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Interception leaders: the next year

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PatsFanInVa, Jul 21, 2007.

  1. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    2006 Samuel, N.E. 10 2007 ?
    2005 Ty Law, NYJ 10 2006 4
    2004 Ed Reed, Bal. 9 2005 4 or less... nfl.com lists top 30 players
    2003 Brian Russel, Min. 9 2004 4 or less
    Tony Parrish, SF 9 2004 4 or less

    Picks are one of the most misleading numbers in sports. As many, many here have pointed out, the number of picks you get depends on a QB throwing to your side of the field. So if you're not an unknown, you change the game, and it never shows up on the stat line.

    Adding to that, even 10 picks in a season only shows you to make a (relatively) big play a little more than every other game -- it's the plays you make that aren't int.s that really tell the story.

    Actually, a good statistical measure is passes defensed. That's when you break up a pass play, but it's not an int. I did the research on Asante, and just like his picks, he's steadily progressed to a present high level.

    In other words: no knock on (for now) our boy Asante. But the big number he posted -- the int. lead -- has to be taken with a grain of salt.

    I just thought it was worth posting. (I saw this same breakdown in a fantasy rag I read at the bookstore and did not buy... so I just recreated it. So no, not my idea, just interesting stuff.)

    PFnV
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2007
  2. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I doubt AS will ever get ten picks again,I think Ty Law did it ONE time and that was it. And I don't think anyone thinks AS has the talent of Law. The defensive line also plays a major role in picks. I think any QB if pressured long enough,and hard enough will start throeing picks. Maybe thats a little obvious.
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2007
  3. dhamz

    dhamz Rookie

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    There really is no good statistical measure at CB. If you are playing man to man and stick with your guy, most times that means the ball isn't thrown your way. I saw Deion Sanders dominate other team's passing games by completely eliminating 1 side of the field from their attack. In those games he probably recorded almost nothing in the stat column.
  4. patriot lifer

    patriot lifer Rookie

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    especially since deion wouldn't tackle
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2007
  5. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    and he doesn't get to face Rex Grossman again for three years.......
  6. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't mean to get simplistic, just to dispel what's even more simplistic: paying a man based on his lead in a really variable statistical category. Now, anyone who saw some of Samuel's acrobatic play last year in the 2nd half and during the playoffs, knows that he had some very high level and fan-happy moments -- really, game-changers, the kind you really want to see every week (whether the broken up passes or the int.s).

    He might be great, fantastic, the best in the game, or he might be a guy who played over his head. That's what A.S. wants to ignore in his negotiations, the word "might." That is, his position is "come on guys I did it for a few games, I can do it again." The truth is, he put together a decent run. Anybody who plays like that week in and week out, yeah, that's elite. But if you want your payday now, you have to base it on not-yet-conclusive evidence, coupled with the fact that -- sorry to be a downer -- the Pats have not to date been the biggest players in the cornerback market (ask Ty about that one.)

    Whatever else you want to base it on, the stat lead in int.s seems doomed to failure as the constantly-mentioned measure of Samuel's newfound "elite" status.

    PFnV
  7. PatsFaninAZ

    PatsFaninAZ Rookie

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    I think I definitely agree with the proposition that you can be a great corner and still have little in the stat column to show for it.

    I'm a bit more skeptical that you can record a high number of interceptions and have it not mean something. It's very significant. I'm not sure there's a more important stat in football than takeaways, given the very low percentages with respect to winning a game where you're a minus in take aways.

    What does a team get in terms of takeaways in a decent year? 40 or so? Asante had better than 1 every two games, and 25 percent of that -- more than half the team's interceptions. And even after that, he continued it in the playoffs, when teams knew what he had done during the regular year. Seems the history shows a good case that leading in interceptions is not a predictor for future success. But I'm not ready to agree that Asante's numbers last year are a fluke or don't mean what we think they mean.

    I actually do. I think Asante turned a major corner last year, and that he's prepared to be one of the most significant defensive pass players in the NFL. I don't believe it's just the system. I think that on a good team, he will be a difference maker on a regular basis. I wish that weren't the case given the current state of affairs, but it's what I believe. Doesn't mean he's worth what he wants, just sayin'.

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