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idle thoughts - pre-game musings

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by patfanken, Sep 24, 2011.

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  1. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #91 Jersey

    Very hard to get a handle on this game....emotionally. On the logical side the Bills are a worthy opponent and needs to be respected, but as a fan, its hard to get up for a team you've seen beaten 15 times in a row. Besides, over time, the Bills have become the try hard, lovable losers of the division. A working class team, from a working class town, with a QB from Harvard, the owners of the Stevie Johnson legend, and BB's favorite RB.

    So while every rational thread in your body is telling you that this is a team that can beat the Pats for all the reasons we will discuss below, somehow its hard to get past the mindset of the last eight years. So while we know it CAN happen, we will all be very surprised IF it does. And btw, if it does happen, and we are honest with ourselves, there will be a small part of us, the part that grew up loving the try hard, underdog ethos of so many Pats teams of the first 3 decades of its history, which will smile, if only for a second, at the Bills accomplishment.

    Concerns:
    1. Injuries - While it won't be much of a story for the national media (and that's what BB wants) the Pats are likely to be down several starters for this game.on both sides of the ball.

    a. Volmer's injury is the one that bothers me the most. Not for just tomorrow, but long term. The back is a tricky thing to have hurt. While Solder's faster than expected development makes the RT position as solid as if Volmer was playing, it hurts our depth in 2 ways. One we will be in big trouble if Light or Solder go down. Secondly, I would have thought that if Volmer had played, Solder would have had a BIG role as the Blocking TE against a teams whose major weakness this year has been setting the edge. Now I have no idea who will play that role....or how well they will play it.

    b. Chung's likelihood of playing dimmed a bit with Ventrone's promotion., but even if he'd played his productivity would have been severely diminished by the cast on his hand. Especially for a guy who tends to use a lot of "hands on" techniques when he's in pass coverage. The same goes for Barrett

    c. If that's not enough, its clear to us that Arrington, Boddin, and Dowling, will all be playing with assorted Dings...if they play. I don't know how to say it, but our already thin secondary has been decimated.

    d. I don't know too many teams, if any, who could lose their starting C AND RT and not skip a beat. Our depth may be painfully thin at this moment, but is anyone worried at ALL about the 2 guys who are replacing Koppen and Volmer. I truly believe that if neither gets hurt, the OL will show NO drop in productivity.

    e. Its kind of gone under the radar that we are also getting hit up on the DL. We have lost Pryor for the year, and its not looking good for Wright. Not a lot of team would be able to recover from losing 2 key guys in their DL rotation and have it hardly be noticed

    I also worry about what we will get from Albert on Sunday....IF he plays. IIRC he didn't practice much this week.

    f. That's lot of holes to fill and question marks to answer, if we were playing at home, or playing a team that DIDN'T lead the league in scoring OR, had the QB with the highest QBR

    3. The most successful formation, as well as the one that was used the most in the first 2 games was the 2 and 3 TE formations. Well, with Solder playing RT, can someone tell me who the 2nd TE is going to be. OR are we going to revert to the old days of the Pats of the Pats using more 3 and 4 WR sets.

    This concerns me because this would seem to be the game where you would want to see more of a concerted effort to run the ball and take time off the clock. Crowd nose is less of a factor when you run the ball.

    2. The Bills-

    a. Perhaps the of all the positive stats I've heard this week, the one that both impresses me AND scares me the most, is the one that pointed out that the Bills OL has allowed only ONE sack of Fitzpatrick thus far in the first 2 games (IIRC the Pats have allowed 4 ...at least) Now 4 sacks is a pretty good number for a team that has thrown the ball close to a 100 times already this season, but to have only ONE in over 70 attempts is better still.

    b. BTW - while KC and Oakland may be questionable opponents, overall, they both, on paper at least. have the talent on the front seven that should have presented more of a pass rush threat than the Pats will have (on paper) Sunday.

    c. I'm comforted somewhat that the key to the game will be if the Pats will be able to stop the run, from the best RB in the league (at this point) If the Pats can hold the Bills to under 100 yds it will be good effort. The Pats have been pretty good at controlling the opponents run game to reasonable levels.

    Keys to a Pats win - nothing earth shattering here. Its the usual

    1. Win the TO battle by +2. The Pats have been very good at NOT laying the ball on the ground, but have been inconsistent in creating TOs

    2. No YAC. The Bill like to run a spread offense and throw relatively short passes that allow for a lot of YAC, much like the Pats. Good tackling will be very important.

    3. Play the Bills special teams to a stand off. The bright spot of every Bill team has consistently been their special teams. We have to either shut them down, or rise to their level. Which will be tough since we don]t even know if we will have a punter.

    4,Control the clock. This should be a no brainer, especially on the road, but we haven't done it much thus far. Most of our scoring drives run in the 3-5 minute range, rather than the 7-10 minute variety that makes life easy for the defense.

    What we should look for.

    On offense:

    With only one TE available, we should see OCHO be targeted over 5 times. and a lot more 3 and 4 WR sets

    On Defense - We will start with rushing 4 and playing a 5 under tight zone to force Fitzgerald to throw the ball deep into the 2 deep safeties. The key to the success of that will be to keep the TE from splitting the coverage in the seam. One way to do this is to make Fitzgerald think he has 2 deep, and after the snap wind up in cover 3 That way he will be throwing right into coverage (a LB underneath and a S over the top)

    I think we will blitz a little more (up from only about 10%) disguising Defenses and coming off the corners and late stems up the middle- It will depend on how successful the CBs are being physical with the Bill WRs

    Results-

    We have played from ahead so often the last few years, I'd almost like to see us overcome some early adversity and win this thing in comeback fashion. Time to test our Mental Toughness. The all the injuries affords us the chance to see if we can be tougher than that 2009 team we saw in the BB documentary This will be a very good test.
     
  2. TheSolderKing

    TheSolderKing In the Starting Line-Up

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    Steve Johnson Drops Game Winning Touch Down REVIEW - YouTube

    ^(the Big Drop) I swear at the time Toucher and Rich did not know who this guy was. I found out he was the dude that dropped an easy game winning TD vs. STEELERS in OT in 2010.



    YA BOY Feat CIK.MONEY "Stevie Johnson" Video [HD] - YouTube (the song)



    we need Steve Johnson to make BIG drops like this.


    Quite posssibly the worst song ever thnx for the Laughs Toucher and Rich:)

    there is a song about this garbage http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLwx9Qj7Mho
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2011
  3. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    I've been pretty satisfied with the growth of the defense. They are obviously still working some things out but there have been enough flashes to see they are on the right track.

    That being said, the defense should be able to do well tomorrow. The Bills OL isn't overly strong (Bell, Levitre, Wood, Rinehart and Pears) and should have problems with the Pats DL even without blitzing.

    Steve (I refuse to call a grown man Stevie) Johnson has a groin injury and Roscoe Parrish is on IR with Marcus Easley. Assuming Bodden and Dowling both play, the Pats should be OK covering the receivers in the Bills' spread.

    I'm not anticipating a shutout and the final stats could be deceiving if the Pats offense blows up again...but this is a game the Pats should own and will be a nice early report card for the defense.
     
  4. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    I found out who Johnson was when he single handedly cost me a FF game last year with 3 or 4 TD's :mad::mad:

    As for the game, the Bills already worried me with the way their offense was playing. With the injuries, I'm very concerned. Might be our toughest matchup of the year until the Jets showdown.
     
  5. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    To say this isn't the best chance since 2003 for the Bills to finally get over the hump and beat the Pats is wrong.

    They got us right where they need us...in front of a rowdy crowd in west NY with a Bills team that has improved and is unbeaten and was last decent when Bledsoe was there and not to mention the Pats are one messed up and beaten down secondary at this time.

    If they don't beat us tomorrow...they may have to wait until Brady retires.

    That being said,I expect an unexpected lower score than most predict with the Pats eeking out a close game with a score in the mid 20s
     
  6. Patriot to the Core

    Patriot to the Core Practice Squad Player

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    Good read, really looking forward to this game, even with all the injured player's sidelined I still believe we will win. Another late sunday night tomorrow. . . .
     
  7. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    I am nervous..and even more nervous/pissed i can't watch the game :mad::mad:


    I wouldn't say out secondary is decimated..no one is out..just playing with some dings..it's the NFL..**** happens...if they can pull this out it will make them stronger in the long run
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2011
  8. borg

    borg In the Starting Line-Up

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    Pats need to get a quick lead to limit Buffs running game. I can't see the Pats depleted DTs holding up in a grind it out game. Pats are crazy thin at DT, T, TE, C...and S is inexperienced. I'm worried.

    Just checked Vegas lines. Pats opened at -9......now -7. The over/under has gone from 51 to 54.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2011
  9. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    Vegas lines have nothing to do with what team is favored it win...all depends on what bets people are placing

    Oh and BTW...i wish we still had Sanders...
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2011
  10. captain stone

    captain stone Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    No Jersey Selected

    Just to update PFK's opening post: both Chung & Uncle Al are Out Sunday.

    This is now officially (IMHO) the Worst set of Safeties we've had avail. for a game
    since before Bill Parcells was named HC.
     
  11. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    People are going to have to realize that these Safeties are going to give up plays tomorrow..no way around it
     
  12. BigMike

    BigMike PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This is going to be a shootout tomorrow on both sides - Brady bomb show scoring as much as he can to make up for god knows how many yards of offense the Bills will be running up.
     
  13. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    It's so weird to say...Brandy needs to outgun the Bills...
     
  14. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    She would make a very attractive QB,not sure how good her throws will be though

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    Would love to see her in some tight pants on the field :D
     
  16. TheTruth3402

    TheTruth3402 On the Game Day Roster

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    #12 Jersey

    I always enjoy your idle thoughts, Ken. Thanks for posting!

    The only point on which I would disagree would be making Fitz throw deep at our safeties. BUF has 2 good deep targets in Johnson and Nelson. With the safety position in flux and with the way VJax lit us up last week, I would love to see the corners come up and press.

    With Parrish out, the Bills don't have a great slot option. Chandler hasn't shown that he can be a consistent target over the middle and neither have the other receivers.

    Keep at least 1 safety back, press the receivers and focus on Jackson and Spiller (especially running but also in the pass game) and get pressure on Fitzpatrick. I'd take my chances that he won't be able to consistently make accurate throws over the middle and move the chains.
     
  17. Jackson 2

    Jackson 2 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    I always think we're going to win, but I have bad feeling about this one. I hope I'm wrong.
     
  18. Tunescribe

    Tunescribe PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #61 Jersey

    Huh? Can't this happen at the expense of some other team? Give me a freaking break and speak for yourself ONLY. You sound like something akin to an evangelist preacher. I want no part of feeling good about getting beat by Buffalo, if and when it happens.
     
  19. E1Downey

    E1Downey Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    My gut feelings seem to have like a 80% success rate which I would say is pretty good.(although I'm sure I remember the correct instances far more than the wrong ones) Anyway, I felt pretty iffy about the last two games and couldn't have been more wrong lol so hopefully you are too!
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2011
  20. E1Downey

    E1Downey Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Hehe I agree. I've felt bad for them these past few years but I definitely haven't felt THAT bad lol
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2011
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