January 15 2010 Offseason and Mock

[Jimke]

We should know about all the re-signs before free agency begins. We will also know the 2010 rules by then. Once free agency begins, it is unlikely that any of our own UFA's will sign with us.

And yes, then the fun begins.

Last year, Hanson re-signed with us after free agency began.

No other team wanted him.

 

[mgteich]

.................

last year, hanson re-signed with us after free agency began.

No other team wanted him.

 

[Jimke]

Keep your posts coming mayoclinic. I love reading about what

might happen. It's good for skeptics like me.

 

[mgteich]

If I were inclined to trade up, it would be to assure us of a reasonable replacement for Green and Neal. Perhaps we could trade with Dallas securing their 28 and 91 for our 47 and 53. We'd then have our 42 available for a DE/OLB. In any case, we would meet three needs by 42 and still have a 3rd and a 4th.

Of course, the small trade down alternative would have us trading down to 26 or so again and picking up a 4th and a 5th or give our 22 and 118 for #26 and #90 getting back into the 3rd. This would give us 26, 42, 47, 53 and 90. This doesn't count on any picks as a result of trades. This is a deep draft. Perhaps 4 picks in the top 53 will give us a chance of having 3 contributers (plus the 6th round punter we all root for).

 

[borg]

Amazing effort MayoClinic. A couple of points.
You've assembled a very expensive roster...without even addressing a Brady extension. Do you have a total cap number for '10 with this roster. Tying up $19 mill on 3 WRs (Welker, Moss, Bryant) seems unBB like...and how can you double-plus Bryants salary when compared to Welker and his output.
As far as moving up for Spiller...if BB feels that he has to pay this draft price for a quality back, I would rather throw this pick at a sure thing, Jonathan Stewart of Carolina....my binky ...and I've been told that hell will freeze over first.
Moving on, love the Lane pick. I'm very interested on how his offseason roadshow developes. He needs to prove he belongs with the big boys.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Full Pats 7 Round Mock

1(19) CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson (5'11", 195#, 4.30)
1(22) Carlos Dunlap, DE/OLB, Florida (6'6", 270#, 4.65)
2(53) Vladimir Ducasse, OT/OG, UMass (6'5", 328#, 5.20)
3(68) Austen Lane, DE/OLB, Murray St. (6'6", 260#, 4.60)
3(83) Jared Veldheer, OT, Hillsdale (6'8", 315#, 4.80)
5-7 Clifton Geathers, DE, Clemson (6'8" 290#, 4.95) - big man with high upside who has the potential to be good at the 5-technique
5-7 Tony Moeaki, TE, Iowa (6'4", 250#, 4.85) - good all-purpose TE and special teams contributor
5-7 Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green (6', 205#) - incredibly productive college WR who just makes plays
5-7 Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan (6'5", 230#) - an upgrade over Chris Hanson

I think this mock addresses a ton of needs. Spiller is a playmaker and after the combine will probably be the second faster player in the league. Because he split time for three years with James Davis,he has a lot more tread left on the tires than most college starting RBs. If BB is worried about saving dollars, he could not resign Faulk and leave Faulk on the speed dial in case Spiller gets hurt.

Dunlap addresses a huge hole at OLB. I saw that CBS had him listed at 278 pounds and I expect him to weigh around 270 at the combine. With the addition of Lane, you have an immediate starter in Dunlap and a developmental prospect in Lane. BB has needed this for a longtime. I think that after a year or two of intense coaching and weight room work, Lane projects as a starter in the base defense.

Ducasse and Veldheer,when added to Vollmer, Mankins and Koppen give us a donut shaped O-Line, but one with tremendous potential two years down the road. I am sure Spiller would love to run behind this massive wall.

Geathers is a nice developmental prospect,although I think he played at South Carolina not Clemson. His brother Robert already plays for Indy,so at least he knows what he has to do to make a team.

Moeaki only weight 250 pounds, but I see lots of room for him to grow in strength and technique. If Watson is not resigned, Baker could become the primary receiving TE and Moeaki could develop into a solid blocking TE.

Barnes would be a steal, if he runs well. Nice hands and knows how to get open.

I have Zoltan targeted as a late round pick or UDFA. He seems to me to be an excellent upgrade over Hansen. Can Zoltan hold for extra points and FG tries? If not he will need a crash course in TC.

overall great effort.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

#117 - Eric Decker WR

1st Choice - Kevin Walter WR

Trade

Randy Moss (third round pick 2010)

So, in other words, you're saying that in your best-case scenario the Patriots' top four receivers heading into 2010 should be (in some order) Decker, Edelman, Walter, and Welker?

I'll pass.

 

[carolinatony]

Great work Mayo.
I LOVE IT especially the Willie signing who can provide some leadership we were missing imo.

YOU ADDRESSED ALL OUR NEEDS .....wonder if BB will.
Its time for us to draft for NEED.

4. Pats re-sign UFA DE/OLB Willie McGinest to provide some veteran leadership and help develop some young pass rushers. This is a low cost move akin to the Junior Seau situation

 

[mayoclinic]

Amazing effort MayoClinic. A couple of points.
You've assembled a very expensive roster...without even addressing a Brady extension. Do you have a total cap number for '10 with this roster. Tying up $19 mill on 3 WRs (Welker, Moss, Bryant) seems unBB like...and how can you double-plus Bryants salary when compared to Welker and his output.
As far as moving up for Spiller...if BB feels that he has to pay this draft price for a quality back, I would rather throw this pick at a sure thing, Jonathan Stewart of Carolina....my binky ...and I've been told that hell will freeze over first.
Moving on, love the Lane pick. I'm very interested on how his offseason roadshow developes. He needs to prove he belongs with the big boys.

Nice thoughts.

For the record, I love Jonathan Stewart and would be thrilled to get him. I just don't know how to do it. I doubt Carolina would trade him at all, and certainly not without our giving up a ton when we have too many other areas to address. If you want a power back, then Jonathan Dwyer seems to be a "poor man's Stewart" to me.

As far as cost goes, I'm assuming an uncapped year for 2010, and I'm not sure the cost will be that prohibitive. Mike Lombardi says we are currently one of the lowest teams in the league in terms of committed money. Obviously, re-signing our own personnel will chew up a lot of dough, but I still think there's room for some moves.

The move I think is most important is Dansby. Get a veteran leader in the middle of the defense to firm up the middle and allow Mayo to move to SILB, and the pass rushers will sort themselves out.

As far as WR, Deion Branch is a low-cost alternative. But given that Welker may be out for half or all of 2010, I think that bringing in someone who is more of a #2 than a #3 WR will have benefits. In addition, I could envision a possible scenario of Moss moving on after his contract expires in 2010, and bringing in a high rookie like AJ Green or Jonathan Baldwin. Having two established guys like Welker and Bryant would take pressure off of a rookie to produce immediately in a big way.

Extending Brady is obviously critical, and I didn't mean to imply that it should be neglected. I doubt he's ever out of the FO's thoughts for very long. But I do think that as early as 2012 we might want to think about truly developing a player to take over from Brady, probably somewhere around 2015.

 

[KevinFaulk-33]

I want Ray Edwards as FA!

 

[carolinatony]

Nice thoughts.

For the record, I love Jonathan Stewart and would be thrilled to get him. I just don't know how to do it. I doubt Carolina would trade him at all, and certainly not without our giving up a ton when we have too many other areas to address. If you want a power back, then Jonathan Dwyer seems to be a "poor man's Stewart" to me.




Mayo- Believe me when I say Carolina is not going to trade him. Fox runs the ball and that's all the Panthers have. One back can't carry the load.

Next year shoulg be interesting because he will go back to Jake again which will cause some issues. They looked good at the end of the year when he was hurt.
All they have going for them is a running game and a solid defense IF/WHEN Peppers decides to play. They really do not have a passing game.

 

[mayoclinic]

Some comments in response to feedback so far:

1. I'm personally not so much caught up in specific players as trying to address what I see as needs. I've picked players (1) who I thought would be realistically available, (2) who I thought fit certain scheme and size/speed requirements, (3) who I had a personal bias towards, and (4) who people on this board indicated a preference towards based on some of the polls that have been floated on the draft board. CJ Spiller was the most popular playmaking RB in those polls, and Carlos Dunlap the most popular strongside pass rusher. I could have gone for Jerry Hughes or Sergio Kindle at 22, or towards a power rusher such as Jonathan Dwyer, but I tried to address what I saw as priorities and to stimulate discussion.

2. One very strong bias that I have is to use this draft to upgrade talent and add some playmakers, and not to backfill holes due to personnel losses. I'm assuming we use a 2nd round pick on a RG to replace or succeed Stephen Neal, but otherwise I'd be personally very pissed if we end up using picks to replace folks (e.g., letting Ben Watson walk and then drafting an athletic TE to replace him; letting Vince Wilfork walk without compensation and drafting an NT to replace him). We need to upgrade our talent in some key areas, and we can't do that if we're spinning our tails filling holes from losses to our current roster.

3. I have a personal bias (perhaps it can be called a weakness) towards guys who I see as having a very high "upside". Spiller, Dunlap, Ducasse, Lane, Veldheer and Geathers are all high upside guys. But there's some risk involved, and you could certainly make an argument in favor of some guys with less upside but who might be a bit safer. Jonathan Dwyer is a very safe back who could immediately be productive. Mike Johnson is a very safe offensive guard. Some of my choices are directed with 2011 and beyond in mind as well as 2010. For example, I could see an OL with Vollmer and Mankins on the left side and Veldheer and Ducasse on the right being exceptional in a couple of years. I could see a RB corps of Willis McGahee and CJ Spiller dividing time and Maroney for depth as being a big improvement over what we currently have. I could see a long-term WR corps consisting of a 2011 rookie like AJ Green or Jonathan Baldwin, Wes Welker, Antonio Bryant and Brandon Tate as extraordinary.

Anyway, thanks for being forgiving with this rough effort, and keep the comments coming.

 

[mayoclinic]

I want Ray Edwards as FA!

I'd be happy to get him as an UFA, but he was drafted in 2006 so I assume he will be a RFA.

 

[KevinFaulk-33]

I'd be happy to get him as an UFA, but he was drafted in 2006 so I assume he will be a RFA.

Oh... You're right... I haven't tought at that...

 

[mayoclinic]

I think this mock addresses a ton of needs. Spiller is a playmaker and after the combine will probably be the second faster player in the league. Because he split time for three years with James Davis,he has a lot more tread left on the tires than most college starting RBs. If BB is worried about saving dollars, he could not resign Faulk and leave Faulk on the speed dial in case Spiller gets hurt.

Dunlap addresses a huge hole at OLB. I saw that CBS had him listed at 278 pounds and I expect him to weigh around 270 at the combine. With the addition of Lane, you have an immediate starter in Dunlap and a developmental prospect in Lane. BB has needed this for a longtime. I think that after a year or two of intense coaching and weight room work, Lane projects as a starter in the base defense.

Ducasse and Veldheer,when added to Vollmer, Mankins and Koppen give us a donut shaped O-Line, but one with tremendous potential two years down the road. I am sure Spiller would love to run behind this massive wall.

Geathers is a nice developmental prospect,although I think he played at South Carolina not Clemson. His brother Robert already plays for Indy,so at least he knows what he has to do to make a team.

Moeaki only weight 250 pounds, but I see lots of room for him to grow in strength and technique. If Watson is not resigned, Baker could become the primary receiving TE and Moeaki could develop into a solid blocking TE.

Barnes would be a steal, if he runs well. Nice hands and knows how to get open.

I have Zoltan targeted as a late round pick or UDFA. He seems to me to be an excellent upgrade over Hansen. Can Zoltan hold for extra points and FG tries? If not he will need a crash course in TC.

overall great effort.

Wow. I'm very flattered. Thank you.

 

[Brarrell]

This was a good article by Mike Lombardi makes me believe money for FA and our own will be spent this year. Also one other thing many of the luxury boxes are coming due and the Krafts understand the entertainment business.

Diner morning news: Pats' loss was a good thing | National Football Post

 

[DocE]

Mayo, I like a lot of it, and I feel like something similar to your plan is what is needed in Foxboro. I personally don't care much for Antonio Bryant at WR, but he may be the best available option. I'd have a hard time passing up Regis Benn in round 2 as I think he's a good fit as a no.2 WR in the Pats offense, running the deep ins and such. I love the Dansby signing and the draft picks of Dunlap and Lane. I am torn on Spiller, on one hand I see the need for a playmaking back, on the other I see the need for more power in the backfield. I am not sure a back like Spiller would have helped us at all in a cold playoff game against a defense like Baltimore. I am not a big McGahee fan and think he's best runnng behind a physical line like Baltimore's.

I agree with your overall themes of needing to add playmakers to this team as well as adding long pass rushers and favoring guys with high ceilings.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo, I like a lot of it, and I feel like something similar to your plan is what is needed in Foxboro. I personally don't care much for Antonio Bryant at WR, but he may be the best available option. I'd have a hard time passing up Regis Benn in round 2 as I think he's a good fit as a no.2 WR in the Pats offense, running the deep ins and such. I love the Dansby signing and the draft picks of Dunlap and Lane. I am torn on Spiller, on one hand I see the need for a playmaking back, on the other I see the need for more power in the backfield. I am not sure a back like Spiller would have helped us at all in a cold playoff game against a defense like Baltimore. I am not a big McGahee fan and think he's best runnng behind a physical line like Baltimore's.

I agree with your overall themes of needing to add playmakers to this team as well as adding long pass rushers and favoring guys with high ceilings.

Again, the specifics aren't so important to me. I like all the guys I targeted, but I like a lot of other guys as well. For example, if you prefer to pass on Spiller and go after a big back like Jonathan Dwyer, that's fine with me. As for McGahee, pretty much all power running backs are better running behind a physical run blocking line. That's one reason I prefer to use a high pick on a multi-purpose playmaker like Spiller, who we could get the ball to in a variety of ways which wouldn't depend so much on power run blocking, assuming an OC who actually went back to imaginative play calling (screens, draws, short timing routs, reverses, etc.).

I like several of the WRs who went in the 2nd round of my draft (Rejus Benn and Golden Tate among them), but I really don't want to use a high draft pick on a WR, for several reasons. First, I have other areas I'd much rather target. Second, predicting WR success from the draft is iffy, and our FO has had limited success in the 2nd round (Deion Branch, with some spectacular failures in Bethel Johnson and Chad Jackson). Third, we have Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman, and I think we could use a veteran WR much more than another rookie. If you don't like Antonio Bryant, there are other options, including bring back Branch.

 

[mayoclinic]

This was a good article by Mike Lombardi makes me believe money for FA and our own will be spent this year. Also one other thing many of the luxury boxes are coming due and the Krafts understand the entertainment business.

Diner morning news: Pats' loss was a good thing | National Football Post

Very good article. I started a thread based on it:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...96-lombardi-pats-winners-losing-ravens.html

Much of what Lombardi said influened my mock, particularly the statements that the Pats would be very aggressive not just at re-signings but in external FA and the draft.

 

[carolinatony]

While I agree with you all that Spiller is a playmaker and would love to have him IMO pass rush is too critial to ignore.

Our defense needs to appy pressure and IF we went mostly DE/LB's in the first 2 rounds I can't see anyone complaining.

We do need a updgrade at both RB and WR as well as OG but pass rush
should be BB's first priority.

Maybe there's a FA we can pick up or grab one on day 2.