Mankins' price just went up

[emoney_33]

Does anybody know for a fact that Mankins wants to be paid at the top of his position or are we just speculating again?

I don't think you should go around speaking for everyone else. The details might not matter to you, but they matter to me. As a fan, I would love to see the best O-Lineman on the team kept to prevent there from being two holes at two different positions a year from now (a position that is protecting our franchise) if the price is fair. I just think that the team is waiting to see what happens with Brady's contract before they get to Mankins. Remember that Brady has never reached the last year of his deal. I don't expect him to start now. And if "all the speculation in the world means nothing", then why are you speculating right now?

First of all, you are the one who posted a message that seemingly indicates we should not speculate. Second of all I have not speculated anything at all. Third of all, you just threw a whole ton of speculation with your thoughts on waiting for Brady's contract.

My main point is that the details really don't matter with respect to whether he will be signed or not from a fan's perspective. Unless the argument is that the Patriots are NOT operating under a strict model?

If he's not signed that most likely means he was worth more to another team than the Patriots' value of him. If you want to argue how the Patriots value players in general fine, but there is a decade worth of data in compiling winning teams while spending to the cap that gives a lot of credence to their abilities. Since we will never know all the details in any specific case, we can't really determine effectively if the Patriots valuation of a specific player was correct.

At that point there will be one side arguing back-and-forth strictly using the minute amount of facts reported to fans and there will be another group that tries to understand the Patriots methods by inference under the assumption that the Patriots FO actually spends a lot of time, money and intelligence on these things with a vast pool of information of which we will never be privy to.

Anyway, I made a quick offhand comment in response to your speculation post and it's gone off on a tangent now, with most of my post probably not pertaining to your point of view or argument on this topic.

 

[emoney_33]

Let's see how difficult this is. Is the leader of the OL worth $8M a year in an uncapped year where the effect on later years will be manageable?

Do we want to face going into 2011 depending on a declining center in his last year and two holes at guard?

For all intents and purposes there is a cap this year. The Patriots aren't going to break their model for an uncapped year, so any arguments made under the assumption that the uncapped year makes things significantly different is futile IMHO.

We don't WANT to go into any year with any hole at any position. However, there are 32 teams in the NFL and most of their QBs aren't dead. We've lost talented OL in the past, we've made do with injured OL in the past, and the basis of this team (and any good business in general) is that there are very few irreplaceable parts. In the worst case, going into 2011 they will have the most work to do with the OL, but they are set up very nice so that they will be able to focus a lot of resources into filling the voids.

 

[patriotscpfc]

You can name multiple Guards who are better than Mankins.

The guy is probably 7th or 8th best in the league. At best.

 

[JMarr]

Vince could have made more money elsewhere, yet the Pats were able to negotiate a deal acceptable to both sides. It's very simple: if Mankins chooses to simply 'follow the money,' then good for him I guess--he won't be a Patriot in 2011 and will play under a lot of stress this year, hoping he doesn't get hurt, that there's no lockout next year, etc. etc.

 

[emoney_33]

Vince could have made more money elsewhere, yet the Pats were able to negotiate a deal acceptable to both sides. It's very simple: if Mankins chooses to simply 'follow the money,' then good for him I guess--he won't be a Patriot in 2011 and will play under a lot of stress this year, hoping he doesn't get hurt, that there's no lockout next year, etc. etc.

Vince did what he believed was best for Vince and his family. Logan will do the same. I won't fault any of the players for doing what they feel is in their best interest (except when they do shady things like Branch did) and we can only hope that the two sides "best interest" line up.

 

[JMarr]

Vince did what he believed was best for Vince and his family. Logan will do the same. I won't fault any of the players for doing what they feel is in their best interest (except when they do shady things like Branch did) and we can only hope that the two sides "best interest" line up.

I agree. But the Pats are definitely holding the better hand in this situation, in spite of what people say about the state of the interior line. Last year Mankins was good but not great and any new contract should reflect that. Guys that go for megamoney (i.e. more than they're worth) like Haynesworth and Asante usually end up regretting it (as do the teams stupid enough to pay it).

 

[Kontradiction]

First of all, you are the one who posted a message that seemingly indicates we should not speculate.

Nowhere in this thread did I indicate that we should not speculate. What I asked was if we knew for sure that Mankins was asking for top dollar or were we speculating on that. That does NOT mean "you guys should not speculate". Now, perhaps you thought I was taking a shot at you? I can guaruntee that I wasn't. It was actually an honest question. I guess the answer is "no, we don't know for sure what he's asking for".

Second of all I have not speculated anything at all.

If you don't know for a fact that he's asking for top dollar, you are speculating. There isn't anything wrong with it. This is a message board. If we couldn't speculate, what would we do?

Third of all, you just threw a whole ton of speculation with your thoughts on waiting for Brady's contract.

Sure did.

My main point is that the details really don't matter with respect to whether he will be signed or not from a fan's perspective. Unless the argument is that the Patriots are NOT operating under a strict model?

No, the argument is that I would like to be able to form my own opinion about this particular situation. That's why I would like to know if he's asking for top dollar. Apparently, he is not. Now, as a fan, that tells me that the Patriots either have no interest in signing him long term, or that they do and are just waiting on Brady's contract before they can talk numbers with Mankins. If he isn't asking for top dollar and Brady's contract gets done, I don't see why they wouldn't sign him. He's one of only two guys on the O-Line who is under 30. Neal's body is showing visible signs of breaking down and Light probably isn't long for the team. After clearing those two contracts out after this season, I see no reason why Mankins, our best O-Lineman and one of the better guards in the entire league, can't get signed.

If he's not signed that most likely means he was worth more to another team than the Patriots' value of him. If you want to argue how the Patriots value players in general fine, but there is a decade worth of data in compiling winning teams while spending to the cap that gives a lot of credence to their abilities. Since we will never know all the details in any specific case, we can't really determine effectively if the Patriots valuation of a specific player was correct.

Nobody is arguing about how the Patriots value players. That argument can be saved for Seymour threads or, in this case, after they let Mankins go (if they go that route). Your first sentence is pretty much common knowledge. I just hope they if they let him go, they don't "Seymour" it and actually have a capable body coming in behind him, whether that's Bussey or a draft pick.

At that point there will be one side arguing back-and-forth strictly using the minute amount of facts reported to fans and there will be another group that tries to understand the Patriots methods by inference under the assumption that the Patriots FO actually spends a lot of time, money and intelligence on these things with a vast pool of information of which we will never be privy to.

With this logic, we might as well not even post on a message board or talk about the Patriots. What's the point? We might as well just one up one another with constant agreements about how awesome the team is about everything and about how we know nothing. The fact of the matter is that a great amount of facts about things like the Mankins situation leak out through the media and other various sources. As fans or just NFL followers, we are more than capable of forming an opinion on what the Patriots do. This is unless you actually think that the Patriots have NEVER once made a mistake in the past decade. Is that your stance?

Anyway, I made a quick offhand comment in response to your speculation post and it's gone off on a tangent now, with most of my post probably not pertaining to your point of view or argument on this topic.

I think you more or less misunderstood that post.

 

[mgteich]

He may not be a patriot in 2010.

Vince could have made more money elsewhere, yet the Pats were able to negotiate a deal acceptable to both sides. It's very simple: if Mankins chooses to simply 'follow the money,' then good for him I guess--he won't be a Patriot in 2011 and will play under a lot of stress this year, hoping he doesn't get hurt, that there's no lockout next year, etc. etc.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Let's see how difficult this is. Is the leader of the OL worth $8M a year in an uncapped year where the effect on later years will be manageable?

Do we want to face going into 2011 depending on a declining center in his last year and two holes at guard?

Since when is Mankins the leader of the OL...

And again, the effect of any deal they do extends beyond future cap implications since they operate under an internal salary structure regardless of what other teams or the market or the cap or even revenue stream would appear to dictate... Always have and always will since it is at the core of their system.

 

[BaltimorePatsFan]

Logan Mankins is a good player but he's not on the same level as Jahri Evans. Evans got a roughly $8 million/year contract while Chris Snee, who I personally rate higher than Evans, is getting paid a little bit less than $7 million/year. I'd offer Mankins a deal worth about $6 million a year at most and I don't think the Pats should go higher than that.

 

[emoney_33]

Yeah misunderstanding on that post, my bad.

No, the argument is that I would like to be able to form my own opinion about this particular situation.

That's fine, I prefer to accept that I will never have enough information to form a valid assessment of the situation and look into possibilities of why the decisions were made as they were. I operate under the assumption that the Patriots FO actually has a lot of information, knowledge, intelligence and diligence. Thus I rather try to figure out what information we are missing that may have led the Patriots to a decision, rather than taking the tiny sprinkling of information we have as fans and attempting to pass judgement on their ultimate decision.

That's why I would like to know if he's asking for top dollar. Apparently, he is not. Now, as a fan, that tells me that the Patriots either have no interest in signing him long term, or that they do and are just waiting on Brady's contract before they can talk numbers with Mankins.

I disagree with the "no interest" aspect. I believe they undoubtedly have interest, but at this point that interest is seemingly not in line with the asking price. (top dollar or not, there is a lot more to it and I don't think the Patriots would just refuse to sign him at any price, which is what having "no interest" really means).

If he isn't asking for top dollar and Brady's contract gets done, I don't see why they wouldn't sign him. He's one of only two guys on the O-Line who is under 30. Neal's body is showing visible signs of breaking down and Light probably isn't long for the team. After clearing those two contracts out after this season, I see no reason why Mankins, our best O-Lineman and one of the better guards in the entire league, can't get signed.

Neal has nothing to do with it, nor does Koppen. You can't let that type of circumstance dictate your financial model unless it's catastrophic. Also "top dollar" is really vague. What if it were 500K less than top dollar? How much guaranteed does he want, etc... All in all, there's some value limit that the Patriots have set specifically for Mankins (of which I do not believe the state of the OL has an impact on).

With this logic, we might as well not even post on a message board or talk about the Patriots. What's the point? We might as well just one up one another with constant agreements about how awesome the team is about everything and about how we know nothing.

Actually this is not the case at all nor does the logic follow your conclusion. There have been many good discussions here that had to do with trying to figure out a decision rather than being judgemental based on media-leaked facts. One of my major gripes is that some people believe the message board is for analyzing based on known facts and completely ignoring the mere possibilities of any of the vast amount of unknown facts.

The fact of the matter is that a great amount of facts about things like the Mankins situation leak out through the media and other various sources. As fans or just NFL followers, we are more than capable of forming an opinion on what the Patriots do.

Well I simply disagree with this. We never get close to all of the information. We have no idea what scouts tell the FO, what underlying issues there are, team doctors, statistical studies of performance trends, and a whole host of other analytical tools and information that any good FO utilizes. We are capable of discussing the possibilities, the surface information, and what things seem like etc... But we are absolutely not capable of analyzing with conviction.

This is unless you actually think that the Patriots have NEVER once made a mistake in the past decade. Is that your stance?

I am not quite sure where you get this out of anything I have posted. I believe the Patriots absolutely have made multiple mistakes over the course of a decade. I also accept the fact that I will never have enough information to correctly assess which specific decision was wrong and how egregious the mistake was.

I said I was operating under the assumption that the Patriots do a TON of homework and have a ton of knowledge, intelligence and experience. As such, I would like to attempt to find out what possible explanations there are for the decisions. Maybe the decision was wrong, but rarely if ever for the reasons that fans/media usually state. If we are to believe the Patriots actually have a lot of knowledge and do put a lot of effort and intelligence into their decisions, then it is very likely that the end decision had a lot more unknown factors than the obvious media leaked information.

I just think it's short-sighted and wrong to judge a decision based only on the surface information. Let's first think about why the decision was likely made. We can be pretty sure that any decision that is "obviously" wrong on the surface, has a whole lot more to it than meets the eye. It's highly highly doubtful that the Patriots FO (or any FO really) would make such an OBVIOUSLY poor decision that mere fans can analyze it better than them in 30 seconds. Therefore even in ultimately poor decisions, there must be valid facts playing to the opposite from the FO's perspective.

That being said, of which I doubt anyone read as it is way too long, this is way too premature to even begin arguing in Mankins' case. What limit would you put on a contract for Mankins Kontra? What should he be worth to the Patriots in your opinon?

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

By the way, emoney, football player's careers may be short but they won't be in the poor house or anything after their done. Most of these guys could easily get a career in broadcasting for like ESPN or something like that, some local station or something. Many even start their own businesses. plain and simple. These guys are way richer than most people in this world and to leave the Patriots for a little extra money (Yes I will continue to say a little), im just not down with that. Look at Johnny Damon who left to go to the Yankees for extra cash. That's uncalled for. I'll be waiting for some guy to call me delusional and twisted now so I can go LMFAO.

We would all love to have another million in our pockets but is the 50 million in their already not enough? It just makes me sick.

 

[wcpatsfan]

I like Mankins a lot and hope to see him stick around. That said, my suspicion is that the Pats believe an Offensive Guard is simply not worth the kind of money Mankins will command. You might pay huge money to a left tackle, but you don't throw a ton of money at a guard. Especially not when you have a lot of draft picks next year and OG is one of the easier positions to draft.

 

[emoney_33]

By the way, emoney, football player's careers may be short but they won't be in the poor house or anything after their done. Most of these guys could easily get a career in broadcasting for like ESPN or something like that, some local station or something.

Only a very small percentage of NFL players will get a job at ESPN or some big broadcasting company where the salary could be considered "good". A local station, what do you think they will be paid?

Many even start their own businesses. plain and simple.

So you must have your own business and be doing quite well, since it's plain and simple?

These guys are way richer than most people in this world and to leave the Patriots for a little extra money (Yes I will continue to say a little), im just not down with that.

Most people posting here are "way richer than most people" in this world. There's no doubt they have one of the higher earning careers out there, and the top end of the earners will likely earn a good amount of money for their lifetime, but it's not nearly the ridiculous levels you believe. $250K a year for 40 years is $10M, but you aren't upset when those guys change employers/jobs. You are a fan you don't have to be "down" with players signing elsewhere.

Look at Johnny Damon who left to go to the Yankees for extra cash. That's uncalled for. I'll be waiting for some guy to call me delusional and twisted now so I can go LMFAO.

The redsox/yankee rivalry makes that especially egregious for a fan, but when you take the fandom out of it there's nothing wrong with what he did. That being said, Damon is dead to me. And MLB contracts for the upper tier players ARE ridiculous. $250M guaranteed to AROD or whatever.

We would all love to have another million in our pockets but is the 50 million in their already not enough? It just makes me sick.

There are very few players that have made $50M, and I don't know of any that refused $50M in favor of $51M. If it makes you sick you should either stop watching sports (i.e. stop contributing to the demand that raises salaries) or stop focusing on player's salaries.

Their salaries are simply following a relatively straight forward supply/demand curve. There is incredible demand from the consumer (fan) and very little supply (players willing/able to perform at that level).

 

[Deus Irae]

By the way, emoney, football player's careers may be short but they won't be in the poor house or anything after their done. Most of these guys could easily get a career in broadcasting for like ESPN or something like that, some local station or something. Many even start their own businesses. plain and simple. These guys are way richer than most people in this world and to leave the Patriots for a little extra money (Yes I will continue to say a little), im just not down with that. Look at Johnny Damon who left to go to the Yankees for extra cash. That's uncalled for. I'll be waiting for some guy to call me delusional and twisted now so I can go LMFAO.

We would all love to have another million in our pockets but is the 50 million in their already not enough? It just makes me sick.

By the time they have been retired for two years, 78% of former NFL players have gone bankrupt or are under financial stress because of joblessness or divorce.

Recession or no recession, many NFL, NBA and Major League - 03.23.09 - SI Vault

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

Recession or no recession, many NFL, NBA and Major League - 03.23.09 - SI Vault

Well, that's pathetic and gos to show that most NFL players are probably not very smart. Just like all those people who win the lottery and lose it all. The players who are going bankrupt are obviously not managing their money properly.

 

[emoney_33]

Well, that's pathetic and gos to show that most NFL players are probably not very smart. Just like all those people who win the lottery and lose it all. The players who are going bankrupt are obviously not managing their money properly.

You really sound like a snob.

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

Only a very small percentage of NFL players will get a job at ESPN or some big broadcasting company where the salary could be considered "good". A local station, what do you think they will be paid?



So you must have your own business and be doing quite well, since it's plain and simple?



Most people posting here are "way richer than most people" in this world. There's no doubt they have one of the higher earning careers out there, and the top end of the earners will likely earn a good amount of money for their lifetime, but it's not nearly the ridiculous levels you believe. $250K a year for 40 years is $10M, but you aren't upset when those guys change employers/jobs. You are a fan you don't have to be "down" with players signing elsewhere.



The redsox/yankee rivalry makes that especially egregious for a fan, but when you take the fandom out of it there's nothing wrong with what he did. That being said, Damon is dead to me. And MLB contracts for the upper tier players ARE ridiculous. $250M guaranteed to AROD or whatever.



There are very few players that have made $50M, and I don't know of any that refused $50M in favor of $51M. If it makes you sick you should either stop watching sports (i.e. stop contributing to the demand that raises salaries) or stop focusing on player's salaries.

Their salaries are simply following a relatively straight forward supply/demand curve. There is incredible demand from the consumer (fan) and very little supply (players willing/able to perform at that level).

Wow dude. I didn't mean that a starting a business was plain and simple. I meant that they are rich, plain and simple. I was also giving an example with ESPN. They cold really go do anything. They have plenty of money to go take some night classes at college and get a degree plus all of them really already went to college so they have a head start. I honestly don't understand why you keep stretching their salaries out to 40 years and comparing it to everyone else when their their earnings are made usually within 10-15 years. What do you think they do when they are done with football, sit around and twittle their thumbs? Even if you do stretch it to to 40 years and compare their salary to the average man, like you said 250k a year. How many people do you know making that much in a year? That is still an assload of money. Why do you think your so right? I don't really understand why you suggest to stop watching sports because I think their over payed. I can have my own opinion and continue to watch a game that I love. I hate arguing with people who are "never wrong".

You really sound like a snob.

Ok brah? Yeah I'm a snob because I think it's pathetic that millionaires are going bankrupt in a period of 26 months? Well you sound pretty damn ignorant yourself pal.

 

[GoWhalers]

Whether or not you think Mankins is worth top-OG money (and I can see both sides of that debate), I think the bigger issue here is that the Patriots sometimes seem to struggle for leverage when negotiating with their better performers, and let things come to a boiling point without backup options.

Some cases where the Patriots did a good job with leverage IMO:

Bledsoe - Brady was on the roster and outperforming
Milloy - Harrison on the roster to fill the leadership void
Wilfork - At least the Brace signing gave the Pats options
Ty Law - Samuel & Wilson filled the gap ably

Some cases where the Patriots did not do a good job with leverage:

Samuel - struggled to find a replacement for him in Pats system
Seymour - got good value for him, but had to play a season with no groomed replacement

There are probably many more, and I'd welcome all input.

Here's what I don't like about the Mankins situation -- the Pats know that Neal is not much longer for the game of football, so they should have some decent talent invested in replacements for Neal. That alone would give the Pats flexiblity when dealing with Mankins -- either Mankins takes the fair offer or Pats play the season with Neal + replacement at OG. But right now I don't even know who Neal's replacement might be, so are the Pats really looking ahead?

 

[Synovia]

He shouldn't get a bigger contract than Evans, Evans is the best guard in football

In NO offense, you could argue the guards on more important to protecting Brees than the tackles, because he is shorter and needs to move around to find passing lanes, those guards give him the room to do so. Brees can sense the rush so well he can get buy with someone like Bushrod playing LT, aslong as he has those dominating guards

honestly, I think Evans got a little screwed. It could be argued that Hutchinson, Little, and a handful of other guards got better deals a couple years ago.


Frankly, Mankins was already looking at this sort of money.