JETS will Pursuit Samuel HARD

[shmessy]

Hindsight is 20/20. Sure, a #1 was a lot to give up for Branch, but if it was a #2 it would have seemed like a steal. The fact that Branch has been hurt so much since wasn't really knowable at the time.

I would argue there were far worse NFL moves this decade. The Raiders received a 4th rounder for Randy Moss, who promptly went out and broke the single-season TD record.

The difference is Deion Branch is Deion Branch and Randy Moss is Randy Moss.

Just like Marcus Trufant, Champ Bailey, etc. are themselves and Asante Samuel is a B+ CB who only can play "his side" of the field instead of shutting down the opposing #1 WR whereever he may be.

I see him as an excellent BALLHAWK. Sort of this decade's version of Terrell Buckley in the 90's.

 

[Metaphors]

I think you could argue that finding good CB's is now MORE important than ever b/c of the rule enforcement. or that the skill set has simply changes. before you could find guys to play physical and rough WR's up, now you need guys with better pure coverage skills.

My point is that those skills are not enough to be left alone on an island with Moss, Welker, Chad Johnson, Wayne, Braylon, Fitzgerald, Boldin, etc. If a corner can't be left alone without help, why pay him like he can lock down a receiver or one side of the field.

I would rather pay a youngster with potential and surround him with a solid safety and a pressure DE/OLB...which are easier to find. I have the same issue with linebackers that need to be unblocked to be effective (Ray-Ray of recent years). So I have to pay you an amazing amount of money AND get you an expensive bodyguard up front to keep you clean? No thanks.

 

[Watson's IQ]

The difference is Deion Branch is Deion Branch and Randy Moss is Randy Moss.

Just like Marcus Trufant, Champ Bailey, etc. are themselves and Asante Samuel is a B+ CB who only can play "his side" of the field instead of shutting down the opposing #1 WR whereever he may be.

I see him as an excellent BALLHAWK. Sort of this decade's version of Terrell Buckley in the 90's.

Yes, I see what you mean there. He is a ballhawk, and that's always been his game. I think his coverage has improved a lot this year and last, and I think stats like the ones done at Football Outsiders bear that out, though I'll have to check later. I personally like that BB doesn't have him trail the best receiver around the field, but that might just be personal preference. Most #1 receivers play on the right, so it doesn't come up that much (though it will this week).

 

[shmessy]

I disagree to a certain extent, because I think with the new PI rules, there are a lot fewer guys in the game who you can call true shutdown corners. Maybe none.

What Samuel does well, no one does better. Mainly recognize and jump routes. He used to freelance a lot earlier in his career, and does sometimes still, but his coverage has improved a lot.

I think he had a fine year coverage wise, and the stats bear that out, maybe not the interceptions but otherwise.

If he's not top-tier, than I don't really know who you're putting up there. That said, he's not a shutdown corner by any stretch.

That last sentence, I agree with. He's very good, don't get me wrong. However, he's not "cap-busting" great.

You write, "He's not a shutdown corner by any stretch". Well, if he isn't a shutdown corner, why throw $8 million/year at him? I don't quite get that.

As we all know, Belioli give dollar values to each player and position. This year, with their situation, they felt he was worth franchising. I honestly hope the NYJ's overpay for this guy and regret it while Belioli get 2 very good CB's for $3 million/year each.

 

[BelichickFan]

I think stats like the ones done at Football Outsiders bear that out, though I'll have to check later.

His yards per attempt against are VERY good, it was mentioned in the SD-NE preview - do you know how to find the DB stats on the FO site ? I can't find them.

 

[Metaphors]

I honestly hope the NYJ's overpay for this guy and regret it while Belioli get 2 very good CB's for $3 million/year each.

Or a couple of rookie CB's (think Wilson and Asante in 2003) on the cheap and a monster hybrid DE/OLB that allows the youngsters to only have to cover for 2 seconds (before the QB gets killed).

 

[makewayhomer]

He's a good, second-tier CB. IMO, he's worth $4-5 million/ year.

all the advanced metrics say otherwise. his success rate and yards allowed/pass are elite

here are the stats through week 13, courtesy of football outsiders

Best Success Rate

Charles Woodson, GB: 70%
Roderick Hood, ARI: 66%
Fakhir Brown, STL: 65%
Mike McKenzie, NO: 64%
Anthony Henry, DAL: 63%
Jabari Greer, BUF: 63%
Dunta Robinson, HOU: 63%
Richard Marshall, CAR: 63%
Champ Bailey, DEN: 63%
Will Allen, MIA: 62%
Asante Samuel, NE: 62%

Best Yards per Pass

Roderick Hood, ARI: 4.3
Asante Samuel, NE: 4.5
Will Allen, MIA: 4.5
Terrence Newman, DAL: 4.7
Jabari Greer, BUF: 5.0
Terrence McGee, BUF: 5.0
Mike McKenzie, NO: 5.5
Tye Hill, STL: 5.8
Jason Craft, NO: 5.9
Anthony Henry, DAL: 6.0
Deshea Townsend, PIT: 6.0
Jarrod Bush, GB: 6.0

also, I think we should stop acting like Asante is just the product of an amazing system. the Pats defense is good, no doubt, but it's far from amazing. and you could argue he's as responsible for that as he benefits from that

also I have the 2006 #'s at home, I'm pretty sure Asante was just as good in 2006

 

[Zeus]

Wow - what a surprise! Jets front office cretins float a story days before the Super Bowl intended to drive a wedge between Samuel and the team.

Can you say tampering? No way - this hasn't happened since Deion Branch ...

 

[Watson's IQ]

That last sentence, I agree with. He's very good, don't get me wrong. However, he's not "cap-busting" great.

You write, "He's not a shutdown corner by any stretch". Well, if he isn't a shutdown corner, why throw $8 million/year at him? I don't quite get that.

As we all know, Belioli give dollar values to each player and position. This year, with their situation, they felt he was worth franchising. I honestly hope the NYJ's overpay for this guy and regret it while Belioli get 2 very good CB's for $3 million/year each.

Because as I said earlier, I don't think the term "shutdown" corner is even applicable in the NFL anymore with the new PI rules.

See the stats above, those were the ones I was referring to from Football Outsiders. Asante is "elite" now, by what the current definition of elite is, whether he's good enough to deserve that kind of salary is another matter.

 

[Jimke]

That last sentence, I agree with. He's very good, don't get me wrong. However, he's not "cap-busting" great.

You write, "He's not a shutdown corner by any stretch". Well, if he isn't a shutdown corner, why throw $8 million/year at him? I don't quite get that.

As we all know, Belioli give dollar values to each player and position. This year, with their situation, they felt he was worth franchising. I honestly hope the NYJ's overpay for this guy and regret it while Belioli get 2 very good CB's for $3 million/year each.

I don't think the Pats will get two very good cornerbacks at $3 million

each. They might get a couple of Randall Gay or Chad Scott type

players for this price. Based on the performances of the Pats against

Feeley, Boller, and Eli Manning, the Pats need an upgrade at cornerback

not a downgrade.

 

[BelichickFan]

here are the stats through week 13, courtesy of football outsiders

Can you tell me where you found those ? Is it in the pay section ? I can't find them

 

[makewayhomer]

Can you tell me where you found those ? Is it in the pay section ? I can't find them

I usually have to google to find anything from their site, using "football outsiders xxxxx xxxxx"

their organization is really terrible

anyways

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/12/21/ramblings/stat-analysis/5920/

 

[BelichickFan]

I usually have to google to find anything from their site, using "football outsiders xxxxx xxxxx"

their organization is really terrible

anyways

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/12/21/ramblings/stat-analysis/5920/

Thanks, I was hoping for the entire database to see Hobbs and where the NYG guys rank (their individual numbers are in last week's NFCCG preview) but that list is still interesting to look at.

 

[shakadave]

rotoworld

i really hope we can resign him anyway possible.

Re-sign! Samuel is definitely too young to resign.

 

[Metaphors]

Asante is "elite" now, by what the current definition of elite is, whether he's good enough to deserve that kind of salary is another matter.

Salary is the whole point. Cornerback is just the wrong place to be investing your money...

Get a $10 million CB, teams throw away from him
Get a $6 million CB for the other side, teams attack with the slot receiver, TE and RB screen.
Get a $5 million FS and $5 cover LB and now you've got it covered

Of course, you are now Denver or San Francisco and wondering where it all went wrong.

 

[makewayhomer]

Thanks, I was hoping for the entire database to see Hobbs and where the NYG guys rank (their individual numbers are in last week's NFCCG preview) but that list is still interesting to look at.

yeah me too. it's pretty manual to compile these #'s I think, so they tend to do complicated stuff like that in the offseason, or put it in their book Pro Football Prospectus

hopefully they will put a full list up sometime soon.

 

[Watson's IQ]

Salary is the whole point. Cornerback is just the wrong place to be investing your money...

Get a $10 million CB, teams throw away from him
Get a $6 million CB for the other side, teams attack with the slot receiver, TE and RB screen.
Get a $5 million FS and $5 cover LB and now you've got it covered

Of course, you are now Denver or San Francisco and wondering where it all went wrong.

I agree with you. I wasn't trying to appear as if I was arguing for re-signing Asante. I'm actually in favor of letting him walk if he demands top-flight money (which we know he will). I was just trying to counter the notion that Samuel was a "system" player, which is what many around here will say if/when he does walk. He was definitely that previously, but he's proved himself on his own now, IMO.

I still wouldn't spend the money.

 

[makewayhomer]

Salary is the whole point. Cornerback is just the wrong place to be investing your money...

Get a $10 million CB, teams throw away from him
Get a $6 million CB for the other side, teams attack with the slot receiver, TE and RB screen.
Get a $5 million FS and $5 cover LB and now you've got it covered

Of course, you are now Denver or San Francisco and wondering where it all went wrong.

NFL GM's disagree. here are the new franchise figures

Quarterback 10.730
Cornerback 9.465
Defensive End 8.879
Linebacker 8.065
Wide Receiver 7.848
Offensive Lineman 7.455
Running Back 6.538
Defensive Tackle 6.363
Tight End 4.522
Safety 4.396
Kicker/Punter 2.541

obv. this is going to vary by team, etc, but in general NFL GM's think the top CB's are worth a lot. now, you can see "they are less important b/c of the CB rule enforcement" but I that was done after the 2003 season. it's now been 4 years since then, so I think that is mostly reflected in the top players salaries.

now, that doesn't mean you should go out and spend all your money on CB's, b/c balance is key. it does mean you should have good talent there, regardless of how you acquire it and how much you spend on it

 

[Watson's IQ]

obv. this is going to vary by team, etc, but in general NFL GM's think the top CB's are worth a lot. now, you can see "they are less important b/c of the CB rule enforcement" but I that was done after the 2003 season. it's now been 4 years since then, so I think that is mostly reflected in the top players salaries.

now, that doesn't mean you should go out and spend all your money on CB's, b/c balance is key. it does mean you should have good talent there, regardless of how you acquire it and how much you spend on it

You're assuming that NFL GMs would be able to make that adjustment just because they wanted to. Even if the value of a top-flight CB in actual on-the-field terms is diminished by the new rules, that doesn't place the high end talent at any less of a premium.

The elite CBs aren't going to suddenly want to start charging less for their services because of the new PI rules, and teams aren't going to stop searching for premium CB talent.

 

[makewayhomer]

You're assuming that NFL GMs would be able to make that adjustment just because they wanted to.

yes, thats their job

Even if the value of a top-flight CB in actual on-the-field terms is diminished by the new rules, that doesn't place the high end talent at any less of a premium.

sure it does. if a position is less valuable, the best players at that position will make less money, especially in the salary cap nfl where there is finite money to be spread amongst the team. this is why punters make less money than quarterbacks - they are a whole lot less valuable. but if the NFL suddenly started awarding points for "punts over 60 yards" and "punts downed inside the 10" then the top punters would suddenly be worth a whole lot more, relative to everyone else and absolutely

The elite CBs aren't going to suddenly want to start charging less for their services because of the new PI rules, and teams aren't going to stop searching for premium CB talent.

CB's don't charge for their services, teams pay them what they feel they are worth