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Idle thoughts - the post draft overview...


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It's a poor comparison head to head, because Spikes is a player very much in the mold of Bruschi, while Mayo is nothing like Ted Johnson.

But in terms of overall impact it's not crazy.

Expecting greatness from a 3rd year guy and a rookie is crazy. If it happens its a huge bonus and surprise but even thinking it might happen is lunacy.
 
PFK - Great analysis. I only have one qualm. You're theory about the CBs doesn't hold up. In 2009, the Pats got 2 sacks from DBs. In 2003 and 2004, the Pats had 4 and 3 respectively. So, it's basically little difference.

He did say DBs as opposed to CBs, and the safeties came a lot back then, Milloy in particular and the corners did come too.
 
Mostly agree except...Damione Lewis and Brace have nothing to do with each other. Brace is a nose tackle project who either hits it big as a backup or trade bait at the hardest position to fill on a 3-4, or is out of the league, or at best a marginal 4-3 tackle somewhere.

Lewis is a dependable vet. Between he, warren and Wright we fill the Seymour hole. Obviously no one player we have will. Greene is gone too.

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McGinest was a dominant pass rusher. It's really not numbers IMO, but whether someone can physically beat the defense by force or speed when a clutch sack is needed. McGinest could, Vrabel and others with big sack number years couldn't.

I like Cunningham very much, but he'll need to pump some iron and learn some technique to come near McGinest on the bull rush front. Otherwise, he looks very quick and controlled and I think he'll be a fine player for us.
 
I like Cunningham very much, but he'll need to pump some iron and learn some technique to come near McGinest on the bull rush front. Otherwise, he looks very quick and controlled and I think he'll be a fine player for us.
I highly doubt Cunningham was brought in to be a McGinest replacement. He's much more comparable to Vrable in terms of measurables and skillset.
 
Expecting greatness from a 3rd year guy and a rookie is crazy. If it happens its a huge bonus and surprise but even thinking it might happen is lunacy.

Ted Johnson was a good player, not a great one.

Expecting a DROY to eventually get to Bruschi level is not unrealistic.

Expecting a 2nd-round pick to eventually get to Ted Johnson level is even more plausible.
 
Very nice write up, particularly agree with your assessment regarding the DB's & sacks, had not thought about this in a while.. but we have amassed quite a few physical guys, who may be able to do this...
 
The biggest difference between the Pats of 03 + 04, and this team, they had more 3 down players. Opposing teams didn't know where the pass rush was coming from. Unfortunately this team is still going to have to use a lot of sub packages, which won't happen if the opposition uses a hurry up or no huddle offense.
 
Re: Idle thoughts - the post draft overview....

The signing of Warren goes under the radar because, well, because Gerard Warren sucks. I sincerely hope that he doesn't have to see any playing time this year and is just camp fodder. I do love the signings of Crumpler and Holt, though. And I feel as if we had a solid draft once again this year.

As a rotational DL he might work. You're right, Gerard does kinda suck though. Damione Lewis is better I think. I hope Deaderick plays well enough to get Gerard cut. When I saw him he was always playing opposite the LT and LG at Alabama. I think the DL will play as well as we need them to play. We do have two exceptional players in Ty and Vince.

I think the run defense fell apart at inside linebacker and LOLB behind Ty Warren. In other words, we needed an upgrade for Guyton, Mayo to get healthy, and someone to play better than AD. As of now we've added more strength inside with Mac and Spikes. An upgrade at LOLB is yet to be determined.
 
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Re: Idle thoughts - the post draft overview....

Warren has been a starter in the NFL for 8 years, granted he's been on 3 teams, most of them bad. He's a pretty average player I expect him to start and be an upgrade from what Jarvis Green gave us last year. Sucks is a little harsh.

Exactly, Gerard Warren is a "more" than serviceable RDE in our defense and he'll be a solid starter over there. I think people look at him and his high draft status and draw an unfair conclusion of him as a player. He plays more like a solid 2nd or 3rd round selection instead of a R1 top 5. It was a great signing, he reminds me alot of Ty Warren, real solid at the point of attack, he'll hold his ground and provide occasional QB pressure. I have no issues with this at all.

Back to the original post. Well said, count me as one of the guys on the value of landing a Dez Bryant at 24 crowd. Talk about value ! It's Randy Moss of 98 all over again. He will be a bona-fide star in this league, there is no doubt in my mind, Miles Austin has said as much himself as have so many others who have seen what he brings to the table, he has all the goods as they say and he's ready now. It will be painful for us to have to watch him light it up in Dallas and we can think, "man, what could have been". Oh well, as BB says, "It is what it is", we have to live with BB's decision to pass on him. Ditto for Clay Matthews, "It is what it is". So we move on. Julio Jones, we turn our lonely eyes to you in April 2011.

You are correct, aside from Big Willie, we really never had a great, dominant pass rusher in those great defenses. It was a great secondary that allowed the DC to get real creative with saftey, corner and ILB blitzes (and disguised to the hilt) which made the pass rush of those teams so effective. We have gone away from that recently and as you say, it may be related to the poor secondary play, which I understand and now with the athletism we have in the def backfield along with the drafting of Spikes, I can see this scheme coming back into our D to account for the lack of the pass-rushing OLB while Cunningham develops.
 
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Re: Idle thoughts - the post draft overview....

Gerard Warren is the kinda player that everyone knows because he was drafted high. He is also the kind of player that everyone rights off as sucky before he's on your team and then right after he leaves. He's like Joey Harrington. (Guys like this are usually QBs) He isn't "solid" either. "Solid" is just a euphamism for "sucky" anyway. These guys continue to "flash" talent just enough to hang around for a decade.
 
I highly doubt Cunningham was brought in to be a McGinest replacement. He's much more comparable to Vrable in terms of measurables and skillset.

They are three different people. I'll leave it at that.
 
Re: Idle thoughts - the post draft overview....

Back to the original post. Well said, count me as one of the guys on the value of landing a Dez Bryant at 24 crowd. Talk about value ! It's Randy Moss of 98 all over again. He will be a bona-fide star in this league, there is no doubt in my mind, Miles Austin has said as much himself as have so many others who have seen what he brings to the table, he has all the goods as they say and he's ready now.

You miss my point Riddler, the issue ISN'T about the potential talent of Bryant (and I have a lot of questions that go beyond his questionable work ethic, character, intelligence, etc). The point is which player is going to get you more wins, make more plays, be on the field for you. Its NOT to see which player excites the fans/media or fills the seats.

The false comparisons being made by you and others to Randy Moss couldn't be further from the truth and have been debunked several times in many threads. This kid MAY turn out to be a good NFL WR, but he IS NOT another Randy Moss. Most of the draft geeks think there might be FOUR guys available NEXT year who are all BETTER prospects than Bryant. Are THEY all the next Randy Moss. :rolleyes:

BB didn't draft the Player you WANT, He drafted the player he NEEDED to get the maximum amount of wins for the Pats. He might be a good player, but he wouldn't have been a 'difference maker' on THIS team.
 
Re: Idle thoughts - the post draft overview....

The signing of Warren goes under the radar because, well, because Gerard Warren sucks. I sincerely hope that he doesn't have to see any playing time this year and is just camp fodder. I do love the signings of Crumpler and Holt, though. And I feel as if we had a solid draft once again this year.

Why is it that the majority of post from Kontradiction are about someone on who "sucks" ?????
 
6. OK now we come to the crux of the matter. Where are we going to get our pass rush???????? ....

In the years the Pats were great, not just good, did they ever have anyone who could have been considered a "dominant type" pass rusher. How often, at a time when they perennially were in the top 10 sack team, did they have a guy with double digit sacks. Willie McGinest never did it on a BB team. Mike Vrabel did it ONCE. Yet from 2001-2007 the Pats were one of the top teams in the league in team sacks.

What we had in much of 2001-2007, and don't have now, was the luxury on defense of playing 10 against 9. When there are 10 of you and 9 offensive players, someone on your defense can't be properly accounted for, and sacks will follow. So will QB pressures. At that point a defense full of very-good-but-not-great players will play like champions, and you don't need a double-digit sack guy. We haven't had that luxury on defense since we lost a healthy Richard Seymour in his prime, sometime around 2005 or 2006. Even if we kept him last year I think those days were gone, but for those few years when he was at his best, the ripple effect throughout our D made it one of the NFL's best.
 
He did say DBs as opposed to CBs, and the safeties came a lot back then, Milloy in particular and the corners did come too.

Eagle eye - if you noticed, my stats were for the DBs, not just CBs..
 
Re: Idle thoughts - the post draft overview....

Why is it that the majority of post from Kontradiction are about someone on who "sucks" ?????

Should I put up my last 20 or so posts in response to this? You couldn't be more wrong if you tried, CoachK.

As for Warren being a DE, we'll see I guess. At 6'4" 325 lbs., he seems more suited for DT in the 4-3. Compare is height and weight to our resident DE mainstay Ty Warren: 6'5" 300 lbs. and Big Vince Wilfork (who I see Gerard Warren lining up next to as a DT in the 4-3): 6'2" 325 lbs. Heh, I'm not so sure that NFL.com isn't lying about Vince's weight just a little bit, though.
 
Re: Idle thoughts - the post draft overview....

So, your only objection to Warren at DE is that he needs to lose a few pounds? He has the size and frame to play DE.

Should I put up my last 20 or so posts in response to this? You couldn't be more wrong if you tried, CoachK.

As for Warren being a DE, we'll see I guess. At 6'4" 325 lbs., he seems more suited for DT in the 4-3. Compare is height and weight to our resident DE mainstay Ty Warren: 6'5" 300 lbs. and Big Vince Wilfork (who I see Gerard Warren lining up next to as a DT in the 4-3): 6'2" 325 lbs. Heh, I'm not so sure that NFL.com isn't lying about Vince's weight just a little bit, though.
 
Ted Johnson was a good player, not a great one.


Expecting a 2nd-round pick to eventually get to Ted Johnson level is even more plausible.

I have a different opinion and politely disagree; I always thought TJ was great player. I have never seen a linebacker shed blocks like him. He would hit O-Linemen and stun them and slide and make the tackle. No inside runner was safe with him lined up. I hope the Spikes is half the man that TJ was...

The difference between TJ and Katzenmoyer was startling; Katz suck to OLinemen like a bug on flypaper; TJ bounced off and made the play
 
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1. I think you can't underestimate the importance of the Pats looking to get tougher and more physical the last 2 off seasons. At some point during the past few years, the Pats seemed to lose its identity as a tough and gritty team. Its like we woke up one morning, and suddenly we became the Colts, all slick and finesse - and we were OK with that.
Thats exactly what we became, and I was never OK with that, because I knew where that transformation would lead - to failure.

I think it became very apparent to Bill with the loss to the Ravens. It looked remarkably similar to what we did to the Colts back in 2003. Maybe Bill already knew, but the Ravens game was a revelation to me. I knew then that it was time for the Pats to get back to its "workman-like" roots. It also made the strategy of the last 2 drafts make more sense. When you think on it, a lot of those picks, while they lack "star power", are gritty, nose in the dirt kind of players, with a heavy emphasis on OL and DL projects.
Agreed. With the loss of Charlie Weis & the emergence of the Randy Ratio, we forgot how to play post-Thanksgiving, outdoors-in-the-Northeast winning football.

2. I think the signings of Holt, Crumpler, and Warren, have largely gone under the radar, even in NE. BB has ALWAYS seemed to be a guy who has believed you need A LOT of good players on your team in order to make a run at the superbowl, not necessarily a lot of "stars" I think THAT has been one of the purposes of accumulating all those draft picks (24) in the last 2 years, and taking a lot of shots with so many low to mid level vet FA's. The Pats needed to get deeper as well as younger.
Agreed. I'd rather keep as backups proven vets instead of young, untalented crap.

3. I know there are some people who wanted Dez Bryant, but even if he turns out to be as good as some think, the Pats have had 9 consecutive winning seasons seasons (8 wining 10+ games), going with dirt dog WR types (and 3 years of Randy Moss). Skilled WRs are the most easily replaceable position.

Torry Holt (for right now) is more of the kind of guy that the Pats offense needs opposite Randy Moss. A guy who will be were Brady expects him to be, at the right time. A consummate route runner, who is versatile enough to be able to run the full tree. It was noted that he's been the exemplar Brady has used for years as how to run routes in the NFL. Yes he's on the wrong side of 30, but he STILL managed to catch 50 balls and 800 yds in a run first offense, catching passes from David Garard.

I would think that everybody would be thrilled if he managed the same production in OUR offense, catching balls from Tom Brady. And I for one wouldn't be shocked if he did slight better than that. Also for all you hoping that Deon Branch will suddenly become available. Let me drop this small item on you. In the past 3 years Torry Holt has missed ONE game. In the past 3 years Deion Branch has missed 15.
Agreed. I didn't want Dez Bryant in the 1st round, either. I also wanted Bill to (re-)sign Dante Stallworth & take a chance on Matt Coke Zero Jones.

4. Warren and Lewis are even MORE intriguing to me...But while Warren has never been the "great" player that Richard Seymour turned out to be, he HAS BEEN a very "good" player...A versitile guy who can set the edge, be physical, and be counted on be on the field ALL season. The guy has missed only 8 games in a nine year career. And as a bonus, he's a guy who will likely get you some pressure up the middle and 3-4 sacks
Gerard Warren may now be too old, fat & unathletic to be an effective 3-4 DE for us; his best position for us might be as backup NT & 4-3 run-stopping DT.

The Lewis pick up is more problematical in my view. He just seems to be a guy who has been good enough to start on a mediocre NFL teams for several of his years. And if all he's here to be is "proven" DL depth, then it doesn't look like a bad pick up; just not an impactful one.
DLewis looks too short to be an every-down 3-4 DE here; he seems more like a run-stopping 3-4 DE & pass-rushing 4-3 DT.

5. I think the real impact of these 2 pick ups is that it will make this team a better run stopping team. It will make it a more physical team, AND it will increase the effectiveness of Mike Wright, who tends to get beat up as the season goes on.
Wright was a very effective inside rusher, but had only one sack after the bye last season. I'm thinking that BB might be looking to use him more as a situational inside rusher this season, and get more consistent production out of him.
Agreed.

6. OK now we come to the crux of the matter. Where are we going to get our pass rush? That's what EVERYONE wants to know. Seem like a reasonable question, and we are all looking for THE guy in the draft of FA who can do this for us, right? I've been no different. I wouldn't have minded if the Pats had picked up a couple of MORE OL/DE rush prospects after the 3rd round, and they were there to be had (Griffin, Lane, Sapp etc). But then I got to thinking:

In the years the Pats were great, not just good, did they ever have anyone who could have been considered a "dominant type" pass rusher. How often, at a time when they perennially were a top 10 sack team, did they have a guy with double digit sacks? Willie McGinest never did it on a BB team. Mike Vrabel did it ONCE. Yet from 2001-2007 the Pats were one of the top teams in the league in team sacks.

So you have to ask yourself do we really NEED a "dominant sack guy" or do we just need to produce more sacks from the guys we already have, like we used to. Now when you think on THAT line, the McCourty pick starts to make MORE sense.

As the secondary declined over the last 3 years, so did the number of sacks, and its NOT a coincidence. The Pats used to get a lot of sacks FROM their DBs, plus more that other guys got BECAUSE of a DB blitz or good coverage. However when the coverage started to lag, BB couldn't afford to send DB's as much, OR have the complex schemes that worked so well in the "great" years.

Now the secondary is coming together. With McCourty, Boddin, Butler, Merriweather, Chung, Sanders, we are starting to acquire the talent, experience, and depth necessary to allow the DC to be more creative on passing downs and create more pressure, like we did back in the early days of this era.

Yes it WOULD be nice to have some guy who is likely to beat a guy one on one, but even the "dominant" rushers only win about 10% of those battles. I contend that with the defensive backfield on the up swing, both in talent AND depth, we will see a marked improvement in our pass rush, even with the guys we have.
I'm afraid I don't share your optimism re: an improved pass rush. While we might not have had a "dominant" pass-rush guy, what we did have on the edges - and our current group doesn't have - is Talent, at the top & at the bottom. This collection of never-weres & never-will-bes has Very Little Talent, anywhere. He who was at the bottom during the Good Old Days - TBC - is now at the top. 'Nuff sed.

7. And just how important ARE sacks in the great scheme of things? The Jets, who had the top D in the league, had exactly ONE more sack than the Pats. The world champion Saints and all the talk about their DC, had FOUR more. Also the Jets paid a ton more money to Bart Scott than we paid for TBC, and got 2 FEWER sacks.

If you check the top 5 teams in the league for Sacks, you'd find them in this order: Minnesota, Steelers, Dolphins, Eagles, and 49ers. The thing that immediately comes to mind when you look at that list, is that only TWO of those teams made the playoffs.
Pits-Dirt & San Fran were very close to making the POs, and the Doofins were AFCE champs in '08. Not exactly chopped liver there.

8. Obviously, putting "pressure" on the QB is what teams REALLY are looking for and what TRULY makes a pass rush effective. Is there a site that ranks the teams by QB pressures, hits, tips, etc? I'm sure there are and one of you has a link. It would be interesting to see if the number of sacks correlates with the other aspects of getting a good pass rush. Another stat I'd love to see is how often in a series where the QB is sacked does the offense have to punt.
So would I. I think that would be a very revealing statistic.

9. I also think that Crumpler is going to be a bigger factor this year than many people think. If it is true what they said about a slimmer faster Algie, then he could be more than just a blocking TE. At one time Crumpler was one of the top RECEIVING TE's in the league. While I don't expect THAT kind of a year, I do expect to see a resurrection of the TE being a significant part of the pass offense.
Crumpler Must be in better condition, incl. a significant loss of weight, in order to be anything more than just a somewhat better version of Kyle Brady.

10. And if you forgot, 2 TE's/2 WRs is my favorite offensive formation, since by alignment it causes a lot of problems for your defense, but that is the subject of another rant...

The best part of the 2-TE/2-WR formation is balance on both sides of Center, with the QB under Center & the RB directly behind him. Gives the defense 4 things to think about, and keeps all options open. Too often in the last 3 years, Bill & Skippy & BOB gave defenses only one thing to think about at any one time. That approach will never beat the Ravens or any other PO-caliber defense.

P.S.: Sorry for editing your OP, but I had to get under the 10K-character limit.
 
Re: Idle thoughts - the post draft overview....

So, your only objection to Warren at DE is that he needs to lose a few pounds? He has the size and frame to play DE.

A few pounds, and a few years. Warren might now just be too old, too slow & too fat to play an effective 3-4 DE here. He might as well eat a couple of extra Whoppers & compete for the backup 3-4 NT/4-3 DT role.
 
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