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I want to make this completely free of any “deflategate” or Goodell talk. At this point of the proceedings there is nothing to be done about either, so why include them into our final thoughts. Not that there still isn’t tons of stuff to say, but just not here or now. I would like to think that our day will come to pass on this matter, but I’m not holding my breath.
I’m going to make just one assumption before I start. That is that the fix isn’t in with the refs. I don’t expect an even game, just one that the bias hasn’t been predetermined. As long as the “bad calls” are fairly evenly distributed, I’ll be OK. If that’s the case, then I’ll start with my prediction at the top and then justify it with my comments. OK? Then let’s get going.
I’m going to make just one assumption before I start. That is that the fix isn’t in with the refs. I don’t expect an even game, just one that the bias hasn’t been predetermined. As long as the “bad calls” are fairly evenly distributed, I’ll be OK. If that’s the case, then I’ll start with my prediction at the top and then justify it with my comments. OK? Then let’s get going.
- I actually think I feel better about the team’s chances going into this game than I did with the Raven’s and Colts games. If the commissioner keeps his grubby hands off the game, and there aren’t any “helmet catches”, I fully expect this to be 10-17 pt win, with Pats fans able to enjoy the 4th quarter without any angst or drama. There I said it. Here is why.
- I know that these are both 2 very good teams. The best teams in the league. I know that the Seahawks probably have the best D in the league, and certainly the best back 7. They also are the team best prepared to face Gronk in terms of multiple players who can possibly defend him. So let me breakdown the Pats O vs the Seattle D first.
- First I want to make it clear, that while the Seattle D has been the best in the league by literally all metrics, I think it is very much over rated as to where they stand in the pantheon of great defenses in league history.
- This has been a very good defense that has played nothing but LIMIITED offenses over the last 10 games of the season including the playoffs. We have this discussed several times before, but it bears repeating because the mediots keep on ignoring it. They have played nothing but backups, backups to backups, rookies, and Colin Kapernick over the last 8 games. Then in the playoffs they got a mediocre Cam Newton, with a bad Panther offense, and an injured Aaron Rodgers, AT HOME, who still moved the ball very well against them.
- If you go back through their games you will find that just about every offense that was merely good, and had a better than average QB, either beat Seattle or moved the ball very well. In fact, to put this in perspective, the BEST win the Seahawks have over the last half of the year, was on the road against the Miami Dolphins. Are you really that afraid of a team who counts THAT as their signature win after September?
- In some respects a stationary Tom Brady makes some of what their defense faces a bit easier. But they also have to face a QB who is accurate, with a quick release, and as many as 5 reliable, if not great, receivers on every pattern. Most importantly we can count of Brady getting the ball to the right match up most of the time.
- There is no question that the Seattle game plan will be to stack the “box” with at least 8 players, to not only stop the run, but to also squeeze the Pats’ short passing game in the middle. To do that Seattle will use tight 4 or 5 man under zones, with a single high S
- Please don’t think of these as zones like ones we’d see from DelRio, or Wade Philipps. Most people looking at these coverages will have a hard time differentiating them from press man. At the snap most of the techniques will be the same. Part of the plan is to have it look like man in those first 2-3 seconds where Brady most often gets rid of the ball. They want EVERY one of those short passes contested, and the minimum amount of YAC to be gained. Seattle is like every good defense, in that they want every drive to take 10-14 plays, because they KNOW, that if it takes that long, the offense itself will make a mistake that will kill the drive. That is how hard it is to choreograph 11 people to get on the same page AND execute over and over again.
- What to watch from the offense: For me it will be the type of formations that the Pats choose to run and pass from. Will they pass all the time they line up in shotgun and 4 quick receivers (2TE’s/2WR’s or 4WR’s including Gronk wide) and Run all the time from 2RB heavy formations? This has been a recent tendency. OR will they run from what looks like usual throwing formations and visa versa. I would really like to see more running from what have been almost exclusively passing formations, and with Blount, not just Vareen\
- This is a key point to understand about the Seattle defense and one of the reasons for its success. Seattle probably does the least amount of package substitutions in the league. You spread them out and MAYBE they add another DB. You go heavy with 6 offensive linemen and MAYBE they add another DLman. Your formations, your motions, and alignments are NOT going to get them out of their 4 man front and 4 and 5 man unders UNLESS or until you prove you can move the ball consistently.
- That is one of the benefits of playing the same basic defensive game plan every week from the same alignments. Believe me it’s not simplistic, it is just a lot less complex than the week to week defenses the Pats utilize every week. The Pats make a lot of hay each week by confusing other team’s defenses with varied formations and personnel packages. I’m just saying it will be a lot harder to do that they week because the Seahawks simply don’t care. This isn't a team you are going to fool, its one you need to out execute.
- I’m looking for Josh to come up with some route schemes that will take into consideration what they should get from Seattle. For example, an old favorite of mine that is perfect for all the WRs depending on formation. It’s the short incut from an inside receiver, who then after taking the first 2-3 steps in, breaks it back up the seam again. Usually while this is going on, Gronk is going up the other seam taking 2-3 guys with him, leaving that other defender jumping the in cut and no one behind him. This is the pattern that could get even Welker behind the 2ndary
- This is the kind of small variation off a common Pats route scheme I’d like to see them run this week. Not only will they get good yardage, one of the most damaging thing you can do to a defense is make them lose confidence in their keys and their game plan.
- I’m not worried about the Seattle pass rush. I believe our OL is better than GB’s and GB did a good job of protecting an immobile Rodgers for most of the game. I’m confident that their 4 man rush is not going to get to Brady, especially when they won’t have the advantage playing in Seattle has to that pass rush. I’m sure it won’t be perfect either. But what I don’t expect is the constant siege kind of look we saw Brady under early in the year. A couple of sacks won’t bother me a bit as long as they are isolated incidents rather than constant pressure.