idle thoughts - pre-game musings

[Metaphors]

This is going to be a shootout tomorrow on both sides - Brady bomb show scoring as much as he can to make up for god knows how many yards of offense the Bills will be running up.

While anything is possible, I'm not sure when the Bills became the '99 Rams. Consider:

- The Chiefs are a dumpster fire this year, including fumbling the opening kickoff of their season. The Bills had scoring drives of 23, 1, 32 and 28 yards against them.

- The Raiders were up 21-3 at the half against the Bills. Then gave up 5 straight TD drives to Bills, gifting them with 6 2nd half penalties (4 for 1st downs) for 65 yards...including a penalty for challenging an unchallengable play.

- Fitzpatrick has a completion percentage of 63.4%...slightly better than the San-grenade and Tavaris "What do I have to do to get benched" Jackson. Slightly worse than Matt Cassel.

- Fitzpatrick has a YPA of 6.6. Not quite as good as Alex Smith but MUCH better than Tavaris "Seriously, Charlie Whitehurst is making $8M backing me up" Jackson.

- Fitzpatrick has 7 TD passes but only 1 outside the 12 yd line and only 2 outside the 7 yd line.

- Fred Jackson leads the league in rushing but he got nearly half of his yards in 3 runs against the Raiders (who were 29th against the run last year).

The only fear I have against the Bills offense is endless dumpoffs to Jackson and Spiller, resulting in death by 1000 paper cuts. Outside of the "any given Sunday" phenomenon, I just don't see why this is a bad matchup for the Pats in general or their defense in particular.

 

[mgteich]

We haven't been so NOT ready for Buffalo since the last time they won.

 

[patfanken]

- Fred Jackson leads the league in rushing but he got nearly half of his yards in 3 runs against the Raiders (who were 29th against the run last year).

The only fear I have against the Bills offense is endless dumpoffs to Jackson and Spiller, resulting in death by 1000 paper cuts. Outside of the "any given Sunday" phenomenon, I just don't see why this is a bad matchup for the Pats in general or their defense in particular.

Well, I can only hope that you are right on the money M. BTW - You bring up an interesting point that I was going to make in my original post, but I forgot about it as I rambled on....and on....and on

When I had read that Oakland had given up over 220 yds to the Buffalo running attack,. I couldn't help wonder what a lot of Pats fans would be thinking if the Pats had ever given up even close to that many rushing yards. But why wonder when I already KNOW what they'd be thinking. They'd be thinking, "we NEVER should have traded Richard Seymour". Or "if the Pats hadn't been so cheap, we never would have had to trade Seymour".

Well, as you pointed out the Raiders were 29th LAST season against the run, and are 27th currently all the time with Richard Seymour playing at a supposedly very high level, as the highest paid DLman....by far. I'm not saying its Seymour's fault that the Raiders suck against the run. But it WOULD be fair to point out that having Richard Seymour on your team does NOT ensure that you will be able to stop the run at high levels. Just food for thought

 

[Patspsycho]

While anything is possible, I'm not sure when the Bills became the '99 Rams. Consider:

- The Chiefs are a dumpster fire this year, including fumbling the opening kickoff of their season. The Bills had scoring drives of 23, 1, 32 and 28 yards against them.

- The Raiders were up 21-3 at the half against the Bills. Then gave up 5 straight TD drives to Bills, gifting them with 6 2nd half penalties (4 for 1st downs) for 65 yards...including a penalty for challenging an unchallengable play.

- Fitzpatrick has a completion percentage of 63.4%...slightly better than the San-grenade and Tavaris "What do I have to do to get benched" Jackson. Slightly worse than Matt Cassel.

- Fitzpatrick has a YPA of 6.6. Not quite as good as Alex Smith but MUCH better than Tavaris "Seriously, Charlie Whitehurst is making $8M backing me up" Jackson.

- Fitzpatrick has 7 TD passes but only 1 outside the 12 yd line and only 2 outside the 7 yd line.

- Fred Jackson leads the league in rushing but he got nearly half of his yards in 3 runs against the Raiders (who were 29th against the run last year).

The only fear I have against the Bills offense is endless dumpoffs to Jackson and Spiller, resulting in death by 1000 paper cuts. Outside of the "any given Sunday" phenomenon, I just don't see why this is a bad matchup for the Pats in general or their defense in particular.

You're forgetting that it's their superbowl. They're going to be foaming at the mouth with blood in their eyes, and a sold out screaming stadium that will put them into convulsions. It'll be interesting to see how we withstand the manic energy they are sure to come out with. Don't forget that Bills/Cowboys game from a few years back.

 

[Metaphors]

You're forgetting that it's their superbowl.

By the logic, the Pats should be in trouble against every team they play. You don't think the Fins were up for their home opener? Wasn't last week the game where the Bolts get the early season monkey off their backs and stake their claim as an elite team?

They're going to be foaming at the mouth with blood in their eyes, and a sold out screaming stadium that will put them into convulsions. It'll be interesting to see how we withstand the manic energy they are sure to come out with.

Is that the same energy that had them down 21-3 against the Raiders at halftime in their home opener?

Don't forget that Bills/Cowboys game from a few years back.

How many Bills players lining up Sunday were in that game? The only 2 I can think of (McGee and Parrish) are both hurt. These guys have almost no history behind them. While it could play out like the Browns game last year, I considered that game more of a fluke than an omen.

Like that Dallas game, it seems like Buffalo's best chance is for the Pats to implode (two pick-6's and a kickoff TD). That is what happened in KC. And while it does seem like Brady is good for one dud a year, I don't think this is it. And if the Bills go down 21-3 to the Pats like they did at home to the cross-country-1pm-game Raiders, I'm thinking they are gonna have a bad day.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

We haven't been so NOT ready for Buffalo since the last time they won.

I think we are ready but it might be difficult...I can't believe the game spread is -9 when this game is at Buffalo.....I would take those points easily if I were to bet on the game.

The Patriots have a gun,but due to injury there is not a full chamber to fire away.

 

[supafly]

We haven't been so NOT ready for Buffalo since the last time they won.

I am guessing that you say this due to the injury concerns? What are you more concerned with? Vollmer, Hernandez, Haynesworth, or Chung? It'd definitely be Chung for me, with Hernandez a close 2nd.

Otherwise, I would respectfully disagree that either 09 game was equally 'not totally ready' just as much or more--especially considering the first one was their season opener with TFB in his first game back. Regardless, your point is certainly valid that this particular matchup has the potential to be tough, but then again--going to BUF in any year isn't exactly considered an easy game by me.

I certainly agree that it has all the potential in the world to be a very closely fought game, but when you play a divisional rival on the road that is what you're in for.

It's not as much the injury concerns for me, as it is being worried about the defense still. One way or another, we will know a lot more about the defense tomorrow, and I do expect BUF to put something in the mid-20's or more up.

 

[supafly]

I think we are ready but it might be difficult...I can't believe the game spread is -9 when this game is at Buffalo.....I would take those points easily if I were to bet on the game.
The Patriots have a gun,but due to injury there is not a full chamber to fire away.

Apparently, many feel the same exact way as you do, as the game has now gone down a full 2 pts.

All of those BUF backers bringing down the spread. At the same time, the total has gone up from 51 to 54, so a very high majority are expectring a shootout in a close, one-score game.

This defense certainly has not gotten any more respect from around the NFL than last yr to this point, maybe even less respect than last yr. Hopefully, they can prove everyone wrong..

 

[supafly]

While anything is possible, I'm not sure when the Bills became the '99 Rams.

All great points, Metaphors. Nice analysis.

The reason I have concerns for this particular game is due to the fact that BUF has the potential to exploit our weaknesses in several areas. Seeing SD complete 15 passes to their RB's last week is likely something that BUF will try to exploit, and they may be able to do it well.

The safety concerns are another area that has potential to be problematic..hell, the secondary itself as a whole has worried me to this point. We'll have to hope that McCourty has a better game, and that this defense can produce a couple of timely turnovers. Otherwise, it probably will be close.

The added excitement and attn that BUF and their fans have been receiving all week long is obviously not going to help either. That was something that the OAK game last week did not feature. I expect it to be a tough environment, and so does BB as we've heard reports of the music blaring in practice etc. Nothing new, but it will be a tough divisional road game in my opinion.

Hopefully, your stats prove to be more worthy than all of our concerns. It's the defense that is making us all worried. When else would we be down a TE or a safety and have so many posters so worried about playing the damn Bills? Whether people want to admit it or not, it has to be the defense. We need a solid game from this defense, injuries be damned.

 

[DarrylS]

On Defense - We will start with rushing 4 and playing a 5 under tight zone to force Fitzgerald to throw the ball deep into the 2 deep safeties. The key to the success of that will be to keep the TE from splitting the coverage in the seam. One way to do this is to make Fitzgerald think he has 2 deep, and after the snap wind up in cover 3 That way he will be throwing right into coverage (a LB underneath and a S over the top)

We have played from ahead so often the last few years, I'd almost like to see us overcome some early adversity and win this thing in comeback fashion. Time to test our Mental Toughness. The all the injuries affords us the chance to see if we can be tougher than that 2009 team we saw in the BB documentary This will be a very good test.

Do not wish to minimize your thoughts, but these things strike me as the key.. our D has got to put pressure on Fitzpatrick and control Fred Jackson, can they do it?? Not really sure if they have enough manpower, but in one of the exhibition games they were able to do this and perhaps it is time to try those schemes again.

The whole mental toughness thing could be paramount today, everybody needs to do their job well and the substitutes have to play like they have been there before..

This will be a good test to see what kind of team this actually is.. hopefully there will be no more significant injuries..

 

[ausbacker]

Do not wish to minimize your thoughts, but these things strike me as the key.. our D has got to put pressure on Fitzpatrick and control Fred Jackson, can they do it?? Not really sure if they have enough manpower, but in one of the exhibition games they were able to do this and perhaps it is time to try those schemes again.

The whole mental toughness thing could be paramount today, everybody needs to do their job well and the substitutes have to play like they have been there before..

This will be a good test to see what kind of team this actually is.. hopefully there will be no more significant injuries..

I'd be reasonably pleased and confident of victory if the Patriots shutdown Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Jackson is Buffalo's barometer. Force Fitzpatrick to gun sling down the field and I'm confident the Patriots D may be able to force some turnovers if the Bills are forced into a predominate passing attack. No Sanchez seam and dump off routes, make him go at the corners and let Bodden, Dowling and McCourty do their best.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

The normal probability of loss has been raised by critical early season Pats injuries that force abandonment of the successful Hydra TE offense. So like in ANY NFL game (q.v. Browns in 2010) there's a possibility that the Pats lay an egg or take a last minute loss. That said, I predict that the every game Cassandras here who week after week have "bad feelings about this one" will be back in pure blind squirrell fashion with posts touting their prescience. Not even BB or anyone "knows" what will happen. What he and anyone understanding this team sport does know is that their team has to play well, or lose.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't get all the panic. The safeties were lousy as a group before Chung got hurt, and they're lousy now, but Chung's not much in the passing game, so not having him out there against this team isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially if it means that the Patriots will play more CBs. Haynesworth would have been nice to havve healthy, but the Bills' O-line sucks, so the Patriots should be able to pressure Fitzpatrickgeraldwilliams without him. Outside of depth, I don't really see an issue on defense, and I don't think Hernandez being out is going to be the key that lets the Bills defense shut down the Patriots.





Patriots by double digits

 

[patfanken]

The normal probability of loss has been raised by critical early season Pats injuries that force abandonment of the successful Hydra TE offense. So like in ANY NFL game (q.v. Browns in 2010) there's a possibility that the Pats lay an egg or take a last minute loss. That said, I predict that the every game Cassandras here who week after week have "bad feelings about this one" will be back in pure blind squirrell fashion with posts touting their prescience. Not even BB or anyone "knows" what will happen. What he and anyone understanding this team sport does know is that their team has to play well, or lose.

Well the unfortunate reality is that at some point this season, this team is very likely to lose 2-4 games and no one here would blink an eye, since 12-4 and 14-2 was the range of most
preseason predictions. The ironic thing is that whenever those loses occur, there will be panic in the streets, wondering if this is just the beginning of the end of an era. Scapegoats will be named and calls for changes will be made. It will happen in the media and it will happen HERE. I guess its just the nature of expectations.

 

[ralmat55]

I'm very interested to see how today's game plays out. If the pats win this game missing 3 or 4 (depends on what you think of haynesworth) of their best players against a ramped up Bills team, I'll be thinking this team might truly be up to having a "Super" season.

They need to control the Bills running game out of their nickel defense. This was a huge problem for them last year and today's biggest challenge. I'm hoping they fully imbrace their new aggressive scheme and attack. Bring a 5th rusher both to contain the run but also turn the heat up on Fitzpatrick. Let's see if the Pats' CBs are up to the test.

On offense with Hernandez and vollmer out, we'll be seeing more 3 WR sets but I also wouldn't be surprised if Matthew Slater gets as many reps as #85. Mike Reiss has hinted in his blog and tweets this week a larger role for Stevan Ridley in this game. My guess is he knows something rather than just having a hunch. With only 1 TE, I wouldn't be surprised if we see more old-fashioned two-back formations both with Ridley or Green-Ellis at fullback with Dane Fletcher there in short-yardage situations. As we saw last week, slipping RBs out of the backfield to catch passes can be a royal pain to a defense.

Belichick is at his best when the situation calls for being creative. I look forward to seeing what he come up with.