The cap is by nature misleading. We are paying for our big ticket players (and there are only really 2) as we go. Polian is pushing as much of the hit for his big ticket players (and there are 3 and potentially 4 if Freeney is resigned) forward as he can.
Belioli's philosophy says you cannot have multiple highest paid players at the position on your team or you cannot afford quality depth throughout the rest of your roster. Pioli's philosophy is screw quality depth, it's the top talent on the roster that determines your fate. And in his case it has.
I prefer to look at these deals by AAV with an eye towards how much is being accounted for in the present and how much more is waiting to be faced in the future. Brady and Seymour are currently signed to deals that average $10M per season. In Seymour's case it is a short term extension that was structured in such a way that more than 20% of that contracts value can and likely will be dealt with this season. If it in fact is, that will drop his AAV to $8M over the life of the contract. So that's $18M for Brady and Seymour. Our next 3 highest paid are all in the $4-5M AAV range. So lets call it top 3 at $23M, and top 5 at $31M.
Manning's deal has an AAV of $14M. Harrison's $9.5M. So that's $23.5M for their top two. (+$5.5M) They also have the highest paid #2WR in the league in Wayne whose AAV is $6.5M per. So that's $30M for their 3 highest paid players (+$7M) Add in $6M each for Simon and Mathis and their top 5 are at $42M (+$11M). If Freeney stays and gets $9M+ that will up their top 5 to $45M (+$15M).
Now through the miracle (or nightmare) of capology you can re-arrange those figures to suit your needs in a given year, for a while. Manning for example has only counted in the $8-10M range on the Colts cap to date, because much of what he has been paid to date is bonus money which has been amortized rather than salary. His cap hits climb dramatically in 2008 and beyond when his bonus money ceases and is replaced by hefty double digit salaries on top of all that remaining bonus amortization that allowed his cap hits to remain manageable between 2004-2007. So at that point the only answer will be to either absorb $17-21M cap hits between 2008-2010 or restructure his deal by extending him for another 3-5 years so you can pay him another $30M+ bonus and start the same process all over again only this time while you are still paying the amortization on the last deal.
Sooner or later as he rapidly approaches 40 during that extension, Peyton will be unable to perform and the Colts will finally have to deal with the dead cap hit then remaining from the new deal they fashioned to get around the old deal they couldn't live with. They will face a similar scenario with Harrison in the next few years as he is unable to play out his deal through it's existing amortization. They gave Wayne the deal they did because they know the clock is ticking on Marvin who will be 34 when this season commences with 5 years remaining on his 7 year $67M deal. Obviously Marvin will never see the phony salaries in the out years of that deal, but he has already seen $22M in bonus money that was amortized through 2010, and unless he plays another 4 years productively enough to warrant substantial cap hits he will result in substantial dead cap when he goes.
The Pat's deals with Brady and Seymour to not present that scenario. If they are extended it will be by choice rather than out of necessity to manipulate dare I say cap killing hits that resulted from both the size and structure of Manning and Harrison's deals and Polian's need to amortize as much of each of their deals as he did in order to keep fielding a team of 53 while not exceeding the annual cap. Now from a purely capology based standpoint you can admire Polian's approach because it has allowed him to do things he really cannot afford to do in the present. We did a little of that in the past, but we are clearly moving away from that model as our base cap philosophy because it does not represent a sound long term business plan.
Pioli says you have to keep an eye on the future when flexibility may also matter, unless you are operating in a window. Belioli appreciate that we are in a window with Brady, but they don't think the franchise will cease when that particular window closes, and I think as guys who care about legacy they hope to leave this team in far better shape financially than they found it in in 2000 - when Pioli had to clean up his predecessors mess and Belichick had to cobble a team together in the interim. Polian is operating the Colts as if Peyton's window may be his and Indy's last best Superbowl window. He got the Bills there three times in the late 80's but could not win. He built the expansion Panthers into a winning franchise but left before they got to a Superbowl. He's entering his 10th season with the Colts and hasn't come close. GM's who don't get there rarely remain as long as Polian already has. IMHO Polian believes he will either win one (which forgives all in the short term) or be long gone before the cap consequences of his tenure in Indy come due. The GM of the Colts in the post-Manning era will have some work to do and likely a little cap mess to straighten up.
Maybe they'll hire Pioli.