Idle thoughts - The "on to Indy" edition

[Oswlek]

Fair enough, Oswlek. Let's just move on.

Like I said, if your point is that we can't take much from the fact that Brady has either lost or barely won in the past five conference championships, then I definitely agree.

I don't believe that using the past 5 games as anything random, however--which is why I've come back with responses. Otherwise, I wouldn't have returned a comment.

Moving on...

So, what do you think is indicative of how this game will play out?

 

[supafly]

Moving on...

So, what do you think is indicative of how this game will play out?

I actually think that you hit it right on the head last week when you reminded everyone that we're all just pretty much wasting time with our discussions.

I hate to say it, b/c I love posting here, and consider it a hobby--but we obviously have no idea as to how the game is going to go. It's the sole purpose for why I stopped betting on the games a couple of years ago.

If the defense plays better than last week, we have an excellent chance at winning (IMO). If they allow another 31 points, it will be a very close game. Basic? Yes...but probably as true as true can be.

 

[supafly]

I also think that the Indy Colts are much improved from the last time we played them, though.

They have a better DL with the return of A.Jones, and they have some viable secondary options which was proven with the 12th ranked pass defense this year. Toler, Davis, Adams (6 interceptions, along with 2 off of Brady last time), and Landry aren't quite as bad as some have portrayed them.

They also have 2 TEs that can take advantage of some weaknesses in the middle, as well as being able to keep us occupied with the likes of their receiving group. I also think that Moncrief is not a guy to fall asleep on.

Like I said before the postseason started, we're going to have to run the damn ball. We lucked out a bit in the sense that we didn't need to run vs. BAL, but I'd have a hard time seeing that continue if we're going to win the next 2 games. Just my opinion.

 

[Oswlek]

I actually think that you hit it right on the head last week when you reminded everyone that we're all just pretty much wasting time with our discussions.

I was really just talking about myself.

I hate to say it, b/c I love posting here, and consider it a hobby--but we obviously have no idea as to how the game is going to go.

We never do. If I said Tom will have two sacks and several hits plus a pick in the first half, Stork would go down early and Baltimore would score 28 points in the first 40 minutes.... I don't think a single person would say NE wins that game.

But it is still fun to jabber about, and not all of what we say is useless chatter. I learn a lot about the game hanging around here, and even when we get things wrong it is usually packaged with plenty of prescient stuff as well.

 

[Oswlek]

I also think that the Indy Colts are much improved from the last time we played them, though.

Ha! We are in opposite ends of the ring on this one as well, it seems.

The "Colts are so much better!" narrative is interesting considering that they had arguably the least impressive December of any AFC playoff team. Even if I ignore getting curb stomped in Dallas (game meant nothing, sat Hilton), they still were seriously outplayed by Cleveland, could do nothing against Houston and weren't very impressive against TN (though it was a season ender, so it probably shouldn't count either).

As for their much improved running game, this is the yardage by their leading rusher (per game) since December: 37, 60, 3, 35, 56, 63. The 60 and 56 came against two of the worst run defenses in the league, Cleveland and Cincy, and the first 37 was actually Luck. They only had one game that even approaches "impressive" and that is going for 99 on a very good Denver defense. Of course, Denver's offensive woes gave Indy 34 minutes and 11 drives to tally that yardage and Herron only went off for 2.7 ypc.

Run defense does appear improved, but leading up to the earlier game, Balt, Hou, Cincy, Pitt and NYG went off for 90, 136, 32, 117 and 98 respectively. It isn't like everyone was cracking 200 on them and now they've crept back to respectability.

Of course, there are some personnel improvements, with injured guys returning, but overall the playoff success looks far more like favorable match ups than development since November.

 

[supafly]

Ha! We are in opposite ends of the ring on this one as well, it seems.

I agree that they didn't look too hot down the stretch in December, but we've also seen examples of teams just like that. The NYG and BAL Ravens come to mind as teams who got hot once the tournament started, yet looked awful right beforehand.

I think the fact that they got some healthy players back, have 2 capable TEs now, Moncrief, and Arthur Jones makes them more dangerous than last time. I also think they have to have some momentum that they'll try to continue riding from last week and the week before, as well.

 

[Oswlek]

The NYG and BAL Ravens come to mind as teams who got hot once the tournament started, yet looked awful right beforehand.

Absolutely, but I'm still struggling to look past how easily NE has dispatched Indy lately. Yes, NE killed the Jets in 2010, but they lost to them as well. Similarly, Baltimore was terrible down the stretch in 2012, but they "beat" NE earlier and were many people's AFC pick heading into that year. In 2011, NY beat NE and gave GB a run for their money. The 2007 Giant team gave NE a serious scare and really dominated them on the lines. It took perhaps the greatest game of Brady's career to finally put a stake in them.

By comparison, Indy hasn't come within 20 points of the Patriots a single time with Luck. They also weren't impressive in many of their games against better competition.

It really would be a 2007 Giant-esque upset if the Colts win this game. They'll have to play substantially better than they have at any point this year, including the playoffs.

 

[sevengables_2207]

I look at this game and ask myself if the Colts are drastically improved from the team that lost by 20 + points back in November on SNF.

I have to answer that while there may be some improvement (although the loss in Dallas was disturbing), I do not see the Colts making up the difference, which will pretty much have to be some combination of Luck playing the game of his life, while their defense either dominates or capitalizes on turnovers with easy points.

While not impossible, I find the odds of the above scenario unfolding slim. I am not counting the Colts out (nothing should be presumed in post-season NFL games), but the matchup clearly signifies that the Patriots are the superior TEAM.

 

[Fencer]

They totally shut down the outside pass rush. Was that a result of poor play by Denver or great play by Indy?

Were there any more holding calls in that game than in ours?

 

[Fencer]

The Patriots defense has three persistent weaknesses:

• Pass rush (especially) against mobile QBs.
• Run defense (especially) in sub defenses.
• Tight ends.

Assuming that this will be sub-heavy game against a mobile QB on a team with a variety of competent TEs, we have a match-up that could stress the Patriots' defense. That's one reason for BB et al. to scheme carefully. The other reason is that Luck is still young enough to be fooled.

I expect the trickery to work.

 

[supafly]

Absolutely, but I'm still struggling to look past how easily NE has dispatched Indy lately. Yes, NE killed the Jets in 2010, but they lost to them as well. Similarly, Baltimore was terrible down the stretch in 2012, but they "beat" NE earlier and were many people's AFC pick heading into that year. In 2011, NY beat NE and gave GB a run for their money. The 2007 Giant team gave NE a serious scare and really dominated them on the lines. It took perhaps the greatest game of Brady's career to finally put a stake in them.

By comparison, Indy hasn't come within 20 points of the Patriots a single time with Luck. They also weren't impressive in many of their games against better competition.

It really would be a 2007 Giant-esque upset if the Colts win this game. They'll have to play substantially better than they have at any point this year, including the playoffs.

I don't think IND will win the game, but I do think that they could give us a rough time under certain circumstances. Hopefully, we can catch our breath from last week and potentially the next game as well, and see a double digit 13 point victory. That would be just fine with me.

 

[SVN]

Iam sure no one gave the pats a chance vs the steelers in 2001 AFCCG. It was a forgone conclusion the rams and steelers will play in the SB. Teams like those pats and these colts which have no pressure on them can cause problems.I think as a fan we will be frustrated watching this game because luck is going to make short checkdown after checkdown with our defense allowing it on purpose to stop the big play and then playing 3rd down and red zone defense to keep them out of the EZ. In fact one of the early issues vs the ravens was they hardly faced any 3rd downs. If we can get ahead and make them throw deep consistently and make them one dimensional I would be happy.