Oakland) - Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana
2nd Round (Pick 63) - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
3rd Round (Pick 94) - Ben Jones, C/G, Georgia
4th Round (TBD) -Marvin Jones, WR, California

Roster is something like
WR - Welker, Branch, Jones
TE - Gronk, Herdandez
QB - Brady
O Line - basically same as this year plus Ben Jones
RB - Ridley, Woodhead, Vereen, plus yet to be named JAG
CB - Arrington, Ras Dowling, Sterling, Johnson
S - Chung, Barron

OLB/DE - Williams, Ninkovich, McClellin, Cunningham
DT - Wilfork, Love, Brockers, Pryor, Deadrick
 
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Updated wishlist (not really a prediction) - based on a guess that they have about 22M in capspace

With all the talk of a big name reciever my opinion is that they would be better off getting Mario Williams for about the same money as a high end reciever. He is an every down, impact player with versatility.

Light and Waters unretire

Free agents
WR - Welker signed - average cap hit $6.5 M over 3 years
DE - Mario Williams, 3-4 DE / OLB - average cap hit $8M over 5 years
WR - Slater resigned - average cap hit $1 M over 2 years
C - Connolly resigned -average cap hit $1.5 M over 4 years
S/CB - Jason Allen - average cap hit $1.1M over 2 years
WR - Branch - $1 M one year deal

about $19M spent so far

Draft
1st Round (Pick 27) (via New Orleans) - Mark Barron, just makes too much sense
1st Round (Pick 31) - Michael Brockers, DT/DE, LSU
2nd Round (Pick 48) (via Oakland) - Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana
2nd Round (Pick 63) - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
3rd Round (Pick 94) - Ben Jones, C/G, Georgia
4th Round (TBD) -Marvin Jones, WR, California

Roster is something like
WR - Welker, Branch, Jones
TE - Gronk, Herdandez
QB - Brady
O Line - basically same as this year plus Ben Jones
RB - Ridley, Woodhead, Vereen, plus yet to be named JAG
CB - Arrington, Ras Dowling, Sterling, Johnson
S - Chung, Barron

OLB/DE - Williams, Ninkovich, McClellin, Cunningham
DT - Wilfork, Love, Brockers, Pryor, Deadrick

Welker signing for 3 yrs and 19.5mill and Williams signing for 5 and 40 is not realistic.
1.5 mill a year for Connolly to start is also unrealistic. The cap is roughly 120 miill for 53 guys or 2.25mill for the avg player. To expect a starter to take 60% of the average pay per all players on the 53 is a big stretch, IMO.
What happened to McCourty?
 
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