Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by pats1, Jun 19, 2006.
If they ever have a season with half as many injuries as we have averaged over the past 3 years, they won't win 4 games! I don't have their salary cap figures but they must have 30 to 40% of their cap money tied up in 5 players.
WTF?????? What is with the Colts and the cap? Why do they continue to sign these guys to huge ass contracts? Mark my words, signing players to undeserving contracts will never get the Colts to the superbowl. I think Mathis is overrated because everybody focuses on Dwight Freeney, which allows Mathis an easy path around the right tackle to the QB. The Colts sure as hell better pray that Freeney stays healthy because they are one injury away from their defense going from decent to one of the worst in the league.
Too Funny. We own this team when it matters, they constantly make excuses, and overpay their players. Yet i still hate them with a passion. Kind of strange but I enjoy it.
I really don't have a clue as to how they will play this coming season. If i see them go 9-7 or 13-3 neither would really surprise me.
Big Deal. The Pats currently have 31% of their cap money tied up in Brady, Seymour, Colvin, Vrabel, and Green. And that percentage may go depending what happens with Seymour's contract.
The percentage will very likely go up next year.
But we are what 16 mil under the cap? Last I saw the Colts were 9 mil under the cap before this signing and then add in the rookies they may have around 3 million? That 30-40% is a much larger number that won't decrease until next year and that depends on what they give Freeney. The 31% will only decrease with each Patriots signing so it is misleading to compare the two situations.
FWIW - The Colts' rookie pool number is 3,157,508. Because of the Rule of 51 it will take much less than that in cap space for the Colts to sign their draft picks.
FYI - Here's how I come up with the 31%. I added the cap hits for Brady, Colvin, Seymour, Vrabel and Green. Divided that total (31,065,050) by the Patriots adjusted cap number (100,009,940) and come up with 31%. That is not misleading.
The Colts' percentage may go down depending if they extend Freeney this year. His 2006 salary is $5 million. It is likely that with an extension that part of his salary would be converted to a signing bonus.
It is very unlikely that the Pats will go under 31%. Because they are under the cap by so much there is no need to convert the salaries/roster bonuses of Brady/Colvin/Green/Vrabel into signing bonuses. As I said before, there remains the possibility that the Pats' percentage will go up in August depening on what happens with Seymour's contract.
Interesting middle class tidbits
The Pats have 20 players with cap hits of over a million.
According to http://www.ianwhetstone.com/football/cap.html the Colts had in April 20 players with cap hits of over a million. It is very likely that number has not changed during the past 2 months.
That is a cool site. I am surprised to see they have the same amount of folks over a million as we do. But in my heart I believe our middle class is of better talent. Nothing but emotion there but WTF you only root for one team.
I didn't mean it was misleading in terms of the actual percentage. I mean 31% of the Colts cap and 31% of the Patriots cap are two different figures based on how much each has spent thus far.
Wow. Now THAT is a surprise.
One of these names sure does stand out, for all the wrong reasons...
31% of the Colts' and the Patriots adjusted cap numbers are going to be different simply because the Colts' adjusted cap number is different than the Patriots. The 32 teams all have different adjusted cap numbers.
The Pats' current cap expenditure is 83,472,340. 31 million is about 37% of that number. I purposedly use the adjusted cap limit number so as not to mislead but I was accused of it anyway.
I wasn't accusing you of misleading anyone I was accusing the percentage of being misleading. Calm down I would never argue caponomics with you that would be cyber suicide.
The cap is by nature misleading. We are paying for our big ticket players (and there are only really 2) as we go. Polian is pushing as much of the hit for his big ticket players (and there are 3 and potentially 4 if Freeney is resigned) forward as he can.
Belioli's philosophy says you cannot have multiple highest paid players at the position on your team or you cannot afford quality depth throughout the rest of your roster. Pioli's philosophy is screw quality depth, it's the top talent on the roster that determines your fate. And in his case it has.
I prefer to look at these deals by AAV with an eye towards how much is being accounted for in the present and how much more is waiting to be faced in the future. Brady and Seymour are currently signed to deals that average $10M per season. In Seymour's case it is a short term extension that was structured in such a way that more than 20% of that contracts value can and likely will be dealt with this season. If it in fact is, that will drop his AAV to $8M over the life of the contract. So that's $18M for Brady and Seymour. Our next 3 highest paid are all in the $4-5M AAV range. So lets call it top 3 at $23M, and top 5 at $31M.
Manning's deal has an AAV of $14M. Harrison's $9.5M. So that's $23.5M for their top two. (+$5.5M) They also have the highest paid #2WR in the league in Wayne whose AAV is $6.5M per. So that's $30M for their 3 highest paid players (+$7M) Add in $6M each for Simon and Mathis and their top 5 are at $42M (+$11M). If Freeney stays and gets $9M+ that will up their top 5 to $45M (+$15M).
Now through the miracle (or nightmare) of capology you can re-arrange those figures to suit your needs in a given year, for a while. Manning for example has only counted in the $8-10M range on the Colts cap to date, because much of what he has been paid to date is bonus money which has been amortized rather than salary. His cap hits climb dramatically in 2008 and beyond when his bonus money ceases and is replaced by hefty double digit salaries on top of all that remaining bonus amortization that allowed his cap hits to remain manageable between 2004-2007. So at that point the only answer will be to either absorb $17-21M cap hits between 2008-2010 or restructure his deal by extending him for another 3-5 years so you can pay him another $30M+ bonus and start the same process all over again only this time while you are still paying the amortization on the last deal.
Sooner or later as he rapidly approaches 40 during that extension, Peyton will be unable to perform and the Colts will finally have to deal with the dead cap hit then remaining from the new deal they fashioned to get around the old deal they couldn't live with. They will face a similar scenario with Harrison in the next few years as he is unable to play out his deal through it's existing amortization. They gave Wayne the deal they did because they know the clock is ticking on Marvin who will be 34 when this season commences with 5 years remaining on his 7 year $67M deal. Obviously Marvin will never see the phony salaries in the out years of that deal, but he has already seen $22M in bonus money that was amortized through 2010, and unless he plays another 4 years productively enough to warrant substantial cap hits he will result in substantial dead cap when he goes.
The Pat's deals with Brady and Seymour to not present that scenario. If they are extended it will be by choice rather than out of necessity to manipulate dare I say cap killing hits that resulted from both the size and structure of Manning and Harrison's deals and Polian's need to amortize as much of each of their deals as he did in order to keep fielding a team of 53 while not exceeding the annual cap. Now from a purely capology based standpoint you can admire Polian's approach because it has allowed him to do things he really cannot afford to do in the present. We did a little of that in the past, but we are clearly moving away from that model as our base cap philosophy because it does not represent a sound long term business plan.
Pioli says you have to keep an eye on the future when flexibility may also matter, unless you are operating in a window. Belioli appreciate that we are in a window with Brady, but they don't think the franchise will cease when that particular window closes, and I think as guys who care about legacy they hope to leave this team in far better shape financially than they found it in in 2000 - when Pioli had to clean up his predecessors mess and Belichick had to cobble a team together in the interim. Polian is operating the Colts as if Peyton's window may be his and Indy's last best Superbowl window. He got the Bills there three times in the late 80's but could not win. He built the expansion Panthers into a winning franchise but left before they got to a Superbowl. He's entering his 10th season with the Colts and hasn't come close. GM's who don't get there rarely remain as long as Polian already has. IMHO Polian believes he will either win one (which forgives all in the short term) or be long gone before the cap consequences of his tenure in Indy come due. The GM of the Colts in the post-Manning era will have some work to do and likely a little cap mess to straighten up.
Maybe they'll hire Pioli.
Also, Miguel, The Colts have most of their money tied up in the Q.B. and then two OFFENSIVE PLAYERS. As in, Offense wins games but DEFENSE wins championships.
I would rather have Seymour than anyone on their team. I would rather have Vrabel than Mathis. Vrabel had ten sacks with a broken arm one year, and covers our butt at tight end, linebacker and pass rusher. I would consider Colvin to be icing on the cake alongside Vrabel. Jarvis Green is pretty much a wash compared to Corey Simon, in my mind. They are both okay, not great.
Defense wins championships. I will take the 31% salary cap hit in exchange for better players.
See Mo, if you would have just written this instead of pasting stuff from an article, it wouldnt' have gotten the incorrect edit.
(still sorry about that, btw)
Yes, I've always thought it interesting that Jarvis Green has one of the biggest salaries on the Patriots --- more than something like 18 of the starters! Yet Jarvis Green = peace of mind if injuries happen.
By coincidence, Sporting News (summer '05) ranks Mathis and Green back-to-back as the 40th and 41st best Defensive Ends in the league. So I guess Green deserves to be paid close to Mathis, even if Green doesn't start.
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