Last 5 Draft Classes

[Boomer B]

Boomer. Good post. I would add Collins as at least an above avg player to 13. He did make a probowl in 15 also. Warren is also prob closer to a pro bowl player even though he only went to one pro bowl. Slater is absolutely a pro bowl player. He is a 7x pro bowl and 4x AP.

Also Ghost could go to the hall if he keeps his stats stable.

Thanks. For Pro Bowls I would put them there if it was multiple selections. Slater I put as above average because he only plays special teams, but you are probably right, should have put him in the Pro Bowl category.

 

[Kontradiction]

I’m not whining at all if I was Kraft I would have fired Belichick.

• Benching Butler
• 2 poor drafts in a row
• 2 poor free agency periods
• Difficulty coaching the top 2 players on the team
• Trading Garoppolo and not making that pick a conditional first to protect against the possibility of them falling out of the top 5 in the draft
• Trading Jamie Collins for the same thing he would have received just letting him walk in UFA
• Trading Chandler Jones for a bottom the second round pick
• Giving big money to Hightower despite constant injury issues
• Giving Rex Buckhead almost the same amount of guaranteed money that the Titans gave Lewis

It is very clear that Belichick is not the coach or the team builder he once was and it is time to move on from him.

I still love the Patriots and I will watch them win or lose but if we are having a discussion about Belichick’s performance then I’m going to express my views on what I did not like, and that is not whining it is discussing the topic at hand.

Some of these are pretty valid points but you go off the rails when you want to fire Belichick. The guy has made some mistakes and if the team continues to skid then it might be easier to question if the game has passed him by (happens to all the great ones eventually although I don’t think we are there with him yet). Those that try to doubt that he’s made some mistakes are clowning themselves. But there’s not a better coach in the league. Perhaps you can fire off a few names of guys you would want to replace him with?

 

[jmt57]

7/42 players are Green 16.66%
28/42 players are Red 66.66%
7/42 players are Unrated 16.66%

I have not read through all seven pages of discussion, so if the following point has already been addressed then I apologize.

At first glance the numbers appear to be a damning indictment about the lack of success in drafting - and that probably is correct.

However, without any comparison to the 31 other teams these numbers are meaningless.
What is the league average for five years, four years, three years, etc.?
What is the median, top quartile and bottom quartile for each of those years?
How do all those rankings translate to wins and losses right now, a year later, two years later, etc.?

Specifically, what numbers and/or percentages for each of those three categories (green, red, black) equate to grades of A (great), B (good), C (average), D (below average) and F (fail)?



To put this into context, think of these statistical numbers:
89%
52%
34%

89% looks great - unless it is an NHL goalie's save percentage, which will get him benched, traded or sent down to the minors.

52% looks pretty good - unless it is an NFL quarterback's completion percentage, which will make his pro football career a short one.

34% by comparison looks bad - unless it is a MLB player's batting average, which will probably be the best in the league.


What about trading a draft pick for a player: did that veteran outperform how a rookie at that draft slot typically produced?

Besides drafting late as mentioned in the original post, how many openings do teams coming off a winning season normally have, compared to the number of openings on the roster of perennial losing franchises? I would think that players drafted by Denver from 2012 to 2015 did not have the same opportunities as players drafted by the Broncos in 2016 and 2017, for example. Similarly I would think that over the last several years it is more difficult to become a starter with the Packers than with the Raiders.



As a fan of the Patriots I certainly understand the frustration with the Pats drafts. I just think that looking at it in a vacuum with no benchmark comparison yields no true statistical evidence.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Brady is the GOAT for a reason I do not think BB the HC/GM win Five SB's with Brian Hoyer or anybody else not named Brady at QB.

And Brady doesn’t come close to sniffing 5 rings with another coach.

 

[fightingirish595]

Here's how I see a draft breakdown since Belichick took over

2000 - 2004

Hall of Fame Type Player

Tom Brady
Richard Seymour
Vince Wilfork

Pro Bowl Level Player

Matt Light
Asante Samuel

Above Average Player

Deion Branch
Dan Koppen
Ty Warren
David Givens

2005 - 2009

Pro Bowl Level Player

Logan Mankins
Stephen Gostkowski

Above Average Player

Jerod Mayo
Sebastian Vollmer
Julian Edelman
Patrick Chung
Matthew Slater

2010 - 2014

Hall of Fame Level Player

Rob Gronkowski

Pro Bowl Level Player

Chandler Jones
Devin McCourty

Above Average Player

Nate Solder
Dont'a Hightower
Aaron Hernandez
James White
Jimmy Garoppolo

2015 - 2018

Above Average Player

Trey Flowers
Shaq Mason

Belichick's drafts from 2000 - 2005 varied from solid to fantastic. 2006 - 2008 were decent. He came back with a vengeance from 2009 to 2012. Great drafts. 2013 - 2015 were decent. 2016 - 2017 look really really bad. 2018 to be determined.

We had 3 Hall of Fame type draft picks in Belichick's early years on top of a lot of other solid picks. A big part of the first 3 Super Bowls along with some of the talent already on the team and some good FA picks ups.

The great drafts from 2009 - 2012 really lifted us during the last few Super Bowl's as guys like Edleman, Gronk, McCourty, Hightower, Chung, Jones, Solder, etc.. were all on the upswing or hitting their prime.

We swung badly in 2016 - 2017. The only starter from those drafts is Joe Thuney and he is average at best. Still hope for D. Wise to pan out. I really hope 2018 was a return to form for Bill. We need to see him nail the next few drafts.

Hightower in prime was an impact player. We selected a lot of impact players from 2010-2012

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Here's how I see a draft breakdown since Belichick took over

2000 - 2004

Hall of Fame Type Player

Tom Brady
Richard Seymour
Vince Wilfork

Pro Bowl Level Player

Matt Light
Asante Samuel

Above Average Player

Deion Branch
Dan Koppen
Ty Warren
David Givens

2005 - 2009

Pro Bowl Level Player

Logan Mankins
Stephen Gostkowski

Above Average Player

Jerod Mayo
Sebastian Vollmer
Julian Edelman
Patrick Chung
Matthew Slater

2010 - 2014

Hall of Fame Level Player

Rob Gronkowski

Pro Bowl Level Player

Chandler Jones
Devin McCourty

Above Average Player

Nate Solder
Dont'a Hightower
Aaron Hernandez
James White
Jimmy Garoppolo

2015 - 2018

Above Average Player

Trey Flowers
Shaq Mason

Belichick's drafts from 2000 - 2005 varied from solid to fantastic. 2006 - 2008 were decent. He came back with a vengeance from 2009 to 2012. Great drafts. 2013 - 2015 were decent. 2016 - 2017 look really really bad. 2018 to be determined.

We had 3 Hall of Fame type draft picks in Belichick's early years on top of a lot of other solid picks. A big part of the first 3 Super Bowls along with some of the talent already on the team and some good FA picks ups.

The great drafts from 2009 - 2012 really lifted us during the last few Super Bowl's as guys like Edleman, Gronk, McCourty, Hightower, Chung, Jones, Solder, etc.. were all on the upswing or hitting their prime.

We swung badly in 2016 - 2017. The only starter from those drafts is Joe Thuney and he is average at best. Still hope for D. Wise to pan out. I really hope 2018 was a return to form for Bill. We need to see him nail the next few drafts.

I think you’re actually undervaluing some players from 2000-2014. Mayo was definitely a pro bowl caliber player, as was Vollmer, and Edelman was voted as a Top 100 player by peers. Slater has been all-pro multiple years. On the next edition, Hightower is definitely in the pro bowl category while Garoppolo, considering his position, may very well become the most valuable draft pick of all of them.

 

[Boomer B]

I think you’re actually undervaluing some players from 2000-2014. Mayo was definitely a pro bowl caliber player, as was Vollmer, and Edelman was voted as a Top 100 player by peers. Slater has been all-pro multiple years. On the next edition, Hightower is definitely in the pro bowl category while Garoppolo, considering his position, may very well become the most valuable draft pick of all of them.

While I do actually agree with much of what you said, when I listed them, I wanted to take a lot of the “opinion” out of it, so while we know the true value of a guy like Edelman, I didn’t list him as a Pro Bowl player unless he’s actually made more then 1 Pro Bowl.

 

[fightingirish595]

And Brady doesn’t come close to sniffing 5 rings with another coach.

true. I think it goes both ways personally. No one manages the cap better than New England. And it isn’t close

 

[bigballas]

And Brady doesn’t come close to sniffing 5 rings with another coach.

what if Brady were drafted by say the Steelers? Take out whatever quarterback they've had since then and how much you value Brady's value over their QB that year and maybe that gets us close to an answer? or you think Brady value/skill set to a teem is in same tier as Roethlisberger?

same principle, does Belichick draft a different quaterback and get close?

 

[luuked]

You really can’t be serious with this one. You want a mulligan on that? As much as I didn’t like Jones’ disappearing act, there’s no question he is better than Flowers.

Of course I am serious.

And you and the board idiot that wanted Amendola gone for years because he has no clue how to evaluate players need to realize how to properly read sentences but I said "better for the Patriots" not overall better. Flowers is a better scheme fit than Jones because he is more versatile than Jones. He is not as good as a pure pass rusher but that role doesn't really exist here if you want to get to a second contract.

All of you see things so much in absolute things when you need to see the roster building through the prism of "value". What is a player bringing to the table, what is his projected role relative to what the market will pay for him.

 

[luuked]

Rex Burkhead

Dion Lewis

Total guaranteed at signing is nearly the same.

Burkhead came a lot cheaper. That is the reality. But you can come up with new metrics. Can't wait for you to use money per snap and then blame the coaching staff for him getting injured. Because we all know it is coming.

He hasn’t played 16 games since 2013. A handful of games? Try 11 games missed in the 3 previous years.

He missed 13 games in his first 5 years as a player. That is "a handful" and not much by any metric. Especially for LBs.

You’re an idiot if you think that was a good return for Chandler Jones. You are an even bigger idiot if you think Flowers is a better player than Jones.

The reality is that we got a second round pick for one year of a player that would have not gotten extended, saved a fair amount of cap room AND won a title in the same year. So we upgraded the return by almost 2 rounds and a year IF we had even gotten a comp pick in return for him. You should turn off the radio and use your brain to evaluate trades like that.

But please tell me what they should have done ? Extended a player they clearly didnt plan to extend ? Wait out the year and get a pick about 60 slots farther down ? Yeah if they kept him maybe they would have won the SB that year.

Flowers is a better fit in FOR THE PATRIOTS because he is more versatile which is exactly what I wrote. Nobody is saying Flowers is a better pure edge rusher. But the bottomline is that Flowers contributed more in one postseason than Jones did in his entire career here for considerably less money than it would have taken to keep him.

In reality the staff correctly projected that Flowers will fill the shoes of Jones for less money and so they got more out of Jones that they would have if they kept him for another year.

 

[luuked]

what if Brady were drafted by say the Steelers? Take out whatever quarterback they've had since then and how much you value Brady's value over their QB that year and maybe that gets us close to an answer? or you think Brady value/skill set to a teem is in same tier as Roethlisberger?

same principle, does Belichick draft a different quaterback and get close?

Why are we even talking about this **** ? We have the perfect symbiosis of QB and coach -- both GOATs -- and people here just want to jerk off about who is more important. Who gives a **** ? Let them work off each other and fuel another and enjoy the historic run they have produced.

 

[oceansizer]

Of course BB has made some mistakes but he is just a human being. Successful coaches are obliged to be controversial and make risky decisions. Some of them were missed but BB is still a phenomenal coach,the best in the business.I doubt if someone being in Belichick's shoes should be so successful.Having only two (TB12,Gronk) superstars he is still at the top.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Of course I am serious.

And you and the board idiot that wanted Amendola gone for years because he has no clue how to evaluate players need to realize how to properly read sentences but I said "better for the Patriots" not overall better. Flowers is a better scheme fit than Jones because he is more versatile than Jones. He is not as good as a pure pass rusher but that role doesn't really exist here if you want to get to a second contract.

All of you see things so much in absolute things when you need to see the roster building through the prism of "value". What is a player bringing to the table, what is his projected role relative to what the market will pay for him.

I think you may be mixing me up with someone else because I’ve been on this board for less than a year. Did Bill say he traded Jones due to being a bad scheme fit as you claim?

Flowers would’ve been a better compliment to Jones than being the main guy.

 

[luuked]

I think you may be mixing me up with someone else because I’ve been on this board for less than a year. Did Bill say he traded Jones due to being a bad scheme fit as you claim?

Flowers would’ve been a better compliment to Jones than being the main guy.

The board idiot I am referring to is the OP of this thread. Obviously not you.

The Jones conversation has been going on forever. He was great on a rookie contract but would have been overpaid at market rate for what his role would have been here. That is what it boils down to.

People see stats in Arizona and are like "see that is what we could have had" when in reality our DEs play considerably different than Arizona and he would not have been in a situation to be so prolific.

 

[Coolade2]

Just heard Gasper yapping about how pats "not investing high round draft capital" in receiver position... To support Brady...

Um do you count Patterson(1) Dorsett(1) and Gordon (2)... High rounders..!!!

 

[upstater1]

When I looked at this, it's not as bad as I thought. Huge misses on Easley and Cyrus Jones, but otherwise average.

It's the lack of picks that bugs me, all the trades that amount to nothing, and also Roger effin Goodell taking away a #1.

Easley and Cyrus are bad tho. No doubt.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Just heard Gasper yapping about how pats "not investing high round draft capital" in receiver position... To support Brady...

Um do you count Patterson(1) Dorsett(1) and Gordon (2)... High rounders..!!!

I think their reluctance to support the receiver position through the draft is very philosophical. Virtually no one coming out of college has needed to understand defenses and make route adjustments that are even close to the level of complexity required. They got burned when they traded up to draft Chad Jackson, and I really believe that changed the way they view wide receivers. We've seen them go through so many WRs over the years, many of whom are long time league veterans, who themselves couldn't grasp the concepts of the offense. To draft a player in the first round who is already dealing with a high risk of not being able to understand the system, in addition to all the other risks that comes with any draft pick, is why you're seeing them gamble on buy-low free agents instead of elite talent.

It's interesting that Patterson is in the discussion because a lot of people on this board wanted the Patriots to draft him in the first round, but I think it's clear now why that wouldn't have been a good pick.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think their reluctance to support the receiver position through the draft is very philosophical. Virtually no one coming out of college has needed to understand defenses and make route adjustments that are even close to the level of complexity required. They got burned when they traded up to draft Chad Jackson, and I really believe that changed the way they view wide receivers. We've seen them go through so many WRs over the years, many of whom are long time league veterans, who themselves couldn't grasp the concepts of the offense. To draft a player in the first round who is already dealing with a high risk of not being able to understand the system, in addition to all the other risks that comes with any draft pick, is why you're seeing them gamble on buy-low free agents instead of elite talent.

It's interesting that Patterson is in the discussion because a lot of people on this board wanted the Patriots to draft him in the first round, but I think it's clear now why that wouldn't have been a good pick.

If the offense is too goddamn complex for a college WR to learn and the NEP are shying away from drafting them for that reason, why not simplify it so it enables them to cast a wide net for talented receivers to contribute sooner than later (or never).

Clearly what is happening is they arent drafting them and relying on NFL WR FAs and castoffs to perform as the learning curve is not as steep.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

If the offense is too goddamn complex for a college WR to learn and the NEP are shying away from drafting them for that reason, why not simplify it so it enables them to cast a wide net for talented receivers to contribute sooner than later (or never).

Clearly what is happening is they arent drafting them and relying on NFL WR FAs and castoffs to perform as the learning curve is not as steep.

If the player is that talented, I think they'd simplify the role. Despite what Belichick said about Moss being a very smart player, the fact is he ran a pretty limited route tree, but it didn't matter much because he was so good. I imagine the same may be true of Gordon, that he can create so much separation that Brady wants him on the field regardless of whether or not he can dot every i and cross every t. Having guys with off-the-charts athleticism, like Moss or Gordon, will add value to any offense, including the Patriots, as just running deep routes alone will put defenses on their heels with the motto: "You know what we're going to run, but that doesn't mean you can stop it." So, I'll modify my previous statement. I think if the Patriots had a shot at a truly elite talent, like a sure-fire top 5 pick, they would probably pull the trigger. As some have pointed out, though, when you get into the second half of round one, the actual talent level from picks 20-60 is often pretty similar and lacks obvious all-pro talent.