Looking at the '23 opponents for top 3 candidates (playoff teams):
49ers: tough schedule, avg division
Home: Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys, Giants, Ravens, Bengals, Buccaneers
Away: Cardinals, Browns, Rams, Eagles, Vikings, Jaguars, Seahawks, Commanders, Steelers
Raiders: tough schedule & division
Home: Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Patriots, Jets, Packers, Vikings, Steelers, Giants
Away: Bears, Broncos, Lions, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, Colts, Bills
Bucs: easy schedule & division
Home: Falcons, Panthers, Saints, Bears, Lions, Jaguars, Titans, Eagles
Away: Falcons, Panthers, Packers, Texans, Colts, Vikings, Saints, 49ers, Bills
He should stay w/ the Bucs. Guaranteed to win the division, possible #2 seed. No learning new system, no moving & close to fam. Has weapons. Improve OL, run game, sign/draft a TE-1 & run it back.