January 15 2010 Offseason and Mock

[chevss454]

Excellent idea. There is a possibility there will be no NFL

football in 2011.

Both sides would lose so much money if that actually happened.

I proposed the possibility only because the Pats have more needs than 2010 draft picks and because this draft appears very deep.

 

[carolinatony]

I would be happy with any of these combo's.

1. Sergio Kindle/Jerry Hughes OLB
2a. Mike Iupati/Mike Johnson OG
2b. Hardy /Carlos Dunlap DE/LB
2c Austen Lane/ Pierre-Paul DE/OLB


Get a RB/WR later rounds and also FA's as well.

 

[NePatriots]

I would be happy with any of these combo's.

1. Sergio Kindle/Jerry Hughes OLB
2a. Mike Iupati/Mike Johnson OG
2b. Hardy /Carlos Dunlap DE/LB
2c Austen Lane/ Pierre-Paul DE/OLB


Get a RB/WR later rounds and also FA's as well.

I will be absolutely shocked (and ecstatic) if Dunlap, Iupati, Hardy, and Pierre-Paul are all available in the second round. I have them all going in the first round.

 

[cstjohn17]

And while Spiller may not be considered a traditional 3 down back, consider that Chris Johnson was not considered a three down player as well coming out of college with that sparkling 4.29. Now consider that Spiller will run around a 4.35 plus or minus time and Spiller catches better and willing to pick up the blitz and you see the appeal that Spiller brings.

Who do you think will be faster in the 40, Spiller or Best?

 

[Jimke]

Both sides would lose so much money if that actually happened.

I proposed the possibility only because the Pats have more needs than 2010 draft picks and because this draft appears very deep.

The NFL owners are playing a game known as chicken with the NFLPA.

I agree 100% with your second sentence.

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

Motivation for Krafts to open up the wallet this offseason:

1) The very first cracks in ticket demand showed up in the inability to sell out quickly home wild-card playoff tickets against the Ravens. Many tickets were available on game day. Many seats were unoccupied. Nothing like having fans vote by withholding their wallets. sends a loud message.
2) Need to ensure Tom Brady is assured that the Organization is committed to reloading around him to get # 12 to re-up.
3) Belichick has three years left on his contract (based on what was a new 5 year contract revealed during the spygate episode). Next year is crucial for him. He has to get the team to be ready to go deep in the playoffs, otherwise people will start anticipating/talking about pot-Belichick era
4) Uncapped year provides lots of room for frontloading the contracts, so they can reload without sacrificing future cap space.
5) Let's hope the Krafts insist Belichick get the coaches/personnel people around him he needs for fresh ideas and real help.
6) Belichick should be forced to explain his philosophy and choice of players in free agency and draft in the same way that Theo Epstein discusses the changes in the Red Sox (this year emphasizing pitching & defense). This way Belichick can be accountable publically.

 

[carolinatony]

I will be absolutely shocked (and ecstatic) if Dunlap, Iupati, Hardy, and Pierre-Paul are all available in the second round. I have them all going in the first round.

I believe they will go late 1st or early 2nd. It depends on who is looking for what. We never expected Vinve to fall to us the year we drafted him.
There are always 3/4 guys that drop a round.

 

[Nonentity]

I believe they will go late 1st or early 2nd. It depends on who is looking for what. We never expected Vinve to fall to us the year we drafted him.
There are always 3/4 guys that drop a round.

Agreed, just look at Rey Maualuga and Michael Oher dropping last year.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would be happy with any of these combo's.

1. Sergio Kindle/Jerry Hughes OLB
2a. Mike Iupati/Mike Johnson OG
2b. Hardy /Carlos Dunlap DE/LB
2c Austen Lane/ Pierre-Paul DE/OLB


Get a RB/WR later rounds and also FA's as well.

First, I'm confused as to why we would use 3 of our first 4 picks on pass rushers. 2 I can understand, but 3 makes no sense.

Second, Carlos Dunlap, Greg Hardy and Jason Pierre-Paul have every bit as much chance of going 1st round as Sergio Kindle and Jerry Hughes right now, probably more. So expecting that they would all be available in the 2nd round is stretching in things. One may fall, but all 3 would be unlikely.

Austen Lane at 2c, or even high 3rd round, makes a lot of sense.

Try something like:

1. Carlos Dunlap/Jason Pierre-Paul/Greg Hardy/Sergio Kindle/Jerry Hughes, depending on who you prefer and who is available

2a. Mike Iupati/Vlad Ducasse/Maurkice Pouncey/Mike Johnson

2b. BVA. Someone will slip. This could include Terrance Cody, Corey Wootten, Jahvid Best, Jonathan Dwyer, and Golden Tate. Again, someone will slip.

2c. Austen Lane

That's not unreasonable. I like what I projected better, but that's not unreasonable.

 

[carolinatony]

First, I'm confused as to why we would use 3 of our first 4 picks on pass rushers. 2 I can understand, but 3 makes no sense.

Second, Carlos Dunlap, Greg Hardy and Jason Pierre-Paul have every bit as much chance of going 1st round as Sergio Kindle and Jerry Hughes right now, probably more. So expecting that they would all be available in the 2nd round is stretching in things. One may fall, but all 3 would be unlikely.

Austen Lane at 2c, or even high 3rd round, makes a lot of sense.

Try something like:

1. Carlos Dunlap/Jason Pierre-Paul/Greg Hardy/Sergio Kindle/Jerry Hughes, depending on who you prefer and who is available

2a. Mike Iupati/Vlad Ducasse/Maurkice Pouncey/Mike Johnson

2b. BVA. Someone will slip. This could include Terrance Cody, Corey Wootten, Jahvid Best, Jonathan Dwyer, and Golden Tate. Again, someone will slip.

2c. Austen Lane

That's not unreasonable. I like what I projected better, but that's not unreasonable.

Your picks are more logical Mayo as usual.
Why do I want 3 pass rushers? We had no pass rush this year and if one doesn't pan out we still have 2. Any team with 2 pass rushers is harder to defend. Sometimes you miss on a draft pick as we all know.
We both agree OG should be a pick but I guess I am just sick of our lack of pass rush the last few years.
We both agree RB should be adressed but I don't want a early pick on one.

May BB agree with most on here and take someone who can rush the passer this draft since he passed last draft.
History tell us BB will trade one pick back so we will have 3 picks in the first 2 rounds I'm sure unless there's some kind of trade.

 

[furley]

Here are my second and third attempts at doing a mock draft.


Mock #2

Round One

#22 - Anthony Davis OT

Round Two

#42 or #44 - Eric Norwood OLB
#47 or #48 - Corey Wootton DE
#53 - Mike Johnson OG

Round Four

#117 - Joe Pawelek ILB

Round Six

#181 - Joique Bell RB

Round Seven

#214 - Eric Decker WR
#216 - Kyle Wilson CB


Mock #3

Round One

#22 - Carlos Dunlap DE

Round Two

#42 or #44 - Vladimir Ducasse OG
#47 or #48 - Jerry Hughes OLB
#53 - Javier Arenas CB

Round Four

#117 - Ben Tate RB

Round Six

#181 - D'Anthony Smith DT

Round Seven

#214 - Jacoby Ford WR
#216 - Jared Veldheer OT

New England — The Patriots should get four comp picks. They lost four players who will qualify and didn't sign any players who definitely will qualify. They also have one player signed and one player lost who are on the bubble for qualifying. Because the player they lost has a higher value than the one they signed, there is no way for the player signed to qualify without the player lost also qualifying, so those players will not affect the Patriots' comp picks. Three of the Patriots' comp picks will be in the seventh rouond. One, for Jabar Gaffney, likely will be in the seventh round but has a small chance of being in the sixth round.

AdamJT13: Early comp pick projections for 2010, Part IV

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't see your late round picks happening. Kyle Wilson, D'Anthony Smith, Eric Decker and Jared Veldheer will all go much, much earlier.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Picking up Dansby in free agency would be very exciting to me. Unfortunately I can't shake the feeling that it's very unlikely we end up with him or McClain.

 

[mayoclinic]

Picking up Dansby in free agency would be very exciting to me. Unfortunately I can't shake the feeling that it's very unlikely we end up with him or McClain.

You're probably right. Either one would be fabulous. The odds aren't great, but I hope at least make a serious run at them.

 

[mayoclinic]

Amazing effort MayoClinic. A couple of points.
You've assembled a very expensive roster...without even addressing a Brady extension. Do you have a total cap number for '10 with this roster. Tying up $19 mill on 3 WRs (Welker, Moss, Bryant) seems unBB like...and how can you double-plus Bryants salary when compared to Welker and his output.

I posted a version of what follows on another thread, but included it here to address your question.

Excluding the 8 who should ideally get long term extensions (including Brady, plus Wilfork, Mankins, Bodden, Watson, Gostkowski, Banta-Cain and possibly Kevin Faulk), and assuming that Adalius Thomas is cut or traded in the offseason, according to Miguel's cap page the 2011 cap hit for the core players who are signed long term works out to something like the following:

0. Cost of trading Adalius Thomas - $5,007,280
1. WR Randy Moss - $11,257,280
2. DE Ty Warren - $5,490,612
3. C Dan Koppen - $5,007,280
4. OT Matt Light - $4,507,280
5. WR Wes Welker - $4,232,280
6. OT Nick Kaczur - $3,582,280
7. CB Shawn Springs - $3,257,280
8. S James Sanders - $2,987,280
9. ILB Jerod Mayo - $2,932,280
10. RB Fred Taylor - $2,732,280
11. TE Chris Baker - $2,307,280
12. RB Lawrence Maroney - $2,009,780
13. DE Mike Wright - $1,737,280
14. S Brandon Meriweather - $1,737,280
15. RB Sammie Morris - $1,382,280
16. S Patrick Chung - $987,280
17. DT Ron Brace - $962,280
18. CB Darius Butler - $944,780
19. S Brandon McGowan - $912,280
20. OLB Rob Ninkovich - $773,946
21. ILB Eric Alexander - $769,280
22. RB Sam Aiken - $767,280
23. OG/C Dan Connolly - $765,613
24. OT Mark LeVoir - $740,613
25. OT Sebastian Vollmer - $707,280
26. CB Terrance Wheatley - $699,780
27. OLB Shawn Crable - $677,405
28. WR Brandon Tate - $591,030
29. WR Isaiah Stanbeck - $552,280
30. CB Jonathan Wilhite - $578,655
31. ST Matt Slater - $521,030
32. OG Rich Ohnrberger - $515,030
33. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis - $477,280
34. OG George Bussey - $440,230
35. DT Myron Pryor - $422,030
36. LS Jake Ingram - $419,780
37. WR Julian Edelman - $414,455
38. QB Brian Hoyer - $406,466
39. CB/ST Kyle Arrington - $402,280
40. ILB Thomas Williams - $402,280
41. OG Ryan Wendell - $402,280
42. OLB Bruce Davis - $402,280
43. QB Jeff Rowe - $402,280
44. RB Eric Kettani - $327,280
45. DT Daryl Richard - $327,280
46. DT Adrian Grady - $327,280
47. TE Rob Myers - $327,280
48. WR Darnell Jenkins - $327,280
49. TE Robbie Agnone - $327,280
50. RB Shun White - $327,280
51. WR Tyree Barnes - $327,280

So the total cap money invested in those 51 players, plus trading or cutting Adalius Thomas, totals $75,780,835. Plus roughly another $8M could be saved by cutting or trading some veterans depending on how the team views their cost/performance analysis. And I suspect more could be saved by restructuring some contracts (Randy Moss, for example).

In addition, Miguel's page doesn't list ILB Tyrone McKenzie, who is under contract through 2012. I'm not sure what his cap hit is. He signed a 4 year contract worth $3.124M including a $631,000 signing bonus.

The 2009 NFL salary cap was $128M. The 2008 salary cap was $116M. The 2007 salary cap was $109M. So I think that it is fair to say that if 2010 were a capped year, the cap would be at least $140M, which means that we would have roughly $65M to spend. I also think it's fair to assume that a 2011 capped year would have a cap of somewhere upwards of $150M.

Brady's current 2010 cap hit is $10,227,280. The cost of extending him should probably not significantly increase that cap hit. Subtract that and you still have around $55-60M to spend on re-signings, rookies, and external FAs.

In addition to the 7 players mentioned (minus Brady), the following players would need to be addressed:

- ERFA ILB Gary Guyton
- ERFA S/ST Bret Lockett
- RFA OLB Pierre Woods
- RFA RB Chris Taylor
- RFA S/ST Bret Lockett
- UFA OLB Derrick Burgess
- UFA DE Jarvis Green
- UFA OG Stephen Neal
- UFA P Chris Hanson

Junior Seau has retired. Stephen Neal may retire. Gary Guyton and Bret Locket are ERFAs and are not free to negotiate with any other team. They can be brought back fairly cheaply. Most of the others are cost/vale decisions, and should take a back seat to the major signings.

Subtracting roughly $6-7M for the rookie pool (our rookie pool was $6M in 2009, with 12 picks), we should have around $45-50M+ to re-sign our own FAs and sign external FAs, possibly more if we cut or trade a few people orrestructure a few contracts. And that would include roughly 60 players under contract (the 51 listed plus Brady and McKenzie, plus roughly 7 rookies going into camp).

Of the key Pats FAs to sign, I could see something like the following:

- Wilfork - franchised or extended, roughly an $8M cap hit
- Bodden - should be able to re-sign him for around a $6M hit
- Mankins - under $3M if tendered as an RFA; around a $6M hit if extended
- Gostkowski - around $2.5M if tendered as an RFA; around $3-4M hit if extended
- Watson - around a $4M hit if extended
- Faulk - should be able to re-sign him fairly cheaply; lets say $2M hit
- TBC - should be able to re-sign him for $2-3M hit

Those 7 would total about $31M, leaving close to $20M to play with. I think that puts us in position to make a run at a couple of external FAs. I can't see Dansby getting more than James Harrison's $51M 6 year deal from Pittsburgh with $20M in signing bonuses. Expensive, and perhaps the Pats won't go that high, but not because they don't have the money. We should be able to add Dansby, a 3rd WR like Antonio Bryant, and possibly a couple of low-mid priced guys (or bringing back some guys like Derrick Burgess or Jarvis Green) with that kind of room. As for Bryant's contract vs. Welker's, that's a significant issue, but we'd be bringing Bryant in as a #2 WR with Welker out, and I suspect the team could work around it.

I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just saying that I think that the money will be there if the team wants to be aggressive in FA.

As far as moving up for Spiller...if BB feels that he has to pay this draft price for a quality back, I would rather throw this pick at a sure thing, Jonathan Stewart of Carolina....my binky ...and I've been told that hell will freeze over first.

I've said before that I'd be happy to trade a #1 for Stewart, if Carolina is interested. If you can talk them into trading Stewart and their 3rd round pick for 42, 47 and 118 I'd be willing to listen. I doubt they'll do it, though.

 

[chevss454]

Just fyi,

Spiller Receives Two More Honors Named to ESPN.com All-America Team and Rivals.com All-Decade Team

Jan. 15, 2010

CLEMSON, SC -- C.J. Spiller continues to pile up awards, even after his Clemson career is over. On Friday, the now Clemson graduate was named a first-team All-American by ESPN.com for his performance in 2009 and was named to Rival.com's All-Decade team of College Football as a kick returner.

Spiller was one of four players who were seniors in 2009 to make the All-Decade team. The others were Tim Tebow of Florida at quarterback, Jermaine Gresham of Oklahoma at tight end and Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska at defensive tackle.

Spiller made first-team All-American according to every team announced this year, just the third unanimous All-American in Clemson history. The others are Terry Kinard (1982) and Gaines Adams (2006).

Spiller was named to both teams as a kick returner. This year he set an ACC record with four kickoff returns for touchdowns, giving him seven for his career, an NCAA record. He had five total kick returns for scores this year as he also had a punt return for a score against Boston College.

Spiller finished the year with 21 total touchdowns and was the only player in the nation to score a touchdown in every one of his team's games this year. He also finished the year fourth in the nation in all-purpose running yards per game and was third in kickoff return average.

As a running back, Spiller had 1212 rushing yards and 503 in receiving yards, the first player in ACC history with at least 1000 yards rushing and 500 receiving in the same year.

Rivals.com All-Decade Team

Offense
Pos. - Name, School (Years)
QB - Tim Tebow, Florida (2006-09)
RB - Darren McFadden, Arkansas (2005-07)
RB - Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma (2004-06)
WR - Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (2007-08)
WR - Larry Fitzgerald, Pittsburgh (2002-03)
TE - Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma (2006-09)
OT - Jake Long, Michigan (2004-07)
OT - Bryant McKinnie, Miami (FL) (2000-01)
OG - Andre Gurode, Colorado (2000-01)
OG - Steve Hutchinson, Michigan (2000)
C - Lecharles Bentley, Ohio State (2000-01)

 

[glm]

I've been playing with this idea, because he's been behaving lately, if we signed TO to a one year contract like we did Stallworth, and also signed Antonio Bryant.

I don't know, what do you guys think?

 

[Mossed]

Is there any cap penalty if we trade thomas instead of cutting him?

 

[mayoclinic]

Is there any cap penalty if we trade thomas instead of cutting him?

No. No difference.