Is This The Year the Patriots Trade Up?

[patchick]

I see this as a draft to be aggressive in response to opportunities. I'd be surprised by any blockbuster trades, but strategic moves up as they made for Ty Warren and Gronkowski make a lot of sense.

In particular, there's likely to be a tier of impact defensive players that drops off just above the Oakland pick. If a 2-3 slot move up nets a guy like Fairley or Amukamara, IMO that's huge value.

On the flip side, if that handful of guys go early, that top pick becomes wildly unpredictable. Maybe you stay in place, draft Julio Jones as a pure luxury pick, then trade up from the low 1st for a J.J. Watt. Or maybe you trade down. Or maybe you like a Watt or Beal or ? well enough to just make certain and get your man, Kipers of the world be damned.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Kipers of the world be damned.

:yeeha:

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I find this thread kind of weird. Like some want BB to trade up just for the sake of trading up.

A guy like McCourty not only fell to him, but BB could even trade back several times and still get him along with a bunch of extras. And I'm sure a lot of people were pissed that he was trading back instead of jumping up to get a guy. If the guy is worth it, he'll do it (like with Gronk).

BB has traded up in the past when he's felt there was value in doing so. Generally, he trades down because the value offered is so significant. But until we know who the players are and where they're going, it seems silly to hope he trades up when the guys he want might just fall to him anyways.

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

The modus operandi of BB has been to move around and manipulate the draft board to position him to collect as many of the players on his draft board as possible. The strategy has been maddening for us fans at times, but I think there is enough data to support what he's doing. When you consider that he has picked up enough picks to make basically a 2nd draft for us this year from nothing it's especially impressive.

However, he drafted 24 players in the last 2 drafts and in the process only 8 haven't made it onto the roster or the practice squad. A pretty damn good hit rate mind you. 16 players or roughly a quarter of the roster has been acquired through the previous 2 drafts, there is a solid nucleus of veteran's to build around, and there is no reason to discount the potential addition of free agents provided they pass the "Are You Not an *******" test.

Point being there isn't a whole lot of roster space for the 12 players being selected in the upcoming April draft. You can bet that 1 or even 2 picks are going to be passed along to other teams to load up for the 2012 draft but even then they'll have 10 players left to squeeze on the roster. Me thinks that this is the year they package some picks together and try and make a splash and grab 3 and if they can swing it 4 players in the 1st round. The number of bodies available clearly isn't an issue, but level of talent may be. It just seems like the perfect storm for them to move up and cash in on 3 years of prudent, conservative drafting and shoot for some marque playmakers.

Thoughts?

I don't think BB will trade up much. Yes, tactical trades to go up and get a player like GRONK in the second round this year, yes. But not giving up the farm for a top ten player. BB will let the draft come to him. If he thinks he has more draft choices than places/roles open, he will trade them into 2012 future draft picks, preferably with weak teams.

 

[JerseyDevil26]

Well one thing is for certain: BB will manuever around the draft board to get his guy.

Trading up in the first round is just something the Patriots do not do. Therefore I do not see it happeneing again this year. BB's MO shouldn't change.

I also don't believe we'll end up picking 4 times in the first 2 rounds. Wouldn't surprise me if we swap #33 for a first rounder in 2012. Maybe a team like the Cowboys or Chargers will swap with us.

Obviously it'll be dependent on what players are available to us when we pick and what our offseason roster moves will be, but I would like to see picks on the offensive line, defensive line, and secondary.

 

[mgteich]

I don't see what you suggest as being any different from the strategy of the patriots over the past few years. And yes, I agree that we can trade up or down a few spots with the Oakland pick. Moving up to 9th or so would likely require our 2nd, but it could very well be worth it.

I see this as a draft to be aggressive in response to opportunities. I'd be surprised by any blockbuster trades, but strategic moves up as they made for Ty Warren and Gronkowski make a lot of sense.

In particular, there's likely to be a tier of impact defensive players that drops off just above the Oakland pick. If a 2-3 slot move up nets a guy like Fairley or Amukamara, IMO that's huge value.

On the flip side, if that handful of guys go early, that top pick becomes wildly unpredictable. Maybe you stay in place, draft Julio Jones as a pure luxury pick, then trade up from the low 1st for a J.J. Watt. Or maybe you trade down. Or maybe you like a Watt or Beal or ? well enough to just make certain and get your man, Kipers of the world be damned.

 

[patrickscribe]

Who do people keep saying that BB could trade #33 for a first next year? It's basically a first.

The idea of trading a second for a first is that you move up a whole round for delaying a year. But trading 33 would really amount to trying to move up within the round, based on a guess about how well the trade partner will do next year and a bet on their injuries and luck and strength of schedule.

Unless he doesn't like the talent pool at 33, this trade doesn't make sense.

 

[patchick]

Who do people keep saying that BB could trade #33 for a first next year? It's basically a first.

I think many folks are assuming the value is a 2012 first PLUS a decent pick in 2011.

 

[arubin]

I hope a trade goes to a team that has a bad record like Arizona or something - sends us their first next year and their 3rd this year. That would be great!

 

[Snake Eyes]

I hope a trade goes to a team that has a bad record like Arizona or something - sends us their first next year and their 3rd this year. That would be great!

...or we could take their 1st next year and 2nd this year in exchange for #33 and this years 3rd.

 

[Off The Grid]

Who do people keep saying that BB could trade #33 for a first next year? It's basically a first.

The idea of trading a second for a first is that you move up a whole round for delaying a year. But trading 33 would really amount to trying to move up within the round, based on a guess about how well the trade partner will do next year and a bet on their injuries and luck and strength of schedule.

Unless he doesn't like the talent pool at 33, this trade doesn't make sense.

You've got the right idea: The Premium on Moving Back is 1 Round...approximately.

But what it really is ~ again: approximately ~ is a 50% Premium, roughly based on The Famous Draft Value Chart, and subject to all manner of variables, including the prospective Return On Investment of the targeted player, the Relative Strength of the two Draft Classes involved...and the prospects of the team paying the Premium.

No, Coach Bill The Mad doesn't conference me in on those negotiations: I get all that from applying The Chart to past trades, many of them our own.

All that being the case, trading #33 for another team's 2012 1st Rounder ~ or a package including it ~ would involve applying about a 50% discount to their prospective Draft position.

***

I've always found that notion amusing, because I can only imagine the conversations Coach Bill The Great has had with previous trade partners who swapped an unknown quantity to us for a known quantity, such as the Raiders, Panthers, and Vikings, in this draft, or the vast array of trade partners in other drafts of the past!!

"That should be PLENTY, Bill. After all, I feel an 0-16 coming on. I mean, we SUCK."

"My @$$. I thank GOD we aren't playing you this year. I fully expect to see you in the Super Bowl, where you'll probably beat us 73-0."

***

So as a starting point, if we were to trade #33 straight up for someone's 2012 1st, we'd be looking at a team that finished this year at about #13: #33 being tagged at 580 points, and #13 being tagged at about 1150 points.

Obviously, we'd want to target a team that we think is about to COLLAPSE.

In a package deal with a 2011 3rd Rounder, we might, for instance, pick up #84, this year, and the 2012 1st Rounder of a team that finished this year at #20 or #21.

***

MIND you: The Draft Value Chart is an estimator, not a rule book. Some trades go down for a Discount, relative to the Premium...And some trades go for a Super Premium.

For instance, when we traded the Panthers #89, last year, Fair Value ~ as it were ~ would've been the 2nd Rounder of a team that finished with #29 or so: #89, at 145 Points, swapped for #61, at 292 Points: the Panthers paying the usual 100% Premium for Trading Forward, which is to say they would Discount their own 2011 Pick by 50%.

By giving us the 2nd Rounder of a team ~ their own ~ that had finished #17, they coughed up the proxy for #49, which was worth 410 Points in 2011 "Dollars", and, therefore, at a 50% Discount, 205 Points in 2010 "Dollars"...for #89, at 145 Points in 2010 "Dollars".

Coach Bill ROOKED them!! :rocker:

 

[Off The Grid]

We've done this, before, of course, and it's been interesting...

Our 2007 1st ~ #28 ~ to the Miners for their 4th ~ #110 ~ and a 2008 1st.

The Miners had #11 that year, so the 2008 Pick's Fair Value was 1250 Points ~ 625 Points, in 2007 Dollars.

Add that 625 Points to the 74 Points for #110, and we got a solid premium, indeed, for #28, which was worth 660 Points in 2007 Dollars.

Even so, I wasn't thrilled: The Miners looked to me like they were on the way up.

Fortunately, I was dead wrong, and as we all know they actually got WORSE, giving us #7, which we were able to parlay ~ minus exceptional OG Carl Nicks, I'm sorry to say, not that he could've played HERE ~ for Rising Star ~ HAH!! to all you doubters!! ~ Jerod Mayo...and He Who Shall Not Be Named.

...and it didn't hurt that we swapped #110 for Randy Moss!! :rocker:

Our 2003 1st ~ #19 ~ to the Ravens for their 2nd ~ #41 ~ and their 2004 1st

That's us trading 875 Points for 490 Points plus the Ravens 2004 1st Rounder. With the Ravens having finished with #10 in 2003, that made for 1300 points in 2004 Dollars, or 650 Points in 2003 Dollars, for a total of 1140 Points we got for our 875...except, of course, that everyone knew that there was no way in HELL that the Ravens were producing anything close to #10 in the 2004 Draft!!

After Trading Up with #41, we ultimately can be said to've traded the Ravens Kyle Boller for 90% of Eugene Wilson...and 100% of Vince Wilfork!! :rocker:

Yes, I spend FAR too much time on this stuff!!

 

[JerseyDevil26]

Who do people keep saying that BB could trade #33 for a first next year? It's basically a first.

The idea of trading a second for a first is that you move up a whole round for delaying a year. But trading 33 would really amount to trying to move up within the round, based on a guess about how well the trade partner will do next year and a bet on their injuries and luck and strength of schedule.

Unless he doesn't like the talent pool at 33, this trade doesn't make sense.

Since BB always looks to the future if you can acquire a first round pick for #33 you almost have to do it. The acquired first round pick for the most part is a better bargaining chip to move around the boards. So to say it doesn't really have much meaning is kind of foolish if you ask me.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Since BB always looks to the future if you can acquire a first round pick for #33 you almost have to do it. The acquired first round pick for the most part is a better bargaining chip to move around the boards. So to say it doesn't really have much meaning is kind of foolish if you ask me.

I think it depends on what comes with it. Like Off The Grid wrote earlier, we could do it if we got something substantial this year too, like a 3rd rounder plus next year's 1st.

But if it's just next year's first, you're really not trading up that much, especially with a solid team. In that scenario, you're waiting a year to jump maybe 7 or 8 spots, which probably isn't worth it. When we traded our 3rd to Carolina, it was a very late 3rd round pick, 89th. Even if Carolina won the Super Bowl this season, we'd still have jumped 35 spots, making it worthwhile, but we were able to jump 56 spots.

So straight up for a 1st, it'd have to be with a train-wreck of a team. But there are some scenarios that would provide a lot of value this year and next.

 

[yopats]

I think it depends on what comes with it. Like Off The Grid wrote earlier, we could do it if we got something substantial this year too, like a 3rd rounder plus next year's 1st.

But if it's just next year's first, you're really not trading up that much, especially with a solid team. In that scenario, you're waiting a year to jump maybe 7 or 8 spots, which probably isn't worth it. When we traded our 3rd to Carolina, it was a very late 3rd round pick, 89th. Even if Carolina won the Super Bowl this season, we'd still have jumped 35 spots, making it worthwhile, but we were able to jump 56 spots.

So straight up for a 1st, it'd have to be with a train-wreck of a team. But there are some scenarios that would provide a lot of value this year and next.

I would be shocked if we don't trade #33 or #76 for future picks.. there will be desperate teams and BB is def building this dynasty to be sustainable..

So 2012 would look have us again with 2 #1's and 2 #2's and those would most likely be in the front half of the drafting order the BB plays this game of chess..

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I think that you also have to look at how badly some teams are going to need the picks that the Pats have. Let's face it, you can't do didly squat in the NFL these days if you don't have a Quaterback. The following teams currently do not have anything close to a NFL caliber QB on their rosters:

Arizona
San Francisco
Minnesota


These teams may not admit it yet, but theey too need a QB:
Carolina
Buffalo
Cleveland
Seattle
Tennessee
Miami
Jacksonville
Oakland


And almost all of them will pick before the Pats do (with the Raider's pick) You have to think that Luck, Locker, Mallett and Newton will all go before #15. So the Pats may not have to trade up as high as you think to land the DE OLB. I think that #32-33 maybe a great target for a team looking to bag Chritian Ponder/Nick Foles/Blaine Gabbert/ Pat Dlevin/ Ricky Stanzi. I could see both Foles and Gabbert sneaking into the first round (becuase of the demand).

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I would be shocked if we don't trade #33 or #76 for future picks.. there will be desperate teams and BB is def building this dynasty to be sustainable..

So 2012 would look have us again with 2 #1's and 2 #2's and those would most likely be in the front half of the drafting order the BB plays this game of chess..

I wouldn't be surprised if we traded those picks. But I think I'd want more than juts a 1st rounder for the #33 since it's basically a late 1st rounder is all. Something this year in addition to next.

 

[arubin]

I just find it fun having another team's first rounder and hoping that team fails. You know there is no chance the Patriots will have the first pick with their own pick so having someone elses first rounder is fun to think about. Damn, I wish the raiders just lost 2-3 more games.

 

[Off The Grid]

I think it depends on what comes with it. Like Off The Grid wrote earlier, we could do it if we got something substantial this year too, like a 3rd rounder plus next year's 1st.

But if it's just next year's first, you're really not trading up that much, especially with a solid team. In that scenario, you're waiting a year to jump maybe 7 or 8 spots, which probably isn't worth it. When we traded our 3rd to Carolina, it was a very late 3rd round pick, 89th. Even if Carolina won the Super Bowl this season, we'd still have jumped 35 spots, making it worthwhile, but we were able to jump 56 spots.

So straight up for a 1st, it'd have to be with a train-wreck of a team. But there are some scenarios that would provide a lot of value this year and next.

I would be shocked if we don't trade #33 or #76 for future picks.. there will be desperate teams and BB is def building this dynasty to be sustainable..

So 2012 would look have us again with 2 #1's and 2 #2's and those would most likely be in the front half of the drafting order the BB plays this game of chess...

I think that you also have to look at how badly some teams are going to need the picks that the Pats have. Let's face it, you can't do didly squat in the NFL these days if you don't have a Quaterback. The following teams currently do not have anything close to a NFL caliber QB on their rosters:

Arizona
San Francisco
Minnesota


These teams may not admit it yet, but theey too need a QB:
Carolina
Buffalo
Cleveland
Seattle
Tennessee
Miami
Jacksonville
Oakland


And almost all of them will pick before the Pats do (with the Raider's pick) You have to think that Luck, Locker, Mallett and Newton will all go before #15. So the Pats may not have to trade up as high as you think to land the DE OLB. I think that #32-33 maybe a great target for a team looking to bag Chritian Ponder/Nick Foles/Blaine Gabbert/ Pat Dlevin/ Ricky Stanzi. I could see both Foles and Gabbert sneaking into the first round (becuase of the demand).

Strong points, indeed, gents.

And the more I think'f it, the more I like the notion of rolling #33 for a 3rd and a 2012 1st, particularly if we target the right team.

We'd probably be looking at about the 20 or 21st Draft Seed ~ just missed the playoffs or 1 and done ~ to get the right Value match up...But of course somebody in the upper teens could get anxious, and Coach Bill's never had a problem helpin' a brothah out.

None of those teams strikes me as a good target, though. Possibly Jacksonville ~ currently at #17 ~ but I don't like their chances of imploding, next year, with that O Line. Nobody above them needs a QB, in my view, which is of course ~ as Brother Ted points out ~ the Trigger.

2 Prime Candidates for that 3rd + 1st Package

1 ~ RedSkins ~ Prime candidates, indeed. Snyder's got a rich history of trashing his Draft to make a splash, and I could easily see him making that move, to snatch up a Jake Locker or some such. Now, with him at #13 Draft Seed, a 2011 3rd and a 2012 1st would be WAY over paying for #33, but if a bidding war ensues, it JUST might happen!!

2 ~ Raiders ~ Hey, why the hell not?? Trading this year's #1 to us is looking like an important move in turning that team around. With them currently sitting at #15 Draft Seed, an even trade would be their 2011 4th Rounder and their 2012 1st ~ perhaps #33 and our 5th Rounder for their 3rd Rounder and their 2012 1st Rounder?? ~ And we could have another GO at it!!

Of course, it might a player other than QB that elicits that desperation from someone. Virtually any team might be willing to pay the price for that pick...and it only takes ONE that MUST have that player, to pay a SUPER Premium on what is already an incredibly foolish move!!

 

[Fencer]

BB has actually managed to make it out of the first round without trading, but not once in his tenure has he made it out of the second round without at least one trade.

He once took 10 picks into draft day and didn't make any trades. Wasn't a great draft, either.

If my memory serves, that is ....