January 15 2010 Offseason and Mock

[mayoclinic]

While I agree with you all that Spiller is a playmaker and would love to have him IMO pass rush is too critial to ignore.

Our defense needs to appy pressure and IF we went mostly DE/LB's in the first 2 rounds I can't see anyone complaining.

We do need a updgrade at both RB and WR as well as OG but pass rush
should be BB's first priority.

Maybe there's a FA we can pick up or grab one on day 2.

I don't think I ignored it. Dunlap should be able to step in day 1 at DE if not OLB and generate pressure. Lane is a solid developmental prospect who should be a future starter. Most importantly, Dansby should help get pressure up the middle, which may be more critical to our success than anything. Pressure up the middle will prevent the QB from stepping up in the pocket when the pressure comes from the edges. That's happened far too many times against us, including when Eli Manning connected with David Tyree in the 2008 Super Bowl.

 

[carolinatony]

I don't think I ignored it. Dunlap should be able to step in day 1 at DE if not OLB and generate pressure. Lane is a solid developmental prospect who should be a future starter. Most importantly, Dansby should help get pressure up the middle, which may be more critical to our success than anything. Pressure up the middle will prevent the QB from stepping up in the pocket when the pressure comes from the edges. That's happened far too many times against us, including when Eli Manning connected with David Tyree in the 2008 Super Bowl.

Your right Mayo but do you see BB taking a RB in the first?

 

[Brady to Brown]

I think what you have done here is what is needed going forward.

The thing is I don't see much "value" in it. Lets try not to kill ourselves as Bill trades back and out of the first round to gain more value in rounds 3 - 7 and trading into next year instead of moving up to grab some talent this year.

Also several of the free agents you name will cost big $, not much "value" in that.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

I don't think I ignored it. Dunlap should be able to step in day 1 at DE if not OLB and generate pressure. Lane is a solid developmental prospect who should be a future starter. Most importantly, Dansby should help get pressure up the middle, which may be more critical to our success than anything. Pressure up the middle will prevent the QB from stepping up in the pocket when the pressure comes from the edges. That's happened far too many times against us, including when Eli Manning connected with David Tyree in the 2008 Super Bowl.

This is an excellent point and I definitely agree. I believe it was Brian Baldinger who broke down our defense on NFL Network after the Broncos loss and said our defense was out of date and that our theory of blitzing was bringing an extra guy outside and the center would just slide out and pick him up b/c there was no real threat coming up the middle. This gave Orton a ton of time and allowed the WR's time to run their routes and get open. Dansby and Mayo inside would allow us to wreak some havoc inside.

Then again, Mayo and Guyton consistently dropped backed into soft zone coverage this year. I think a lot of our struggles to create pressure up the middle also stem from scheme issues. We don't play like the Ravens where they'd have Ray Lewis shooting through the A-Gap on a blitz. We try to control our gaps more rather than penetrate them. I cannot stand this style of defense, and I hope when BB said he will look into scheme changes he was talking about maybe going to a 1-gap system. You create more pressure, disrupt more plays, and the players would definitely enjoy it more.

 

[zimmy]

Is this mock and off season supposed to be realistic or just an ideal scenario? There is no way we sign Wilfork, Dansby, Bodden, Bryant to all that money. Also where is the extension for Tom Brady which should be at the top of the list?

I think we end up franchising Wilfork, and re-signing Brady and Bodden. Mankins gets the transition tag and we dump Thomas. We will probably bring in some low to mid level free agents to add competition at outside linebacker and concentrate on the draft

 

[SunnyDenmark]

....
The thing is I don't see much "value" in it. Lets try not to kill ourselves as Bill trades back and out of the first round to gain more value in rounds 3 - 7 and trading into next year instead of moving up to grab some talent this year.

Also several of the free agents you name will cost big $, not much "value" in that.

My thoughts exactly. Just because there probably won't be a cap next season, I don't foresee Bill turning us into the Yankees. Same with trading up into 1st round (with ATL or whomever). Little value especially when it is a deep draft. I don't think it is a coincidence that we have three 2nd round picks in this (supposidly) deep draft. Use the cheap second round picks to draft some falling 1st round talent and use the savings to extend our own FA's.

But great effort Mayo and lots of interesting ideas to chew on and debate.

 

[mayoclinic]

Is this mock and off season supposed to be realistic or just an ideal scenario? There is no way we sign Wilfork, Dansby, Bodden, Bryant to all that money. Also where is the extension for Tom Brady which should be at the top of the list?

I think we end up franchising Wilfork, and re-signing Brady and Bodden. Mankins gets the transition tag and we dump Thomas. We will probably bring in some low to mid level free agents to add competition at outside linebacker and concentrate on the draft

My intention was that it was to be aggressive, but not unrealistic. I based part of my assumptions on Michael Lombardi's 2 statements from the National Football Post: (1) that the Pats were among the lowest teams in the NFL in terms of current committed money for 2010, and (2) that they Pats were going to be extremely aggressive in FA (internal and external) and the draft to shake things up and upgrade talent.

IF those 2 statements are true, and especially if 2010 is an uncapped year, then we have plenty of room to do all that I've outlined:

- Franchise Wilfork or preferably extend him - something line 4 years @ $40M with $20M guaranteed ($8M/year)
- Extend Leigh Bodden - something like 4 years @ $24M with $10M guaranteed ($6M/year)
- Extend Ben Watson - maybe 2-4 years at around $3-4M/year. If that one falls through, it won't be the end of the world.
- Tender Gostkowski at the 1st round level.
- Tender Mankins at the 1st and 3rd round level, or extend him - something like 4-5 years at $24-30M (around $6M/year)
- Sign UFA ILB Karlos Dansby - something like 5 years at $35M.
- Sign UFA WR Antonio Bryant - something like 4 years at $28M. If this is too expensive, then Deion Branch should be a relatively inexpensive option.
- Sign UFA RB Willis McGahee - something like 3 years at $12-14M.

That should involve roughly $40M for 2010. Not chump change by any means, but not undoable. I'm assumable an extension for Brady is in the works as well. And there would be money saved on cuts and players who aren't re-signed as well.

I've tried to outline some alternatives, and some places to trim cost if the total bill is too much. But my intention was that the plan should be aggressive but not totally unrealistic.

 

[jsull87]

love the ideas and. my thoughts:

1.) i agree i don't think bringing in an old leader like willie is the key i think it's people within the organisation standing up and being leaders that needs to happen.
2.) i personally wouldn't do the spiller trade if we kept faulk and then got mcgahee. because that would leave us with maroney morris mcgahee then faulk for 3rd downs.
3.) not doing that trade leaves us for a 2nd round WR and then whatever with the other 2nd.
4.) to like the trying to get bryant thing tho

 

[SunnyDenmark]

My intention was that it was to be aggressive, but not unrealistic. I based part of my assumptions on Michael Lombardi's 2 statements from the National Football Post: (1) that the Pats were among the lowest teams in the NFL in terms of current committed money for 2010, and (2) that they Pats were going to be extremely aggressive in FA (internal and external) and the draft to shake things up and upgrade talent.

IF those 2 statements are true, and especially if 2010 is an uncapped year, then we have plenty of room to do all that I've outlined:

- Franchise Wilfork or preferably extend him - something line 4 years @ $40M with $20M guaranteed ($8M/year)
- Extend Leigh Bodden - something like 4 years @ $24M with $10M guaranteed ($6M/year)
- Extend Ben Watson - maybe 2-4 years at around $3-4M/year. If that one falls through, it won't be the end of the world.
- Tender Gostkowski at the 1st round level.
- Tender Mankins at the 1st and 3rd round level, or extend him - something like 4-5 years at $24-30M (around $6M/year)
- Sign UFA ILB Karlos Dansby - something like 5 years at $35M.
- Sign UFA WR Antonio Bryant - something like 4 years at $28M. If this is too expensive, then Deion Branch should be a relatively inexpensive option.
- Sign UFA RB Willis McGahee - something like 3 years at $12-14M.

That should involve roughly $40M for 2010. Not chump change by any means, but not undoable. I'm assumable an extension for Brady is in the works as well. And there would be money saved on cuts and players who aren't re-signed as well.

I've tried to outline some alternatives, and some places to trim cost if the total bill is too much. But my intention was that the plan should be aggressive but not totally unrealistic.

Wishful thinking my friend. I wish it could be so but... it goes against everything Bill stands for which is value-driven. Year in and out the 'strong middle class ' approach is what this team is built on. Even without the cap the team will not abandon this value approach and spend like crazy. Especially when a new agreement could come into effect within the next year (or not football in 2011). For hypothetical purposes, say the Pats brass (Krafts) give Bill the green light for a 5% increase (over 2009 cap) for player salaries. That would be $127 million X 5% = 133 m. I'll use your calculation of $40 million for those players (above) extended or newly signed (FA's). That would be then 30% of a new salary target for only 8 players (listed above). Bill would unlikely go for such a top heavy (Colts) salary approach. Plus adding in Brady's 2010 salary and you would be paying almost 40% for 9 players salaries.

Even though no salary cap, I would expect the Krafts will agree with Bill on a team salary target for this upcoming season. I would be shocked if we turned into the yankees and spent greater than 5-10% above the 2009 salary cap of 2009.

You can be (per Lombardi) aggressive in FA without trying to buy several top players (Redskin Snyder approach).

I appreciate all your thought on how to improve the roster. Furthermore, your wholistic thinking on upgrading the roster top to bottom. But (sadly) I can't see Bill changing 'his leopard spots' and abandoning his value approach -after all he is an economics major. Hard to retain almost all upcoming Pats FA's, PLUS get several top tier NFL FA's PLUS give Brady a new extension. It would 'break' any modest salary target and be totally out of Bills' character.

 

[mayoclinic]

Wishful thinking my friend. I wish it could be so but... it goes against everything Bill stands for which is value-driven. Year in and out the 'strong middle class ' approach is what this team is built on. Even without the cap the team will not abandon this value approach and spend like crazy. Especially when a new agreement could come into effect within the next year (or not football in 2011). For hypothetical purposes, say the Pats brass (Krafts) give Bill the green light for a 5% increase (over 2009 cap) for player salaries. That would be $127 million X 5% = 133 m. I'll use your calculation of $40 million for those players (above) extended or newly signed (FA's). That would be then 30% of a new salary target for only 8 players (listed above). Bill would unlikely go for such a top heavy (Colts) salary approach. Plus adding in Brady's 2010 salary and you would be paying almost 40% for 9 players salaries.

Even though no salary cap, I would expect the Krafts will agree with Bill on a team salary target for this upcoming season. I would be shocked if we turned into the yankees and spent greater than 5-10% above the 2009 salary cap of 2009.

You can be (per Lombardi) aggressive in FA without trying to buy several top players (Redskin Snyder approach).

I appreciate all your thought on how to improve the roster. Furthermore, your wholistic thinking on upgrading the roster top to bottom. But (sadly) I can't see Bill changing 'his leopard spots' and abandoning his value approach -after all he is an economics major. Hard to retain almost all upcoming Pats FA's, PLUS get several top tier NFL FA's PLUS give Brady a new extension. It would 'break' any modest salary target and be totally out of Bills' character.

I'm not sure there isn't a middle ground between emulating the NY Yankees and being totally "value" driven. Robert Kraft has always said that he will be willing to spend up to the total value of the cap. It's not a question of saving dollars, it's how they're allocated.

Contending for the SB is the ultimate goal of the team. We've lost that goal the past 2 years. Getting back to being a perennial contender may not be compatible with our previous value-based approach.

Minnesota's DL dominated Dallas yesterday, and was the deciding factor in the game. The Jet's defense pretty much shut down one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL yesterday, on the road. Those 2 teams got pretty good "value" for what they've spent.

I think there will be some very heated conversations in Foxboro over the next few weeks as the team decides how to move forward. For me, not being competitive is the only unacceptable choice.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

While I agree with you all that Spiller is a playmaker and would love to have him IMO pass rush is too critial to ignore.

Our defense needs to appy pressure and IF we went mostly DE/LB's in the first 2 rounds I can't see anyone complaining.

But who are these pass rush players that you want to take? And how are you going to fit them into our scheme?

Take Kindle of Texas for instance. Great pass rusher, but Alabama's O-line ate him up on running plays and for all the good his 3 sacks did, he really lost Texas the game with his inability to set a hard edge.

The trick is finding pass rushers that fit our scheme. The very good ones will go early,which is why we need a developmental system more than ever. But for some reason BB does not want to invest the resources in developing players at that position.

 

[JoeShmoe]

I dont think we'll go RB in round one. To be honest Maroney, when he got the run blocking up front did a really good job for us in the middle of the season and I thought they way he got treated was pretty darn poor

Even Barry Sanders couldnt run if 2 defenders are in the backfield when the ball is handed off

I wouldnt move up unless we have a legit shot at someone special who slips

To me first day has to be on the lines

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Your right Mayo but do you see BB taking a RB in the first?

BB is going to take a three down player in the first round. We know this.

And while Spiller may not be considered a traditional 3 down back, consider that Chris Johnson was not considered a three down player as well coming out of college with that sparkling 4.29. Now consider that Spiller will run around a 4.35 plus or minus time and Spiller catches better and willing to pick up the blitz and you see the appeal that Spiller brings.

Add in that Spiller brings huge value on Special teams as a kick returner. With 4 kicks or so returned for TD and you see begin to see what kind of weapon Spiller can be. Plus we know that BB values special teams highly, except for punter for some unknown bizarre BB reasoning.

An ubber fast decisive RB makes a ton of sense because an ubber fast RB's speed can allow a primarily strong pass blocking O-line look like a decent run blocking O Line because the O Line does not have to hold blocks as long.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I dont think we'll go RB in round one. To be honest Maroney, when he got the run blocking up front did a really good job for us in the middle of the season and I thought they way he got treated was pretty darn poor

Even Barry Sanders couldnt run if 2 defenders are in the backfield when the ball is handed off

I wouldnt move up unless we have a legit shot at someone special who slips

To me first day has to be on the lines

Here is the difference between Spiller and Maroney. Spiller is decisive, one cut and he is gone. An O Line blocking for Spiller only 1 guy needs to create a small crease and Spiller's vision and speed does the rest.

With Maroney, you need all five O Line guys executing and sustaining blocks in order for him to gain 4 yards. Asking an O Line to do that on every running play is unrealistic.

Now add in the fact that our OC is worse than horrible and the defense KNOWS when the running plays are coming and suddenly your O Line does not stand a chance. Why? Because our RB is not decisive and seems to lack courage.

There is no doubt in my mind that the first priority is finding a creative OC that uses multiple formations and alignments to create mismatches. O'brien/BB suck toilet water in this regard. At least if we have to endure another year with O'brien calling a vanilla game, we can have a RB that is a better fit for O'brien's vanilla game plan.

 

[mayoclinic]

BB is going to take a three down player in the first round. We know this.

And while Spiller may not be considered a traditional 3 down back, consider that Chris Johnson was not considered a three down player as well coming out of college with that sparkling 4.29. Now consider that Spiller will run around a 4.35 plus or minus time and Spiller catches better and willing to pick up the blitz and you see the appeal that Spiller brings.

Add in that Spiller brings huge value on Special teams as a kick returner. With 4 kicks or so returned for TD and you see begin to see what kind of weapon Spiller can be. Plus we know that BB values special teams highly, except for punter for some unknown bizarre BB reasoning.

An ubber fast decisive RB makes a ton of sense because an ubber fast RB's speed can allow a primarily strong pass blocking O-line look like a decent run blocking O Line because the O Line does not have to hold blocks as long.

I'm not sure what a 3-down running back is like in our offense. We're not going to pound the ball and run 30-40 times/game, that's for sure. But I think there is plenty of room to be creative.

One of the many things that disturbed me this season was that much of the time we either had no RB and it was obvious we were going to pass, or we brought in a RB and predictably ran the ball. I'd love to see a back like Spiller in the backfield most snaps, whenther he's blocking (not sure how Spiller is in this area), running, or catching the ball out of the backfield. Half of his touches could be on non-traditional running plays - screens, short routes using him in the slot, putting him in motion, using him on reverses, etc. Get the ball in his hands and things will happen.

I would love to see us get to the kind of place where the NO offense was this year - having too many weapons to stop. Used properly, Moss, Welker/Edelman, Tate, Watson and a back like Spiller would present an awful lot of weapons. Add in a FA WR like Antonio Bryant and we would have as many weapons for TB as any team in football. With a creative OC, we could be a really good offense.

I think that Spiller could be Felix Jones or Reggie Bush at worst, and Chris Johnson at best. That's enough for me.

 

[mayoclinic]

I should add to my last post that Spiller is the kind of guy you have to pay attention to whenever he's in the game, because if you lose track of him for an instant he could be gone. That alone has a lot of value.

A lot of people bemoaned not getting Percy Harvin last year. If BB could have seriously considered Harvin at 23, then Spiller can be an option at 22. We need someone with the kind of speed, elusiveness, and big play ability that Chris Johnson, Percy Harvin and DeSean Jackson bring to their respective teams. We don't have anyone like that.

 

[mayoclinic]

But who are these pass rush players that you want to take? And how are you going to fit them into our scheme?

Take Kindle of Texas for instance. Great pass rusher, but Alabama's O-line ate him up on running plays and for all the good his 3 sacks did, he really lost Texas the game with his inability to set a hard edge.

The trick is finding pass rushers that fit our scheme. The very good ones will go early,which is why we need a developmental system more than ever. But for some reason BB does not want to invest the resources in developing players at that position.

I agree that we need pass rushers. My solution was to trade up from 42 and 47 so that we could target Spiller and and elite pass rusher in the draft (Dunlap), plus a developmental guy a bit later (Lane).

I agree about needing guys who fit our schemes, which is why I picked guys with size, length and agility. A lot of people get excited about Jerry Hughes, Sergio Kindle and Ricky Sapp, but I don't see those guys having the strength and bulk to set the edge effectively in our scheme. We already have a Ricky Sapp on our team, and he's been on IR for 2 years.

I think that Dunlap, Hardy, Pierre-Paul and Lane are must more interesting pass rushing candidates for the Pats than guys like Hughes, Kindle and Sapp. I think we have a very good chance of getting one of the first 3 of those guys at 22, and Lane in the late 2nd/early 3rd round.

 

[chevss454]

I agree that we need pass rushers. My solution was to trade up from 42 and 47 so that we could target Spiller and and elite pass rusher in the draft (Dunlap), plus a developmental guy a bit later (Lane).

I agree about needing guys who fit our schemes, which is why I picked guys with size, length and agility. A lot of people get excited about Jerry Hughes, Sergio Kindle and Ricky Sapp, but I don't see those guys having the strength and bulk to set the edge effectively in our scheme. We already have a Ricky Sapp on our team, and he's been on IR for 2 years.

I think that Dunlap, Hardy, Pierre-Paul and Lane are must more interesting pass rushing candidates for the Pats than guys like Hughes, Kindle and Sapp. I think we have a very good chance of getting one of the first 3 of those guys at 22, and Lane in the late 2nd/early 3rd round.

Great work.
Spiller is a great talent and would help immensely. I also think the Pats OL (Protect Brady and he will perform) needs help and you have accounted for it. I don't get excited about Kindle being a passrusher much. I do like Jerry Hughes probably more than you do. Cameron Heyward also could fit here. Dunlap (injuries and motor) and JPP (raw and 1 yr wonder) may not be sure-fire hits at this time altho combine performances may be telling.
You have probably seen this but I will post it again just in case.

WalterFootball.com: The NFL Matt Draft - Matt McGuire's NFL Draft Blog

 

[chevss454]

I agree that we need pass rushers. My solution was to trade up from 42 and 47 so that we could target Spiller and and elite pass rusher in the draft (Dunlap), plus a developmental guy a bit later (Lane).

I agree about needing guys who fit our schemes, which is why I picked guys with size, length and agility. A lot of people get excited about Jerry Hughes, Sergio Kindle and Ricky Sapp, but I don't see those guys having the strength and bulk to set the edge effectively in our scheme. We already have a Ricky Sapp on our team, and he's been on IR for 2 years.

I think that Dunlap, Hardy, Pierre-Paul and Lane are must more interesting pass rushing candidates for the Pats than guys like Hughes, Kindle and Sapp. I think we have a very good chance of getting one of the first 3 of those guys at 22, and Lane in the late 2nd/early 3rd round.

What do you think of the possibility of trading the 2011 #1 from the Raiders for 2010 picks?

 

[Jimke]

What do you think of the possibility of trading the 2011 #1 from the Raiders for 2010 picks?

Excellent idea. There is a possibility there will be no NFL

football in 2011.