Is Mel Kiper a good draft expert?

[patsinthesnow]

Funny, a mostly reliable source told me the same thing about Best to the Pats, except he said not at #22. I don't buy it.

I won't be too upset if he were drafted at #44, he's a gamble, high risk,high reward.

Pros:
Homerun threat
Could be an NFL highlight reel.

Cons:
Injuries
Bad Blocker
Can't be a main back

Only 4 more days.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Doesn't matter if he's good or not, he is the reason why the draft is as big as it is today.

 

[TriplecHamp]

What does kiper do for the other 11 months of the year?

Watch college football tapes?

 

[Marqui]

Funny, a mostly reliable source told me the same thing about Best to the Pats, except he said not at #22. I don't buy it.

If your source is reliable, why don't you buy it?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

If your source is reliable, why don't you buy it?

Unless Best is one of the 2-3 visits we didn't read about, it doesn't look like he's high on NE's board. With his concussion history, he would have been exactly the kind of prospect NE would have brought in for medical evaluation before drafting.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

I prefer McShay between the two "draft gurus" at ESPN, but I do like Kiper, as I enjoy when he verbally abuses McShay in a draft duel. It's kind of cool how he talks so fast too hahah. Out of the draft experts, I probably like Mayock the best but I'm not blown away by any of them.

One guy who I think is undervalued/under-used is Merril Hodge. I always love hearing what he has to say after watching tape, and I tend to agree with him on a lot of his views. He's usually right about a lot of things and he breaks down film very well. For example, the 06 draft, Hodge said he wouldn't trade up to #2 for any QB and wouldn't even draft any of the QB's in the first round except for Cutler. He was ridiculed at the time, but 4 years later it was a great call.

He also went out there and said Mendenhall is and will be a much better RB than McFadden in the NFL, and he rated him the best RB of the 08 draft. I felt the same exact way and was kind of hoping the Pats would figure out a way to get Mendenhall since I loved him so much. So far, Mendenhall has been more productive than McFadden and looks to have a brighter future in front of him.

 

[Coach42]

McShay is a dweeb.

 

[DocE]

I have a lot of respect for Mel Kiper and he is a good TV draft expert. Comparing him to Mike Mayock is not exactly fair as Mayock has access to tapes/resources through working for the NFL Network that Mel Kiper does not. However, Kiper can be more critical of teams than Mayock can because he's not affiliated with the NFL. Mayock is going to be more accurate, but if you like to hear an honest opinion on how a team is drafting, I'd rather listent to Kiper. Give me Mayock for inside info on who teams will pick, and draft rankings and give me Kiper for analysis of the actual picks.

The one real negative to Kiper is he has at times listened to some terrible sources when putting out his last mock draft. I remember about 4-5 years ago he had several guys in the 2nd round of his final mock that went in the 6th or 7th rounds and not because of a medical issue, just talent. These guys were nowhere near the 2nd round in his own projections prior to his final projection.

Nolan Nawrocki should get a lot of credit for his final mock too. He tends to be very accurate at the last minute. Don Banks can be hit or miss at SI.com, but comes up with some good infor (Banks isn't a scout more of an information gatherer).

 

[DarrylS]

Doesn't matter if he's good or not, he is the reason why the draft is as big as it is today.

I agree, whether he is good or not is not all that important, he has marketed himself as a draft expert... and many folks buy it..

Personally reminds me of **** Clarke, an drinker from the fountain of youth..

 

[chevss454]

CHHF did a recent study on the mocks to put all this to rest. It's a good article and worth the 2 min. read.

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Kiper the klown: our annual mock-draft scorecard!

And the 2009 NFL draft was no exception: another embarrassing display of bombastic ignorance by the nation’s most visible “mock draft” experts, the guys who devote 365 days a year to pinning down what’s going to happen during the NFL selection process and then come up empty on gameday.

*
Mel Kiper accurately predicted just 8 of 32 (25%) first-round draft picks.
*
Todd McShay, who was run on a 24x7 loop by ESPN in the weeks leading up to the draft, nailed just 7 of 32 (21.9%) first-round picks.

 

[WelshPat]

Doesn't matter if he's good or not, he is the reason why the draft is as big as it is today.

Agreed, the NFL owes a lot to Kiper for being a massive part in the growth of the draft.

He used too be better years ago but at least he is not afraid of having an opinion, and backs it up with facts and good arguements. I don't hate Mcshay like some others do, he speaks well but i disagree with a lot of what he says (he hates pretty much every QB, has a theory about the "big 4" positions that i don't like)

Mayock is the best actual scout, but he comes across as arrogent and he doesn't have any mock drafts. The rest of the guys on the NFL network are either just dumb or love every pick, which i can't stand

 

[WhiZa]

Watch college football tapes?

That knocks about 6 months off during the college season. He must have the best job ever.

 

[DaBruinz]

Mayock isn't the best. In fact, I've talked to the guys who run the Huddle Report and such. The funny thing is that the one year that Mayock supposedly got 20 of the picks correct, he never submitted the mock to anyone else. People only had his say so after the fact..

Here is the Huddle Reports racking of the Mock Drafters:
The Huddle Report - NFL Draft Research and Analysis

You'll see that Kiper is a respectable 6th on the 3 year average, with Gosselin and Clark Judge being the best.

I think you'll also see that there are cases of the blind squirrel finding the nuts as well.

 

[Ice Cold Bruschi]

When you factor in that even the pro's make the same mistakes in evaluating players I'd have to say he's good. I like Mayock a lot better though. And get McShay out of here please. Scott Wright's draftcountdown.com is my draft bible.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I am watching the 2007 draft right now. When the Jets traded up draft everyone knew that they wanted a quarterback. Mel said that Leon Hall was a better pick than Revis! The really weird thing is that Mel mentioned how Hall had been torched by a couple of mid-range WRs that came out that year but still he had Hall ahead of Revis!? Wow.

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

When you factor in that even the pro's make the same mistakes in evaluating players I'd have to say he's good. I like Mayock a lot better though. And get McShay out of here please. Scott Wright's draftcountdown.com is my draft bible.

You beat me to it. I was thinking the exact same thing. Even the best drafting teams are wrong half the time.

I agree on McShay. He's like Troy Aikman, he just fusses all the time.