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Everybody,
I have emailed the discussion below to Florio & King and well as pasted it into the contact pages for Curran & Reiss. The media is suffering from deflategate withdrawal, but the message is probably the most important one that was not covered in the Patriots rebuttal report. I would love to see, for example, Tom Curran publish this.
Help it get out- copy & paste the entire discussion and send to anyone with a media voice that has commented on deflategate. Redundancy is fine too. It can only help someone notice. Feel free to also post it widely into comment sections everywhere. I do NOT want any credit whatsoever, as it just pieces together what others have noted already. I am a chemistry prof, but one needs only 5th grade common sense to follow.
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A few scientists have noticed an aspect of the Wells Report than has gone largely unnoticed. It relates to the testing of the “12th Patriots game ball”, which was the one intercepted by the Colts. On pages 65 & 70, Wells says that James Daniel, the NFL Director of Game Operations, tested its pressure three times with the Patriots normal pressure gauge at halftime. His readings were 11.45, 11.35 and 11.75 psi.
The range of his readings (0.4 psi) shows that the same person, using the same gauge, on the same football, seconds or minutes apart, can get readings that differ by 0.4 psi. This contradicts Exponents claims that any one gauge is very consistent from reading to reading. The take home message: you cannot trust just one pressure reading on a football to tell you about a small psi difference (<0.5 psi).
Secondly, the average of his three measurements is 11.5 (11.52, but the last digit is of course meaningless). The average of the measurements made on the 11 other footballs at halftime using the logo gauge was 11.5 as well (11.49). This suggests that the Patriots gauge reads similarly to the logo gauge. Simply put, 11.5 is much more like 11.5 (logo) than it is like 11.1 (non-logo).
We also know that the Patriots gauge reads similarly to the gauge that Walt Anderson used in pregame checks, since Anderson recalled that just 2 of the 24 Patriots game & backup balls needed adjustment, since they were already at 12.5 or 12.6 psi, where the Patriots would have set them using their gauge (Wells Report Exponent supplement page 1).
Putting these together:
1) The Patriots gauge (A) reads similarly to the logo gauge (B). A=B.
2) The Patriots gauge (A) reads and similarly to the gauge (C) that Anderson used in pregame checks. A=C.
3) Thus Anderson’s memory is correct. He had indeed used the higher-reading logo gauge in pregame checks. A=B, and A=C, thus B=C.
Point #3 above means that Wells threw out the wrong set of data! The only meaningful halftime data showed that 11 footballs, on average, were at 11.5 psi, right where the ideal gas law says that they should be (11.32-11.52 psi, according to Wells).
This answers the key question of which gauge Walt Anderson used in his pregame football pressure checks. It truly changes the overall conclusion from “tampering is a possible cause of this” to “the data indicates that no tampering happened”.
I have emailed the discussion below to Florio & King and well as pasted it into the contact pages for Curran & Reiss. The media is suffering from deflategate withdrawal, but the message is probably the most important one that was not covered in the Patriots rebuttal report. I would love to see, for example, Tom Curran publish this.
Help it get out- copy & paste the entire discussion and send to anyone with a media voice that has commented on deflategate. Redundancy is fine too. It can only help someone notice. Feel free to also post it widely into comment sections everywhere. I do NOT want any credit whatsoever, as it just pieces together what others have noted already. I am a chemistry prof, but one needs only 5th grade common sense to follow.
---------
A few scientists have noticed an aspect of the Wells Report than has gone largely unnoticed. It relates to the testing of the “12th Patriots game ball”, which was the one intercepted by the Colts. On pages 65 & 70, Wells says that James Daniel, the NFL Director of Game Operations, tested its pressure three times with the Patriots normal pressure gauge at halftime. His readings were 11.45, 11.35 and 11.75 psi.
The range of his readings (0.4 psi) shows that the same person, using the same gauge, on the same football, seconds or minutes apart, can get readings that differ by 0.4 psi. This contradicts Exponents claims that any one gauge is very consistent from reading to reading. The take home message: you cannot trust just one pressure reading on a football to tell you about a small psi difference (<0.5 psi).
Secondly, the average of his three measurements is 11.5 (11.52, but the last digit is of course meaningless). The average of the measurements made on the 11 other footballs at halftime using the logo gauge was 11.5 as well (11.49). This suggests that the Patriots gauge reads similarly to the logo gauge. Simply put, 11.5 is much more like 11.5 (logo) than it is like 11.1 (non-logo).
We also know that the Patriots gauge reads similarly to the gauge that Walt Anderson used in pregame checks, since Anderson recalled that just 2 of the 24 Patriots game & backup balls needed adjustment, since they were already at 12.5 or 12.6 psi, where the Patriots would have set them using their gauge (Wells Report Exponent supplement page 1).
Putting these together:
1) The Patriots gauge (A) reads similarly to the logo gauge (B). A=B.
2) The Patriots gauge (A) reads and similarly to the gauge (C) that Anderson used in pregame checks. A=C.
3) Thus Anderson’s memory is correct. He had indeed used the higher-reading logo gauge in pregame checks. A=B, and A=C, thus B=C.
Point #3 above means that Wells threw out the wrong set of data! The only meaningful halftime data showed that 11 footballs, on average, were at 11.5 psi, right where the ideal gas law says that they should be (11.32-11.52 psi, according to Wells).
This answers the key question of which gauge Walt Anderson used in his pregame football pressure checks. It truly changes the overall conclusion from “tampering is a possible cause of this” to “the data indicates that no tampering happened”.