Is (Patriots) football like chess, or backgammon?

[Fencer]

Early in the history of chess, by the way, it frequently had a random element -- you rolled a die to see what kind of piece you would move. But that form of the game wasn't common after the 13th Century or so.

 

[DarrylS]

Only if Pete Carroll was bat-**** crazy.

He is not?? Nice thread though...

IMO chance is a factor, but preparing for those moments when planning takes a back seat and chance drives minimizes the chances of defeat... not being much of a gameboard/card player it is difficult to visualize this analogy.

Maybe golf would be a better comparison, as every shot you take you are preparing for the next shot all the while visualizing the intended results... when stuff happens you have to regroup.

 

[patsfan13]

Great thread.

There is randomness and also probability distributions. So while luck in involved clearly some org are more lucky than others. The chess IMO involves areas where the coach GM have a level of control. We know that the NFL is a war of attrition, so a deep roster is an important factor in a successful season, there are certain critical points where a injury is catastrophic to the team success, QB IOW that is something that can't be fully compensated for, but BB for example accepts the fact that injuries will inevitably occur and tends to have a deeper roster than other teams. HE doesn't go "all in" betting on getting as many "superstars" as possible fitting under the salary cap for a given years. The valuation of cap space going to each positional grouping speaks to winning the war of attrition that is the NFL season.

Then there is the 'luck' factor in game that is very significant, turnovers, when you have a qb that protects the ball and skill players who are less prone to fumbling you improve the odds of winning the TO battle and the game.

So you are playing the chess game in the context of the backgammon game to improve your odds in the random events.

BTW the talent distribution varies over the course of the season, based on injuries so a team that has a large number of injuries may be comparable to a lesser team with fewer injuries on that given sunday.

My wife has become a sports fan over the years and has come to see sports as a form of spontaneous art where the script is never entirely known.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

"It looks like you two were doing the jitterbug while the Dallas secondary was doing the Charleston."

 

[zydecochris]

Wow, what a great thread. Thank you Chris. I can't say I agreed with everything you eaid, but you made your points well, and more importantly you made me think.

Mike I loved that you brought up poker. What a interesting metaphor. Since a great deal of the time you are not playing with the best cards,successful Poker is a lot about being able to tell a story with your betting and getting your opponent to believe it. But to be able to do that you have to establish credibility at the table. In other words you have to create a table legend, (aggressive, conservative it doesn't matter), then do the opposite when least expected. But Poker is random too often to be a great metaphor for football.

Still randomness plays a big role in every game. The penalty called or not called at a critical time, The guy who was wide open and the ball is just inches long. The fumble that bounces right back to the ball carrier....or not. Think about it. An offense gains 15 yards on a first and 10, but there is a holding call. Now its first and 20, and in the next 3 plays the offense gains 19 yds. So in 4 plays, the offense gets almost 40 yds, and it goes into the record books as a 3 and out. Great defense right. '

What has always made football so fascinating to me was the mental aspect of it. How that coaching could overcome talent more in football than any other team sport. And we will see a perfect example of it tomorrow.

I expect the Dolphins to come out with a great offensive scheme that the Pats aren't expecting and haven't seen, and move the ball well. Great coaching on their part. Then I can see the Pats great coaching staff respond and make the needed adjustment quickly enough get back into the game and win it.

That's part of the reason why the Chess metaphor is still the best one. Every game has a different strategy, and the staff who can best figure out what their opponent's strategy is. Who can make the adjustments to counter that strategy the fastest. Who can best communicate to their players what needs to be done. And who has best trained their players to make those adjustments on the fly....will be the one who USUALLY will win the game. Subject off course, to the random elements like bounces, calls, injuries, and drops.

MOST of the time, its the Pats staff who does this better than any team in the league. That's why they could get to a superbowl with a pretty horrible roster in 2011, and get to the AFCCG with all e the critical injuries and inexperience last season.

That's also why I'm so excited about this season. BB has proven time and time again that he can take average rosters and exceed expectations, And when he has a great roster, he will smoke the league. This roster may need another year to ripen, but right now it might just be the 3rd or 4th best roster (from top to bottom) that BB's had since he's been here. And I will stand by that, even though I wouldn't bet money that I can name correctly 4 of the 5 OL starters tomorrow.

Thank you Ken, that is high praise indeed coming from you. You said that I "made you think", and as a former (and in my opinion current) teacher (of football), you correctly ascertained that was the purpose of the thread, to stimulate thought about the randomness of sport, using the backgammon analogy (a game I am familiar with that explicitly combines strategy with randomness). What great responses from you and others, very well put and well thought out. Whether or not they agreed with me is frankly completely irrelevant to me (to me it is boring to only consider one point of view, I love hearing well thought out contrarian views) as long as it made people think a bit.

Teaching is part of my day job, and similarly my goal is not to have students simply regurgitate everything I say, but to get them to think for themselves using logical analysis and critical thinking (in academia this means "with a questioning attitude", not "you are an idiot"). On this site, I am definitely a student, and almost everything I know about football I've learned from the many excellent posters, like you.

It was nice to switch hats and be the teacher just this once (on the subject of randomness in sports) and try to get people to think a bit. After this thread I'll put my student hat back on, it fits me better anyway.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

I think Patriots football under Belichick is more like chess than any other team. There are still guesses but when the team looks better, they get better and vice versa. Look at Houston, or the Eagles or any other team. Completely unpredictable one year to the next whether they get top talent or not.